在日益动荡的世界中绘制全球能源趋势图 2026年《世界能源统计年鉴》第75版解读

DivθrgθntanddisordθrIy:

Ma卩卩inggIobaIθnθrgytrθndsinanincrθasingIyvoIatiIθworId

75thedition—Insightsfromthe2026

StatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy

KPMG.MaketheDifference.

Introduction

InsightsfromtheStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy2026

DrawingontheEnergyInstitute’s

2026

StatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy

,this

reportexamineshowglobalenergysystemsareevolvinginanincreasinglyfragmented

anduncertaingeopoliticalenvironment.A

disorderlyenergytransitionisunderway,withenergyleadershavingtonavigatedivergent

trendsindifferentgeographies.

Risingdemand,geopoliticalfragmentation,and

intensifyingcompetitionforenergyandindustrial

advantagearereshapingglobalenergyoutcomesata

pacethatdecarbonizationambitionsalonehavenotbeenabletodictate.Theresultisgreaterdiversificationacrossenergysources,increasingdivergencebetweenregions,andunevenprogressbyfueltypeandtechnology.

Energytrendsarebestunderstoodthroughthelensofafragmentedandregionallydriventransition,ratherthanasingle,globallycoordinatedenergytransition.Instead,geopolitics,energysecurity,andcontinueddemand

growthhavebecometheprimaryanchorsoftheglobalenergynarrative.

AcrossbothOECDandemergingeconomies,

policymakersareincreasinglyprioritizinggrowth,affordability,andsecurity,reshapinginvestmentdecisionsacrossallenergysources.

Againstthisbackdrop,globalenergydemandrose

by1.7percentin2025,withallformsofenergy

growingsimultaneously—acontinuedillustrationof

thescaleofglobalenergyappetite.Theconsequence

issimultaneousgrowthacrossmultipleenergy

technologies,clearerregionalwinnersandlosers,and

emissionstrendsthataredeviatingsignificantlyfromtheParis-alignedpathways.

Note:Thisreportincludesforward-lookingstatements,includingourfutureprojectionsandopinions,basedoncurrentassumptions,whichareinherentlyuncertainandsubjecttochange.

©2026CopyrightownedbyoneormoreoftheKPMGInternationalentities.KPMGInternationalentitiesprovidenoservicestoclients.Allrightsreserved.Divergentanddisorderly:Mappingglobalenergytrendsinanincreasinglyvolatileworld|2

©202CopyrightownedbyoneormoreoftheKPMGInternationalentities.KPMGInternationalentitiesprovidenoservicestoclients.Allrightsreserved.Divergentanddisorderly:Mappingglobalenergytrendsinanincreasinglyvolatileworld|3

Theyearinninekeythemes:

06

Electricitygrowth

superchargesahead

07

Thepaceofadisorderlyenergy

transition:Winners,slowmovers,

thesolarandstoragesurge

08

Coaldemandremainssteadyas

energysecurityconcernsincrease

09

Globalemissionscontinueto

rise,withonlylimitedprogresson

energyefficiency

01

Aneweraofvolatilityand

divergence

02

Globalreaction:Arebalancingof

thetrilemma

03

Gasmarkets:Shiftingfromglobal

optimizationtosecurity-driven

04

Thecenterofgravityofglobaloil

supplyisshiftingtotheAmericas

05

Criticalmineralsemergeasa

strategicchokepoint

Whatdoesthismeanforyour

business?

•Rebuildyourenergystrategyfromthegroundupandmakeit

regional,notglobal

•Makeenergyresilienceafinancialpriority,notjustan

operationalone

•Mapyoursupplychainbeyondthefirsttier

•Investinthetechnologieswithcommercialmomentum

•Makeyourtransitionplandefensibleanddeliverable

Clickoneachthemetoreadmore

Anewera

Globalreaction

Gasmarkets

Oilsupply

Criticalminerals

Electricitygrowth

Disorderly

energytransition

Coaldemand

Global

emissions

Conclusion:Implications

forbusinesses

HowKPMG

canhelp

Theme01

Aneweraof

volatilityanddivergence

Energyshocksareanincreasinglyregularfeatureof

theglobalenergysystem.Compoundinggeopolitical,

supply,andmarketdisruptionsoverthepastdecade

haveintroducedmorefrequentsupplyandpriceshocks,exposingthevulnerabilitiesofenergyimport-dependenteconomies.Thesechallengesarenotnew.Previous

criseshaverevealedsimilarstructuralweaknessesand

theimportanceofenergysecuritytoensuringnational

security.Theseexamplesoffercriticalcontextandlessonsaspolicymakersonceagainconfrontthevulnerabilities

©2026CopyrightownedbyoneormoreoftheKPMGInternationalentities.KPMGInternationalentitiesprovidenoservicestoclients.Allrightsreserved.Divergentanddisorderly:Mappingglobalenergytrendsinanincreasinglyvolatileworld|4

andrisksoftheirenergysystems.

Anewera

Globalreaction

Gasmarkets

Oilsupply

Criticalminerals

Electricitygrowth

Disorderly

energytransition

Coaldemand

Global

emissions

Conclusion:Implications

forbusinesses

HowKPMG

canhelp

OPECembargo(1973)

ArabOrganizationofthePetroleumExportingCountries(OPEC)producerscutoilsupplyinresponsetotheYomKippurWar,

triggeringsevereshortagesandasharpspikeinoilpricesthatexposedimportdependence.

Iranianrevolution(1979)

PoliticalupheavalinIrandisruptedoilproductionandexports,

drivingasecondmajoroilpricesurgeamidfearsofwiderMiddleEastinstability.

Globalfinancialcrisis(2008)

Oilpricespeakedinmid2008amidtightsupplyandstrong

demand,beforecollapsingastheglobalfinancialcrisistriggeredasharpcontractionineconomicactivity.

COVID-19pandemic(2020)

Globallockdownscausedanunprecedentedcollapseinoil

demand,brieflypushingpricestohistoriclowsasstoragefilledandmarketsseizedup.

RussiainvadesUkraine(2022)

Russia’sinvasionofUkraineraisedfearsofmajorsupply

disruptions,drivingarapidspikeinoilpricesandheightenedvolatilityamidsanctionsandtradere-routing.

Iranconflict(2026)

Escalatingmilitarytensions,disruptiontoshippingintheStraitofHormuz,anddamagetoseveralenergyfacilitiestriggeredasharpfallinavailablesupplyandasignificantpricespike.

Crudeoilprice,adjustedforinflation(US$2025)

Note:

•1970–1983ArabianLightpostedatRasTanura.

•1984–2025Brentdated.

•2026annualestimatebasedonyear-to-dateaveragedatedBrentandBloombergFair

ValueFutures(asofJune2026).Convertedto2025US$usingtheConsumerPriceIndexfortheUS.

Price

160

120

80

40

USShaleBoom

(US$2025)

Iranian

Ukraineconflict

revolution

OPEC

embargo·

FirstGulfWar

.

Global

financialcrisis

·Iran

.."conflictCOVID-19

0

1970198019902000201020202030Source:

S&PGlobalInc,©2026

BloombergFairValue:EuropeanCrudeBrentFutures,BloombergL.P.,2026

©2026CopyrightownedbyoneormoreoftheKPMGInternationalentities.KPMGInternationalentitiesprovidenoservicestoclients.Allrightsreserved.Divergentanddisorderly:Mappingglobalenergytrendsinanincreasinglyvolatileworld|5

CrudeOilDatedBrentFOBNWE,Bloomberg.P.,2026

Historicalprecedents:

Previouscriseshavehighlightedtheimportanceofboth

demand-andsupply-sidemeasurestoimprovingenergy

resilience.Short-termemergencymeasurestoreduce

immediatedemandandprotectconsumers,coupledwithdurableandstructuralefficiencymeasures,haveformed

akeypartinreducingcountries’energyintensityand

vulnerabilitytosupplyrisks.Supply-sidemeasuresto

diversifyenergysources,suppliersandinfrastructurehavethenprovidedlonger-termsolutionstoimprovingresilience.

Approachestoimplementingthesemeasureshavedifferedaccordingtotheresourcesandnationalprioritiesofdifferentcountries.Theoilcrisesofthe1970sprompteddistinct

nationalresponses.Franceexpandednuclearcapacityto

securedomesticsupply,whileJapanprioritizedefficiency

anddiversification.TheUnitedStatesundertookaprogramofefficiencyanddemand-sidemeasures,includingprice

controls,rationing,speedlimits,andfuelefficiencystandards,alongsideintroducingastrategicoilreserveandunlocking

domesticsourcesofenergy.Eachexampleonthenextpagedemonstratesdifferentpathwaystoachieveresilience.

Today’sshocksareoccurringinadifferentglobalcontext

andenergysystem.Technologyadvancessuchaselectric

vehiclesandtheelectrificationofheatallowcountriesto

electrifyfurtherandboostenergyefficiency.Coupledwithrenewablesandotherdomesticsourcesofpower,thesecansignificantlyreducerelianceoninternationalenergyflows.

Today’sshocksarealsounfoldinginamorefragmented,

geopoliticallychargedworld.Nationalresponseswilldivergeaccordingtolocalcontextandpriorities,whereenergy

securityisincreasinglyasovereigncalculation,shapedbygeography,industrialstrategyandpoliticalpriorities.

©2026CopyrightownedbyoneormoreoftheKPMGInternationalentities.KPMGInternationalentitiesprovidenoservicestoclients.Allrightsreserved.Divergentanddisorderly:Mappingglobalenergytrendsinanincreasinglyvolatileworld|6

Anewera

Globalreaction

Gasmarkets

Oilsupply

Criticalminerals

Electricitygrowth

Disorderly

energytransition

Coaldemand

Global

emissions

Conclusion:Implications

forbusinesses

HowKPMG

canhelp

Europe’sgasreconfiguration

USenergymarkettransformation

China’shedgingstrategyincludingcoal

•Context:Europeentered2022withhighdependenceonRussianpipelinegas,leavingitsenergysystemexposedtogeopoliticaldisruptionandsupplyrisk.

•Response:FollowingRussia’sinvasionofUkraine,

Europerapidlyreconfigureditsgassystem,fast-trackingLNGimportterminals,mandatinghighergasstorage

levelsandinterveningdirectlyinenergymarketsto

secureindustrialcontinuityandprotectconsumers.

Pipelineimportsfromnon-Europeancountriesfellfrom

232.7bcmin2021to96.4bcmin2025(58.6percent),whileLNGimportsroseby61.9percentoverthesameperiod,withtheUnitedStatesandNorwayemergingaskeyalternativesuppliers.1

•Context:Inlate2021,Chinaexperiencedwidespreadpowershortagesasdemandreboundedsharply

post-Covid.Atthesametime,risingimportdependencehadmadeChinatheworld’slargestLNGimporter,

increasingexposuretoglobalgasmarkets.

•Response:Despitehighergasimports,gasremained

marginalinChina’spowermix,allowingpolicymakerstorespondtotheshockbycurbingLNGexposureandfallingbackoncoal.Thegovernmentrapidlyincreaseddomesticcoalproduction,expandedcoalstockpiles,andformally

positionedcoalasa“supportingandregulating”resourcetostabilisethesystemandbackstoprenewables.

apan’sfueldiversification

J

•Context:Japanenteredthe1970salmostentirelydependentonimportedoil,witharound

80percentofsuppliessourcedfromtheMiddleEast.

•Response:Followingtheoilcrises,Japanpursuedanaggressivestrategycenteredon

energyefficiencyandfueldiversification.Strategicoilreserveswereestablished,targeting

ninetydaysofnationalconsumption,alongsidepoliciestopromotealternativeenergysourcessuchasnaturalgas,coalandnuclearpower.Inparallel,Japanreshapeditsindustrialbase,

shiftingawayfromenergy-intensiveheavyindustrytowardshigher-valuesectorssuchaselectronics,precisionmachineryandadvancedmanufacturing.

Fivecasestudiesofmarketresponsestoenergyshocks

•Context:TheUSshaleboomofthe2000sand2010swas

shapedinpartbytheUSresponsetothesupplyshocksofthe1970s,andwassupportedbythesustainedhighenergypricesofthe2000senergycrisis,advancesindrillingtechnologies,

andthepushforenergyresilience.

•Response:Initsresponsetothe1970scrises,thefederal

governmentfocusedsupportondemandandsupply-side

measuresalongsideR&Dforalternativeenergysources,

includingsolar,nuclear,andunconventionaldomesticgasandoilproduction.Thisapproachultimatelyenabledthetechnologicaladvancesanddrillingtechniquesthatunlockedaccesstothe

oil-andgas-richShaleformationsintheUS.Coupledwithhighenergypricesofthe2000s,theUSwasabletorapidlyscaleproduction,withitsoutputmorethandoublingbetween2010and2020.Afterthevulnerabilitiesofthe1970scrises,theUShasbecometheworld’slargestoilandgasproducerandis

increasinglyinsulatedfrominternationalsupplyshocks.

rance’snucleartransition

F

•Context:Francewashighlyexposedtoimportedoilintheearly1970s,withlimiteddomesticenergyresourcesandapowersystemvulnerabletosupplydisruptionandpricevolatility.

•Response:Inresponsetothe1973oilshock,Francepursuedarapid,state-ledexpansionofnuclearpower,scalingdomesticgenerationoverthreedecades.Nuclearoutputincreasedmorethanthirtyfold,whileoilconsumptiondeclinedevenasoverallenergydemand

continuedtogrow.

1StatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy,EnergyInstitute,2021–2026

Anewera

Globalreaction

Gasmarkets

Oilsupply

Criticalminerals

Electricitygrowth

Disorderly

energytransition

Coaldemand

Global

emissions

Conclusion:Implications

forbusinesses

HowKPMG

canhelp

Theme02

Globalreaction:

Arebalancingofthetrilemma

Thecurrentenergyshockisrevealingacleardivergencein

howcountriesarebuildingresilience.Whiletheimmediate

objectivesarebroadlyconsistentinsecuringsupply,containingpriceimpactsandprotectingstrategicsectors,thepathways

beingtakendiffermarkedly,dependingonexposuretoglobalmarkets,existingenergysystemsandinstitutionalcapacity.

Thesedifferencesreflectvaryinglevelsofexposuretoglobal

markets,domesticresourceendowmentsandpoliticalpriorities.

ThedivergenceisalreadyvisibleacrosspartsofSoutheastAsiaandotheremergingmarkets.ElevatedLNGpriceshavecontributedtoreducedimports,increased

resilienceonalternativefuelsand,insomecases,emergencydemand-managementmeasuresincludingfuelconservationmandatesandreducedoperatinghoursfor

©2026CopyrightownedbyoneormoreoftheKPMGInternationalentities.KPMGInternationalentitiesprovidenoservicestoclients.Allrightsreserved.Divergentanddisorderly:Mappingglobalenergytrendsinanincreasinglyvolatileworld|7

businesses.Theresultisanincreasinglyfragmentedglobalresponse.

Keyinsights:

Thecurrentshockhasforcedare-prioritizationoftheenergytrilemmaformanygovernmentsastheylooktobalance

energysecurity,affordabilityandsustainability.Theresultisanincreasinglyfragmentedenergylandscape,withcountriespursuingmoredistinctandlocallydrivenstrategies.

Threebroadcampsareemerging:

Accelerators:

CountriesliketheEuropeanUnionmembersandtheUnitedKingdomareusingtheshocktopushharderandfasteroncleantransition,

combiningshort-termconsumerreliefwithlong-termstructuralinvestmentinrenewables,gridsandelectrification.

Economicgrowthfirst:

CountriesliketheUSandCanadaareincreasinglyprioritizingmeetingthesurgingdemands.IntheUS,thisapproachisreinforcedbyits

positionastheworld’slargestLNGexporter,strengtheningbothenergysecurityandglobalsupplyasdemandaccelerates.

Resilience-focusedpragmatism:

ChinaandBrazilprovideexamplesofcountriesnavigatingadiversifiedapproach,expandingrenewableswheretheycanwhilereducing

dependencyonimportedfossilfuelsthroughincreaseddomesticproductionandstockpilingofreserves.

Anewera

Globalreaction

Gasmarkets

Oilsupply

Criticalminerals

Electricitygrowth

Disorderly

energytransition

Coaldemand

Global

emissions

Conclusion:Implications

forbusinesses

HowKPMG

canhelp

Casestudy:

Europe’senergystoryisoneofambitionandrapidadaptation

AsEuropepushedtowardrenewablesoverthepastdecade,itleanedongasasacheap,flexiblebridging

fuelandlower-carbonalternativetocoal.Gasconsumptionincreaseduntil2021andthenslightlydecreased.Coal,alreadyinlong-termstructuraldecline,droppedbelownuclearasanenergysourceforthefirsttime.Renewablesnowsupplycloseto33percentofEuropeanelectricity.

ElectricitygenerationinEurope

2025

2020

2015

2010

2005

2000

17%11%19%16%33%

1%2%

20%15%21%17%24%

1%2%

15%25%24%16%16%

2%2%

22%25%25%16%8%

2%2%

4%20%28%28%14%4%

2%

5%15%30%29%17%

2%2%

OilwNaturalgasnCoalwNuclearnHydroelectricRenewablesOtherSource:StatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy,EnergyInstitute,2000–2026

However,gashasmovedbeyondajustbridgingfueltobecomeamorepermanentpartoftheenergysystem.

WhenRussiainvadedUkraine,nearlyathirdofEurope’sgassupplydisappearedalmostovernight.Inresponse,Europefast-trackedLNGinfrastructure,diversifiedtoUS,Norwegian,andMiddleEastsupply,anddoubleddownonrenewableswithrenewedurgency.

Europeremainsdependentongassupplychains.RussianpipelinegashasbeenreplacedbyLNG,predominantlyfromtheUS,creatinganewgeopoliticalexposureatatimewhenthetransatlanticrelationshipitselfisunderstrain.

Europe’senergysystemcontinuestoevolve,withaviewtoreducingitsexposurewitharenewedfocuson

furtherrenewablesandnucleardeployment,electrification,andefficiencymeasures.However,affordabilityandgridconstraintsremainkeybarriers,shapingboththepaceandscaleofthetransition.

Divergentanddisorderly:Mappingglobalenergytrendsinanincreasinglyvolatileworld|8

©2026CopyrightownedbyoneormoreoftheKPMGInternationalentities.KPMGInternationalentitiesprovidenoservicestoclients.Allrightsreserved.

Anewera

Globalreaction

Gasmarkets

Oilsupply

Criticalminerals

Electricitygrowth

Disorderly

energytransition

Coaldemand

Global

emissions

Conclusion:Implications

forbusinesses

HowKPMG

canhelp

Theme03

Gasmarkets:Shifting

fromglobaloptimizationtosecurity-driven

Globalgasconsumptionagainreachedrecordlevelsin2025at

150.7exajoules,seeinggrowthacrossnearlyallregions.Asia

remainsthecenterofglobalgasandLNGdemand,whileEuropehasreduceditsrelianceonpipelinegasinfavorofLNGimports,withanoverallincreaseinitsconsumptionreturningto2022

levels.Atthesametime,theUnitedStatesisstrengthening

itspositionasaleadingLNGexporterwithover25percentof

globallytradedvolumes,supportedbyasignificantexpansioninliquefactioncapacityalongsiderisingdomesticdemand.Thishasbeenaccompaniedbyamarkedshiftintradeflows,withUSLNGexportstoChinafallingtonearzeroamidtradetensions,while

volumestoEuropeincreasedsignificantly.

Divergentanddisorderly:Mappingglobalenergytrendsinanincreasinglyvolatileworld|9

©2026CopyrightownedbyoneormoreoftheKPMGInternationalentities.KPMGInternationalentitiesprovidenoservicestoclients.Allrightsreserved.

Anewera

Globalreaction

Gasmarkets

Oilsupply

Criticalminerals

Electricitygrowth

Disorderly

energytransition

Coaldemand

Global

emissions

Conclusion:Implications

forbusinesses

HowKPMG

canhelp

Inparallel,theMiddleEasthasalsoincreasedproductioncapacityin2025andstrengtheneditsroleinglobalLNGsupply,withQataraloneaccountingforapproximately30percentofChina’stotalLNGimports.However,therecentconflictintheregionislikelytoconstrainsupplygrowthoverthemediumtermanddisruptestablishedtradeflowsoverthedurationofthecrisis.

Gasisincreasinglyemergingasastand-alonegrowthsectorandacorepillaroftheglobalenergysystem.Whileneartermsupplydisruptionsareexpected,abundantresourcesandtechnologicalprogresscontinuetosupportgascompetitivenessinmanyregions.

Naturalgasproductionbyregions

(Exajoules)

47.3

21.7

26.2

197520002025

NorthAmerica

43.3

31.7

11.2

197520002025Restoftheworld

7.3

7.2

11.2

1975

1.0

20002025Europe

7.4

27.3

197520002025MiddleEast

9.50.31.0

197520002025China

16.3

9.0

1.0

197520002025

AsiaPacific

(excludingChina)

Source:StatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy,EnergyInstitute,1975–2026

Keyinsights:

Gashasundergoneaquietrevolution.Sincethestartofthecentury,ithasacceleratedfromaregional,pipeline-dependentfuelintoagloballytradedcommoditythatisflexible,liquidandincreasinglycentraltoenergysecuritystrategiesworldwide.

TheglobalizationofLNGhasexpandedoptionalityforbuyersbuthasalsointroducedanewformofvulnerability.Whenmarketstighten,thepainisnotsharedequally.

Wealthy,well-connectedeconomiescanabsorbhigherprices.Price-sensitivemarketscannot–andwhenLNGbecomesunaffordable,coalistheirdefault.Thesameglobal

marketthatpromisesenergysecurityforsomeisactivelydrivingemissionsdivergenceforothers.LNGcontinuestoplayacentralroleasaflexiblemechanismforbalancing

globalenergysupplyanddemand.

Meanwhile,thecenterofgravityinglobalgassupplyhasshifteddecisively.TheUShasemergedastheworld’slargestLNGexporter,creatingnewdependencies.OPEC-stylesupplymanagementwouldbefarharderwhentheworld’slargestproducercanrapidlyscaleoutputinresponsetopricesignals.Gasisbecomingmoreflexible,moregloballytraded,andmorepolitical.

Recentgeopoliticaltensionshavereinforcedthisshift,withcountriesplacinggreater

emphasisonsecuringamixofdomesticsupplyanddiversifiedimports.Atthesame

time,tightergasmarketsinsomeregionsareinfluencingfuelchoices.InpartsofAsia,competitionforLNGcargoesandconstraintsondomesticsupplyarecontributingto

increasedrelianceonfuelalternatives,includingcoal,particularlyinmoreprice-sensitivemarkets.Asaresult,whilegasmarketsarebecomingmoreinterconnectedglobally,

regionaldifferencesinaffordabilityandaccessarereinforcingdivergenceinenergypathwaysandemissionsoutcomes.

Divergentanddisorderly:Mappingglobalenergytrendsinanincreasinglyvolatileworld|10

©2026CopyrightownedbyoneormoreoftheKPMGInternationalentities.KPMGInternationalentitiesprovidenoservicestoclients.Allrightsreserved.

Anewera

Globalreaction

Gasmarkets

Oilsupply

Criticalminerals

Electricitygrowth

Disorderly

energytransition

Coaldemand

Global

emissions

Conclusion:Implications

forbusinesses

HowKPMG

canhelp

Theme04

Thecenterofgravity

ofglobaloilsupplyis

shiftingtotheAmericas

Overthecourseofthelastcentury,thediversificationofoil

supplyhasbeenadefiningfactorfortheindustry.TheUSshalerevolution,alongsidetheemergenceofBrazilasamajorproducerhasdilutedOPEC’spricingpoweranddeliveredresilienceagainstsingle-pointdisruptions.

AtthetimeofthefirstOPECoilshock,MiddleEasternproducersaccountedformorethanonethirdofglobaloilsupplyat37.4percentoftotalproductionin1974.Today,theMiddleEast’ssharehasdecreasedto30.9percentofglobaloilsupplyasproduction

growthfromtheUnitedStatesandothershasdiversifiedthesupplybase.Combined

oilproductionfromNorth,Central,andSouthAmericaisnow20.8percenthigherthantheMiddleEast