摩根大通-全球液化天然气分析：当冬季来临-Global LNG Analyzer When winter comes-20260914

J.P.Morgan

GlobalLNGAnalyzer

Whenwintercomes

●EscalationintheMiddleEast,aneffectivebreakdownoftheceasefireandthere-closureoftheStraitofHormuzhavepushedtheQatarrestartfirmlyintotheNorthernHemispherewinter.Internationalgaspriceshavethereforereachedandexceededourexpectations,withfront-monthTTFaveraging60EUR/MWhQTDandtradingnear80EUR/MWhatthetimeofwriting.

·OurbasecasestillassumestheconflictreturnstoanMoUphaseaheadoftheUSmidtermelections,allowingQatartobeginrampingexportsfromOctober,andreachingfulloperationalcapacityonlybyDecember,tighteningglobalbalancesasEuropeenterswinterwithinventoriesathistoricallows.

●Weseeasizeableriskpremiumembeddedincurrentprices,mostnotablyin2027,reflectinguncertaintyaroundQatarsupplynormalization,winterweatherrisks,andEurope'slowstorageposition.Ourlatestbalancespointto70%end-of-summerstorageinNWE+UK,thelowestonrecord.Inourview,thecombinationofthesefactorscreatessolidgroundsforpricespikesandelevatedvolatilityinwinter,withday-to-daypricingdrivenprimarilybyevolvingweatherforecastsandheightenedsensitivitytosupplydisruptions.

●However,undernormalweatherconditionsweseethe70-80EUR/MWhrangeassufficientforEuropetooutbidAsiaformarginalspotvolumesandtoincentivizegas-to-coalswitchinginthepowersector.Accordingly,wereviseour4Q26forecastto75EUR/MWh.Wethenexpectpricestomoderatein1Q27to65EUR/MWh,beforestabilizingnear40EUR/MWhinsummer2027(unchanged),wellbelowcurrentfuturespricing.

·Contrarytopopularbelief,wedonotfindastatisticallysignificantrelationshipbetweenexpected(super)EINiňoconditionsandwintertemperaturesinEuropeorAsia.Accordingly,wecontinuetouse10-yearnormalweatherassumptionsinourmodelling.

·Ourbearish2027viewislargelybasedonrisingglobalLNGsupply.Underourbasecase,whereQatarreturnstothemarket,weestimateglobalLNGsupplycouldincreasebyasmuchas70Bcmin2027(+12%YoY).Thisgrowthissupportedbytheongoingramp-upofexistingprojects,start-upofnewprojects,andthereturnofQatar(andUAE)supply.Projectsweassignhighcertaintycontribute15Bcmofincrementalsupply,withafurther11Bcmfromless-certainprojects(includingGoldenPassTrains1and2).Qataristhelargestcontributor,witha44Bcmincreaseversus2026fromexistingtrainsandafurther2BcmfromTrain1ofNFE.

·Eveninaworst-casescenario,whereQatarremainslargelyabsentfromtheglobalLNGmarketin2027andtheNFEexpansionisdelayed,westillseeglobalsupplygrowthofupto7Bcm.Inthiscase,gainsfromthesamesetofprojects(26Bcm)arepartiallyoffsetbyfurtherdeclinesinQatar(16Bcm)andUAE(2Bcm)output,concentratedmainlyinJanuaryandFebruary.

●Accordingly,wemodel2026LNGsupplyassufficientforNWEtorefilltothesame70%levelasthisyear(absentanyRussiangas),orpotentiallyto80%withareturnofRussiangas(ourbasecase,subjecttoresolutioninUkraine).TogetherwiththeoutlookforfurtherLNGsupplygrowthin2028-2029,webelievethiswouldhelpcontainsummer2027pricesnearourcurrentforecastof40EUR/MWh,wellbelowtoday'sforwardprices.

Seepage73foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures.

GlobalMarketsStrategy

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GlobalCommoditiesResearch

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(44-20)3493-8246

otar.dgebuadze@JP.MorganSecuritiesplc

GlobalLNGsupplygrowth2027

Source:WoodMackenzie,companydata,BloombergFinanceLP.,JP.MorganCommoditiesResearch

Contents

Volatilewinter,bearish2027

2

PriceForecasts

7

NWE+UKS&DBalance

7

GlobalLNGbalances

9

LNGtradematrix

12

Expotimportcapacityutilizationrates

14

Importtrendsbycountry-Asia

29

Impottrendsbycountry-Europe

38

Importtrendsbycountry-Other

48

Exporttrendsbycountry

52

Appendix1-LNGexportprojects(2025-35)

71

Appendix2-Exporlimportregions

72

2

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GlobalMarketsStrategy

14September2026

Volatilewinter,bearish2027

GlobalLNGimportsdeclinedby140Mcm/dayYoYinAugust,drivenbyweakerdemandinmatureAsianmarkets.SouthKorealedthedecline(-65Mcm/day),followedbyChina(-53Mcm/day)andJapan(-17Mcm/day).Thesereductionswerepartially

offsetbystrongerimportsinotherAsianmarkets,ledbyIndia(+33Mcm/day)andMalaysia(+14Mcm/day).EuropefinallyemergedasthepreferreddestinationforspotcargoesamidrisingspotLNGpricesandimprovingTTF/JKMnetbacks,astheregionregistereditsfirstyear-over-yearincreaseinLNGimportssinceMarch,increasingby20Mcm/day(Figure2).

Onthesupplyside,NorthAmericacontinuedtoaddmoleculestotheglobalLNGmarket.USsupplyincreasedby62Mcm/day

YoY,followedbyCanada/Mexicogrowthof32Mcm/day.Overall,sincethestartoftheconflictandthesharpreductioninMiddleEasternsupply,alternativesourceshaveoffsetaround63%ofthelostvolumes,aboveourinitialexpectationofroughlyhalf

(Figure1).Beyondnewprojectramp-ups,thisoutperformancealsoreflectsyear-over-yearrecoveriesinselectedsuppliers,includingNorway,MalaysiaandNigeria.Incenticizedbyhighspotprices,weexpectglobalLNGsupplygrowthmomentumoutsidetheMiddleEasttoremainstrongintotheyear-end.

Figure1:GlobalLNGmarketrebalancing

0

-50

-100

-150

-200

-250

-300

-103

Mcm/dayYoY,Mar-Aug2026

Intransit

-278

Qatar/UAE

NorthAmerica

Africa

Supply

RoW

Total

changein

supply

Egypt

OtherAsia

China

Dem

JKM

and

Europe

RoW

Redbarsrefertotighterbalance=lowersupply/higherdemand;Greenbarsrefertolooserbalance=highersupply/lowerdemand

Source:BloombergFinanceL.P.,J.P.MorganCommoditiesResearch

Figure2:GlobalLNGsupply/demandchanges

Mcm/dayYoY

200

100

0

-100

-200

-300

-400

Looserbalance=highersupply/lowerdemand

Tighterbalance=lowersupply/higherdemand

Qatar/UAENorthAmerica

insupply

AfricaRoWTotalchangeEgyptOtherAsiaChinaJKMEuropeRoW

Intransit

SupplyDemand

Mar-26Apr-26May-26Jun-26Jul-26Aug-26

Source:BloombergFinanceL.P.,J.P.MorganCommoditiesResearch

Weassociatetherecentpricedynamicstothere-escalationoftheMiddleEastconflictandtheeffectivere-closureoftheStraitofHormuz,whichlikelypushesthefullrecoveryofQatarproductionintotheNorthernHemispherewinter,ifnotlater.Thishas

takenpricesabove70EUR/MWh,alevelweflaggedattheonsetoftheconflictaspotentiallydemand-destructive(Thoughtsondemanddestruction,5March2026).

Asthewinterisfastapproaching,ongoinguncertaintyaroundQatarandUAEsupply,combinedwithEuropeanstoragelevelsthatareathistoricallows,isalsolikelyaddingafurtherriskpremiumtothecurrentfuturescurve(Figure3).Pricesatthefronthavenowexceeded80EUR/MWh,andSummer-2027tradesnear50-55EUR/MWh,levelsthatweviewasovervaluedrelativeto

fundamentals.WeforecastNorthwestEuropeanstorageat70%byend-October2026,whichwouldbethelowestonrecord.And,undernormalweatherconditions,weseeend-summer2027storageat24%,lowbyhistoricalstandardsbuthealthierthanthe18%observedthisyearandbroadlycomparableto26%lastwinterof2024-25(Figure4).

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Figure3:NWEgasstoragelevels(2013-26)

%full

Range2013-25

2026vs2025Avg2013-252026202520212026(JPMe)

100

80

60

40

20

0

31-Jan

28-Feb

31-Mar

30-Apr

31-May

30-Jun

31-Jul

31-Aug

30-Sep

31-Oct

30-Nov

31-Dec

-20

Source:AGSI,GIE,BloombergFinanceL.P.,J.P.MorganCommoditiesResearch

Figure4:NWEwinterstoragewithdrawalshistory

%full

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

100%

99%

99%

98%

95%

94%

95%

94%

92%

70%

46%

24%

81%

73%

72%

70%

70%

69%

61%

52%

49%

46%

45%

44%

44%

43%

37%

24%25%

54%54%

47%

24%

23%

26%

26%

91%

86%

57%

92%

56%

36%

55%

79%

76%

9%

100%

18%

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

Endindlevel(31Mar)

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

2022-23

2023-24

2024-25

2025-26

Beginninglevel(31Oct)

2026-27(F)

Withdrawals

Source:AGSI,GIE,BloombergFinanceL.P.,J.P.MorganCommoditiesResearch

Webelievethecombinationofalowerstartingstorageposition,uncertaintiesandongoingrisksaroundMiddleEasternsupply,

togetherwiththeusualweatherrisks,createsastrongsetupforelevatedvolatilityandpotentialpricespikesthiswinter.However,undernormalweatherconditions,westillseethe70-80EUR/MWhrangeashighenoughforEuropetooutbidAsiaformarginalspotcargoesandtoencouragegas-to-coalswitchinginthepowersector.Accordingly,wereviseupour4Q26forecastto75EUR/MWh,primarilydrivenbythedelayinQatarrestarttimingthatwasembeddedinourpreviousforecast.

Weexpecttheseriskstofadelaterinthewinter(again,assumingnormalweather),allowingpricestomoderatetonear65EUR/MWhin1Q27beforedecliningfurtherto40EUR/MWhinsummer2027(forecastunchanged),drivenbyrising

LNGsupplyin2027andimprovingvisibilityonadditionalvolumesexpectedin2028-29.

Wecontinuetomodelwinterheatingdemandusing10-yearnormalweather.Wefindlimitedstatisticalevidencethatapotential(super)ElNiñohasamaterialimpactonwintertemperaturesinEuropeorAsia.Thestrongestcorrelationwefindbetween

winter-monthtemperaturesinEuropeancountriesandtheENSOthree-monthrollingindexisinNovember,yetitisstillonly14-17%,hardlyahurdleforustowarrantachangeinourmodellingapproach(Figure5).CorrelationsinAsiaareevenweaker.

Chinaactuallyshowsaninvertedrelationship,andJapanandSouthKoreaseetheirstrongestcorrelationinDecember,stillonlyabout12-14%(Figure6).IfElNiñoindeedcontributestoawarmerstarttowinter,and/orbringswetter(leadingtostronger

hydropowergeneration)andwindier(leadingtostrongerwindpowergeneration)conditions,itwouldbeanadditionalbearishfactor,particularlygivencurrentmarketprices,whichweviewaselevatedonafundamentalbasis.

Figure5:TTFregionNovemberweatherandElNiño

NovemberHDDsvsENSOIndex

TTFregionNovemberHDDs

900

800

700

600

500

400

y=-26R²

.349x+621.8=0.1694

LaN

iña

ElNiño

-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.0Dec-Jan-FebENSOIndex

Source:NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration,CWG,J.P.MorganCommoditiesResearch

Figure6:JKMregionNovemberweatherandElNiño

DecemberHDDsvsENSOIndex

Japan/KoreaDecemberHDDs

900

800

700

600

500

400

.

R²

=0.141

LaNi

ña

ElNiño

y=-21897x+721.55

-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.0Dec-Jan-FebENSOIndex

Source:NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration,CWG,IMF,J.P.MorganCommoditiesResearch

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Thebearishcaseismorecompellingfrom2Q27onwardandisprimarilydrivenbyrisingLNGsupply.GlobalLNGsupplygrewbyarobust6%in2025,andevenin2026,withtheworld’ssecond-largestexporterlargelyabsentfromthemarket,weexpect

globalLNGtradetodeclinebyonly2%,supportedbyramp-upsatexistingprojects,newcapacityadditions,andhighprices

incentivizinghigherutilizationandreducedmaintenance.In2027,weseeahighlycertain15Bcmincreaseinsupplyfrom

projectsthatarealreadyoperational(CCL,LNGCanada,CongoLNG,CostaAzul)andnewprojectsweexpecttostartupandperformreliably(CP2andRioGrande).LesscertainvolumesfromGoldenPass,potentialrestartsandexpansionsinAustralia,PortArthurandtheexpectednewtraininNigeriacouldaddanother11Bcm,takingtotalsupplygrowthoutsidetheMiddleEasttoasmuchas26BcmYoY(Figure7).

Figure7:GlobalLNGsupplygrowth2027

Bcm

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

70

11

15

15

48

11

15

2025projects (CCL,Canada)

2026projects(Congo,

Mexico)

2027projects

(CP2,RioGrande)

Total

Golden

Pass

(Trains1+

2)

Australiaprojects

(Darwin,Pluto)

Other(PortArthur,Nigeria)

Total

Qatarexisting

QatarnewUAEexisting

Uncertain

Total

Maint.

Grandtotal

Highlylikely

Atrisk

Source:WoodMackenzie,companydata,BloombergFinanceL.P.,J.P.MorganCommoditiesResearch

Inourbasecase,wealsoassumeQatarreturnstothemarket,liftingoutputby44Bcmyear-over-yearfromexistingoperationaltrains(UAE+2Bcm),alongsidethefirsttrainoftheNorthFieldEastexpansionstartinginSeptember2027,whichcouldaddanother2Bcminlate2027.Afteradjustingfor4Bcmofexpectedmaintenancein2027,weestimateglobalLNGsupplycouldgrowbyupto70Bcmin2027(Figure8).Elsewhere,wehavemovedtheexpectedstartdatesoftheGabonandIndonesian

projectsto2028andremovedAltamiraLNGfromourbasecasefollowingthecorporaterestructuringofthecompany.

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Figure8:LNGsupplydecomposition(2025-27)

Bcm

Country

Project

JPMestartdate

Capacity

(Bcm/Year)

2025

Output(A)

2026

Output(F)

2027

Output(F)

2025y/y(A)

2026y/y(F)

2027y/y(F)

2026y/y(A)

%2026(A)

2025avgutil.%

2026avgutil.%

2027avgutil.%

Projectsstartedin2025

US

PlaqueminesLNGPhase1+2

Jan-25

38.4

22.8

36.5

36.5

22.8

13.6

-

13.1

96%

60%

95%

95%

US

CorpusChristiLNGStage3

Jan-25

16.4

2.9

11.2

15.6

2.9

8.3

4.4

6.3

76%

18%

68%

95%

Canada

LNGCanada

Jul-25

19.2

2.7

14.9

16.2

2.7

12.1

1.3

9.4

78%

14%

78%

85%

Russia

ArcticLNG2-Train1+2

Jul-25

18.1

1.6

6.1

6.1

1.6

4.5

-

3.5

78%

9%

34%

34%

Mauritania/Senegal

TortuePhase1FLNG

Apr-25

3.3

1.8

3.4

3.4

1.8

1.6

-

1.5

96%

55%

103%

103%

Projectsstartingin2026

Australia

DarwinRestart

Jan-26

5.1

-

2.5

3.5

-

2.5

1.1

1.3

52%

-

48%

70%

Congo

NguyaFLNG

Mar-26

3.3

-

2.0

2.6

-

2.0

0.7

1.0

51%

-

60%

80%

US

GoldenPassExport-Train1

Apr-26

8.2

-

2.4

5.4

-

2.4

3.0

0.7

30%

-

29%

66%

Mexico

CostaAzulPhase1

Sep-26

4.5

-

1.0

3.6

-

1.0

2.5

-

-

-

23%

80%

Australia

PlutoExpansion

Oct-26

6.9

-

0.7

5.8

-

0.7

5.1

-

-

-

10%

85%

Projectsstartingin2027

US

GoldenPassExport-Train2

Jun-27

8.2

-

-

1.2

-

-

1.2

-

-

-

-

14.6%

US

RioGrandeLNG-Train1

Aug-27

8.2

-

-

2.0

-

-

2.0

-

-

-

-

24.2%

US

CP2LNGPhase1+2

Sep-27

39.7

-

-

4.2

-

-

4.2

-

-

-

-

10.7%

US

PortArthurLNG-Phase1-Train1

Dec-27

8.9

-

-

0.1

-

-

0.1

-

-

-

-

1.7%

Nigeria

NLNGSeven-Train1

Sep-27

5.3

-

-

0.7

-

-

0.7

-

-

-

-

12.9%

Qatar

QatarNorthFieldEast-Train1

Sep-27

11.0

-

-

1.7

-

-

1.7

-

-

-

-

15.8%

Total2025projects

32.0

72.1

77.8

32.0

40.1

5.7

33.8

84%

Total2026projects

-

8.6

21.0

-

8.6

12.4

3.0

35%

Total2027projects

-

-

10.0

-

-

10.0

-

-

Total2025-27projects

32.0

80.7

108.8

32.0

48.7

28.1

36.8

76%

Qatar

Existing14trains

105.6

112.6

44.0

87.6

4.7

-68.6

43.7

107%

42%

83%

UAE

Existing2trainsRestoftheworld

7.7

6.3

448.0

4.6

458.0

6.7

454.0

-1.2

2.3

-1.8

10.0

2.2

-4.0

83%

59%

88%

Grandtotal

598.9

587.2

657.1

37.8

-11.7

69.9

CorpusChristiLNGstage3capacityincludespotentialdebottlenecking(2mtpaacross9midscaletrains).CP2capacityexcludesbolt-on10mtpa,whichisexpectedin2028

Source:WoodMackenzie,companydata,BloombergFinanceL.P.,J.P.MorganCommoditiesResearch

Lookingfurtherout,weestimatearound200BcmofincrementalLNGsupplyin2028-29asthelong-awaited“LNGwave”

finallyarrives.HalfofthissupplyiscomingfromtheUS(CP2,CCL8and9,RioGrande,PortArthurandGoldenPass),projectsthatarealreadyunderconstructionwithapprovalsandfinancinginplaceand,inourview,ahighlikelihoodoftimelyand

successfulstart-ups.ThesefiguresexcludePlaqueminesandCP2bolt-onexpansions(afurther22Bcm/yearcapacity),whicharestillawaitingformalapprovals(accordingtothecompany,FIDsexpectedin1H27andfirstLNGsin2028and2029).Qatar’s

expansion,arguablyatrisk,contributesto20%oftheprojected200Bcmincrease,withtheremainderofthenewsupplybeingdistributedacrossrelativelysmallerandemergingexportersincludingNigeria,MozambiqueandArgentina(Figure9).

Figure9:GlobalLNGcapacityadditions2025-35

Effectivecapacityadditions

325

300

275

250

225

Bcm/Year

200

175

150

125

100

75

50

25

-

Russia

Mozambique

CP2exp.(US)

Plaqueminesexp.(US)

CP3(US)

CoastalBend(US)

Alaska(US)

20252026202720282029203020312032203320342035Other

proposed

USUnderConstructionQatarUnderConstructionOtherUnderConstructionUSLikelyOtherLikelyUSPossibleOtherPossible

RefertoAppendix1fordetailedprojectlist

Source:WoodMackenzie,companydata,BloombergFinanceL.P.,J.P.MorganCommoditiesResearch

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Andlastly,weexpectthesupplyincreasein2027,alongsidegreatervisibilityonnewvolumesin2028-29,toreturntheEuropeanandglobalLNGmarketstoaregimewheresupplyavailability,ratherthanEuropeanstoragelevels,becomesthemaindriverofpriceformation.Thisdynamicwasalreadyvisiblein2025(excludingthe12-daywarinJune),whenpricescontinuedtodeclinedespitehistoricallylowEuropeanstorage,characterizedbydecliningvolatilityandsubduedinvestorpositioning.Thegrowing

availabilityofLNG,primarilyflexibleUS-originvolumes,reducesEurope’srelianceonstorageastheonlywinterbufferand

effectivelypositionstheUSasaglobalstoragehub,marginalsupplierandpricesetter.Lowinventoriesmaystillsupport

volatilityandshort-livedriskpremiaduringweathershocksorsupplydisruptions,buttheyshouldnolongerbesufficientontheirowntosustainstructurallyelevatedpricesoncethemarketgainsconfidencethatincrementalLNGsupplyisavailableand

deliverable,supportedbyrisingUSliquefactioncapacityandlowerutilizationrates(EuropeanNaturalGasOutlook2026/2027:AbundantUSLNGdriveslowerpricesandstorageneedsinEurope,20November2025).

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PriceForecasts

Figure10:J.P.MorganCommoditiesResearchglobalnaturalgaspriceforecasts

20232024

1Q252Q253Q254Q25

2025

1Q262Q263Q264Q26

2026

1Q272Q273Q274Q27

2027

vForecast

TTF(EUR/MWh)NBP(GBp/Therm)

65.0075.00

160.00188.00

56.42

140.20

65.0040.0040.0045.00

163.0097.0097.00113.00

47.50

117.50

JKM($/MMBtu)

22.6026.00

19.85

22.6014.6014.6015.80

16.90

TTF($/MMBtu)

22.1025.50

19.22

22.1013.6013.6015.30

16.15

NBP($/MMBtu)

21.6025.40

18.93

22.1013.1013.1015.30

15.90

TTF-JKMspread($/MMBtu)

-0.50-0.50

-0.63

-0.50-1.00-1.00-0.50

-0.75

Actual/Futurescur

TTF(EUR/MWh)NBP(GBp/Therm)

41.4734.64

102.5684.92

46.7835.6032.9730.09

114.7485.1680.5978.03

36.36

89.63

40.0345.6760.5079.32

100.85111.96147.84201.06

56.38

140.43

77.7256.4651.7950.95

199.00141.54128.33129.43

59.23

149.58

JKM($/MMBtu)

14.4711.89

14.0312.3711.8410.85

12.27

13.2117.6021.0327.10

19.74

26.9019.3618.3718.25

18.66

TTF($/MMBtu)

13.1310.97

14.4311.8411.2910.26

11.96

13.7315.5620.5726.96

19.20

26.4219.1917.6117.32

20.13

NBP($/MMBtu)

12.7410.84

14.1011.2811.0010.61

11.75

13.6615.0720.0027.20

18.98

26.9219.1517.3617.51

20.23

TTF-JKMspread($/MMBtu)

-1.34-0.91

0.40-0.53-0.55-0.58

-0.31

0.52-2.05-0.46-0.13

-0.53

-0.48-0.17-0.76-0.93

1.47

Forecastsareaveragesofthecontractmonthswithinthecalendarperiod.ActualtodatepricesasofSeptember11,2026.ActualaveragesarebasedonrealizeddailyFXrateaverages,forecastsarebasedonlatestFXspotrate.Forecastedpricesareroundedtothenearestdecimal.1MWh=3.4121MMBtu,1MMBtu=10Therm.

HenryHubpriceforecastsfromannualoutlook(Demandpullstillinformsbalances,butsupplymixmatters,24November2025).

Source:BloombergFinanceL.P.,J.P.MorganCommoditiesResearch

NWE+UKS&DBalance

Figure11:J.P.MorganCommodities2025NWE+UKnaturalgasbalance

2025F

2025F

2025F

mcm/day

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

Year

TotalSupply

644

696

698

667

605

598

602

560

530

629

692

678

679

623

564

667

633

DomesticProduction

121

123

121

122

116

118

117

101

104

120

120

117

122

119

107

119

117

Imports

523

573

577

545

489

480

485

458

426

509

572

561

558

504

456

547

516

NorthContinentalShelf

299

294

299

293

260

252

288

281

227

276

297

305

297

268

265

292

281

LNG

225

280

278

252

229

228

196

178

199

233

275

256

261

236

191

255

236

TotalDomesticConsumption

960

922

676

477

359

322

316

305

354

528

727

798

853

386

325

684

562

PowerGeneration(CCGT)

157

152

106

81

51

57

74

69

60

109

133

134

138

63

67

125

98

Residential/Commercial

605

578

398

249

168

122

108

108

159

270

426

491

527

179

125

396

307

Industrial

199

192

172

147

140

144

135

128

136

149

167

173

188

144

133

163

157

Exports

79

76

68

85

96

106

125

99

86

84

105

115

74

96

104

102

94

ImpliedStorageChange

-395

-302

-47

106

150

170

161

155

89

17

-140

-236

-248

142

135

-120

-23

Endofperiod(EoP)storagelevel(Bcm)

24

15

14

17

22

27

32

37

39

40

36

28

14

27

39

28

28

5-yearaverage(2015-2019)EoPstoragelevel(Bcm)

48

33

27

32

44

55

67

79

86

89

82

70

27

55

86

70

70

WorkingGasStorageCapacity(Bcm)

52

52

51

50

50

50

50

50

51

51

51

51

51

50

51

51

51

%Full

46%

30%

27%

34%

43%

53%

63%

73%

78%

79%

70%

56%

27%

53%

78%

56%

56%

Source:SPGlobalPlatts,ALSI,AGSI,GIE,J.P.MorganCommoditiesResearch

GlobalMarketsStrategy

14September2026

OtarDgebuadze,CFAAC(44-20)3493-8246

otar.dgebuadze@

8

Figure12:J.P.MorganCommodities2026NWE+UKnaturalgasbalance

2026F

2026F

2026F

mcm/day

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep

OctNovDec1Q2Q3Q

4QYear

TotalSupply

710715694638561570530547591

672700734706590556

702638

DomesticProduction

113120119114104109115102116

124125126117109111

125115

Imports

597595576524457461415445475

548575608589481445

577523

NorthContinentalShelf

303294294286259288303299235

288300313297278279

300288

LNG

294301282239198173112146240

260275295292203166

277235

TotalDomesticConsumption

998835621473386337294298351

516733844818399314

698557

PowerGeneration(CCGT)

17914680695571565965

951191231356560

11393

Residential/Commercial

621510375254181125101100148

268441536502187116

415305

Industrial

198179167150149141137140137

153173186181147138

170159

Exports

12495808277941059090

8581761008495

8190

ImpliedStorageChange

-413-215-78398139130159150

71-115-186-211107146

-77-9

Endofperiod(EoP)storagelevel(Bcm)

16109121519232833

35312691933

2626

5-yearaverage(2015-2019)EoPstoragelevel(Bcm)

261814172329354245

474337142945

3737

WorkingGasStorageCapacity(Bcm)

515150505050505050

505050505050

5050

%Full

31%19%19%24%30%38%46%56%65%

70%63%51%19%38%65%

51%51%

Source:SPGlobalPlatts,ALSI,AGSI,GIE,J.P.MorganCommoditiesResearch

Figure13:J.P.MorganCommodities2027NWE+UKnaturalgasbalance

2027F

2027F

2027F

mcm/day

JanFebMarAprMay