中观行业比较月报：维持均衡配置关注增量景气趋势

正文目录TOC\o"1-2"\h\z\u一、 回顾：8月科技主导市场反弹，风格偏向小微盘 3二、 景气跟踪：原油黄金煤炭农产品等周期品涨价，K型分化延续 4上游周期：大宗品价格普遍偏强，油价/金价/煤价涨幅明显，铜铝、化工品亦偏强运行 4中游制造：外需仍是景气度重要支撑，关注机器人、船舶、新能源景气变化 5TMT：AI算力硬件景气延续，半导体销售额与光模块出口维持高增，存储涨速继续放缓 7下游消费：消费行业景气度延续磨底，关注农产品价格上涨 7公用交运&地产金融：全社会用电和发电量持续增长，地产行业景气度延续磨底 8三、 估值比较：TMT及周期行业估值修复 9估值变动：多数行业估值有所修复，AI、周期行业修复幅度更明显 9估值水位：AI细分领域估值水位分化，多数周期/制造行业估值处于历史中枢附近 9四、 展望：宏观和产业均缺少有效催化，维持均衡配置以应对波动 五、 风险提示 一、回顾：8月科技主导市场反弹，风格偏向小微盘8月，全球权益市场呈格局，A88A、创业板指上涨、、。结构上，88业明显修复，涨幅在10.5%-12.5%。此外，红利、部分消费医药行业也有阶段性表现。图表A股主要指数走势 上证指数 创业板指 科创50 中证沪深300 中证红利6%4%2%0%26/07/3126/08/0326/08/0426/08/0526/08/0626/08/0726/08/1026/08/1126/08/1226/08/1326/08/1426/08/1726/08/1826/08/1926/08/2026/08/2126/08/2426/08/2526/08/2626/08/2726/08/2826/08/3126/07/3126/08/0326/08/0426/08/0526/08/0626/08/0726/08/1026/08/1126/08/1226/08/1326/08/1426/08/1726/08/1826/08/1926/08/2026/08/2126/08/2426/08/2526/08/2626/08/2726/08/2826/08/31图表申万一级行涨跌幅20 月涨跌幅（%，2026/7/1-2026/7/31） 8月涨跌幅（%，2026/8/1-2026/8/31）12.412.211.910.810.79.89.88.810 7.46.96.86.85.75.64.53.33.00-10

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家交公美食用通用容品电运事护饮器输业理料二、景气跟踪：原油/黄金/煤炭/农产品等周期品涨价，K型分化延续上游周期：大宗品价格普遍偏强，油价金价煤价涨幅明显，铜铝、化工品亦偏强运行8①石油8至90美元/86%左右的分位水平。②8至美元上涨14.2%。③8格环比全线上行，涨幅在16.4%、39.5%。图表3上游周期：8月有色金属品种价格普遍上涨大类一级行业二级行业指标环比上月同比上年年初以来近两年分位水平近两年趋势最新值、近五个月月底值2026-08-312026-072026-062026-052026-04伦敦金现（美元/盎司）伦敦金现（美元/盎司）10.0%29.0%3.0%77.3%4447.24041.24007.54538.21115.5伦敦银现（美元/盎司）15.6%67.6%-7.0%74.1%66.557.658.575.373.7 2026-08-312026-07 2026-06 2026-05 2026-04工业金属铜:期货价（万元/铜:期货价（万元/吨）3.0%37.2%10.1%99.6%10.910.610.210.510.1铝:期货价（万元/吨）1.2%15.6%5.4%81.9%2.42.42.32.42.4氧化铝:期货价（元/吨）1.9%-11.4%-3.0%7.8%2684.02635.02790.02888.02863.0锡:期货价（万元/吨）-1.1%52.1%28.6%89.0%42.042.438.942.638.3 2026-08-272026-07 2026-06 2026-05 2026-04LME铜库存（万吨）-12.8%48.3%61.2%49.2%23.424.432.538.639.9COMEX铜库存（万吨）6.1%174.3%50.8%99.5%75.171.666.664.061.1LME铝库存（万吨）-8.4%-48.7%-51.6%0.0%24.726.330.233.836.5COMEX铝库存（万吨）131.0%-80.6%-72.5%18.2%0.20.10.00.10.1期有色金属 2026-08-312026-07 2026-06 2026-05 2026-04碳酸锂:期货价（万元/吨） 14.2% 106.6% 33.0% 85.9% 16.1 14.1 15.7 18.0 18.6能源金属工业硅:期货价（万元/吨） 7.9% 4.8% -0.2% 53.7% 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9镍:期货价（万元/吨） -3.4% 5.1% -4.4% 56.4% 12.8 13.2 12.6 14.4 14.9钴:期货价（美元/吨） 0.0% 68.9% 5.5% 67.4% 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6小金属稀土价格指数-1.9% 16.5% 80.8%262.3267.4265.2小金属稀土价格指数-1.9% 16.5% 80.8%262.3267.4265.2247.9273.7锑:现货价（万元/吨）12.2% -44.5% 5.8%10.28.911.514.916.0大宗周期农化制品磷酸二铵:现货价钾肥:现货价含硫复合肥:含氯复合肥:对二甲苯(PX):精对苯二甲酸(PTA):现货价化学纤维聚酰胺大宗周期农化制品磷酸二铵:现货价钾肥:现货价含硫复合肥:含氯复合肥:对二甲苯(PX):精对苯二甲酸(PTA):现货价化学纤维聚酰胺6切片(常规纺):现货价聚对苯二甲酸乙二酯切片:现货价涤纶长丝:江浙地区市场价腈纶短纤:现货价-0.2%-2.1%-1.5%-1.4%-0.5%1.0%7.3%1.4%3.3%-0.6%24.9%-5.5%16.6%16.5%23.7%26.2%40.7%29.6%31.3%15.3%13.2%-5.5%9.0%12.4%18.2%17.5%35.7%27.5%36.0%17.9%89.8%35.4%80.0%91.8%83.0%81.3%91.8%85.3%92.5%79.1%4990.03080.03430.02917.08334.05980.013300.07750.09450.015800.05000.03145.03484.02959.08373.05920.012400.07640.09150.015900.05000.03220.03484.02907.07678.05820.011000.07120.08750.016100.04450.03245.03484.02892.08604.06250.011500.08500.09050.016100.04450.03240.03484.02872.09578.06620.013000.08850.09400.016100.0大类一级行业二级行业指标环比上月同比上年年初以来近两年分位水平近两年趋势最新值、近五个月月底值2026-08-312026-072026-062026-052026-04布伦特原油:期货价（美元/桶）2.9%34.1%48.7%85.2%90.587.973.091.1110.4NYMEXRBOB汽油:期货价（美分/加仑）-1.2%56.3%79.4%87.8%3.13.12.93.03.6石油石化NYMEX天然气:期货价（美元/百万英热）14.2%111.8%123.3%99.2%164.8144.3104.5110.8112.92026-06-302026-052026-042026-032026-02美国原油库存（百万桶）-6.3%-10.4%/0.0%731.8780.6844.7868.2850.3欧洲原油库存（百万桶）-0.9%-1.2%/21.7%421.9425.9429.7426.5422.92026-08-302026-072026-062026-052026-04焦煤:期货价（元/吨）39.5%74.3%65.0%99.6%1725.51211.01194.01147.01115.5焦炭:期货价（元/吨）16.4%35.5%37.4%99.3%2076.01758.51887.01737.51696.5焦煤:库提价:山西产（元/吨）27.8%65.8%53.4%99.3%2670.02090.0..01710.0煤炭动力煤:平仓价:秦皇岛（元/吨）6.8%27.7%29.9%99.6%881.0825.0825.0858.0811.02026-08-282026-072026-062026-052026-04库存量:炼焦煤:国内样本钢厂-3.0%-7.9%-8.7%6.2%732.9755.3781.4784.41115.5库存量:炼焦煤:国内独立焦化厂2.3%0.3%-12.6%32.7%783.3765.6861.7988.5928.22026-08-312026-072026-062026-052026-04中国化工产品价格指数3.0%22.7%24.9%86.3%4910.04768.04511.04916.05212.0聚乙烯:现货价4.3%23.9%35.6%74.9%9600.09200.08400.09900.010450.0丙烯:山东地区市场价14.2%37.2%57.8%92.3%9020.07900.07645.09110.09300.0丁二烯:现货价30.0%37.6%55.7%85.3%13000.010000.08900.011800.013100.0纯苯:现货价5.5%34.6%52.2%83.8%8020.07600.06820.07620.08520.0石油化工对二甲苯:现货价-0.5%23.7%18.2%83.0%8334.08373.07678.08604.09578.0乙二醇:现货价8.4%25.1%54.3%98.4%5680.05240.04220.04530.04900.0环氧丙烷:现货价4.6%23.1%20.4%86.8%9580.09160.07730.09760.010920.0丙烯酸:现货价7.0%28.6%37.8%77.0%7650.07150.06700.07800.010100.0丙烯酸丁酯:现货价8.5%22.8%35.9%79.0%8900.08200.06950.08550.010850.0甲醇(港口):现货价11.0%30.4%32.1%85.6%2920.02630.02770.03090.03270.0醋酸:现货价7.9%40.0%24.0%94.0%3150.02920.02880.02750.03350.0煤化工醋酸乙酯:现货价0.0%8.7%9.5%75.9%5860.05860.05670.06000.06800.0正丁醇:现货价11.6%26.2%30.5%90.4%7700.06900.06000.06900.07950.0丙烯腈:现货价1.3%42.4%56.7%93.1%11750.011600.010450.010600.011000.0橡胶天然橡胶(标准胶1#):现货价9.1%21.6%17.6%99.9%18000.016500.016700.017600.016900.0丁苯橡胶(1502):现货价10.7%17.9%26.6%62.1%14500.013100.011900.014700.016000.0沥青:华东地区市场价9.9%38.4%65.7%100.0%5120.04660.04840.04780.04490.0丙酮:现货价17.2%55.4%74.4%89.7%7150.06100.05050.07150.07300.0基础化工 苯酚:现货价-3.0%21.5%41.4%80.8%8200.08450.07700.07350.08350.0塑料聚氯乙烯:现货价0.4%-4.8%0.2%10.8%4550.04530.04400.04840.05050.0低密度聚乙烯:现货价11.9%17.4%37.0%94.4%11300.010100.09100.010380.011100.0甲醛:现货价7.9%25.7%31.7%88.6%1370.01270.01340.01380.01400.0环氧氯丙烷:现货价-5.3%-5.0%-4.9%53.6%11160.011790.010650.011180.013500.0氟化工氢氟酸:华南地区市场价2.0%42.9%29.3%99.5%15000.014700.014100.014800.013500.0二氯甲烷:华南地区市场价1.6%6.6%18.2%49.4%3250.03200.02950.03300.03400.0尿素(46%):现货价-2.5%-0.6%0.6%25.0%1740.01785.01840.01860.01895.0液氨:现货价15.7%15.5%8.0%64.2%2500.02160.02210.02260.02720.0硫磺(固态):现货价-18.2%189.6%88.0%87.8%7500.09170.09150.07420.06300.0图表上游周期：8月铁价多数上、建材种价延续回落大类一级行业二级行业指标环比上月同比上年年初以来近两年分位水平近两年趋势最新值、近五个月月底值2026-08-312026-072026-062026-052026-04铁矿石:期货价（元/铁矿石:期货价（元/吨）1.0%-7.8%-8.1%18.4%725.5718.5745.5782.5793.5螺纹钢:期货价（元/吨）4.0%0.9%0.3%51.6%3135.03013.03084.03157.03204.0不锈钢:期货价（元/吨）-4.7%9.1%6.6%70.7%13965.014660.014610.014905.015480.0钢铁线材:期货价（元/吨）4.9%3.3%-0.1%64.4%3427.03266.03368.03361.03211.0热轧卷板:期货价（元/吨）5.1%1.2%3.7%72.5%3396.03230.03311.03378.03413.02026-08-282026-072026-062026-052026-04库存量:国内主要钢材（万吨）-0.5%13.3%39.3%77.1%1185.11190.71169.11129.61214.5开工率:螺纹钢:主要钢厂-7.5%-17.7%-5.1%9.6%36.739.741.341.640.02026-08-202026-072026-062026-052026-04水泥:市场价（元/吨）-0.4%-8.6%-11.4%2.8%249.1246.4259.1257.5267.0建筑材料浮法玻璃:市场价（元/吨）-1.4%-10.8%-4.2%0.0%1084.61098.91113.51140.11176.1纯碱:现货价（元/吨）-5.9%-18.3%-15.9%0.0%1030.01060.01140.01200.01230.0混凝土:价格指数-1.4%-6.5%-3.8%0.1%87.087.888.689.489.9中游制造：外需仍是景气度重要支撑，关注机器人、船舶、新能源景气变化从板块①微跌，同比回落增31.4%且处于近两年100%7际走弱，7②③7④7高增145.8%大类一级行业二级行业指标环比上月同比上年年初以来近两年分位水平近两年趋势最新值、近五个月月底值2026-08-282026-072026-062026-052026-04大类一级行业二级行业指标环比上月同比上年年初以来近两年分位水平近两年趋势最新值、近五个月月底值2026-08-282026-072026-062026-052026-04价格指数:机械设备-0.2%-1.0%-0.1%41.5%102.5102.7102.9103.0102.32026-07-312026-062026-052026-042026-03出口金额:通用机械设备（万美元）8.4%31.4%/100.0%730553.4673789.8606774.4592616.0499805.6机械设备挖掘机械:国内销量（台）-30.2%4.1%/17.4%7608.010898.011628.016920.024101.0挖掘机械:出口销量（台）-18.1%21.2%/82.6%11913.014547.013166.011825.013301.0重卡:销量-28.0%-1.1%/30.4%83989.0116633.0109486.0116973.0138946.0工业机器人:产量-10.9%54.8%/89.5%98677.0110702.0101150.093246.091954.02026-08-262026-072026-062026-052026-04光伏级多晶硅:现货价26.1%-15.0%-18.9%69.4%5.34.24.34.64.7多晶硅片(156mm×156mm):现货价26.5%-10.4%-14.9%54.1%0.090.070.070.070.07晶硅光伏组件:现货价3.7%18.3%9.1%82.7%0.080.080.080.090.09太阳能电池:现货价22.6%22.6%-9.5%75.5%0.040.030.030.040.04光伏 2026-07-312026-06 2026-05 2026-04 2026-03光伏出口金额（亿美元）-14.3%-4.0%/26.1%21.324.922.331.245.3 2026-07-312026-06 2026-05 2026-04 2026-03国内光伏新增装机容量（万千瓦）12.8% 27.5% /34.8%1407.71248.3867.3951.9891.1国内风电新增装机容量（万千瓦）-37.8% 270.1% -77.8%73.9%844.51357.0379.1549.4472.8 2026-08-302026-07 2026-06 2026-05 2026-04中游制造

电力设备山东市场:市场价山东市场:市场价:碳酸二甲酯15.0%30.9%23.0%99.6%4600.03950.03525.03450.03650.0六氟磷酸锂:价格9.5%106.3%-36.1%79.7%115000.0105000.0105000.0120000.098500.0华南:现货平均价:电解镍(Ni9996)-2.8%4.4%-9.0%52.3%129500.0133200.0126800.0145000.0151600.0平均价:电解锰(1#):有色市场1.2%27.2%-4.0%78.5%19120.018890.019210.019040.019590.0碳酸锂(99.5%电,国产):市场价7.1%92.3%29.1%78.6%153120.0142940.0156540.0177650.0177150.0电解液(锰酸锂):市场价4.4%114.9%5.6%85.7%23750.022750.022750.021750.022250.0氢氧化锂(56.5%,国产):市场价8.3%84.2%28.2%77.8%141530.0130660.0143780.0163550.0164620.0三元材料(523):市场价-0.5%51.5%2.0%68.3%172.4173.3186.1198.2200.9钴粉(-200目,国产):市场价-7.8%36.5%-21.0%56.0%415.0450.0495.0539.5553.0四氧化三钴(≥72%,国产):市场价-6.6%32.4%-25.0%55.4%282.5302.5334.0349.0362.5华南:现货平均价:电解钴(Co99.98)-11.8%16.0%-33.0%54.2%305000.0346000.0378000.0421000.0420000.0 2026-07-312026-06 2026-05 2026-04 2026-03动力电池:装车量（兆瓦时）-2.5%33.5%/73.9%74600.076500.071900.062400.056500.0锂离子蓄电池:出口金额（亿美元）7.6%32.7%/95.7%93.586.980.379.897.52026-07-312026-062026-052026-042026-03电网基本建设投资完成额:当月（亿元）-56.4%-22.6%/0.0%312.9717.9444.5494.0533.0电网设备新增220千伏及以上变电设备容量（万千伏-81.8%-31.5%/23.8%1453.07984.01200.0942.02544.0全社会用电量:当月值（亿千瓦时）15.8%1.8%/95.5%10400.08981.08673.08204.08595.02026-07-312026-062026-052026-042026-03国防军工 新造船价格指数0.2%2.7%2.5%95.7%1138.01136.01131.01126.01120.0出口金额:船舶（亿美元）12.4%92.4%/100.0%71.663.754.848.743.22026-07-312026-062026-052026-042026-03乘用车:销量（万辆）-5.6%-0.9%/34.8%226.8240.2225.3212.9241.2乘用车乘用车:出口数量（万辆）2.5%60.0%/100.0%95.993.685.780.565.2新能源汽车:销量（万辆）-5.0%23.7%/73.9%156.1164.3149.6134.4125.2新能源汽车:出口数量（万辆）5.7%145.8%/100.0%55.352.344.643.037.1汽车 商用车商用车:销量（万辆）-22.5%3.5%/39.1%31.740.937.639.748.7商用车:出口数量（万辆）0.6%41.8%/95.7%13.413.313.013.312.8汽车用发动机:销售数量（万台）-13.5%-17.9%/4.3%148.2171.4166.3182.9230.3汽车零部件车用发动机:出口数量（万台）-5.0%-7.3%/56.5%38.040.037.039.030.0汽车零配件:出口金额（万美元）-4.1%13.8%/95.7%938348.3978145.7872394.7859906.5735013.8摩托车摩托车:出口数量（万辆）-13.5%11.5%/91.3%494.0571.0498.0441.0306.0TMT：AI算力硬件景气延续，半导体销售额与光模块出口维持高增，存储涨速继续放缓近一个月，来看：①电子6、78.8%86.2%6月、7月（+9.9%7②计算机7/7图表TMT：AI算力硬件气延，半导销售与光模出口维高增存储涨继续缓大大类一级行业二级行业 指标 环比上月同比上年年初以来近两年分位水平 近两年趋势 最新值、近五个月月底值半导体电子

2026-08-312026-07 2026-06 2026-05 指数 6.2% 1023.1%115.3% 99.9% 1003202.0944724.6859875.6718032.8673722.1DRAM:DDR3:现货平均价（美元） 5.8% 796.1% 85.1% 98.6% 53.9 51.0 46.8 41.9 39.0 2026-08-242026-07 2026-06 2026-05 2026-04NANDFlash:现货平均价（美元） 14.2% 503.0%428.4% 99.2% 37.6 34.8 31.1 24.3 19.6Wafer(512GbTLC):现货平均价（美元） 10.4% 646.8% 60.1% 91.3% 20.9 19.3 19.9 20.6 20.6 2026-06-302026-05 2026-04 2026-03 2026-02全球销售额:半导体:当月值（十亿美元） 9.7% 124.4% / 95.7% 134.5 122.5 110.5 99.5 89.2中国销售额:半导体:当月值（十亿美元） 10.4% 109.5% / 95.7% 36.1 32.7 28.9 26.7 23.72026-07-312026-06 2026-05 2026-04 2026-03TMT

通信传媒

消费电子销售均价:智能设备（元/件） -20.2% 59.2% / 82.6% 525.7 659.0 655.3 552.3 498.2销售量:智能设备（万件） -15.4% -41.5% / 8.7% 506.1 598.2 590.9 478.0 461.72026-07-312026-06 2026-05 2026-04 2026-03出口金额:光模块（亿美元） 8.8% 108.8% / 100.0% 7.7 7.1 6.8 6.2 5.0出口数量:光模块（千克） -0.2% 43.2% / 91.3% 411694.0412586.0387115.0358697.0 299335.0出口平均单价:光模块（美元/千克） 9.1% 45.8% / 100.0% 1880.3 1723.8 1758.8 1715.8 1673.72026-07-312026-06 2026-05 2026-04 2026-03销售量:品牌台机/一体机/服务器（万件） 3.2% -5.0% / 17.4% 26.4 25.6 34.7 23.8 42.7销售均价:品牌台机/一体机/服务器（元/件）-9.2% 15.9% / 91.3% 3928.6 4328.6 2816.9 4082.4 2724.4 2026-07-312026-06 2026-05 2026-04 2026-03软件业务收入（亿元） -14.4% -0.5% / 43.5% 12603.0 14731.0 15765.0 11766.0 13386.02026-08-312026-07 2026-06 2026-05 2026-04国产游戏版号发放数量（个） 8.3% 25.9% 45.1% 100.0% 209.0 193.0 163.0 154.0 147.0进口游戏版号发放数量（个） 50.0% -14.3% 100.0% 32.0% 6.0 4.0 8.0 4.0 7.0 游戏螺，易雷火U 下游消费：消费行业景气度延续磨底，关注农产品价格上涨近一个月，下游消费整体景气度磨底，农产品价格因厄尔尼诺现象影响有所上涨，后续值得持续关注。具体地：①8现相对疲软，7②7东.%。③热，8月BD图表下游消费：费行业气度续磨底农产价格上值得关注大类一级行业二级行业 指标 环比上月同比上年年初以来近两年分位水平 近两年趋

最新值、近五个月月底值2026-08-312026-07 2026-06 2026-05 2026-04平均价:生鲜乳（元/平均价:生鲜乳（元/公斤）0.0%1.3%1.0%58.0%3.063.06 3.043.033.022026-08-312026-07 2026-062026-052026-04到厂价:纱线（元/吨）1.2%10.0%9.4%100.0%21840.0.0.021400.0

市场价:生猪(外三元)（元） 4.7% -21.1% -11.5% 20.7% 10.9 10.4 9.7 9.6 9.8平均批发价:猪肉（元） 3.2% -18.1% -7.2% 23.5% 16.3 15.8 14.3 14.9 15.2平均批发价:白条鸡（元） 1.3% -0.6% -2.5% 37.7% 17.4 17.1 17.4 16.9 17.32026-08-312026-07 2026-06 2026-05 2026-04批发参考价:飞天茅台（元） -0.5% -3.7% -2.8% 0.0% 105.04 105.56 106.2 106.47 106.8 2026-08-202026-07 2026-06 2026-05 2026-04下游消费

纺织服饰家用电器轻工制造社会服务社会零售医药生物

羽绒价格:白鹅绒(90%)（元/千克） 1.3% 17.8% 10.9% 73.3% 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.5生丝:价格（元/吨） 0.4% -9.1% -6.8% 8.1% 426600.0425100.0426000.0444600.0 447300.0千足金饰品:价格（元/克） 9.0% 36.1% -0.4% 76.1% 1328.0 1218.0 1188.0 1345.0 1390.02026-07-312026-06 2026-05 2026-04 2026-03商品零售额:家电和音像器材类（亿元） -24.3% -3.3% / 38.1% 946.1 1249.5 975.0 775.7 938.0出口金额:家用电器（亿美元） -4.4% 6.6% / 69.6% 88.5 92.6 89.8 92.7 75.92026-07-312026-06 2026-05 2026-04 2026-03限上商品零售额:家具类（亿元） -17.5% -14.5% / 14.3% 145.4 176.2 150.3 133.9 149.3出口金额:家具及其零件（亿美元） -10.4% 11.2% / 47.8% 54.3 60.6 57.4 55.7 39.6限上商品零售额:文化办公用品类（亿元）-33.1% 5.4% / 23.8% 393.1 588.0 390.2 331.9 470.3出口金额:文化产品（亿美元） 1.6% -1.3% / 87.0% 130.9 128.9 106.0 100.7 75.8 2026-08-312026-07 2026-06 2026-05 2026-04出厂平均价:瓦楞纸:玖龙纸业（元/吨） 1.3% 18.5% 9.3% 95.6% 3980.0 3930.0 3830.0 3730.0 3530.02026-07-312026-06 2026-05 2026-04 2026-03社零总额:餐饮收入（亿元） -4.2% 1.4% / 42.9% 4567.2 4766.5 4605.1 4259.8 149.3浦东国际机场:旅客吞吐量（万人次） 17.6% 7.9% / 100.0% 807.2 686.4 700.5 708.4 39.6电影票房收入（亿元） 205.1% 23.4% / 82.6% 50.2 16.5 27.9 10.4 470.32026-07-312026-06 2026-05 2026-04 2026-03免税销售额（亿元） 11.3% 7.4% / 17.4% 16.8 15.1 19.6 22.2 36.22026-08-312026-07 2026-06 2026-05 2026-04中国BD交易数量（笔） 2.7% 0.0% / 87.1% 38.0 37.0 47.0 27.0 35.0中国BD交易总金额（亿美元） -53.0% 29.4% / 41.9% 60.1 128.0 158.0 271.1 44.9中国BD交易单笔金额（亿美元） -54.2% 29.4% / 32.3% 1.6 3.5 3.4 10.0 1.3 医药魔 公用交运&地产金融：全社会用电和发电量持续增长，地产行业景气度延续磨底公用交运：787100%、80%地产建筑：30积环比下降9.2%月建筑业46.9%26.0%③金融业：8A78.6%8月A16.5%图表公用建筑地金融：社会用和发量持续长，产行业气度延磨底大大类一级行业二级行业 指标 环比上月同比上年年初以来近两年分位水平 近两年趋势 最新值、近五个月月底值公用建筑、地产金融

2026-07-312026-06 2026-05 2026-04 2026-03全社会用电量（亿千瓦时） 15.8% 1.7% / 100.0% 10400.1 8981.0 8671.3 8205.2 8594.8 2026-07-312026-06 2026-05 2026-04 2026-03发电量（亿千瓦时） 14.1% 1.8% / 100.0% 9438.5 8275.6 7842.5 7439.8 8024.82026-08-312026-07 2026-06 2026-05 2026-04原油运输指数(BDTI) 7.6% 165.7%110.5% 89.0% 2777.0 2582.0 1895.0 2068.0 2767.0波罗的海干散货指数(BDI) 16.6% 57.3% 69.7% 98.2% 3186.0 2732.0 2501.0 3224.0 2686.0集运指数(欧线):期货结算价（元/吨） 10.2% 147.5% 72.2% 85.0% 3148.0 2856.0 3680.0 2999.0 1782.82026-08-312026-07 2026-06 2026-05 2026-04建筑业-0.2% -4.5% / 0.0% 46.9 47.0 49.0 48.8 2767.0建筑业新订单（%） 5.7% 4.4% / 34.8% 42.4 40.1 46.3 43.5 2686.0开工率:石油沥青装置（%） 21.8% -26.0% / 26.1% 23.1 18.9 13.8 16.3 1782.82026-08-312026-07 2026-06 2026-05 2026-0430城商品房成交面积:日均（万平方米） -9.2% -7.4% / 13.0% 19.2 21.2 28.8 25.3 23.5 2026-08-172026-07 2026-06 2026-05 2026-04二手房出售挂牌价指数:日均 -0.3% -7.7% -4.5% 0.0% 141.1 141.5 142.3 143.0 143.62026-07-312026-06 2026-05 2026-04 2026-03保