轻型汽车变速器市场分析与预测外文文献翻译、中英文翻译

PAGE53附录MarketAnalysisandForecastofLightVehicleTransmission1GlobaltransmissionmarketstatusThecurrentglobalvehicleproductionincreasesatanaverageannualrateof3.5%peryearandisexpectedtoatleast89millionat2015.Withtheincreaseinlightvehicleproduction,manualtransmissionandplanetarygearautomatictransmissionisalsoexpectedtoyieldincreases,buttheywillbeoccupiedapartoftheCVTmarketsharebytheAMT.Comparedwithplanetarygeartransmission,AMTandtheCVTautomatictransmissioncannotonlyimprovethetransmissionefficiencyanddecreaseproductioncosts,butalsocanquicklyimprovetheshiftquality;soitisexpectedthatAMTwillbehighergrowthrates.CVTapplicationswillbelimitedtosmallvehicles,butiftheringIVTtechnologyinpracticalapplicationsbecomemoremature,reliableandgainmarketacceptance,itcanachievestronggrowthmomentum.2TransmissionMarketAnalysisandForecast

2.1manualtransmission(MT)Overtheyears,WesternEuropefocusonstudyingdrivingcontrol,manufacturingcostsandfueleconomyandotherissues,becomingthelargestmarketformanualtransmissions,butitisexpectedthatinthenext5years,themarketpositionofthemanualtransmissionwilleventuallybereplacedbyEasternEuropeandAsia.However,inwholeEurope,theproportionofmanualtransmissionhasbeenonthedecline,especiallywhentheAMTgainsmoremarketshareandtheautomatictransmissionisappliedthesmallcarmarketandmanualtransmissionintheEuropeannewcarmarketshareisexpectedtodecreasefrom2005Inabout80%to70%in2010,about55%by2015.AtAsia-Pacificregion(excludingJapan),manualtransmissionmarketshareisexpectedtodecreasefrom87%in2005downto85%in2010anddropto83%in2015.However,automatictransmissionandCVTareverypopularinJapan,andmanualtransmissionwilllosemarketsharegradually,expectingtodeclinefromthecurrent22%to13%in2010.InNorthAmerica,themanualtransmissionmarketshareisexpectedtocontinuetodecline,from13%in2005downto11%in2010,andby2015only10%ofthemarket.InChina,India,PacificRimandSouthAmerica,5-speedmanualtransmissionisexpectedtocontinuetooccupymostofthemarketshare.Overall,asaslightincreaseinglobalautomotiveproduction,theglobalmarketshareofthemanualtransmissionisexpectedtodecline.2.2AutomaticTransmission(AT)Overtheyears,theNorthAmericancarownersaremorelikedrivingacarwithautomatictransmission,andthispreferencewillstillcontinue,despitetherecenttendthatbuyingavehiclewithbetterfueleconomymayaffecttheautomatictransmissionmarket,resultingmarketsharefalling.Planetarygearautomatictransmissionwillaccountfor85%ofthemarketsharein2010,87%in2005but2015willdropto83%.In2010,5-speedautomatictransmissionwillaccountfor77%oftotaltransmission,whilethemarketshareof6-speedtransmissionwillincrease,especiallythelargetorque6-speedtransmission.6-speedautomatictransmissionisexpectedtoaccountfor15%～20%ofthetotaloutputofautomatictransmission,50%by2010.In2015.4-speedautomatictransmissionisexpectedtodisappearfromnewproductby2010.DuetoCVTquicklycapturethemarket,especiallyinJapanaccountforalargeproportionofsmallandmicro-carsegment,automatictransmissionhasbeenJapan'sdominantpositioninthemarketformanyyears.Automatictransmissionmarketshareisexpectedtodecreasefrom60%in2005to50%in2010,downto45%in2015.NewcarmarkethasgrownrapidlyintheAsia-Pacific(excludingJapan),automatictransmissionisexpectedtoincreasefrom15%in2005to18%in2010,22%in2015.InEurope,theautomatictransmissionmarketwillbeerodedbyDCT,from17%in2005downto16%in2015to14%by2015.IntheMarch2007surveyfoundthat15%ofthenextEuropeanautomatictransmissionownersplanedtobuyacarassembledDCTselectmodels,andmorethan40%reportshowedthattheywouldconsidermodelswithAMT.Accordingtoanalysis,theglobalvehicleproductionassembledautomatictransmissionwillsoonexceedmanualtransmissioncar,butapartofthetotalamountoftheautomatictransmissionincreaseintheproportionduetoAMT.WiththegrowthofAMTandtheCVT,thetraditionalplanetaryautomatictransmissionisexpectedtobeonlyslightlyhigherthanthe29millionunitsin2005,whilein2010itwillsurpass3000millionandin2015achieve33millionunits.2.3Continuouslyvariabletransmission(CVT)CVTinJapanhasbeeninadominantmarketposition,itsmarketshareisexpectedtocontinuetogrowfromabout20%in2005to38%in2010.Inothermarkets,CVTwillonlygetacertaindegreeofmarketacceptance.CVTmaybeexpectedtoachieve5%marketshareinEuropeby2010,butthepossibilityofachievingthatisevensmallerthanthemarketinNorthAmerica.WhileCVTcantransmithightorque,butmanufacturingCVTneedspecialalloysteelandrequirespecialhigh-precisionmachining,makingthemanufacturingcostrelativelyexpensive,muchhigherthanthemanualtransmissionwithconsiderablepower.CVTsizeisalsoanassemblyproblem,inEuropebecauseitslowertorquetransmissioncapabilityhaslimitedconsumeracceptance.InNorthAmerica,fulloflargedisplacementvehicles,theCVTsignificantlyreducedmarketpenetration,andonlytosuchastheHondaCivicHybridandotherautomotivefacilities.Althoughacceptanceislimitedinthetwolargermarkets,theglobalproductionofCVTisexpectedtoincreaseabout60%,from250millionunitsin2005to400millionunitsin2010andin2015almost600millionunits.Itwillbedrivenbyfast-growingsmallcarmarketindevelopingcountries,marketsindevelopedcountriesshiftingtobetterfueleconomysmallcarsandhybridtechnology.2.4Theautomaticmechanicaltransmission(AMT)AMTmarketshareisexpectedtobesignificantgrowthinthecomingyears,especiallywiththeimprovementofthequalityshiftinthetraditionalautomatictransmission,leadingtotheluxurycarmarketmoreattractive.OneadvantageofAMTisthehydraulictoelectricdrivetogetbettertransmissionefficiencyandtransmissionefficiencyofAMTinawaybeyondthemanualgearbox,becausethedriverisunlikelytobemorethanacomputertooptimizeshifttoImprovefueleconomy.BecauseEuropeanprefersthemanualtransmissiontraditionally,andfocusondrivercontrolandthestudyoffueleconomy,thegrowthrateofAMTinEuropewillbethehighest,wherethemarketshareisexpectedtoincreasefromonly1%in2005to15%in2010andto29%by2015.Surveyfoundthat15%ofthepurchaserandcarryingautomatictransmissionEuropeancarownersplantobuyacarwithDCTnexttime,morethan40%ofcarownerswouldconsiderbuyingacarwithAMT.ThemarketshareofDCTwillreach29%by2015inEurope,butanalystspredicttheshareisonly10%.IntheAsia-PacificregionexcludingJapan,marketshareofAMTisexpectedtoreach7%in2010,risingto13%by2015.ItispredictedthatmarketshareofAMTinJapanisverylow,nomorethan2%in2010.AutomatictransmissionsinNorthAmericaareexpectedtocontinuetomaintaintheleadingposition,themarketshareofAMTrisefrom0in2005to4%in2010and7%by2015.GlobalproductionofAMTisexpectedtosurpass5.5millionunitsin2010andreachabout1,200millionunitsin2015.

轻型汽车变速器市场分析与预测1全球变速器市场现状目前全球汽车产量平均以每年3.5％的速度递增，预计至2015年全球轻型汽车产量将至少达到8900万辆。随着轻型汽车的产量增加，手动变速器和行星齿轮自动变速器的产量预计也将随之增加，但都将会被AMT和CVT侵占一部分市场份额。AMT和CVT与行星齿轮自动变速器相比，不仅提高了传动效率而且制造成本不高，而且能快速提高换挡质量；所以预计AMT将获得较高的增长率。CVT的应用将局限于小型车辆上，但如果环形IVT技术在实际应用中越来越成熟可靠并取得市场认可，则可以取得强劲的增长势头。2变速器市场分析与预测2.1手动变速器（MT）多年来，西欧关注于研究驾驶控制、制造成本和燃油经济性等问题，现在已成为手动变速器的最大市场，但预计在未来5年内手动变速器的最大市场位置最终将被东欧和亚洲替代。然而在整个欧洲，手动变速器所占的比例却一直在下降，特别是受AMT获得更多的市场份额和自动变速器打入小型车市场的影响，预计手动变速器在欧洲新车的市场份额将从2005年约80％降到2010年的70％左右，到2015年约为55％。在亚太地区（不包括日本），手动变速器的市场份额预计将从2005年的87％下降到2010年的85％，到2015年下降到83％。而在日本，自动变速器和CVT很受欢迎，手动变速器将失去市场份额，预计从目前的22％下降到2010年的13％。在北美，手动变速器的市场份额预计将继续下降，从2005年的13％降到2010年的11％，到2015年时仅占市场的10％。而在我国、印度、太平洋沿岸地区和南美洲，预计5速手动变速器将继续占有绝大部分市场份额。总体而言，随着全球汽车总产量略有增加，手动变速器的全球市场份额预计将持续下降。2.2自动变速器（AT）多年来，北美车主都更喜欢驾驶装有自动变速器的汽车，这种偏好将仍然继续，尽管近期趋于购买燃油经济性更好车辆的可能会影响到自动变速器市场，导致市场份额下降[1]。行星齿轮自动变速器在2010年仍将占据85％的市场份额，而2005年为87％，到2015年将下降到83％。2010年，预计5速自动变速器将占变速器总产量的77％，而6速变速器市场份额将增加，尤其是大转矩6速变速器。预计6速自动变速器到2010年将占自动变速器总产量的15％～20％，2015年为50％。预计4速自动变速器到2010年将从新车产品中消失。多年来日本的自动变速器也一直处于市场的主导地位，由于CVT迅速占领市场特别是在日本占有很大比例的小型和微型汽车细分市场[2]。预计自动变速器市场份额将从2005年的60％下降到2010年的50％，到2015年为45％。在新车市场增长很快的亚太地区（除日本），预计自动变速器将从2005年的15％上升到2010年的18％，2015年达到22％。在欧洲，自动变速器市场将被DCT蚕食，从2005年的17％下降到2015年的16％，到2015年为14％。在2007年3月调查中发现，15％的欧洲自动变速器车主计划下次购买汽车选择装配DCT的车型，有超过40％的报告说他们将考虑装有AMT的车型。分析认为，全球汽车产量中装载自动变速器的汽车将很快超过装载手动变速器的汽车，但在自动变速器的总量中有部分是由AMT所占比例上升引起的。随着AMT和CVT的增长，预计传统行星齿轮自动变速器的产量将仅略高于2005年的2900万台，2010年将超过3