2026数据中心的未来研究报告：数据与算力篇

Issue04

DataCentreFutures:

Dataand

Compute

Howtheevolvingnatureofdataand

computemightredefinethedesign

andlocationsofdatacentres

Foresight

June2026

DataCentreFutures–lookingbeyondtheasset

Twenty-firstcenturylife—fromIfleftunchecked,datacentres

thesmallesteverydayinteractionscoulddestabilisetheurban

tolarge-scaleinternationalandmetabolism,crowdingoutresource

evenextraterrestrialsystems—isflowsthatarevitalforshortand

increasinglyreliantonflowsoflongtermurbandevelopment.

data.Whilewewouldallfeelthe

effectsiftheseflowsweredisrupted,Datacentresembodyaparadox.

fewofuspausetoreflectonthevitalTheirrapidgrowthisplacing

digitalinfrastructurethattransformsincreasingstrainonkeyresources,

thisdataintomeaningfulinsights,evenasourdependenceon

thecommunications,services,andthemcontinuestointensify.

operationsthatenhanceourManagingthistensioniscritical.

everydaylives.

Withinan‘urbanmetabolism’,datacentresarehubs

throughwhichflowsofwater,energy,materials,

andpeople—aswellasinformation—move.And

ascriticalinfrastructure,whichneedstobeprotected,

theycanplayacentralroleinshapingsafe,resilient

andregenerativeplaces.

DatacentresarecriticalnodesinoneSo,whatdefinesa‘good’data

ofthemostprolificinfrastructuralcentreandhowcanthefacility

periodsinhistory.Thinkingofthembebotha‘goodneighbour’anda

merelyas‘assets’narrowsourfield‘goodancestor’?

ofvisionandlimitsthepotentialfor

wider,positiveimpactthrough

theirdesign.

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DataCentreFutures–lookingbeyondtheasset

Beingagoodneighbourrequiresarethink

of‘performance’metrics;areframingof

‘efficiency’;arefocusingontheirimpactin

theareasinwhichtheyarebuilt.Howcandata

centresimprovetheirlocalplaceandtheirlocal

ecosystem?Beingagoodancestorrequires

anawarenessthattheinfrastructureoftoday

becomestherelicsoftomorrow.Italsomeans

accountingfortheimpactofthedecisionswe

maketodayonfuturegenerations.

Creatingmeaningfulimpactstartswithlong-term

thinkinganddesigningsystemsthatcanadaptto

change.Whathappenswhentechnologicaland

socio-culturalevolutionsmakedatacentres,in

theircurrentform,redundant?

Withthisandsubsequentissues,weexplore

theFutureofDataCentres,buildinguponour

alreadybroadrangeofinsightsonA.

Weaimnottodefendaposition,butratherto

elevatetheconversationarounddatacentres,

encouragingmoreofustoaskbetterquestions

aboutdangerousassumptionsandpossible

futuresinthisfast-evolvinglandscape.

Hitpause,lookupandlookaround.

2

DataCentreFutures:DataandCompute

DataCentreFuturesseries

IncollaborationwithtechnicalexpertsacrossArup’sglobaloffices,

theForesightteampresentstheDataCentreFuturesseries.

Eachissueexploresakeytheme,emergingissues,trendsshapingfuture

context,criticalreflectionsandinformedspeculationonlonger-term

possibility.

A尸

ThisfourthandfinalissueofthisseriesfocusesonDataandCompute.04Dataand<>

Weareenteringaperiodofacceleratedtechnologicalchange,driven

bytheemergenceofseveralnewcomputingapproachesandmultipleCompute

general-purposetechnologies.Thesedevelopmentsrippleacrossthe

datalifecycle.Datanowarrivesinvastvolumes,fromanexpanding

arrayofsources,andofteninrealtime.ItisprocessedacrossmultipleMappinguncertainity05

architecturesandpushedthroughdistributednetworks,allwhilebeing

shapedandconstrainedbyheightenedawarenessofsecurityandTechnologyradar07

sovereignty.Arupexpertpiece08

Yet,thisrapidevolutioniscollidingwithaverydifferentreality.ThelongDriversofchange10

life,highcostandrelativepermanenceofthephysicalinfrastructurebuiltExternalexpertpiece14

toenableit.Datacentresarebeingdesignedandfinancedasenduring

assetsattheverymomentthetechnologiestheysupportarebecomingEarlysignsofthefutureinthepresent16

morefluid,uncertainandcontested.Thiscreatesimportantnear-term17

risksofredundancyandlock-insalongsidesignificantfinancialandRecommendations

environmentalcostsforoperators,clientsandwidereconomies.Glossary19

3

DataCentreFutures:DataandCompute

Foresightwouldusuallytakealongerviewtoidentifydeeperpatternsof

change,inthiscase,however,thereisalsoanurgentneedtoconfrontnear-

termuncertaintyanddesignforoptionality.Thismomentalsocreatesreal

opportunities,givingtoday’sdatacentredesignersthechancetobecome

morespecialised,adaptableandcreativethanthesectorpreviouslyrequired.

Atitsbest,thissectorisbecomingoneofthemostimportantenabling

industriesofthenextdecade,quietlypoweringbreakthroughsinscience,

publicservices,andeverydayproductivity.

Wecanshapethenexteraratherthaninheritit.Agooddatacentreismore

thananasset:itearnsitssociallicencebysupportinglocalcommunities,

ecosystemsandresourcesystems.Asagoodancestor,itisdesignedfor

long-termvalue,adaptable,resilient,andleavingapositivelegacyratherthan

strandedinfrastructure.

Thisreportexaminestheseshiftsacrossthedatalifecycleandasks:

Howcouldemergingandfuturetechnologicaldevelopmentsdrivefuture

designandlocationofdatacentres?

Howdoweensurethattoday’sdominantdigitalinfrastructurearchetype

doesn’tlimitthepotentialfornewtypesofcomputingandtechnologies

inthefuture?

Ourfindingspointtotheneedforadaptive,context-specificdatacentre

designandlocationstrategies,movingbeyonduniformmodelstoreflect

distinctdataecosystems.

4

DataCentreFutures:DataandCompute

Mappinguncertainty

Technologydriversimpactingdatacentres

Datacentresarecritical,capital-intensiveinfrastructurewithlonglife

cyclesdespiterapidindustrychange.Decisionsmadetodaywillshape

exposuretotechnological,regulatoryandenvironmentalriskfordecades.

Thatlifespanisalsoastrategicadvantage:designingforflexibilitynowcan

keepsitesusefulacrossmultipletechnologygenerations.

Technologicalchange-whatweknow

Artificialintelligence,advancedanalyticsandpervasivedatacollection

aredrivingasurgeindemandforcomputingpower,makingitoneof

thisdecade’smostcriticalresources1.Asdatasourcesmultiply,from

IoTdevicesandindustrialsensorstoautonomoussystems,thevolume,

velocityanddiversityofdatacontinuetoaccelerate.Demandforcompute

isunlikelytoeaseascapabilitiesexpand,bringingnewapplications,

dependenciesandexpectations.

Atthesametime,datagovernanceisrisingupthepoliticalagenda,100100100100

particularlyinamoregeopoliticallyfraughtenvironment.Datasecurity,000111100100

TREFO

sovereigntyandassetprotectionareshapinginfrastructuredecisions.000111100100

Locationisnolongeronlyaboutcost,connectivityorconvenience,but000111100100

000111100100

alsostrategicresilienceandautonomy.ThesepressuresextendbeyondIT000111

hardwaretothewidersystemsdatacentresrelyon,includingenergy,water,

landandcriticalmaterials,whicharebecomingmoreconstrainedand

contested,ascoveredinearlierissuesofthisseries.

Yetscarcityandpressureoftendriveinnovation,

pushingnewformsofefficiency,newdesign

responsesandnewtechnologicalsolutions.

DataCentreFutures:DataandCompute

Whatwedon’tknowConvergenceacrosstechnologyfamilies

andsub-familiesmaygeneratenew

Thecurrentdatacentrelandscapespatial,operationalandinvestment

willstruggletosustainthepaceofneedsthatarenotyetfullyvisible.

projectedgrowthwithoutmajorTheuncertaintyalsoextendsbeyond

changestopowersupply,capacitytechnologyitself.Thefutureshapeofdata

expansion,andoperatingmodels.governance,sovereigntyandregulation

Thatpressureisalsoacceleratingwillvaryfromplacetoplace,influencing

innovation,forcingbetterefficiency,infrastructuredecisionsindifferentways.TREFO

clearerworkloadchoices,andmore10010010

adaptableoperatingmodels.Pastdisruptionssuchasthemovefromha

centralisedserverstocloudarchitectures

ortherapidriseofAIworkloadsrelianton

Emergingtechnologiesspecialisedchips,showhowquicklynew

andevolvingcomputingdemandcanoutpaceexistingassumptions.

Thismakeslong-termplanningmore

paradigmswillimpactdifficultbutalsoreinforcesthevalueof

whereandhowdataadaptiveandresilientstrategies.

centresaredesigned,Toexplorethismixofsignalsand

builtandoperated.Butunknowns,wemapthelandscapeof

wedon’tyetknowthetechnologiesandsub-technologiesl

onaradar.Theradardoesnotpredict

precisetimingornatureoutcomes,buthelpsidentifyina

ofmajorbreakthroughsstructuredwaywhichemerging

northepaceanddepthtechnologiesmightreshapethedesign,

oftheiradoptions.location,androleofdatacentres.

Aglossaryoftermsisprovidedonpage19ofthisreport.

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DataCentreFutures:DataandCompute

Thistechnologyradarmapsemergingand

convergingdataandcomputetechnologiesNeuromorphiccomputing

acrossthedatalifecycleandthree

010010010

011110010

indicativetimehorizons:shortterm,mid-011110010

011110010

termandlongterm.Itisnotexhaustive,011110010

DNAbasedstorageLongtermStochasticcomputing

andviewsmaydifferonthelikelytiming

andmaturityofindividualtechnologies.

OrganoidIntelligence

Aglossaryoftermsisprovidedon

page19ofthisreport.Personallargeactionmodels

Photoniccomputing

EdgecomputingBiocomputing

Glass-basedstorage

Midterm

Quantumcomputing7G

Self-learningsystems

Hybridclassical-quantum

Ultra-denseSSDsAIcomputing

Quantumcommunication

WearableecosystemsLargelanguagemodels

6G

Bio-integratedsensorsLargeactionmodels

SolidstatestorageSpacebaseddatacentres

DistributedAI

Symbolicreasoningintegration

EdgeAIShortterm

Braincomputerinterface

Quantumsensors

5G

Livingwearables

WearableAI

EmbodiedAI/Robotics

Impact

horizons7

DataCentreFutures:DataandCompute

0

Arupexpertpiece:

1

Heterogeneouscompute:Designingforthemulti-paradigmdatacentre0

Thecoexistenceofclassical,quantumandotherSimilarly,aquantumprocessor’sneedfor

paradigmssuchasbiocomputingwillfundamentallymillikelvintemperaturesandEMIshieldingJimmyChan

1

fragmentthetraditionaldatacentremodel.Weareisincompatiblewiththe‘noisy’electricalAssociateDirector,

likelytobemovingfromaunifiedfacilitytoacampusenvironmentofhigh-densityAIracks.ThisAdvancedDigital

1

ofspecialisedzones,astheinfrastructurerequirementsforcesalaboratorymodeloverawarehouseEngineering,Arup0

foreachparadigmareradicallydifferent.model,requiringdifferentflooring,airhandling,

0

andwastesystemswithinthesamecampus.1

Locationstrategywilldiverge.Whileclassical

computingcontinuestorelyonpowergrids,quantumOrganisationsarealreadydesigningfor0

willdrivefacilitiestowardgeologicallystablezonestocoexistence,notreplacement.Classical

mitigatevibration,andmayrequireproximitytoheliumcomputeremainsdominant,butexistingwork

supplychains.Biocomputing,conversely,willanchoronquantumcomputingfacilitiesandcryogenic

0

itselftobio-techhubsforaccesstobiologicalreagentsenvironmentsshowshowdifferentfuture0

andcontainmentprotocols.paradigmsimposefundamentallydifferent

requirements,vibration,EMI,thermalstability,

Designandinfrastructurewillbeandpowerquality.That’sdrivingdatacentres

towardmodular,heterogeneouscampusesand

1

definedbyextremesegregation.We1

cannotplaceaBSL-2biocomputingmoredeliberatelocationstrategies.

labrequiringnegativepressureandThedecisiontostopscalingclassicalandswitch

HEPAexhaustnexttoaclassicaltoanotherparadigmisn’tdrivenbyasingle

metriclikeflopsortransistorsize.It’sdrivenby

serveraisle.breakpointswherethephysicsoreconomicsof

classicalcomputingsimplycollapse.

0

0

8

1

0

1

0

DataCentreFutures:DataandCompute1

01

0

1

STRUCTURALPLAN

0

First,theoptimisationwall,whereclassicalalgorithmsClassicalcomputingisexpected

facecombinatorialexplosion.Whenaproblemrequirestostilldominatebyvolumeand

millionsofyearsofclassicalcompute,likecomplex

logisticsormaterialssimulation,youswitchtoeconomicfootprintin2045.

quantum.Quantumandbiocomputing

breakthroughsarereal,butthey

Second,thepowerwall.AclassicalAIrackneeds

20,000wattsforpatternrecognition.Whencoolingarenarrowbreakthroughs,not

infrastructurecan’tdissipatetheheatorpowerbudgetsgeneral-purposeones.

collapse,youswitchtoneuromorphiccomputingfor

energy-efficientedgeAI.Evenoptimisticroadmapspositionthemas

co-processorsaccessedthroughclassical

Third,thedensitywall.Siliconstoragehitsquantumorchestrationlayers,notstandalone

tunnellinglimitsaroundoneterabytepercubicinch.replacements.Soin2045,thedatacentreis0

DNAstores215petabytespergram.Whenthedatastillclassicalatitscore,justwithfarmore

centrerealestateforarchivalstorageexceedsthecostspecialisedcomputeislandsembeddedwithinit.

ofawet-labinterface,weswitchtobiocomputing.

Aglossaryoftermsisprovidedonpage19of

Finally,thelatencywall.Whenthespeedoflight0

becomesthebottleneck,suchashigh-frequencytradingthisreport.

orsensor-levelprocessing,weswitchtophotonic

computingattheedge.

9

0

DataCentreFutures:DataandCompute

Driversofchange

Driver1

Computeshiftsoutward,creatinga‘ladder-shaped’datacentrenetwork

600

Modelsshiftfrom‘talking’to‘doing’,Theshifttowards

requiring‘alwayson’inference.Thestrategicfocus

527.5

AIismovingfromgeneratingcontenttodecentralisationshiftstotheportfolio,

takingactions,shiftingcomputedemand.isreinforcedby500

LargeLanguageModels(LLMs)aregivingnotasinglesite.

waytoLargeActionModels(LAMs)thatdistributedusageof

observe,decide,andexecutecontinuously,

integratedintodailylife,frompersonalthemodels,which

Spaceasanexperimentalinfrastructuretier

devicesandhomestoworkplacesanduseslocalcompute,400

enterprisesystems.Atthefarendoftheladder,spaceisemerging

asanexperimentalinfrastructuretierfornew

Atthesametime,datafromsensors,whiletrainingstill

computearchitecture.Orbitaldatacentresare

wearables,IoTdevices,autonomoussystems,

300