麦肯锡 -代码与货运：人工智能将如何改变货运物流 Code and cargo How AI could change freight logistics

Mckunsey

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TravelPractice

Codeandcargo:HowAIcouldchangefreight

logistics

AI-fueledsoftwareplatformsaretransforminghowfreightbrokersand

forwardersoperate.Incumbentshavestrong,built-inadvantages—butwillneedtorewiretheirorganizations.

ThisarticleisacollaborativeeffortbyRyanGavinandTomBartman,withCheyenneAllenby,GuillermoDominguez,andNicolasLopez,representingviewsfromMcKinsey’sLogisticsPractice.

May2026

Codeandcargo:HowAIcouldchangefreightlogistics2

Fordecades,freightbrokersandforwardershavereliedon(oftenproprietary)software

platformstoconnectshipperswithcarriersandmanagetheflowofcargo.Thatmodelisnowbeingtested.AIcouldmakeiteasierforstart-upstomimicenterprisesoftware-as-a-serviceofferings—ormaybeevensidesteptheneedforthem.

Somelogisticsstart-upshavealreadyreportedusingAI-fueledsoftwaretocreateshipping

efficiencygains.It’sthereforenosurprisethatincumbent,asset-lightlogisticsforwardersandbrokersarecomingunderpressure,asAIthreatenstoerodethemoatsaroundtheirsoftwareplatforms.

Therearetwopotentialrisks.ThefirstisthatAImightletnewentrantsquicklyandcheaply

replicatepowerfullogisticssoftwareinterfaces.ThesecondisthatAIagentscouldjuststitchtogetherallthenecessaryfunctionalityontheirownusingopendata,therebycompletely

bypassingacustomer’sneedforanyspecializedlogisticsplatform.

Shouldincumbentsbeconcernedthatnew,nimblecompetitorscould“vibecode”robust

logisticssoftwareinterfaces,reducingtheconsiderabletimeandmoneypreviouslyrequiredtodeveloporobtainaccesstosuchtools?Willincumbents’carefullydesigned,oftenproprietarytechplatformsnolongerprovidesustainablecompetitiveadvantages?Willshippersjuststartroutingalltheirfreightusinglarge-language-model-basedchatportals?

It’scertainlytruethatAIischanginglogistics,andincumbentswillneedtoadapt.Butthosethatcancombinetheirformidablescale,relationships,experience,anddatawithaforward-lookingapproachtotech—embracinginnovationfasterandimplementingitbetterthan

competitors—couldbewellpositionednotonlytosolidifytheirleadershipadvantagesbutalsotocapturetheROIupsidethatAIcouldhelpdelivertothesector.

Logisticsincumbents’strengthsarehardtomimic

Incumbentlogisticsprovidershaveadvantagesthattheyhavedevelopedandbolsteredovertimeandthatsoftwarecan’teasilyreplicate.

—Scale.Asset-lightlogisticsproviders(suchasbrokersandforwarders)managesubstantialvolume,whichhelpsthemsecurevolumediscountsfromcarriers.Theirwidernetworksgiveincumbentsmoreoptionsformovingtheircustomers’cargo.

—Personalconnections.Thehumanelement—includingrelationshipsdevelopedoveryearsanddecades—helpsincreasetrustbetweenshippersandbroker/forwarders,aswellas

betweenbroker/forwardersandcarriers.Customershavemoreconfidencethatpromiseswillbekept,andtheyknowwhotocallshouldanythinggowrong.Start-ups(especially

thosefocusedmoreontechsolutionsthanonpersonalrelationships)havenothadtimetoearnthesameamountofgoodwill.

Codeandcargo:HowAIcouldchangefreightlogistics3

—Experience.Moretimeontask—atanenterpriselevel—meansthatincumbentshaveseenitall(oratleastmostofit)before.Theydeeplyunderstandtheneedsofbothshippersand

carriers.

—Data.Incumbentbrokersandforwardersmaintainlarge,diversesetsofproprietarydata,gatheredfrommillionsofshipmentsandcustomerinteractionsthatspanyearsofactivity.Thisdataincludenotjustsuccessfultransactionsbutalsorecordsofwhichshippingratescustomershavedeclinedandinwhichcontexts.LargedataflowscanhelptrainAImodelsonreal-worldfreightbehavior.Newerentrantswon’thavehadtimetoamassrobust,

detaileddatasetsoftheirown.

(Asset-heavylogisticsproviderstendtobemoreinsulatedfromAIdisruption,giventhecapitalrequiredtoreplicateaphysicalnetwork.Inaddition,theycanbenefitfromAIinareassuchasmaintenance,assetutilization,andnetworkoptimization.)

LeadinglogisticsincumbentsarealreadyembracingAI

ThepotentialforAItodisruptthelogisticssectorisreal.AIhasthecapacitytoradically

transformhowtransportationandlogisticscompaniesoperate,propellingsignificantincreasesinproductivity.

Butsomeinstitutionalanalystswhocoverthespacehavedownplayedthenear-termrisksofdisruptionforasset-lightlogisticsincumbents.Why?Logisticsincumbentsareawareofthisevolutioninthesector,andtheyaren’trestingontheirlaurels.They’recombiningthe

advantagesdetailedabovewiththecutting-edgebenefitsofAI.

OnetransportationcompanyhasimplementedanAI-enabledsupplychainplatformthathas

boostedproductivitybymorethan40percentsince2022.Theplatformcanautomatetasksandhasbeenappliedtoareasincludingpricing,capacitysourcing,freighttracking,anddocument

handling.Anothertransportationcompanyhasdeployed50AIagentsthathaveallowedittoautomate60percentofcheckcalls(whichupdatethestatusofcargo),73percentoforderacceptances,80percentofpaperinvoicepayments,andtwomillionquotes—savingtensofthousandsofhoursoflabor.

Adaptandinnovate—orthetrainleaveswithoutyou

UnderstandingandimplementingAIisnowimperativefortransportationandlogistics

companies.Thosethatcan’tintegrateAIintotheiroperatingmodelscouldstruggletokeeppacewiththosethatcan.

ButAIcan’tsimplybelayeredontopofexistingprocessesandwaysofworking.Itneedstobewovenintothecoreelementsofacompany’sstrategyandexecution.

McKinseyresearchhas

revealedapproachesthatcanhelpcompaniesrewire

—reimagininghowtheirbusinessworks,acceleratingtheirinnovationcycles,andtranslatingAIinvestmentsintobottom-linereturns.

Codeandcargo:HowAIcouldchangefreightlogistics4

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Thefirststepistoestablishaclearstrategy.Theorganizationmustalignonwhatthebusinessshouldlooklikeinthedigitalage.Anystrategyshouldincludeadetailedroadmapthatmakes

clearwhichcapabilitieswillbeneededtogenerateimpact.Successfulorganizationstendto

focusondomainsthatarebigenoughtogeneratemeaningfulvaluewithoutdisruptinglarge

partsofthebusiness.Thecommercialdomainistypicallyonesucharea—forinstance,AIcanbeusedasaleadgenerationengineortoimproveaccountmanagement.AIcanalsoreshape

operations,forinstance,byautomatingthecreationofbillsofladingorbyfunctioningasatrainingagentforworkers.

Oncethestrategyisclear,focuscanshifttowarddevelopingcapabilities,whichtendtofallintofourbuckets:

—Talent.Digitalexcellencecan’tbeoutsourced.It’scriticaltoacquireordevelopinternal

talentthatcanbuildandevolveproprietarydigitalsolutions(andequallycriticaltocreateanenvironmentinwhichthistalentcanthrive).

—Operatingmodel.It’sdifficulttoalteroperatingmodelsbecausetheysitatthecoreofanorganizationandhowitspeopleworktogether.Butadaptingtheoperatingmodeliswhatallowstheorganizationtoaccommodatefasterandmoreflexibleinnovation.

—Technology.Buildingadistributedtechnologyenvironmentcanenableeasieraccessto

data,applications,andsoftwaredevelopmenttools.Thegoalisfortechnologytobereadilyusableinwaysthatallowforrapiditerationandhigh-qualitysolutions.

—Data.Organizationscandevelopadataarchitecturethatallowsdatatobeeasilyconsumedandreusedbydifferentteams.Astrongdataapproachiscriticalbecausethevaluethatcanbeextractedwillbedependentonthedata’squality,relevance,andavailability.

Allofthisfundamentallyreliesonanorganization’swillingnessandabilitytobepurposefulwithchangemanagement.Leadersshouldgetcustomersandemployeestoadoptthenewsolutionsandtrackusageatsufficientlygranularlevels,withclearKPIs,toensurethatrealvalueisbeingcaptured.Changingprocessesthathaveworkedformanyyearscanbedifficult.Successful

rewiringrequiresleadershiptobeinvestedandinvolved—activelyinfluencingteamstoadoptpromisingAIinitiatives.

AIisunlikelytofullybreachthemoatsthatincumbentlogisticsprovidershaveestablished.Butitcouldreshapesomeoftheadvantagesthathaveoftenseparatedleadersfromlaggards.The

mosteffecti