雨课堂学堂在线学堂云《Estimating ML（models Financial Impact - 俄罗斯国家研究型高等经济大学）》单元测试考核答案

EstimatingML-modelsFinancialImpact第1题CompletethestatementbelowAprojectmaybeacceptedif…ANPV>0,IRR>costofcapital,PI>1BNPV>=0,IRR>0,PI>0CNPV>=0,IRR>costofcapital,PI>0DNPV=0,IRR>costofcapital,PI>1第2题Tolaunchanewproject,acompanyinvestedUSD30mln.ofequityandtookoutaloanofUSD70mln.for3yearsata5%rate.Costofequityis10%andthetaxrateis20%.CalculatetheWACCvalueInputformat(in%):10.1____第3题Whichofthefollowingisnotavaluationprinciple?AConservatismBSignificanceCMeasurabilityDMateriality第4题Selectthemostimportantcriterioninproject/AIvaluation?AIRRBPPCPIDNPV第5题Youhave2projectswiththefollowingcashflowforecasts.CalculateNPVfortheprojectwiththehighestNPV.Assumethatthediscountrateis10%.YearProjectAProjectB0-300-30011502002100140315050Inputformat:10.1____第6题Youhave2projectswiththefollowingcashflowforecasts.WhatistheIRRfortheprojectwiththelowestNPV?Assumethatthediscountrateis10%.YearProjectAProjectB0-300-30011502002100140315050Inputformat(in%):10.1____第7题Youhave2projectswiththefollowingcashflowforecasts.WhatisthePIfortheprojectwiththehighestNPV?Assumethatthediscountrateis10%.YearProjectAProjectB0-300-30011502002100140315050Inputformat:3.25____第8题IfweknowthatsomeofthecostsandincomeswillnotsignificantlyaffecttheNPV,wedonotneedtowasteourtimetryingtomaketheirassessmentmoreaccurate.Whichprincipleisthis?AMaterialityBConservatismCObjectivityDSensitivity第9题WhatistheaveragevaluationperiodforAIinitiatives?A3yearsstartingfromtheAIsolutiondevelopmentlaunchB3yearsbutitmaytakemoreorlesstimedependingonAImodelfeaturesC5yearsstartingfromtheAIsolutiondevelopmentlaunchD5yearsbutitmaytakemoreorlesstimedependingonAImodelfeatures第10题Whichofthefollowingisnotoneofthe6basicsourcesofincome?AOperationalcostscuttingBWACCreductionCCustomersatisfactiongrowthDLiquiditymanagement第11题Whichstatementiswrong?AWeneedFCFEtousetocalculatePPandDPPBFCFEismoreessentialforbanks,companieswithprimaryequityfinancingCWithoutimplementationAIcodehasnovalue,sovaluationmustinvolvetheassessmentofchangesandcostsrequiredtodevelopandmaintainthesolutionDCannibalizationisalossinotherproductssalescausedbytheboostinsalesforthecertainproduct第12题Wehavethefollowingdataabouttheratesandcompany'smarketsensitivity:risk-freerateis2%,betais1.2,countryriskpremiumis1%,marketriskpremiumis3%.Calculatethecostofequity.Inputformat(in%):10.1____第13题WhichisessentialforcalculatingtheNPV?Pleaseselectallcorrectanswers.AFindingthediscountratedependingonthecashflowBBuildingappropriatecashflowCMakingaconservativeforecastregardingthecosts,risksandestimatedincome第14题Whichstatementiswrong?AIfthePPforprojectA<thePPforprojectB,thentheNPVforprojectAishigherBIfthePPforprojectA<thePPforprojectB,thentheNPVforprojectBishigherCIftheIRRforprojectA<theIRRforprojectB,thentheNPVforprojectAishigherDIftheIRRforprojectA<theIRRforprojectB,thentheNPVforprojectBishigherEAllabove第15题Whichofthefollowingstatementsiswrong?AIfNPVispositivethenIRRishigherthancostofequityBTheIRRismorepreferableapproachofdecisionmakingforprojectswithahighportionofexternalfinancingCBetashowsthecorrelationbetweenthecompany’sstockpricechangeandmarketchangesDCostofequityisnormallyamoreexpensivesourceoffinancingcomparingtothecostofdebt第1题Supposethetotalnumberofcreditworthyclientsis1,000.Theloanmarginis200andtheamountoflossesincaseofdefaultis600.For100clientsthecreditworthinessestimationwaswrong.Claculatethemaximumnumberoffalsepositiveclientswhenyoucanstillavoidnegativeprofits?Inputformat:integer(e.g.250)____第2题ChoosethecorrectstatementAFPandFNcanbereducedsimultaneouslybyadjustingthresholdlevelBFPandFNarepositivelycorrelatedprovidedthemodelisunchangedCFPandFNcanbereducedsimultaneouslybyimprovingthemodelDFPandFNhavezerocorrelationwhentheircostsareequal第3题ChoosethecorrectstatementABenefitcurvecantakeonlynon-negativevaluesBBenefitcurveforarandommodelcannottakevaluesabovezeroCBenefitcurveendpointsalwayshavezerovaluesDItispossiblethatregardlessofmodelqualitythefinancialbenefitisalwaysnotlessthanzero第4题CompletethestatementbelowInordertooptimizecross-sellprofitswithresponsemodeloneshould…ASortallclientsdecreasingbyresponseprobabilitywithcommunicationBSortallclientsascendingbyresponseprobabilitywithcommunicationCSortallclientsdecreasingbydifferencebetweenresponseprobabilitywithandwithoutcommunicationDSortallclientsascendingbydifferencebetweenresponseprobabilitywithandwithoutcommunication第5题Consideracreditscoringproblemwherethepositivecaseisadelinquentclient.FPandFNerrorcostsareequal,numberofpositivecasesis1,000,numberofnegativeonesis500.Supposethatwewillbeacceptingallloanapplications.Whichstatementistrueforthevalueoffinancialbenefit?AFinancialbenefitwillbebelowzeroBFinancialbenefitwillbeabovezeroCFinancialbenefitwillbeequaltozero第6题Considerabinaryclassificationresponsemodelwhichisdeployedtomaximizeprofitswhenofferingaproducttoclients.Suppose,thecallcentercanmakeonly1,000clientoffersperweek.Whichdecisionstrategyseemstobethebesthere?AEstablishcommunicationwithtop1,000clientsperweekwhicharepredictedbymodelasmostprobabletoresponseBEstablishcommunicationwithtop1,000clientsperweekwhicharepredictedbymodelasleastprobabletoresponseCEstablishcommunicationwithcertainnumberoftopclientsperweekwhicharepredictedtohavemaximumincrementinresponseduetocommunication,andtheirexpectedbenefitexceedscommunicationcostsDEstablishcommunicationwithtop1,000clientsperweekwhicharepredictedtohavemaximumincrementinresponseduetocommunication第7题Supposethetotalnumberofcreditworthyclientsis1,000.Loanmarginis100andlossamountincaseofdefaultis2,000.YourcurrentmodelshowsFP=500andFN=10.YourcolleagueofferstousedifferentmodelwhichshowsFP=100andFN=30.Whosemodelisbetterintermsoffinancialbenefit?AThecurrentmodelisbetterBYourcolleague'smodelisbetter第8题Consideracreditscoringmodelwhichaimstopredictloandefaultwhichisdenotedaspositivecase.YourmanagerisworriedaboutdisappointedclientswhowererejectedbasedonmodelpredictionsandsetsagoalforyourdepartmenttoholdFP=0.Whatisgoingtohappenifthisgoalisaccomplished?AThenumberofdefaultsisgoingtodecreaseBThenumberofdefaultsisgoingtoincreaseCTPwillbealsozeroDFNwillbealsozero第9题Supposeyouareeagertoincreaseyourloanmarketsharebyprovidingloanstoasmanyborrowersaspossible.Forsimplicity,leteachloanhaveafixedmargin100andlossgivendefault1000.Youaskyourcreditriskdepartmenttoaccepteveryloanapplication.Analystswarnyouthattheoddsofcreditworthyanduncreditworthyclientsareapproximately7:1.AItistoorisky,youwillhavenegativeprofitsBNevermind,youarestillgoingtobeprofitableandconquermarket第10题SupposeeachclienthasdifferentindividualFPandFNerrorcosts.Youareapplyingacreditscoringmodelthathasdefaultprobabilityasanoutput.Whichofthefollowingstatementsistrue?AYouhavetouseincrementdecisionschemebecauseourdecisionhasimpactonFPandFNofclientsBYouhavetousesimplethresholddecisionstrategybycalculatingoptimalthresholdprobabilityforallclientsCYouhavetobreakclientsingroupswithsimilarFPandFNerrorcostsvaluesDYouhavetousefunctionaldecisionschemeandcalculateoptimalprobabilitythresholdforeachclientQuiz3第1题Whatisamodelrisk?ADeteriorationofmodelqualityonthetestsampleincomparisonwiththetrainingBRiskofadverseconsequencesduetotheuseofmodelsinbusinessprocessesCTheriskthattheclientwillnotreturntheloanDAveragemodelerroronthetrainingsample第2题Thelogisticregressionmodelpredictsthelikelihoodofclientsgoingintodefaultandisusedintheloanapprovalprocess.Whichisnotacaseofmodelriskforsuchamodel?AUnexpectedlyhighFNerrorafterthemodeldeploymentBThequalityofanXGBoostmodelissignificantlyhigherthanthatoflogisticregression.CWemadeamistakewhileimplementingthemodel.Weusedittoperformpredictionsforadifferentclientsegmentcoparingtotrainingdata,whichledtoasharpdecreaseinthenumberofapprovedloansDModelhasshownFNerrorrateclosetotheoneattrainingstage第3题Theestimatedfinancialeffectwhenusingthecurrentmodelis100𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟.𝐻𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑟,𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑖𝑠𝑎𝑛𝑎𝑙𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑛𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑙𝑜𝑓ℎ𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦.𝑇ℎ𝑒𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑𝑓𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑡𝑠𝑢𝑠𝑒𝑖𝑠120peryearbutthismodelisnotdeployedduetosomereason.Whatisvalueofmodelriskinthiscase?Inputformat:integer(e.g.250)____第4题Howwouldyouevaluatethemodelriskduetomodelqualitydeteriorationformodelsthatareupdatedonlineusingthemostrecentdata?AZeroBAbovezero第5题Inordertoestimatetheexpectedandunexpecteddeteriorationofmodelquality,weusebootstraptobuildthemodelqualitydistribution.Theinitialsamplesize=N.Howaresamplesextractedduringbootstrap?ASamplesofthesamesizeastheoriginalareextractedwithreplacementB100samplesofsizeN/100C2samplesofsizeN/2DSamplesthatcontainN-1elementsfromtheoriginal第6题Thereisamodelqualitydistribution.Whichquantileofthisdistributionshowsusunexpectedlybadoutcome?Andwhichmetricsdoweuseforexpectedoutcome?AUnexpectedlybad⎯1%upperquantile,expected⎯meanBUnexpectedlybad⎯1%upperquantile,expected⎯1%lowerquantileCUnexpectedlybad⎯1%lowerquantile,expected⎯meanDUnexpectedlybad⎯1%lowerquantile,expected⎯1%upperquantile第7题Whatresearchneedstobedonetocalculatethemodelriskcomponentconnectedwithincorrectuseofthemodel?AWaituntilsufficientstatisticsonerroneousmodeluseisaccumulatedandestimatetheactualdamageBApplyanerroneousandcorrectedmodeltohistoricaldataandcomparethefinancialeffectestimates第8题Whiledevelopingtheresponsemodel,out-of-timesamplingwasused.ThetrainingsamplecontainsinformationaboutcommunicationsfromJanuary2019toDecember2019.Theout-of-timesamplecontainsinformationaboutcommunicationswithinJanuary2020⎯March2020andmodelqualitymetricsis3%lower.PerformthesimplestextrapolationtocalculatetheexpectedmodelqualitydecreasebyDecember2020Inputformat(in%):integer(e.g.25)____第9题Supposethatwhenmodelqualitydecreasesby1%,financialbenefitdecreasesby$10.Theexpecteddecreaseinmodelqualityis2%permonth.Whatisthesimplestestimateofmodelriskcomponentconnectedwithmodelqualitydeteriorationwithinayear?Inputformat(in$):integer(e.g.250)____第10题Suppose,amodelhasbeendevelopedanddeployedinproductionenvironment.Themodelisplannedtobeusedfor5yearswithoutupdating.Totalexpectedbenefitfromitsimplementationduring5yearsis1000.𝐻𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑟,𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑖𝑠𝑎𝑛𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑙𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑠𝑔𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑡𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑏𝑦520.Whatwillbenetexpectedbenefit,takingintoaccountthemodelrisk?Inputformat(in$):integer(e.g.250)____Quiz4第1题WhatisthemaingoalofA/Btesting?AToevaluatetheeffectofproposedimprovementinmodel,decisionrules,businessprocessorproductandtoclearitfromothermacroenvironmentalchangesBTolaunchnewdecisionrules,businessprocessesorproductsCTosearchforsimilarclientswithinclient’sbase第2题WhichofthefollowingstatementscontradictswithprinciplesofA/Btesting?AThedifferencebetweenAandBgroupsintermsofexaminedtargeteffectmustbestatisticallysignificantBTheprocessthatistestedviaA/BtestingmustreplicatetheprocessafterscalingthesolutionCThestructureandfeaturesofunitswithinanA/Btestshouldbesignificantlydifferentcomparingtoproductionenvironment第3题WhyisitsoimportanttoperformproperrandomizationforcontrolandtreatmentgroupsbeforeanA/Btest?AInordertokeep“otherthingsequal”principleBInordernottotaketoomuchriskconnectedwiththenewprocessCWeneedrandomizationonlyinasituationwherethereisnoopportunitytoperformanA/Btest第4题WhenpreparingforanA/Btestwemustspecifythemeasurabletarget.Whichofthefollowingishardlymeasurable?AAveragetime-to-marketBSalesCAverageresponserateDClient’smooduplift第5题SupposeweperformanA/Btestforourcorporateclients.Whichfactorscanbeimportanttotakeintoaccountwhenpreparingcontrolandtreatmentgroups?ACompanysizeBBusinessfieldCRegionallocationDAlltheabove第6题WhatshouldwecalculateinordertocheckforproperrandomizationbeforeanA/Btest?AMeans,mediansandvariancesforkeyfeatureswithingroupsAandBBAveragetargetlevelswithingroupsAandBCNumberofobservationswithingroupsAandB第7题Youdevelopedanewmodelthatestimatestheprobabilityofresponse.YoulaunchedanA/Btesttoverifywhetherornotyournewmodelisbetterthanthepreviousone.Youcollectedtheresponses.Whatshouldyoudonow?ACalculatetheaverageresponseratewithinclientswhichwereestimatedwiththenewmodelandrunt-testinordertocheckwhetheritissignificantlydifferentfromzeroBCalculateaveragepredictedresponsesestimatedbynewandoldmodelandrunsamplemeanstestwithnullhypothesisthataveragepredictedresponsesareequalCCalculateaverageactualresponsesseparatelyforclientsestimatedbynewandoldmodelandrunsamplemeanstestwithnullhypothesisthataverageresponsesareequal第8题Whatiscannibalization?ASituationwhenourinitiativestoboostsalesofoneproductorserviceworsenthesalesofourothercompetitiveproductsandservicesBSituationwhenourinitiativestoboostsaleshaveamaximumshort-termeffectatthebeginning(reassessmentofcustomerbase)andthendecreaseCSituationwhenclient’sbehaviormaychangebecauseoftransferringthecostofrisktotheotherparty第9题WhatdiffersWelch’st-testfromStudent’st-test?ATheformerconsiderssamplevariancestobeequalBTheformerisdesignedformultiplesamplesCTheformerconsiderssamplevariancetobesignificantlydifferentDTheformerchecksforvariancesequality,thelatterisusedtocheckformeansequality第10题WhatdiffersBarlett’stestfromF-test?ATheformerconsiderssamplevariancestobeequalBTheybothcheckforvarianceequality,buttheformerisdesignedformultiplesamplesCTheformerconsiderssamplevariancetobesignificantlydifferentDTheformerchecksforvariancesequality,thelatterisusedtocheckformeansequalityQuiz5第1题Supposeyouareimplementinganewmodelwithinthecreditscoringprocess.Whichsourcesofbiascantakeplacewhencollectinghistoricaldatatotrainthemodel?AHistoricaldataisalwaysrepresentative.BThedatayoupossesscontainsinformationonlyaboutclientswhoweregrantedaloanbasedonapreviouslyusedmodel.第2题Whichattributeofrejectedclientsincreditscoring(ortheclientswithnocommunicationinamarketingcampaign)istypicallyunobservable?AInitialfeaturesusedtobuildmodelpredictionsBTargetvariable(defaultorresponseevent)riable(defaultorresponseevent)CModelpredictioncannotbecalculatedforsuchclients第3题HowcanA/Btestinghandletheproblemofbiasedhistoricaldata?ARandomizedcontrolgroupinA/Btestingallowsonetoobservebehaviorof,otherwise,rejectedclientsBA/BtestingimpliesmeasurabletargetCEvaluatingA/Btestresultsinvolveshypothesisstatisticaltestingwhicheliminatesthebias第4题Whenisitimpossibletorunacontrolgroup?AErrorcostsaretooexpensiveBLegislationdoesnotallowtodiscriminateclientsCT-infrastructureispoorDlltheabove第5题WhyisitimportanttoassignweighttoobservationswhenrunningacontrolgroupandrestoringFPandFNerrorratesforthewholeclientbase?ABecausewearenotsureaboutmeasurementaccuracyforsomeobservationsBBecauseusuallyacontrolgroupisarelativelysmallportionofclientsCBecausewewanttofocusonobservationswithhighermodelerrormore第6题Whatcanwesayaboutrejectinferenceasamethod?AItismathematicallyproventhatrejectinferenceallowstofullyrestoreinformationaboutrejectedclientsBUsingthismethodcanhelpustoextractsomeinformationaboutrejectedclien