内存芯片紧缺状况为何超出预期紧缺局面或将持续至 2029 年才会缓解

Whythememorychipcrunchisgreaterthanexpected,andmaynoteaseuntil2029

Recordcomputermemorychipsales,surgingcapitalexpenditure,andsteeppricingarelikelytoextendtheshortage,reshapingbudgetsfordatacenters,enterprises,and

consumers

Article•5-minread•28July2026•DeloitteCenterforTechnologyMedia&Telecommunications

AIdemandhasdrivenmemorychippricestounprecedentedlevelsin2026.Forinstance,costsforAIserverdynamicrandom-accessmemory(DRAM)roughlydoubledduringthefirst

quarterof2026,

1

withanexpectedfourfoldincreaseforthefullyear.

2

Althoughmemorychipmakersareincreasingtheircapitalexpendituretoaddcapacity,thatnewsupplyisn’texpectedtocomeonlineuntil2029or2030.

3

Asaresult,enterprisesthatneedmemorychipsmayneedtopaymoreandwaitlongertogetthesescarcebutvitalproducts.

Therearestepsexecutivesinthesemiconductoranddatacenterindustrycantakenowtohelpnavigatethischallengingandfast-changingenvironment.

Pricesareup,marginsarebeingsqueezed,andunitsalesarefalling

Memorychipindustryinsidersandmarketanalystsarecallingthisscarcity-drivensurgeinchipprices“RAMageddon.”

4

RAMageddonlookslikelytolastandcouldevengetworse

beforeitgetsbetter.Thosemostlikelytobeaffectedarehyperscalers,integratedserverandstorageoriginalequipmentmanufacturers(OEMs),neoclouds,andbothAIandnon-AIdatacenteroperators.Consumersandenterprisesalsoarelikelytofeeltheeffectsofhigherpricesfordevicesandelectronicsrangingfrompersonalcomputers(PCs)andsmartphonesto

telecommunicationsgear.

Deloitteanticipatesthethreelargestmemoryplayersmayincreasetheircombinedcapex

nearly340%between2024and2027(figure1)tokeeppacewiththegrowingdemandfor

memorychips.

5

Andmemorycapexcouldconstituteroughlyhalfofthetotalchipindustry

capexin2026.

6

Butthathigherspendingisn’texpectedtoincreasesupplyorreducepricesby

muchinthenextyearortwo,sinceitoftentakesthreetofiveyearstobuildmemoryfabricationfacilitiesandscaleupproduction.

AIhyperscalers’massiveinvestmentsaredrivingasurgeinmemorysalesandcapex

InresponsetomassivedemandforAItokensforbothtrainingandinference,Deloitteexpectshyperscalers’capexspendingtoexceedUS$1trillionin2026,morethandoubleofwhattheyplannedinJanuary2026.

7

AmongthetypesofchipsneededforAIdatacentersarememory

chips,includinghigh-bandwidthmemory(HBM),high-capacityDRAM,andenterprisesolid-statedrives(SSDs).Hyperscalersareprojectedtospendroughly30%oftheir2026datacenterinvestmentsonmemory,andthatsharewilllikelyreach36%in2027.

8

Inaddition,memoryconstitutesroughlyone-fourthoftotalAIserverracks’billofmaterials,accordingtoDeloitte’sanalysisofthiscategoryforselecthigh-endAIserverracksystems.

9

So,itmaybenosurprisethatmemorysalesareforecasttoexceed$1trillionin2027,upfrom$230billionin2025.

10

Memoryproductpricesandexpectationsforthefirstandsecondquartersof2026suggestthattherobustmemorysalesgrowthforecastmainlyreflectshigheraveragesellingpricesas

volumeincreasesinbitshipmentshavebeenlow.

11

Moreover,memoryvendorsare

increasinglyreallocatingtheirstandardDRAMandNANDmemorycapacitytoAIdatacentermemorysuchasHBMandenterpriseSSDs.

12

Beyondmemory,AIisdrivingdemandforvarioustypesofchipsandrelatedsolutions:

leading-edgelogic;CoWoSpackaging;substrates;extremeultraviolet(EUV)tools;and

advancedetch,deposition,metrology,andhigh-endtestequipment.

13

Inresponsetothe

demandforAIchips,semiconductorcompaniesacrossthevaluechainarelikelytoincreasetheircapexspendingin2026and2027.

14

Oneimportantquestion:Isthisalonger-termmemorysupercycleinwhichdemandandpricesstayhighformanyyears,orashorter-termboom-then-bustcycle?ServersarethesinglelargestcostiteminanAIdatacenter,representingabout60%oftheestimated$38billionrequiredtobuildatypicalone-gigawattfacility.

15

Asserverpricesriseduetothesharpincreasein

memorycosts,thecostpermegawatttobuildanAIdatacentermayfacemeaningfulupwardpressure.

16

ConsiderationsforexecutivesinthebroaderAIsemiconductoranddatacenterindustry

Giventhiscontext,howshouldsemiconductoranddatacenterleadersmoveforwardinthenextthreetosixmonths?Herearethreenear-termstrategicstepsexecutivescanconsiderinordertohelpnavigatethiscomplexlandscapeandbolstertheirlong-termcompetitive

position.

1.Takeadeliberateapproachtoplacingorders.Memorycostshavehistoricallybeen

highlycyclical,withnewdemanddrivingpricesmuchhigherfor12to18months.

17

Butthecurrentcyclediffersbecausebuildingnew,advancedmemorycapacitytakeslongerandcostsmore.

18

Therefore,themarketislikelytobeinfluxforthenexttwotofour

years.Companiesshouldworktoensurethatreturnoninvestmentremainssustainableatthesehighlyinflatedchipprices,especiallyformemory.Todoso,companiesshouldconsiderbeingdeliberatewhenplacingorders,enteringlong-termforwardcontractsformemorysolutionstosecurebothcapacityandpricing,andidentifypotentialalternativesourcingpartners.

2.Beselectiveinidentifyingandinvestinginmemorytechnologies.MemorycapexisgoingtotechnologymigrationssuchasEUVlithographyandDRAMtools,HBMstandards

suchasHBM4andHBM4E,hybridbonding,andadvancedpackaging,apartfrom

overallcapacityincreases.

19

Theseinvestmentsaretargetedathighlyspecialized,

complexareasthatsupportthebroaderAIinfrastructure-drivenshift.Memorychip

producersshouldconsiderabalancedapproach,selectivelyidentifyingandinvestinginnewordistincttypesofmemorytechnologiessuchaslanguageprocessingunits,on-chipstaticrandom-accessmemory,andnear-memorycomputingarchitecture,basedonwhattheybelieveisstrategicfromalong-termperspective.

3.Performproactiveandpredictivedemand-supplyscenarioplanningandimpactanalysis.Thecurrentmemorysupplytightnessandelevatedpricesmaypersistuntil2029oreven2030,assumingcontinueddemandamonghyperscalersformemorychips.Other

customersthatneedmemoryfordevicessuchasPCs,smartphones,andotherconsumerelectronics,aswellasfornon-AIdatacenters,willlikelyalsoneedtocontendwithhighmemoryprices.

20

Therefore,itwillbeimportanttoperformdynamicandongoing

ENDNOTES

1.TrendForce,“

Rapidcontractpricesurgedrives1Q26DRAMindustryup81%QoQ,

saysTrendForce

,”pressrelease,June1,2026.

2.TrendForce,“

WinbondexpectsDRAMpricestojumpnearly4xbyJune2026;

capacitybookedthrough2027

,”Feb.11,2026.

3.NidhiSingal,“

Billionsareflowingintomemoryfabs.Whychippriceswon’tcool

anytimesoon

,”BusinessToday,July6,2026.

4.LoriGrunin,“

TechcompaniesarefreakingoutaboutRAMageddon

,”CNet,May7,2026.

5.Deloitteanalysisandextrapolationsbasedondataandanalysisfrompubliclylistedchipcompanies’reportedfinancialdata.

6.Ibid.

7.Deloitteanalysisbasedonannouncedcapexspendingplansofmajorhyperscale

cloudproviders.Thebigfourhyperscalersalonehaveincreasedtheircapexspendtoanestimated$725billionin2026,mainlyonAIdatacenterchipsandrelated

hardwareequipmentandinfrastructure.Toreadfurther,seeEllenThomas,“

One

chartrevealshowBigTechisspendingupto$725billioninanAIarmsrace

,”

BusinessInsider,April30,2026.

8.SemiAnalysis,“

Memory’sshareofhyperscalercapex

,”LinkedIn,April2026.

9.InformationbasedonMorganStanleydatapublishedandcitedbythird-party

industrysources,includingTom’sHardwareandWccftech;articlespublishedinMay2026.

10.WorldSemiconductorTradeStatistics,“

Globalsemiconductormarketsurgesbeyond

USD1.5trillionin2026drivenbyextraordinarymemoryexpansion

,”June2,2026.

11.DeloitteanalysisbasedonmemoryproductpricingtrendspublishedbyTrendForce,aswellasmemorychipmakers’earningsannouncementsbetweenAprilandMay

2026.Toreadfurther,see:TrendForce,“

AIserverdemandtodrivememorycontract

priceincreasesin2Q26asCSPssecuresupplyvialong-termagreements

,”March31,2026;TrendForce,“

Rapidcontractpricesurgedrives1Q26DRAMindustryup81%

QoQ,saysTrendForce

,”June1,2026.

12.TrendForce,“

AIserverdemandtodrivememorycontractpriceincreasesin2Q26as

CSPssecuresupplyvialong-termagreements

.”

13.Deloitteanalysisofmajorchipcompanies’latestearningsannouncementsandbriefingsreleasedbetweenMarchandJune2026.

14.Deloitteanalysisof15majorsemiconductorcompaniesacrossmultiplesegments,

includingfoundries,integrateddevicemanufacturers,memory,packaging,and

outsourcedsemiconductorassemblyandtest(OSAT).Dataandinformationsourcedfrompubliclyannouncedearningsreports,USSecuritiesandExchangeCommissionfilings,andfinancialresources(includingYahoo!FinanceandN)in2026.Extrapolationsfor2026and2027basedoncompanies’mostrecentquarterly

earningsannouncements(asofJuly10,2026),aswellasprioryears’capexspendingasapercentageofoverallrevenues.

15.AmeliaMichaelandBenCottier,“

Serversaccountfor60%ofthetotalcostof

ownershipofaone-gigawattAIdatacenter

,”EpochAI,May14,2026.

16.Dell’OroGroup,“

AIinfrastructurebuildoutsandmemorycostinflationdrovedata

centercapexhigherin1Q2026,accordingtoDell’OroGroup

,”June10,2026.

17.DylanPateletal,“

Memorymania:Howaonce-in-four-decadesshortageisfuelinga

memoryboom

,”SemiAnaly