高盛-全球半导体CHIPS系列报告4：中国半导体自给能力不断提升（摘要）-20260824

），要投入多少资本，以及推动中国半导体行业取得成功有哪些关键因号拓展（如高深宽比刻蚀机、原子层沉积设备），而且品类更加全面机、检测、量测设备。晶圆代工向7nm及以下），），支出大幅上升，但与全球龙头相比仍存在巨大差距，表明走JamesSchneider,Ph.D.AnantJakhar高盛与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资90,00080,00070,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000-(US$mn)Newvs.oldCapexold90,00080,00070,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000-25,62131,61932,20135,70744,80845,700+13%yoy51,454+10%82,233+10%+10%82,233+10%74,787+15%68,019+15%59,32444,58644,85545,12545,58045,8692020202120222023202420252026E2027E2028E2029E2030E90,00080,00070,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,00029,2051,10922,89492814,4696,8683,1042,5181,6614,0764,9492,51029,2051,10922,89492814,4696,8683,1042,5181,6614,0764,9492,510US$m36,3641,4601,4601,6129,3614,1759,36110,5197,497-2020202120222023202420252026E2027E2028E2029E2030EChips2SemiCapexChips3netaddChips4netadd50%45%40%35%30%25%20%50%45%40%35%30%25%20%50%45%40%35%30%25%20%202020252028ENauravsAppliedMaterialsSamsungSamsungCambriconvsNauravsAppliedMaterialsEmpyreanvsSynopsys202020252028E资料来源：公司数据,高盛全球投资研究部资料来源：公司数据,高盛全球图表5:China7nmandbelowsupplyvsdemandkwpm;12-inch002371.5Z688012.55ACMR688037.5568072.5560064155Prvate688√√)√鳍√√)o)√√√爸8√√2)√4√√√√√√√√√√)√2026年8月24日2026年8月24日2026年8月24日图表7:China'ssemiconductorecosystemActtInnosiliconPrivatePrivatewW有研额刻PrivateGalaxycoreChinaTAM: 2023202420252026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2031E2032E2033E2034E2035E2025-35ECAGRDemand-ChinaadvancedDemand-Chinaadvancedlogic(7nmandbelow)Totalwaferdemand,12-inchSmartphonesPCsServersIoTSmartwearablesAutomotiveelectronicsIndustrialelectronicsTelecom/Networkinginfrakwpmkwpmkwpmkwpmkwpmkwpmkwpmkwpmkwpm3015107699194246458565619127354155408301510769919424645856561912735415527650.2223043260.4527650.2223043260.456878386251914443770321212722231660.33445533670.3456473560.77811441635117941645221244785325243002444712033126360284471013282633026656224517%3%32%27%22%18%19%15%Supply-ChinaadvancedSupply-Chinaadvancedlogic(7nmandbelow)Totalwafersupply,12-inchSMICHuaHongOthersMixSMICHuaHongOtherskwpmkwpmkwpmkwpm%%%%80301168124212253373534541080301168124212253373534534815296092123151177205235266---0159152332456077112471523313844515967100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%80%80%80%79%78%75%74%73%71%70%68%66%65%0%0%0%2%6%8%9%11%13%15%17%19%20%20%20%20%20%19%18%18%18%17%17%17%16%46%43%100%43%SS/DS/Dratio-95%-95%-92%-88%-81%-67%-59%-53%-48%-45%-41%-38%-34%2026年8月24日图表9:SemiscapitalexpendituresinChina:foundryand图表9:SemiscapitalexpendituresinChina:foundryand图表10:Chinawilladd6mwpmof8''/12’’capacity“local-for-local”strategytoreducemacroimpactsmajorcontributorsgloballyacrosskeysectoHuawei,Xiaomi,OPPO,Vivo,Transsion),PC(e.g.LenXiaomi,Skyworth),andautomotive(e.g.BY302520302520502008060402080%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%80,00070,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000munitsmunits-UnitsUS$mTotallithographyimportedunitsgrowth:+9%QoQin2Q26;+36%MoMinJan-10Sep-10May-11Jan-12Sep-Jan-10Sep-10May-11Jan-12Sep-12May-13Jan-14Sep-14May-15Jan-16Sep-16May-17Jan-18Sep-18May-19Jan-20Sep-20May-21Jan-22Sep-22May-23Jan-24Sep-24May-25Jan-26Jan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21JulJan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23Apr-23Jul-23Oct-23Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25Apr-25Jul-25Oct-25Jan-26Apr-26ProductionConsumptionSelfsufficiency(RHS)TotallithographyimportedProductionConsumptionSelfsufficiency(RHS)2026年8月24日-Automaton图表15:Chineseplayerswillaccountfor31%资料来源：公司数据.高盛全球投资研究部440%45%40%40%35%39%30s%34%34%40%35%31%30%25%20%25%20%HSD%5%0%1,600,0001,400,0001,200,0001,000,000800,000600,000400,000200,0000Front-endChinarevenue(JPYmn,LHS)Chinaasa%offront-endrevenue(%,RHS)FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24FY2550%45%40%35%30%25%20%5%0%400,000350,000300,000250,000200,000150,000100,00050,0000Chinaasa%ofbackChinaasa%ofback-endrevenue(%,RHS)FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24FY2540%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%2030EBaseChinaAIChipsTAMOpportunity(US$m)65,698677,5914,122,990Training-ChinaCSPs6,25069,375418,750Training-Chinaenterprises10,523134,698841,859Inferencing-Chatbot4192,979Inferencing-Search1,3328,937Inferencing-Standardagenttask85720,934148,947Inferencing-Complexagenttask42,842428,1912,606,565Inferencing-Chartgeneration931Inferencing-Videogeneration3219,04065,164Inferencing-AIassistant42Inferencing-AIHRInferencing-AIdataanalysis210500Inferencing-AIcoding4,70113,16428,208Dailytokenconsumption(T)4894,73428,616AIchips(H800-equivalent),kunits2,62827,104164,920Bear4,500,0004,000,0003,500,0003,000,0002,500,0002,000,0001,500,0001,000,000500,000-(500,000)TotalTotalITpower(kW)3,12732,253196,254Servers/Supernodes#(kunits)3283,38820,615GPUs#perunit8CPUs#perunitComputingpowerperunit(PFLOPS,FP16)121212ComputingpowerperGPU(TFLOPS,FP16)1,5001,5001,500ComputingpowerperGPU(TFLOPS,FP8)3,0003,0003,000ITpowerperunit(kW)TDPperGPU(W)700700700Coefficient1.74,122,990677,59165,698202420252026E2027E2028E2029E2030E资料来源：公司数据,高盛全球投资研究部资料来源：高盛全球投资研究部link).localfabless)HuaweiCambriconMooreMetaXKunlunT-HHygonEnflameOtherChinesesuppliersNVIDIAOtherglobal-tiersupplierso35,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,000vat M5,000vat M--5001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000AIchipsshipment(kunits)资料来源：IDC44,672344,713455,81517100%80%80%60%Bear:+973%in2030E(oversupply)40%Base:+4%in2030E40%Bull:-83%in2030E(undersupply)20%202420252026E2027E2028E2029E2030E-20%-40%-60%-80%-100%20,00018,00016,00014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000-202420252026E2027E2028E2029E2030ESMICcapexSMIC7nm+capex%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%Dualdieshipmentcontrib46,628AnnualcapacityforAIchips(kYoYAdvancedpackagingecosystem华海清科华海清科德龙激光T深科技深科技资料来源：公司数据，高盛全球投资研究部2026年8月24日20300,000250,000200,000150,000100,00050,000-US$mUS$202420252026E2027E2028EConventionalDRAMHBMASP(RHS)86420Outside:2028EOutside:2028EInside:2025ChinaDRAMdemand:19,505mnGBin2028ESmartphoneFeaturephoneOthersPCTabletAutoAIserverHBMGeneralserverSmartphoneFeaturephoneOthers25,00020,00015,00010,0005,000-2025SmartphoneFeaturephoneTabletAutoAIserverHBMGeneralserverOthers2028Emn2025SmartphoneFeaturephoneTabletAutoAIserverHBMGeneralserverOthers2028E(vs.+34%ofChinaDOutside:2028EInside:2025contributionatChinaHBMTAMatUS$32ChinaHBMTAMatUS$32bnin2028EConventionalDRAMHBM202420252026E2027E2028E2026-28ECAGRChinademandbytype(US$m)19,29726,822113,919171,918257,31550%ConventionalDRAM17,64624,220110,046159,501225,20943%2,6013,87312,41732,105Shipment(mnGB)7,0738,0509,36512,41919,50544%ConventionalDRAM6,8377,7038,81811,20116,41936%3475471,2183,086ASP(US$/GB)3.34%ConventionalDRAM21%kwpm700600kwpm700600500400300200100CXMTcapacityuptoCXMTcapacityupto665kwpmby2030E,morethandoublecomparedto2026E(270kwpm)-202420252026E2027E2028E2029E2030EHefei1Hefei2BeijingShanghai1Shanghai2Shanghai(packaging)ConventionalDRAM(mnGB)25,00020,00015,00010,0005,000-Samsung(2028E)Hynix(2028E)SamsungHynix(2028E)Hynix(2026E)CXMT(2028E)CXMT(2026E)-5001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500HBM(mnGB)202420252026E2027E2028E2026-28ECAGRChinademandbyapplication(mnGB)7,0738,0509,36512,41919,50544%Smartphone2,9083,1713,2003,4183,655Featurephone45333-5%4565215155616119%TabletAuto3044154474868%AIserver8361,2382,5966,5293475471,2183,086Generalserver2,0902,5893,3254,26628%Other(Networking,CE,Industrial,etc)963689763744750-1%Supplybyvendors(mnGB)CXMT2,1914,1115,5367,3829,83733%Samsung13,32314,55617,46219,67423,8419,38911,63814,37316,63219,791Micron(includingElpida)7,1958,62810,85913,13415,063Supplybyvendors-HBM(mnGB)CXMT6871,179207%Samsung6045641,5032,5003,49452%7941,5502,1022,7013,96837%Supply/DemandCXMTvsChinademand-69%-49%-41%-41%-50%CXMTHBMvsChinaHBMdemand-77%-44%-62%fiercer-than-expectedmarketcomp图表38:CXMT’sNIwaterfallchart2025-30ESDRAM(synchronousdyn■Through-SiliconVias(TSVs):Thetraditionalwireinterface.Thenext-generationHBM2026年8月24日242026年8月24日25wouldslowdown.HBMhasbecovercomethekeybottleneckThrough-SiliconVia(TSV)PrecisionThrough-SiliconVia(TSV)PrecisionAnyminordefectinTSValignmemulti-diestack,destroyingtheeconomicviabilityofthe2Q26E3Q26E4Q26E20222023202420252026E2027E2028E2029E2030EIncomestatement50,80065,50089,4948,2879,08724,17861,799320,756661,563878,71440,21253,12774,34596,38625,334264,070556,549731,962913,17837,17545,13665,21684,660(3,820)(7,248)(6,024)8,422232,188497,008652,878815,48924,76230,28046,18460,147(8,328)(16,340)(7,145)361,256472,573595,020744,5112.50Margins79.2%81.1%83.1%83.8%-3.1%-1.9%41.0%82.3%84.1%83.3%82.7%82.0%73.2%68.9%72.9%73.6%-46.1%-79.8%-24.9%72.4%75.1%74.3%73.9%74.1%48.7%46.2%51.6%52.3%-100.5%-179.8%-29.6%50.3%54.6%53.8%53.9%54.4%6.0%43.0%77.8%30.5%27.4%6.8%8.0%8.0%8.0%0.0%0.0%9.0%9.5%YoY438%419%26%24%4835%25%23%2657%25%24%8507%26%25%Cashflowstatement(7,145)161,373361,255472,573595,020744,511Minorityinterestadd-back(1,906)5,26948,04589,077117,328138,566162,070Depreciationandamortizationadd-back26,35631,20933,39262,85177,96383,414(Increase)/decreaseinworkingcapital(8,262)(7,668)(24,713)(22,702)13,079(33,800)14,136Otheroperatingcashflowitems8,40710,687----Cashflowfromoperating6,89736,520215,876461,022665,832777,7491,004,131Capitalexpenditure(71,230)(49,739)(45,066)(81,275)(123,342)(99,797)(72,471)Otherinvestmentcashflowitems(1,186)(37,084)(1,500)(1,500)(1,500)(1,500)(1,500)Cashflowfrominvesting(72,415)(86,823)(46,566)(82,775)(124,842)(101,297)(73,971)Dividendsandinterestspaid(3,204)(3,077)-----Changeincommonstock4,1382,42257,919----Increase/(decrease)inshort-termdebt22,728(5,053)(3,000)(3,000)(3,000)(3,000)(3,000)Increase/(decrease)inlong-termdebt6,17122,832(1,000)(1,000)(1,000)(1,000)(1,000)Otherfinancingcashflowitems47,38128,997-----Cashflowfromfinancing 77,21446,121 53,919 (4,000) (4,000)(4,000) (4,000)Netchangeincash9,292223,230374,248536,989672,452926,160FCF(64,332)(13,219)170,811379,748542,489677,952931,660RatioCapextorevenue295%80%14%12%14%9%5%Rmbm202420252026E2027E2028E2029E2030EBalanceSheetCashandequivalents42,69951,990275,220649,4671,186,4571,858,9092,785,070Accountsreceivable1,8461,52412,53720,08828,06032,42335,113Inventory18,55028,56847,53173,30771,435106,161110,180Othercurrentassets4,92028,90428,90428,90428,90428,90428,904Currentassets68,014110,986364,192771,7671,314,8562,026,3982,959,266NetPP&E/Fixedassets153,132183,024198,629248,138310,205333,585324,169Netintangibles5,1534,2784,0673,9403,8643,8183,791Otherlong-termassets45,29938,49738,49738,49738,49738,49738,497Non-currentassets203,585225,799241,193290,576352,567375,901366,457TotalassetsAccountspayable271,5994,658 336,7856,687 605,38511,950 1,062,34322,575 1,667,42341,754 2,402,29847,044 3,325,72467,887Short-termdebt34,71229,65926,65923,65920,65917,65914,659Othercurrentliabilities17,82116,49716,49716,49716,49716,49716,497Currentliabilities57,19152,84255,10562,73178,91081,19999,043Long-termdebt95,994118,825117,825116,825115,825114,825113,825Otherlong-termliabilities14,15711,01711,01711,01711,01711,01711,017Non-currentliabilities110,151129,843128,843127,843126,843125,843124,843Totalliabilities167,342182,685183,948190,574205,752207,042223,886Commonstock57,77160,193118,112118,112118,112118,112118,112Retainedearnings(38,522)(36,650)124,723485,978958,5511,553,5712,298,082Othercommonequity22,17133,21133,21133,21133,21133,21133,211Totalcommonequity41,42056,754276,046637,3021,109,8741,704,8942,449,405Minorityinterest62,83797,346145,391234,467351,796490,362652,433Totalequity104,257154,100421,437871,7691,461,6702,195,2573,101,838BVPS0.730.984.289.5316.5925.4936.62CashconversionCashconversioncycleAccountreceivabledaynventorydays234236245210Netpayabledays66576060808585Cashconversioncycle1851891931591109584RatiosRatiosROE(commonequity)-19%4%97%79%54%42%36%ROA-3%34%43%35%29%26%Netcashpershare(Rmb)(1.56)(1.67)2.037.6115.7025.8139.72Totalliabilitiestototalassets62%54%30%18%12%9%7%DupontanalysisAssetturnover0.10.20.70.80.60.50.5Leverage(assetstoequity)6.06.22.8Netmargin-30%3%50%55%54%54%54%062026年8月24日28CompanyTickerRatingMarketcapUS$mNIYoYRevYoYOPM2026E2027E2028E2026E2027E2028E2026E2027E2028E2026E2027E2028E688825.SS547,3232288507%31%419%33%72%75%74%PeersSamsung005930.KS1,235,563643579%47%29%53%61%62%000660.KS850,748533417%40%268%42%76%79%77%Neutral944,83886239%51%43%80%83%Montage688008.SS37,1144784%30%36%51%36%41%46%48%47%Gigadevice603986.SS37,42642222%31%80%20%21%33%32%35%Longsys301308.SZNotCovered25,50225-43%-38%-3%3%8%688525.SSNotCovered223076%-40%97%214%-15%67%6%Average449,731232121845%26%25%26%42%45%48%CompanyCXMTCambriconMontageAMECTicker688825.SS688256.SS688008.SS688012.SSRating2027EPE9.968.748.558.02027-28EEPSYoY77%61%33%26%Ratio0.132.21