摩根士丹利-亚洲股票的投资理由 The Case for Asian Equities 202610

TheCaseforAsianEquities

INSIGHT|EMERGINGMARKETSEQUITYTEAM|October2026

Formorethanadecade,globalequityportfolioshavebeen

dominatedbytheUnitedStates.Andrightlyso.U.S.companiesdeliveredexceptionalearningsgrowth,providedtechnology

leadershipandproducedstrongshareholderreturns.Butactiveinvestingisnotaboutyesterday’swinners.It’saboutidentifyingpositivereturnsthatarenotyetreflectedintoday’sprices.

WebelieveAsiaiswherethosereturnsnowsit.

First,AsiaContinuesToOfferStrongerEconomicGrowth

Evenwiththepressurefromhigherenergycostsandincreasedglobal

uncertainty,weexpectAsia,onthewhole,todeliverstrongereconomicgrowththandevelopedmarkets.Thismattersbecauseeconomicgrowthcompounds:risingincomefuelsconsumption,whichdeepensfinancializationandlifts

corporaterevenues.

AcrossIndiaandSoutheastAsia,hundredsofmillionsofconsumersareclimbingintohigher-incomecategories,shiftingtheirspendingawayfromjustbasic

goods.AccordingtotheWorldBank,aboutoneinthreepeopleintheregionnowbelongtothemiddleclasses.1Forinvestors,thisgrowthhelpscreatealongrunwaynotdependentonasingleeconomiccycle.

Second,AsiaIsCentraltotheGlobalAIEcosystem

ThereisnoAIstorywithoutAsia.IntheU.S.thefocusremainsfirmlyonthe

Mag7.2ButwithoutcertainAsiancompanies,whetherTaiwanSemiconductor,SamsungorSKHynix,thoseMag7companieswillbehardpressedtofunctioneffectively(Display1).Andit’snotjustthesemiconductorcompanies,buttheservercomponents,chiptesting,assembly,serverracks,coolingsystemsamongothers.Sofar,thebiggestbeneficiariesofthemassiveAIcapex,roughly$2

trillionfor2026-2027,3havebeenAsiancompaniesacrossnotjustKoreaandTaiwan,butcountrieslikeThailandandMalaysia.

AUTHORS

AMAYHATTANGADIPortfolioManagerEmergingMarkets

EquityTeam

STEVESUN

ManagingDirectorEmergingMarketsEquityTeam

1BeyondPoverty:WhyGrowingtheMiddleClassIsaDifferentChallenge,LalitaMoortyandSaileshTiwari,WorldBank,8/31/2026.

2Alphabet,Amazon,Apple,Meta,Microsoft,Nvidia,Tesla

3MorganStanley2026MidyearOutlooks

DISPLAY1

TheEnginesBehindGlobalAI

1Q20

2Q20

3Q20

4Q20

1Q21

2Q21

3Q21

4Q21

1Q22

2Q22

3Q22

4Q22

1Q23

2Q23

3Q23

4Q23

1Q24

2Q24

3Q24

4Q24

1Q25

2Q25

3Q25

4Q25

1Q26

2Q26

TSMCandSKHynixgrossmargins(%)reflecttheirdominance

70

65

60

55

50

45

40

TSMC(LHS)

100

80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

Hynix(RHS)

Source:Bloomberg.Asof06/30/2026.TSMCandSKHynixarethetopplayersintheirfield.Hynixhasa50%shareofhigh

bandwidthmemory(HBM)marketbyrevenueand62%ofglobalHBMshipments.TSMCmanufacturesmorethan90%oftheworld’sleading-edgelogicchips.

Third,ValuationsRemainAttractive

Aftermorethanadecadeofoutperformance,

U.S.market

valuationshavebecomeelevated.Andwiththeriseof

theMag7andAI

,manyglobalportfolioswithalargeU.S.

weightingarenowhighlyconcentratedinasmallgroupof

richly-valued

U.S.tech

companies.Bycontrast,China,Korea,SoutheastAsiaandpartsofIndiaofferdifferentiatedearningsdriversand,inmanycases,atmorereasonablevaluations.

Chinamightbeconsideredacontroversialinvestment,

butisnonethelessaplacewherewebelieveselective

opportunitiesexist.Aweakjobmarket,propertysectorstressandpoorconsumersentimentareunderstood,

butpocketsofgrowthinthetechnology,healthcareandindustrialssectorslookpromising.High-qualityChinese

companieswithstrongcashflows,competitiveindustrypositioningandincreasingfocusonshareholderreturncanbefoundatreasonablevaluations.

India,theothermarketthatrepresentsstructural

opportunities,facesnear-termchallengesofpoorforeigninvestorsentimentandmoreelevatedvaluationsbroadly,thoughtherearepocketsofopportunitiesarising.

Forus,it’snotaboutbuyingeveryAsianmarketnoreverybigcompany,butinsteadfindingselectiveideasacross

countries,industriesandcompanies.Allthisishappeningas

therehasbeenincreasedattentionbeingpaidbycompaniestofocusonshareholderreturns,increasedtransparencyandimprovedcorporategovernance.Korea’sCorporateValue-Upprogramistheclearestexample(TalesFromtheEmergingWorld,Nov.2025).Wethinkthesechangesmatteras

growthalonedoesnotguaranteeshareholderreturns.

Investorsbenefitwhenmanagementteamsallocatecapitaleffectivelyandrecognizetheimportanceofreturnonequity,sustaineddividendsandopportunisticsharebuybacks.

Webelievethisdiversemarketoffersbothbroad

diversificationandactiveselectionofcountriesandstocksinaregionthatoffersstronggrowth,leadershipintechnology,withrisingdomesticconsumptionandimprovinggovernance,wherevaluationsstillappearattractive.

Thequestionisn’taboutwhetherallAsianmarketswillrallynow,butiflong-terminvestorshaveenoughexposuretoaregionatapivotpoint.Wethinktheanswerisyesandthatthetiminglooksrighttoincreaseexposure,mainlybecausetheAIcapexcycleisalreadyflowingthroughAsia,andnotmerelyaprojection.

AsiaEquities:3ThemestoWatch

WheninvestorsdiscussAsia,technologyandsemiconductorsarethefirstindustriesthatcometomind.ButAsia’s

investmentopportunityisfarbroader,andwethinkthere

2MORGANSTANLEYINVESTMENTMANAGEMENT|EMERGINGMARKETSEQUITYTEAM

MORGANSTANLEYINVESTMENTMANAGEMENT|EMERGINGMARKETSEQUITYTEAM3

areindustriesbeyondchipsthatstandout.Thesearethe

sectorsthatinourviewarewellpositionedtocaptureAsia’stransitionfromexport-driventoonemoreinnovativeand

consumption-led.

Industrials:BuildingtheNextAsia

Thisisanincreasinglyimportantsectorforgovernmentsasfocushasturnedtoinvestingintransportnetworks,powergeneration,increasinghigh-endmanufacturingcapacity

amongothers.Supplychainsarealsobeingreorganized

sincetheCoviddisruptionandrecentMiddleEastconflict.Companiesincreasinglywantproductionacrossmultiplecountriesratherthandependencyonasinglelocation.

ThisscenarioiscreatingopportunitiesacrossAsia.Atthe

sametime,Asiaisbecomingaleaderinfactoryautomation,robotics,electricvehicle(EV)supplychainsandrenewableenergyequipment.Thishasmeantopportunitieshave

broadenedoutfromtraditionalconstructioncompaniestoengineeringfirms,automationspecialistsandmanufacturersofhigh-valuecomponents.Theindustrialfocusisnow

muchmoreoninfrastructure,localizationandsmartermanufacturing.

Financials:FinancingAsia’sgrowthandaBeneficiaryoftheConsumerStory

Economicdevelopmenthasincreaseddemandforcredit,morerobustpaymentsystemsandabroadersetof

investmentproducts.InmanyAsianeconomies,householdborrowing,insuranceownershipandwealthmanagement

remainsignificantlylessdevelopedthanindeveloped

markets.Asincomesrisethough,demandfortheseservicesshouldexpand.Banksandinsurancecompaniesstandto

benefitfromrisingloandemand,greaterneedforprotectionandinvestmentproducts.

Theopportunityisnotsimplyaboutowningbanksbutrelatedtoconsumers,asashiftfromsimply“more”

consumptionto“better”consumptionisunderway.

Consumersarebecomingmoresophisticated,now

concernedwithpremiumizationandexperiences,increasingtheirspendingontravel,healthcare,entertainment,beautyproductsandbetter-qualityfoodsandbeverages.India

andSoutheastAsiaofferparticularlyattractivelong-termconsumptionstories,supportedbyfavorabledemographics,urbanizationandincreasingdigitaladoption.InChina,

althoughthepictureismoreselective,recentgovernmentmeasurescouldprovidesomepolicysupport.China’s15thFive-YearPlan(2026–30)doesnameconsumption-led

growthasapriority,withtrade-insubsidiesandurban-renewalprograms.

TheEngineBehindGlobalAI

AsiaremainsacriticalelementintheglobalAIsupplychain(Display2).TaiwanandSouthKoreaarecentraltoadvancedsemiconductormanufacturing,memory,packagingand

testing.ChinaalsonowhasmajorcapabilitiesinEVs,leadingtechnologyinbatteries,growingbaseofautomationand

establisheddigitalplatforms.Buttheopportunityismoving

DISPLAY2

EMAsiaRemainsaKeySuppliertoU.S.CloudServicesProviders(CSP)

U.S.capexvs.revenuesforAsiankeysuppliers(TaiwanSemiconductor,HonHai,SKHynix)%increasere-basedto100

1Q20

2Q20

3Q20

4Q20

1Q21

2Q21

3Q21

4Q21

1Q22

2Q22

3Q22

4Q22

1Q23

2Q23

3Q23

4Q23

1Q24

2Q24

3Q24

4Q24

1Q25

2Q25

3Q25

4Q25

1Q26

2Q26

1,000

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

U.S.CSPCapex(LHS)AsianKeySuppliersrevenue(RHS)

Source:Bloomberg.Asof06/30/2026

4MORGANSTANLEYINVESTMENTMANAGEMENT|EMERGINGMARKETSEQUITYTEAM

beyondjustchips.AIadoptioncanimproveproductivity

acrossmanufacturing,logistics,banking,healthcareand

consumerservices.Webelievetherearenewopportunitiesinfindingboththecompaniesbuildingthetechnologyandthoseusingittostrengthentheircompetitiveadvantage.

HowWeInvestinAsia

Wefindthatmostequitymanagers,especiallyonesin

Asia,focusprimarilyonbottom-upstockideas.Withour

experienceinvestingacrossAsiaandemergingmarkets,

we’vecometorealizetheimportanceoftop-down

allocationfrombothacountryandathematicperspective.Beforeweaskwhichcompany,weaskwhichcountry,whichthemesandwhynow.

Webuildourportfoliotop-down,fromacountry-allocationandthematic-exposurestandpoint.Thismeansweare

deliberatelyoverweightorunderweightamarketbasedonwhereitisintheeconomic,policyandcreditcycles,coupledwithanunderstandingofthethemesdrivinggrowth,

whethersemiconductorsinKoreaandTaiwan,domestic

consumptioninIndiaorpoliticalchangesinEasternEurope.Ourstrategyisnotmerelybenchmarkhuggingwithatilt,butbasedonhighconviction,dependentonwherewe

believecapitalshouldbeworkingrightnow.

Butthattop-downviewisonlyhalftheinvestmentengine.Theotherhalfisbottom-upstockselectionwithanalysts

“ontheground,”parsinginvestmentideasthroughamacroandthematiclensbeforeaddingtotheportfolio.We

believeourcompetitiveadvantagederivesfromtheabilitytodeliverreturnsgeneratedfromthosetwodrivers:the

correctcountry/theme,thentherightcompany.Ideallybothdriversworksimultaneously,butit’softenonedriver,suchasallocation,havingabiggercontributioninacertaincountry,whileitmightbestockselectioninanother.Thatisnota

coincidence,butbydesign,allrelatedtoourprocess.

Theresultisareturnprofilethatisnotdependentona

singlecountry,themeorstock.Marketsrotateandthemesgoinandoutoffavor.Astrategybuiltonstockpicking

alonecanoftenfaceextendedperiodsofperformance

challengeswhencertainfactorsareoutoffavor.Astrategybuiltwithonlycountryallocationscanbeunderminedby

stockselection.Butourviewisthatthetwodrivers,workingtogether,leadtoamoreconsistentperformanceacross

marketcycles,notjustduringperiodswhenoneortheotherisinfavor.

Top-downconvictionwithbottom-updiscipline.OneAsiastrategy,designedtoidentifyandcaptureopportunitiesthroughthewholecycle,notjustsectionsofit.

RiskConsiderations

Thereisnoassurancethataportfoliowillachieveitsinvestmentobjective.Portfoliosaresubjecttomarketrisk,whichisthepossibilitythatthemarketvaluesofsecuritiesownedbyaportfoliowilldeclineandthatthevalueofportfoliosharesmaythereforebelessthanwhatyoupaidforthem.Marketvaluescanchangedailyduetoeconomicandotherevents(e.g.naturaldisasters,healthcrises,terrorism,conflictsandsocialunrest)thataffectmarkets,countries,companiesorgovernments.Itisdifficulttopredictthetiming,duration,andpotentialadverseeffects

(e.g.portfolioliquidity)ofevents.Accordingly,youcanlosemoneyinvestinginaportfolio.Pleasebeawarethataportfoliomaybesubjecttocertainadditionalrisks.Ingeneral,equitiessecurities’valuesalsofluctuateinresponsetoactivitiesspecifictoacompany.Investmentsinforeignmarketsentailspecialriskssuchascurrency,political,economic,marketandliquidityrisks.Therisksofinvestinginemergingmarketcountriesaregreaterthantherisksgenerallyassociatedwithinvestmentsinforeigndevelopedcountries.

IMPORTANTDISCLOSURES

Chartsandgraphsprovidedhereinareforillustrativepurposesonly.Pastperformanceisnoguaranteeoffutureresults.

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long-term,especiallyduringperiodsofdownturninthemarket.

Aseparatelymanagedaccountmaynotbeappropriateforallinvestors.SeparateaccountsmanagedaccordingtotheparticularStrategymayincludesecuritiesthatmaynotnecessarilytracktheperformanceofaparticularindex.Pleaseconsidertheinvestmentobjectives,risksandfeesoftheStrategycarefullybeforeinvesting.Aminimumassetlevelisrequired.

Forimportantinformationabouttheinvestmentmanagers,pleaserefertoFormADVPart2.

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