汇丰-汇丰2026中国年度会议：数据中心服务商GDS研究 GDS Holdings (GDS US) Buy Intact orders,awaiting catalysts

18August2026

GDSHoldings(GDSUS)

Equities

InternetSoftware&Services

Buy:Intactorders,awaitingcatalysts

China

uExpect1GWofnewbookingseachyearfrom2026/2027;HSBCeadj.EBITDAy-o-y7%/7%/23%over2026/27/28

uUnderlyingdemandstrong,withsupplycappedbypowerpermit;LLMplayerscouldbeseconddriverbesidesCSP

uRetainBuy;trimTPtoUSD50.10fromUSD51.40onlower

2027eadj.EBITDAforecast;DayOneIPOapotentialcatalyst

Ordersstrong,butaccelerationwillstartin2028:Underlyingdemandfordata

centresinChinaisbooming,drivenbygrowingAIdemand.GDSiswellpositionedto

benefitfrombothGPUandCPUdemand(currently50%/50%),givenabundant

resourcesintier-1locationsandincreasingcapacityinemergingmarketslikeInner

Mongolia.ThethreetopinternetandshortvideoclientsallgavesizableorderstoGDSin2Q26(totalordersreached263MWin2Q),andweexpectthecompanytobook

1GWoftotalnewordersin2026/2027.However,duetoconstructionandmove-in

requiringtime,eachc4quartersonaverage,adj.EBITDAgrowthshouldonly

acceleratefrom2028e.HSBCe2026/2027/2028normalisedadj.EBITDA(ex.one-offs)togrow7%/7%/23%,respectively,andwebelievethisisinthepricealready(see

what’snotinthethirdparagraph).

MSRpressured,butcashoncashyieldsupported:WethinkMSRwillcontinuetodeclineby3%in2026/27e,givencontractrenewalfrompreviouspeaks,andhigher

mixfromremotelocations(pricingc15%lowerthantier-1).However,givenlower

developmentcost,cashoncashyieldissimilarat10-11%onaverage.Wethinkyieldissupportedbypowerpermitscarcity,andcurrentdemandgrowthoutpacessupply.

WethinkGDSisbetterpositionedtoobtainpowerpermitsgivenitsconcretecustomerpipelineandestablishedtrackrecordversussmallerunlistedplayers.

What’snotintheprice?LeadingLLMplayersareconsideringleasingdatacentres

themselves,whichcouldbecomethesecondgrowthdriverbesidesinternetandshortvideocompaniesforGDS.Althoughwethinkordersfromthemwilltaketime,given

tightGPUsupply,ifresolved,itcouldbecomesecondgrowthdriverbeyond2028.In

thenearterm,wethinkapotentialre-ratingcatalystwouldbeDayOne’sIPO.GDSnowholds19.9%ofequityinterestinDayOne,valuedatUSD11.18pershareata

cUSD11bnequityvaluationforthewholecompany.ApotentialIPOdowntheroad

wouldunlockthevalue.ExcludingUSD11.18/shvaluefromDayOne,GDSistradingat10x2027eEV/adj.EBITDA.AssumingDayOneasawholeequityvalueofUSD20bn

(targetIPOvaluationreportedbyBBG),GDSistradingat8xEV/2028eadj.EBITDA.

RetainBuy,trimTPtoUSD50.10fromUSD51.40:WecontinuetovalueGDSusinganSOTP-basedapproach,addingGDS(China)andDayOnevaluations(seedetailsonpage3).WevalueDayOneusingaSeriesCfundraisingvaluation,aconservativeapproach.WithaslightlyloweradjustedEBITDAforecastfor2027,wetrimourTPtoUSD50.10fromUSD51.40.Withc44%impliedupside,wemaintainourBuyrating.

MAINTAINBUY

TARGETPRICE(USD)PREVIOUSTARGET(USD)

50.1051.40

SHAREPRICE(USD)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE

34.86+43.7%

(asof18Aug2026)

MARKETDATA

Marketcap(USDm)7,004

Marketcap(USDm)7,0043mADTV(USDm)80

Freefloat94%

BBGGDSUS

RICGDS.O

FINANCIALSANDRATIOS(CNY)

Yearto12/2025a12/2026e12/2027e12/2028e

HSBCEPS(prev)0.591.45-0.37-0.32Change(%)0.038.4-25.5-4.1

HSBCEPS0.592.01-0.46-0.33

ConsensusEPS4.654.200.560.35

PE(x)399.0117.0nmnm

EV/EBITDA(x)14.613.315.413.8

Dividendyield(%)0.00.00.00.0

ROE(%)3.610.3-2.2-1.6

53.00

39.50

26.00

52-WEEKPRICE(USD)

08/2502/2608/26

Targetprice:50.10High:47.52Low:29.02Current:34.86

Source:LSEGIBES,HSBCestimates

HelenFang*

HeadofIndustrialsResearch,AsiaPacific

TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedhelen.c.fang@.hk

+85229966942

KennethChin*,CFA

Associate,AsiaIndustrials

TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedkenneth.t.k.chin@.hk

+85228224521

BartLiu*

Associate

Guangzhou

*Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc,andisnotregistered/qualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulations

HSBC13thAnnualChinaConference|1-2September2026

Findoutmore

Disclosures&Disclaimer

ThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.

Issuerofreport:TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited

ViewHSBCGlobalInvestmentResearchat:

Equities●InternetSoftware&Services

18August2026

2

Financials&valuation:GDSHoldingsBuy

Financialstatements

AggregateNFAInservice(sqm)668,283707,573912,6721,190,865

76

8082

84

1,964

1,9051,848

1,783

Valuationdata

Yearto12/2025a

12/2026e

12/2027e

12/2028e

6.9

6.2

5.5

14.6

13.3

13.8

1.3

1.1

1.1

399.0

117.0

nm

13.3

11.1

11.2

0.7

-17.3

-20.8

0.0

0.0

0.0

*BasedonHSBCEPS(diluted)

ESGmetrics

EnvironmentalIndicators12/2024a

GHGemissionintensity*

1,012.5

Energyintensity*

5,859.7

CO2reductionpolicy

Yes

SocialIndicators

12/2024a

Employeecostsas%ofrevenuesEmployeeturnover(%)

Diversitypolicy

GovernanceIndicators

No.ofboardmembers

Averageboardtenure(years)

Femaleboardmembers(%)

Boardmembersindependence(%)

Source:Companydata,HSBC

*GHGintensityandenergyintensityaremeasuredinkgandkWhrespectivelyagainstrevenueinUSD‘000s

Issuerinformation

34.86

Freefloat

94%

50.10

Sector

InternetSoftware&Services

GDS.O

Country/Region

China

GDSUS

Analyst

HelenFang

7,004

Contact

+85229966942

Pricerelative

Yearto12/2025a12/2026e12/2027e12/2028e

Profit&losssummary(CNYm)

Revenue

11,432

12,830

14,106

18,144

EBITDA

5,403

6,026

5,898

7,263

Depreciation&amortisation

-3,459

-3,429

-3,664

-4,422

Operatingprofit/EBIT

-56

2,073

1,678

2,158

Netinterest

-1,635

-1,526

-1,787

-2,082

PBT

713

662

6

191

HSBCPBT

713

662

6

191

Taxation

246

2,523

-569

-556

Netprofit

895

3,053

-702

-504

HSBCnetprofit

895

3,053

-702

-504

Cashflowsummary(CNYm)

Cashflowfromoperations

3,365

3,157

3,257

4,188

Capex

-3,040

-11,304

-14,000

-14,000

Cashflowfrominvestment

-3,040

-11,304

-14,000

-14,000

Dividends

0

0

0

0

Changeinnetdebt

-3,290

750

10,743

9,812

FCFequity

325

-8,147

-10,743

-9,812

Balancesheetsummary(CNYm)

Intangiblefixedassets

18,549

18,774

18,774

18,774

Tangiblefixedassets

42,902

49,737

60,073

69,651

Currentassets

18,547

21,703

20,049

19,722

Cash&others

14,306

13,051

10,708

9,296

Totalassets

79,998

90,214

98,897

108,148

Operatingliabilities

3,479

3,779

4,316

5,135

Grossdebt

46,210

46,666

55,066

63,466

Netdebt

31,904

32,654

43,397

53,210

Shareholders'funds

26,840

32,171

31,907

31,929

Investedcapital

62,078

73,349

83,838

93,683

Ratio,growthand

pershare

analysis

Yearto

12/2025a

12/2026e

12/2027e

12/2028e

Y-o-y%change

Revenue

10.8

12.2

9.9

28.6

EBITDA

22.9

11.5

-2.1

23.1

Operatingprofit

-104.8

-19.1

28.6

PBT

-7.1

-99.1

3050.6

HSBCEPS

-74.2

241.0

-123.0

Ratios(%)

Revenue/IC(x)

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

ROIC

4.2

18.4

-263.6

-6.1

ROE

3.6

10.3

-2.2

-1.6

ROA

1.2

3.7

-0.6

-0.4

EBITDAmargin

47.3

47.0

41.8

40.0

Operatingprofitmargin

-0.5

16.2

11.9

11.9

EBITDA/netinterest(x)

3.3

3.9

3.3

3.5

Netdebt/equity

115.0

98.7

132.2

161.9

Netdebt/EBITDA(x)

5.9

5.4

7.4

7.3

CFfromoperations/netdebt

10.5

9.7

7.5

7.9

Persharedata(CNY)

EPSRep(diluted)

0.59

2.01

-0.46

-0.33

HSBCEPS(diluted)

0.59

2.01

-0.46

-0.33

DPS

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Bookvalue

17.65

21.16

20.98

21.00

Keyforecastdrivers

n/a 13Yes

12/2025a

11n/a18.2

45.5

Utilisationrates(%)

MSR(Rmb/Sqm/Month)

EV/sales

6.4

EV/EBITDA

15.4

EV/IC

1.1

PE*

nm

PB

11.2

FCFyield(%)

-22.8

Dividendyield(%)

0.0

Shareprice(USD)

Targetprice(USD)

RIC(Equity)

Bloomberg(Equity)

Marketcap(USDm)

Yearto12/2025a12/2026e12/2027e12/2028e

50.0040.0030.0020.0010.00

0.00

50.0040.0030.0020.0010.00

0.00

202420252026

GDSHoldingsReltoHSCEISource:HSBC

Note:Pricedatcloseof18Aug2026

Equities●InternetSoftware&Services

18August2026

3

Valuationandrisks

GDSvaluation

WecontinuetovalueGDSHoldingsusingasum-of-the-parts(SOTP)approach.

uForDayOne,weuseitsSeriesCvaluationtodetermineGDS’sequityvalueinthecompany,outofprudence.TheSeriesCvaluationimpliesGDS’s19.9%equityinterestinDayOneis

worthUSD2.2bn,orUSD11.18perGDSADS.

uForGDSmainlandChinabusiness,weuse13xforwardEV/EBITDA(unchanged)asthetargetmultiple(unchanged),toreflectmarketdiscountontheListcocombiningmature

ChinaDCs,rampingupChinaDCs,andminorityinterestinDayOne.WenotethatC-REITiscurrentlytradingatc21x2026eEV/EBITDA.WeapplyourtargetmultipletotheHSBCe2026/2027adj.EBITDAaverageandrenderanequityvalueperADSofUSD38.96

(previously:USD40.22).Wechoosetheaverageof2026and2027tobetterreflectcurrentandmedium-termgrowthpotential,giventhatmorecapacitieswillcomeonlinein2027.

ApplyingHSBCFXteam’slatest2Q27eUSD/RMBrateof6.68(previously:6.65),andaddingtheDayOneandGDSmainlandChinabusinessvaluations,wederivearoundedTPof

USD50.10(previously:USD51.40).Withc44%impliedupside,wemaintainourBuyrating.

Exhibit1:GDSHoldingsSOTPvaluation–New

DayOne(Internationalbusiness)

GDSmainlandChinabusiness

GDSHoldings

DayOneequityvalueforGDSHoldings(USDm)

2,200

Avg.2026/2027eadjustedEBITDA(RMBm)…d

5,962

GDSListcofairvalueperADS…k=x+y

USD50.10

(rounded)

DayOneequityvalueperGDSHoldingsADS(USD)…x

11.18

TargetEV/adjustedEBITDA(x)…e

EV(RMBm)…f=d*eNetdebt(RMBm)…g*

Equityvalue(RMBm)…h=f-g

NumberofADSs(mADSs)…i^

EquityvalueperADS(RMB)…j=h/iUSD/RMBFXrate**

EquityvalueperGDSHoldingsADS(USD)…y

13x

77,503

26,531

50,972

196

260

6.68

38.96

*Proformanetdebt,^BasicnumberofADSestimate,**HSBCFXteam4Q26forecast

**HSBCFXteam2Q27estimatesSource:HSBCestimates

Exhibit2:GDSHoldingsSOTPvaluation–Old

DayOne(Internationalbusiness)

GDSmainlandChinabusiness

GDSHoldings

DayOneequityvalueforGDSHoldings(USDm)

2,200

Avg.2026/2027eadjustedEBITDA(RMBm)…d

6,064

GDSListcofairvalueperADS…k=x+y

USD51.40

(rounded)

DayOneequityvalueperGDSHoldingsADS(USD)…x

11.18

TargetEV/adjustedEBITDA(x)…e

EV(RMBm)…f=d*eNetdebt(RMBm)…g*

Equityvalue(RMBm)…h=f-g

NumberofADSs(mADSs)…i^

EquityvalueperADS(RMB)…j=h/iUSD/RMBFXrate**

EquityvalueperGDSHoldingsADS(USD)…y

13x

78,838

26,659

52,179

195

267

6.65

40.22

*Proformanetdebtasof3Q25,^BasicnumberofADSestimate,**HSBCFXteam3Q26forecastSource:HSBCestimates

Equities●InternetSoftware&Services

18August2026

4

GDSHongKong-listedshare(9698HK)valuation

WederiveGDS’HongKong-listedshare(9698HK)valueusingourUS-listedshare(GDSUS)

targetpriceofUSD50.10(previouslyUSD51.40)multipliedby7.83(HSBCGlobalResearchFX

team’s2Q27eHKD-USDforecast,previouslyHSBCGlobalResearchFXteam’s4Q26eHKD-USDforecast7.80)anddividedbyeight(ADS/ordinaryshareconversionrateof1/8).OurresultingtargetpriceisHKD49.00(previouslyHKD50.10).

Exhibit3:HongKong-listedshare(9698HK)valuation

ItemOldNew

GDSUStargetprice(USD)…a

51.40

50.10

USD/HKD…b

7.80

7.83

ADS/Ordinaryshareconversion…c

8.00

8.00

GDSHoldingsfairvaluepershare(HKD)…d=(a*b)/c50.1049.00

Source:HSBCestimates

Downsiderisks

Failuretowinnewlargeordersordelayin500MWMOUorderfinalisation;slower-than-expecteddeliveryofnewcapacitiesinInnerMongolia,Ningxia,orShaoguan;aslowdowninDayOne’s

growth,causingGDSHoldingsshareholdingvalueinDayOnetodecrease;chipshortageslowingdatacentreutilisationrampuporordergrowth;slowdowninnewDCtenderbyinternetorshort-videoclients;failuretosecurefundingforcapexordebtrefinancing;andstronger-than-expectedpricecompetitiondampeningmargins.

Exhibit4:GDS–2Q26resultsversusconsensus

RMBm2Q26-actual2Q26-consensus2Q26-HSBCeversusconsensusversusHSBCe

Revenue

qoq

yoy

Grossprofit

Grossmargin

qoq

yoy

Netincome/(loss)attributabletoshareholders

AdjustedEBITDA

AdjustedEBITDAmargin

qoq

yoy

Source:VisibleAlphaconsensus,Companydata

3,088

-8.3%

6.5%

664

21.5%

-41.3%

-3.6%

803

1,406

45.5%

-27.9%

2.5%

3,141

-6.7%

8.3%

684

21.8%

-39.5%

-0.7%

(95)

1,355

43.1%

-30.5%

-1.2%

3,105

-7.8%

7.1%

691

22.3%

-38.9%

0.3%

(102)

1,333

42.9%

-31.6%

-2.9%

-1.7%

-2.9%

-2.7ppt

3.8%

24.ppt

-0.6%

-3.9%

-7.4ppt

5.5%

26.2ppt

Equities●InternetSoftware&Services

18August2026

5

Exhibit5:GDSforwardEV/EBITDAmultipleagainstmajorpeers

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Aug-21Feb-22Aug-22Feb-23Aug-23Feb-24Aug-24Feb-25Aug-25Feb-26Aug-26

GDSVNETSUNeVisionEquinixDigitalRealty

Source:LSEGDatastream,HSBCestimates

Note:SUNeVision(1686HK,CMPHKD5.08,Buy),Equinix(EQIXUS,CMPUSD1,073.78,Buy),DigitalRealtyTrustInc(DLRUS,CMPUSD197.58,Buy),VNETGroup(VNETUS,CMPUSD7.45,Buy)

Exhibit6:VNETversusGDStradingdiscount

25

20

15

10

5

0

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%

-50%

-60%

-70%

-80%

Aug-21Feb-22Aug-22Feb-23Aug-23Feb-24Aug-24Feb-25Aug-25Feb-26Aug-26

VNETdiscounttoGDS-RHSGDSforwardEV/adjustedEBITDA-LHSVNETforwardEV/adjustedEBITDA-LHSSource:LSEGDatastream,HSBCcalculation

Equities●InternetSoftware&Services

18August2026

6

Exhibit7:GDSearningsforecasts

RMBm

1Q26

2Q26

1H26

2H26e

2025

2026e

2027e

2028e

Servicerevenue

3,367

3,087

6,453

6,375

11,428

12,828

14,106

18,144

Equipmentsales

0

1

2

0

4

2

0

0

TotalNetRevenue

3,367

3,088

6,455

6,375

11,432

12,830

14,106

18,144

y-o-y

23.6%

6.5%

14.8%

9.7%

10.8%

12.2%

9.9%

28.6%

Costofrevenue

(2,236)

(2,424)

(4,659)

(5,052)

(8,847)

(9,711)

(11,246)

(14,466)

Grossprofit

1,132

664

1,796

1,323

2,585

3,119

2,860

3,678

GPmargin

33.6%

21.5%

27.8%

20.8%

Operatingexpenses

Sellingandmarketingexpenses

(37)

(32)

(69)

(97)

(149)

(166)

(191)

(246)

Generalandadministrativeexpenses

(177)

(186)

(363)

(476)

(898)

(839)

(939)

(1,208)

ResearchanddevelopmentexpensesImpairmentlossesoflong-livedassets

(10)

(7)

(17)

(24)

(33)

(41)

(52)

(66)

IncomefromoperationsOtherincome(expenses):

908

439

1,347

726

(56)

2,073

1,678

2,158

Netinterestexpenses

(380)

(367)

(747)

(780)

(1,635)

(1,526)

(1,787)

(2,082)

Foreigncurrencyexchangegain(loss),net

(1)

1

(0)

0

1

(0)

0

0

Others,net

98

18

115

0

2,402

115

115

115

Lossbeforeincometaxes

624

91

716

(53)

713

662

6

191

Shareofresultsofequitymethodinvestees

2,137

960

3,096

0

716

3,096

0

0

Incometax(expense)s/benefits

(109)

(214)

(322)

(251)

(470)

(573)

(569)

(556)

Net(loss)incomefromcontinuingoperations

2,652

838

3,490

(304)

959

3,185

(563)

(364)

Netincomefromcontinuingoperationsattributabletonon-controllinginterests

NetlossfromcontinuingoperationsattributabletoGDSHoldings

3

2

6

5

10

11

10

10

Limitedshareholders

2,649

835

3,484

(309)

950

3,175

(573)

(374)

Lossfromoperationsofdiscontinuedoperations,netofincometaxes

0

0

0

0

Gainondeconsolidationofsubsidiaries

0

0

0

0

(Loss)incomefromdiscontinuedoperations

0

0

0

0

Netlossfromdiscontinuedoperationsattributabletonon-controllinginterests

Netlossfromdiscontinuedoperationsattributabletoredeemablenon-

0

0

0

0

controllinginterest

0

0

0

0

Netlossfromdiscontinuedoperationsattributabletoredeemablenon-

controllinginterests

0

0

0

0

Net(loss)incomeattributabletoGDSHoldingsLimitedshareholders

2,649

835

3,484

(309)

950

3,175

(573)

(374)

Cumulativedividendonredeemablepreferredshares

(25)

(32)

(57)

(65)

(54)

(122)

(130)

(130)

Net(loss)incomeavailabletoGDSHoldingsLimitedordinary

shareholders

2,624

803

3,427

(374)

895

3,053

(702)

(504)

EPS

1.67

0.52

2.19

(0.18)

0.59

2.01

(0.46)

(0.33)

EarningsperADS

13.36

4.16

17.52

0

(1.46)

0

4.71

16.06

(3.69)

(2.65)

Netloss

2,652

838

3,490

(304)

959

3,185

(563)

(364)

Loss(income)fromdiscontinuedoperations

Netlossfromcontinuingoperations

2,652

838

3,490

(304)

959

3,185

(563)

(364)

Netinterestexpenses

380

367

747

780

1,635

1,526

1,787

2,082

Incometaxexpenses

109

214

322

251

470

573

569

556

Depreciation&amortisation

832

851

1,683

1,745

3,459

3,429

3,664

4,422

Operatingleasecoststoprepaidlanduserights

27

27

54

56

108

110

124

159

Accretionexpensesforassetretirementcosts

2

2

4

4

7

8

8

11

Share-basedcompensationexpenses

84

67

151

139

283

291

308

397

Shareofresultsofequitymethodinvestees

(2,137)

(960)

(3,096)

0

(716)

(3,096)

0

0

Others,net

0

0

0

0

(803)

0

0

0

AdjustedEBITDA

1,949

1,406

3,355

2,671

5,403

6,026

5,898

7,263

y-o-y

47.2%

2.5%

24.4%

-1.4%

10.8%

11.5%

-2.1%

23.1%

AdjustedEBITDAmargin

57.9%

45.5%

52.0%

41.9%

47.3%

47.0%

41.8%

40.0%

Proformaadj.EBITDA(ex.One-off)

5,134

5,496

5,898

7,263

y-o-y

7.0%

7.3%

23.1%

AdjustedEBITDA(ex.One-off)margin

42.8%

41.8%

40.0%

Source:Companydata,HSBCestimates

Equities●InternetSoftware&Services

18August2026

7

Exhibit8:GDSMWinserviceandMSRestimates

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

1Q252Q253Q25e4Q251Q262Q263Q26e4Q26e1Q27e2Q27e3Q27e4Q27e

MWinservice-LHSMonthlyServiceRevenue(MSR)(RMB/sqm/month)-RHS

2,400

2,300

2,200

2,100

2,000

1,900

1,800

1,700

1,600

Source:Companydata,HSBCestimates

Exhibit9:GDSbackloginMWandgrossadditionalpowercommittedinMW

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

-

1Q252Q253Q254Q251Q262Q263Q26e4Q26e1Q27e2Q27e3Q27e4Q27e

BackloginMW

Source:Companydata,HSBCestimates

Exhibit10:GDScapacityunder

constructionandlandreservationsinMW

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

1Q252Q253Q254Q251Q262Q26

CapacityunderconstructionLandreservationsinMW

Source:Companydata,HSBCestimates

GrossadditionalpowercommitedinMW

Exhibit11:GDScommitmentrateandpre-commitmentratebyquarter

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

1Q242Q243Q244Q241Q252Q253Q254Q251Q262Q26

Commitmentrate(%)

Pre-committementrate(%)

Blendedcommittementrate(%)Source:Companydata,HSBC

Equities●InternetSoftware&Services

18August2026

8

Exhibit12:GDSmainlandChinaIDClocationbreakdown,2Q26(sqm)

Numberofself-developedIDCsAreainserviceAreaunderconstructionTotalcapacity

Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei

56

387,163

69,150

456,313

YangtzeRiverDelta

31

194,268

51,232

245,500

GreaterBayArea

16

83,221

34,489

117,710

Chengdu-Chongqingandothers(mainlandChina)

4

20,325

15,485

35,809

Total

107

684,977

170,355

855,331

Source:Companydata

GDSearningsestimateschanges

Weraiseourrevenueforecastsexpectinglargermove-infrom2H27onwards.Welowerouradj.EBITDAforecastaswedonotexpectone-offincomein2026torepeatin2027/2028.

Exhibit13:GDS:HSBCearningsestimaterevisions

HSBCHSBC(old)HSBCvsold

RMBm20252026e2027e2028e2026e2027e2028e2026e2027e2028e

Revenue11,43212,83014,10618,14412,62613,17115,9251.6%7.1%13.9%

Grossprofit2,5853,1192,8603,6783,0722,6543,2091.5%7.7%14.6%

GPM22.6%24.3%20.3%20.3%24.3%20.2%20.1%0.ppt0.1ppt0.1ppt

Adj.EBITDA5,4036,0265,8987,2635,9906,1397,7880.6%-3.9%-6.7%

Adj.EBITDAmargin47.3%47.0%41.8%40.0%47.4%46.6%48.9%-0.5ppt-4.8ppt-8.9ppt

ProformaAdj.EBITDA(ex.One-offs)5,1345,4965,8987,263

ProformaAdj.EBITDAmargin44.9%42.8%41.8%40.0%

Source:Companydata,HSBCestimates

Exhibit14:GDS:HSBCvsconsensus

HSBCConsensusHSBCvsconsensus

RMBm20252026e2027e2028e2026e2027e2028e2026e2027e2028e

Revenue11,43212,83014,10618,14412,83714,20017,568-0.1%-0.7%3.3%

Grossprofit2,5853,1192,8603,6783,0342,7193,3822.8%5.2%8.8%

GPM22.6%24.3%20.3%20.3%23.6%19.1%19.3%0.7ppt1.1ppt1.ppt

Adj.EBITDA5,4036,0265,8987,2636,0596,3397,660-0.6%-7.0%-5.2%

Adj.EBITDAmargin47.3%47.0%41.8%40.0%47.2%44.6%43.6%-0.2ppt-2.8ppt-3.6ppt

Source:Companydata,VAConsensus,HSBCestimates

Equities●InternetSoftware&Services

18August2026

9

Disclosureappendix

AnalystCertification

Thefollowinganalyst(s),economist(s),orstrategist(s)whois(are)primarilyresponsibleforthisreport,includinganyanalyst(s)whosename(s)appear(s)asauthorofanindividualsectionorsectionsofthereportandanyanalyst(s)namedasthecoveringanalyst(s)ofasubsidiarycompanyinasum-of-the-partsvaluationcertifies(y)thattheopinion(s)onthesubjectsecurity(ies)orissuer(s),anyviewsorforecastsexpressedinthesection(s)ofwhichsuchindividual(s)is(are)namedasauthor(s),andanyotherviewsorforecastsexpressedherein,includinganyviewsexpressedonthebackpageoftheresearchreport,accuratelyreflecttheirpersonalview(s)andthatnopartoftheircompensationwas,isorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendation(s)orviewscontainedinthisresearchreport:HelenFangandKennethChin,CFA

Importantdisclosures

Equities:Stockratingsandbasisforfinancialanalysis

HSBCanditsaffiliates,includingtheissuerofthisreport(“HSBC”)believesaninvestor'sdecisiontobuyorsellastockshoulddependonindividualcircumstancessuchastheinvestor'sexistingholdings,risktoleranceandotherconsiderationsandthatinvestorsutilisevariousdisciplinesandinvestmenthorizonswhenmakinginvestmentdecisions.Ratingsshouldnotbeusedorreliedoninisolationasinvestmentadvice.Differentsecuritiesfirmsuseavarietyofratingstermsaswellasdifferentratingsystemstodescribetheirrecommendationsandthereforeinvestorsshouldcarefullyreadthedefinitionsoftheratingsusedineachresearchreport.Further,investorsshouldcarefullyreadtheentireresearchreportandnotinferitscontentsfromtheratingbecauseresearchreportscontainmorecompleteinformationconcerningtheanalysts'viewsandthebasisfortherating.

HSBCassignsratingsonthefollowingbasis:

Thetargetpriceisbasedontheanalyst’sassessmentofthestock’sactualcurrentvalue,althoughweexpectittotakesixto12monthsforthemarketpricetoreflectthis.Whenthetargetpriceismorethan20%abovethecurrentshareprice,thestockwillbeclassifiedasaBuy;whenitisbetween5%and20%abovethecurrentshareprice,thestockmaybeclassifiedasaBuyoraHold;whenitisbetween5%belowand5%abovethecurrentshareprice,thestockwillbeclassifiedasaHold;whenitisbetween5%and20%belowth