江苏银行营收增长明显提速资产质量保持稳健

图3：江苏银行归母净利润同比增速归母净利润同比增速

31.31%

28.90%

24.83%

27.20%

25.21%20.00%15.00%10.00%

13.25%

10.02%10.05%10.06%10.76%

8.16%8.05%8.35%8.20%8.09%5.00%0.00%数据来源：Wind、广发证券发展研究中心图4：江苏银行单季度营业收入同比增速20.00%

16.15%

营业收入单季度额同比增速

18.55%15.00%10.00%5.00%

10.35%10.92%

6.36%

11.72%

4.25%2.88%

6.21%

9.38%

12.14%

8.41%

9.80%0.00%

-0.97% -5.00%

-7.13%-10.00%2022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q22025Q42026Q12026Q2数据来源：Wind、广发证券发展研究中心图5：江苏银行单季度利润总额同比增速40.00%

37.25%

利润总额单季度额同比增速28.09%23.54%28.09%23.54%21.14%15.26%10.99%12.61%12.93%9.00%6.86%4.13%-0.30%-7.54%-17.05%-16.00%20.00%10.00%0.00%-10.00%-20.00%2022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q22025Q42026Q12026Q2数据来源：Wind、广发证券发展研究中心图6：江苏银行单季度归母净利润同比增速归母净利润单季度额同比增速31.51%29.50%31.51%29.50%24.83%19.72%21.46%16.53%10.02%10.08%8.16%7.95%8.59%8.20%7.99%10.08%-36.77%30.00%20.00%10.00%0.00%-10.00%-20.00%-30.00%-40.00%-50.00%2022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q22025Q42026Q12026Q2数据来源：Wind、广发证券发展研究中心图7：江苏银行加权平均净资产收益率

16.55

18.20 18.08

ROE（加权年化，%）16.42 16.3315.38

16.50

15.64

16.37

15.7216.0014.0012.0010.008.006.004.002.000.00

14.79

11.49

14.52

13.59

13.14 数据来源：Wind、广发证券发展研究中心图8：江苏银行总资产同比增速30.00%25.00%20.00%

总资产同比增速

21.52%

26.99%

24.78%25.15%

17.18%15.00%

13.17%13.80%

15.35%14.77%

14.15%14.20%

15.07%

14.46%

15.60%16.12%10.00%5.00%0.00%图9：江苏银行贷款总额同比增速

15.09%14.57%14.81%

13.79%

贷款总额同比增速17.61%17.02%12.92%12.32%13.14%

16.28%

18.83%18.33%

17.84%

18.91%

14.00% 数据来源：Wind、广发证券发展研究中心图10：江苏银行存款总额同比增速存款总额同比增速25.00%21.63%21.83%21.63%21.83%19.99%16.35%15.39%17.16%16.01%14.50%13.45%13.44%13.12%11.99%12.83%10.89%9.08%15.00%10.00%5.00%0.00%图11：江苏银行不良贷款率不良贷款率（%）1.00.960.94.960.940.920.91 0.91 0.91 0.910.89 0.89 0.890.860.84 0.840.81 0.810.950.900.850.800.750.70数据来源：Wind、广发证券发展研究中心图12：江苏银行拨备覆盖率400.00

拨备覆盖率（%）360.05362.07350.00300.00250.00360.05362.07350.00300.00250.00200.00150.00100.0050.00351.03350.10343.51331.02

322.98308.36304.83-数据来源：Wind、广发证券发展研究中心2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E/）2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E 价值评估（倍） 利润表P/E 6.95 6.51 5.96 5.38 4.80 净利息收入 55,957 67,518 72,015 83,216 96,481P/B 0.90 0.82 0.74 0.66 0.60 利息收入 130,702 142,657 156,007 174,709 199,352P/PPOP 3.24 3.79 3.53 3.33 2.96 利息支出 74,746 75,139 83,992 91,493 102,871每股指标 净手续费收入 4,417 5,655 7,069 7,422 7,422EPS 1.65 1.76 1.92 2.13 2.39 净其他非息收入 20,442 14,770 16,837 15,154 14,396BVPS 12.73 14.06 15.59 17.30 19.22 营业收入 80,815 87,942 95,921 105,792 118,299PPOPPS 3.25 3.44 3.87 4.28 4.79 营业支出 39,307 46,548 45,873 50,949 56,711DPS 0.52 0.56 0.62 0.68 0.77 税金及附加 947 993 1,294 1,445 1,641股息支付率 31.52% 32.11% 32.11% 32.11% 32.11% 业务及管理费 19,983 23,451 23,213 25,390 28,392股息收益率 4.54% 4.92% 5.38% 5.96% 6.69% 营业利润 41,508 41,394 50,048 54,843 61,588驱动性因素 营业外净收入 -240 -328 -360 -396 -436贷款增长 10.7% 17.8% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 拨备前利润 59,645 63,171 71,054 78,560 87,829存款增长 12.8% 19.9% 15.0% 15.5% 15.0% 资产减值损失 18,377 22,105 21,367 24,114 26,678生息资产增长 16.0% 23.9% 15.7% 14.2% 14.2% 利润总额 41,268 41,066 49,688 54,446 61,152计息负债增长 15.3% 25.3% 15.8% 14.7% 14.5% 所得税 7,962 4,783 9,938 10,345 11,619平均贷款收益率 4.87% 4.39% 4.05% 3.95% 3.93% 净利润 33,306 36,284 39,750 44,102 49,533平均生息资产收益率 3.54% 3.21% 2.95% 2.87% 2.87% 归母净利润 31,843 34,501 37,522 41,316 46,051平均存款付息率 2.12% 1.75% 1.60% 1.50% 1.45% 资产负债表平均计息负债付息率 2.26% 1.89% 1.76% 1.66% 1.63% 贷款总额 2,095,2032,469,0612,839,4203,265,3333,755,133净息差（NIM) 1.52% 1.52% 1.36% 1.37% 1.39% 贷款减值准备 65,416 66,652 68,207 72,962 80,893净利差测算值 1.28% 1.33% 1.19% 1.21% 1.24% 贷款净额 2,038,6612,411,7112,771,2123,192,3713,674,239净手续费收入增速 3.3% 28.0% 25.0% 5.0% 0.0% 投资类资产 1,526,4701,927,8882,217,0712,549,6322,932,076净非息收入营收 30.8% 23.2% 24.9% 21.3% 18.4% 存放央行 142,275 185,383 297,818 343,980 395,577成本收入比 24.7% 26.7% 24.2% 24.0% 24.0% 同业资产 199,976 328,940 328,940 328,940 328,940拨备支出平均贷款 0.92% 0.97% 0.81% 0.79% 0.76% 其他资产 44,659 77,393 180,200 205,895 234,933业绩年增长率 资产合计 3,952,0424,931,3165,572,5276,367,1197,265,113净利息收入 6.3% 20.7% 6.7% 15.6% 15.9% 存款 2,160,6552,589,7242,978,1833,439,8013,955,771净手续费收入 3.3% 28.0% 25.0% 5.0% 0.0% 向央行借款 138,274 212,628 212,628 212,628 212,628营业收入 8.8% 8.8% 9.1% 10.3% 11.8% 同业负债 594,951 977,2941,153,2071,326,1881,525,116营业支出 11.0% 18.4% -1.5% 11.1% 11.3% 发行债券 643,080 652,948 790,067 908,5771,044,863拨备前利润 7.6% 5.9% 12.5% 10.6% 11.8% 计息负债 3,536,9604,432,5945,134,0845,887,1946,738,378利润总额 6.7% -0.5% 21.0% 9.6% 12.3% 负债合计 3,638,3834,581,7345,193,5665,955,4016,816,447净利润 11.0% 8.9% 9.6% 10.9% 12.3% 股东权益合计 313,658 349,582 378,960 411,718 448,666归母净利润 10.8% 8.3% 8.8% 10.1% 11.5% 资产质量盈利能力 不良贷款余额 18,685 20,637 23,047 26,403 30,514ROAA 0.91% 0.82% 0.76% 0.74% 0.73% 不良贷款率 0.89% 0.84% 0.81% 0.81% 0.81%ROAE 13.59% 13.14% 12.96% 12.94% 13.07% 不良净生成率 1.43% 1.22% 0.90% 0.80% 0.70%RORWA 1.36% 1.30% 1.27% 1.27% 1.29% 拨备覆盖率 350% 323% 296% 276% 265%资本状况 拨贷比 3.12% 2.70% 2.40% 2.23% 2.15%资本充足率 12.99% 12.87% 12.88% 12.89% 12.92% 流动性一级资本充足率 11.82% 11.67% 11.42% 11.20% 11.01% 存贷比 96.97% 95.34% 95.34% 94.93% 94.93%核心一级资本充足率 9.12% 8.93% 8.94% 8.95% 8.98% 贷款/总资产 53.02% 50.07% 50.95% 51.28% 51.69%加权风险资产 2,617,8182,956,8343,282,0863,643,1164,043,858 投资类资产总资产 38.62% 39.09% 39.79% 40.04% 40.36%风险加权系数 66.24% 59.96% 58.90% 57.22% 55.66% 同业资产总资产 5.0