摩根士丹利-印度科技（亚太区）：通过挑战者追逐增长-India Technology Asia Pacific：Chasing Growth Through Challengers-20260930

RESEARCH

Morganstanley

September30,202609:30PMGMT

IndiaTechnology|AsiaPacific

ChasingGrowthThroughChallengers

WepreferchallengersoverTier-1vendorsinthenewtechnologycycle,withhighergrowthvisibilityandTAMexpansion,andboldeffortshavingthepotentialtooffsetdeflationaryforces.

KeyTakeaways

WeinitiateatOverweightontwoIndiaITserviceschallengers–Persistentasastructuralbeneficiary,andHexawareasarecoveryplay.

Challengershavesustaineda10-40%premiumtolargecapssince2021andmayseefurtherpolarizationahead.

Leadingtheinvestmentcycle:Everybusinessandtechnologycyclebringsitsownopportunities/challengesandsetofbeneficiaries.Thelasttechnologycyclesawmid-tierfirmsemergeasoutperformerswhileactingaschallengers,ledbymultiple

successfactors,whichweargueremainrelevanteveninthecurrenttechnology

landscape.Challengershaveaseatatthelargedealtable,whichwasn'tthecaseatthestartofthelastcycle,andaremakingboldbetstoexpandtheirTAM,therebyleadinginvestmentinthiscycle,whichcanhelpthembetteroffsetdeflationary

forcesoverthecourseofthecycle.Inthecontextofhighergrowthvisibilityvsthetier-1players,wethinkvaluationscouldcontinuetopolarizeinfavorofchallengers.

Initiateontwostocks,PersistentandHexaware,withanOWrating:WeviewPersistentasanexecutionenginebasedonitshistoricaltrackrecordofpivotingtowardshighgrowthareas,eventhoughthedigestionofamegascaleacquisitioncantestitsexecutioncapabilitiesoverthecourseofthenexttwoyears.WeviewHexawareasarecoveryplaywithacashflowfranchisesuperiortopeers.Client-specificissueshaveplaguedperformancesincere-listing,butweexpectthesetoreverse,allowingimprovinggrowthtrendstoplayout.

Growthvisibilityandvaluationsrelativetogrowthunderpinourorderof

preference:Weassignanorderofpreferencewithinthechallengersbasedon

growthvisibilityaswellasonvaluationsrelativetorevenuegrowth.PreferCoforge>MphasiS>Hexaware>Persistent>LTM.

Keyriskstoourcall:a)Sector-leveldeflationinITservicesspendingimpactsthesestructuralstoriesmorethanourexpectations;b)client-specificissues,giventhat

revenueconcentrationismuchhigherthanforthelargercapnames;c)riskofequitysupplyfromprivateequityplayersand/oraqualifiedinstitutionsplacement(QIP)toeasecashflows.

MoRGANSTANLEyINdiACompANyPRivATELimiTEd+SulabhGovila,CFA

MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswith

companiescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanley

Research.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanley

Researchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.

+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoFINRArestrictionson

communicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.

FouNDAtioN

EquityAnalyst

Sulabh.Govila@

+91226118-2249

GauravRateria

EquityAnalyst

Gaurav.Rateria@

ShreshthaChopra

ResearchAssociate

+91226118-2237

Shreshtha.Chopra@

SakshiRana

+91226118-2227

ResearchAssociate

Sakshi.Rana@

+91226118-1002

INdiaTEcHNoloGy

AsiaPacific

IndustryViewIn-Line

WHAT’sCHANGED

PersistentSystemsLtd.(PERS.NS)

From

To

Rating

NA

Overweight

PriceTarget

HexawareTechnologiesLimited(HEXW.NS)

Rs0.00

Rs6,150.00

From

To

Rating

NA

Overweight

PriceTarget

CoforgeLtd(COFO.NS)

Rs0.00

Rs600.00

From

To

PriceTarget

LTMLimited(LTIM.NS)

Rs2,060.00

Rs2,300.00

From

To

PriceTargetRs4,000.00Rs4,220.00

2

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ExecutiveSummary

Preferchallengersovertier-1vendors;initiateontwostocks

Whychallengersarestructurallybetterpositionedthaninthelastcycle?

ChallengerCEOsrunleaner,fasterdecision-makingprocessesandgiveclients

directCXOaccessratherthanroutingdecisionsthroughescalationchains.

Challengersnowhavediversifiedserviceofferingsandarewillingtofund

investmentsthroughthebalancesheet,makingthemformidablechallengersatthelargeseatdealtable,asreflectedintheincreasingsizeandvelocityoftheirdeal

wins.Separately,challengers'expandingTAMthroughinvestmentsandtheadventoftechnologytoolsoffersgreateroffsetstodeflationaryforces,whichbodeswellforgrowthmomentum.

PersistentSystems-InitiateatOW(PTRs6,150,19%upside)–WeexpectUS$revenueandEPSCAGRsof17-18%overCY26-28,bankingonPersistent'smulti-

yeartrackrecordofoutperformance,builtondeepverticaldomainexpertise,anexpandingcapabilityset(productengineeringtoenterpriseITtoAI-ledrevenue

pools),asteadydeliveryoflargedealwins(US$50-150mn)andimprovingaccountmining.Marginsareexpectedtoimprovemodestly,withheadroomforSG&A

leverageandanygrossmarginbenefitfromSASVA-leddeals(Persistent’s

generativeAI-enabledengineeringplatform)partiallyoffsetbycontinued

investmentsinthebusiness.Onvaluation,thePTimpliesa33xtwo-yearforwardP/E—a12%premiumtoCoforge,versusthe10-40%rangeseenhistorically.KeymonitorablesincludeapotentialQIPoverhang,integrationriskfromthelarge-

scaleNagarroacquisition,elevatedexposuretotimeandmaterial(T&M)contracts,theAmericas,andtheHi-Techvertical,andkey-manrisk.

Hexaware-InitiateatOW(PTRs600,24%upside)-WeexpectUS$revenueandEPSCAGRsof~9.5%and17%,respectively,overCY26-28,withthePTimplyinga21xtwo-yearforwardP/E—inlinewithMphasis.Hexaware'sright-to-wincase

comesfromabroadserviceportfolio,theabilitytoorganicallyidentifyandscalenewserviceofferings,adiversifiedvertical/clientmix,andasuperiorcash-flow

profile,underscoredbyitssuccessinwinningmostvendor-consolidationexercisesacrossitstop20accounts.IncrementalupsidecancomefromdeepeningitsfocusonHi-TechandBanking,fillinggeographicgaps(MiddleEast,partsofEurope),

shiftingtovertical-specificplatforms,positioningitselfasasoftware-as-a-service(SaaS)disruptor,andrebuildingitshuntingandlarge-dealpursuitteams.Keyrisks

arecontinueddelaysindealramp-ups,stalledbudgetsinalready-consolidatedtopaccountsalongsidefastercosttakeoutselsewhere,newservicesfailingtooffsetdeflation,andseniormanagementchurnundertheincomingCEOdelayingthe

recovery.

Wherearewedifferent?ConsensushasmixedviewsonPersistentandHexawareowingtovaluationsandskepticismaroundHexaware'sgrowthrecovery,

respectively,whereweareconstructiveonboththenames.OurEPSnumbersarelargelyinlinewithconsensusonPersistentwhilebeingaheadofconsensusfor

Hexaware.

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Exhibit1:Orderofpreferenceamongstchallengers

Coforge

COFO.NS

Mphasis

MBFL.NS

Hexaware

HEXW.NS

Persistent

PERS.NS

LTM

LTIM.NS

RatingOverweight

Overweight

Overweight

Overweight

Equal-weight

TradingCurrencyINR

INR

INR

INR

INR

PriceTarget2,300

2,730

600

6,150

4,220

CurrentPrice1,722

2,154

482

5,162

3,936

Upside/(Downside)(%)34%

27%

24%

19%

7%

MarketCap(inUSDmm)12,142.8

4,253.6

3,073.9

8,220.5

12,156.0

AvgDailyTradedVol(inUSDmm)48.1

14.6

5.2

36.3

19.4

StreetView:Ratings

Buy/Overweight|||||||||||||||||||||83%

|||||||||||||||||69%

||||||||||||||56%

||||||||||||47%

|||||||||||||51%

Hold/Equal-weight|3%

||||17%

||||||22%

||||||22%

|||||22%

Sell/Underweight|||14%

|||14%

||||||22%

||||||||31%

|||||||27%

BullCaseValue2,850

3,500

850

7,350

5,500

Upside(%)66%

62%

76%

42%

40%

BearCaseValue1,250

1,800

400

3,450

2,850

Downside(%)-27%

-16%

-17%

-33%

-28%

Risk/RewardSkew2.4

3.8

4.5

1.3

1.4

MorganStanleyEstimates

FY27eINR

INR

INR

INR

INR

Sales253,370

183,904

153,146

185,555

497,241

EBITDA50,924

32,794

23,700

35,489

87,455

EBIT40,071

27,645

20,047

30,604

75,340

EPS54.67

112.53

21.76

135.33

196.10

FY28e

Sales295,594

201,357

168,239

212,128

550,851

EBITDA58,721

36,713

25,940

39,932

95,887

EBIT46,571

30,671

22,065

34,538

81,723

EPS71.69

124.53

26.13

172.30

220.72

FY27MSevs.ConsensusMean

Sales2.3%

0.4%

-0.6%

-0.6%

3.6%

EBITDA2.3%

-3.7%

-2.8%

-0.1%

1.6%

EBIT3.1%

-1.7%

-3.5%

0.0%

0.2%

EPS-7.5%

0.0%

-6.5%

-5.8%

-4.9%

FY28MSevs.ConsensusMean

Sales3.3%

0.1%

-0.4%

-7.1%

5.6%

EBITDA2.4%

-2.0%

-4.8%

-5.3%

1.8%

EBIT3.0%

-1.5%

-5.5%

-3.8%

3.1%

EPS0.3%

-1.6%

-6.1%

-2.0%

-3.5%

ValuationMultiplesatLastClose

FY27e

P/E31.5x

19.1x

22.2x

38.1x

20.1x

EV/EBIT29.9x

13.9x

13.6x

25.9x

14.9x

EV/EBITDA23.5x

11.8x

11.5x

22.2x

12.8x

EV/Sales4.7x

2.1x

1.8x

4.1x

2.3x

FCFYield1.3%

6.8%

4.8%

1.2%

3.3%

FY28e

P/E24.0x

17.3x

18.5x

30.0x

17.8x

EV/EBIT25.3x

12.6x

12.3x

21.9x

13.3x

EV/EBITDA20.1x

10.5x

10.4x

18.9x

11.3x

EV/Sales4.0x

1.9x

1.6x

3.6x

2.0x

FCFYield1.6%

3.6%

5.4%

1.5%

3.9%

ImpliedMultiplesonMSPriceTarget

FY27e

P/E42.1x

24.3x

27.6x

45.4x

21.5x

EV/EBIT39.7x

17.9x

17.2x

31.0x

16.0x

EV/EBITDA31.2x

15.1x

14.6x

26.6x

13.8x

EV/Sales6.3x

2.7x

2.3x

4.9x

2.4x

FY28e

P/E32.1x

21.9x

23.0x

35.7x

19.1x

EV/EBIT33.7x

17.0x

16.8x

27.5x

15.5x

EV/EBITDA26.7x

14.2x

14.3x

23.7x

13.2x

EV/Sales5.3x

2.6x

2.2x

4.5x

2.3x

StockPricePerformance

1Month(14.5%)

(12.2%)

(12.9%)

(12.1%)

(15.8%)

3Month14.8%

(2.5%)

(6.8%)

20.3%

6.8%

1Year11.7%

(18.7%)

(27.3%)

4.0%

(22.0%)

YTD3.4%

(22.8%)

(37.2%)

(17.5%)

(35.0%)

Source:MorganStanleyResearch,ThomsonReuters(consensusmean).e=MorganStanleyResearchestimates.Pricesasof29.09.2026.Note:Hexaware'sfinancialyearendsonDecember31st,FY27aboveisitsreportedCY26,FY28isCY27.

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Preferchallengersovertier-1vendorsinthenewtechnologycycle

1.SuccessfactorsfromthedigitalcyclestillseemrelevantintheGenAIcycle

Wethinkthefactorsthatledtothesuccessofmid-tiervendorsinthedigitalcycle

includedfocusedinvestmentsinhighgrowthareasthatexpandedtheirTAM,asurgein

shortcycleprojectsthatprovidedafootinthedoor,andaggressive,executionfocused

managementthatprovidedCXOlevelaccesstoclientsandshowedagilityindelivery/dealstructuring-allofthesefactorsseemrelevantinthenewtechnologycycleaswell.

IncreaseinTAM

Inthelastcycle,challengersparticipatedinnewtechnologyspendingbymakingfocusedinvestmentsinhigh-growthareasintheirniche/domainsegments,whichhelpedthem

increasetheiraddressablemarket.PersistentwasabletosuccessfullytransitionfromanoffshoreproductdevelopmentfocustoachallengerinEnterpriseIT.Coforgeexpandeditsservice-lineportfolio,addedsub-verticalsandnewgeographiesalongtheway,increasingitsaddressablemarket.

Inthecurrentcycleaswell,challengersareusingtheirbalancesheetstoincreasetheiraddressablemarketbyexpandingtheirgeographicpresenceandservice-linecapabilities,whilealsotargetingnewTAMthatmightopenupwiththeadventofthenewtechnologycycle,eventhoughtheintensityofsuchinvestmentsappearstobegreater.

Exhibit2:Challengers-TAMexpansionbydeepeninggeographicpenetrationandservicecapabilities

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyresearch

Clientexperimentationledinitiallytosmall-sizedprojects,whichopeneddoorsformid-tiervendorswithproactivesolutions

Asenterprisesenteredthedigitaltransformationcyclefrom2015onward,muchofthe

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earlyspendingwasn'tcommittedtolarge,multi-yeartransformationprograms-itbeganassmaller,exploratorypilots,proofsofconcept,anddepartmental-levelexperimentsasclientstestednewtechnologiesbeforecommittingseriousbudgetstothem.This

experimentationphasematteredenormouslyformid-tiervendors,whichusedtheseprojectsasafootinthedoor-theycouldwintheinitialpilotoncapabilityand

responsivenessratherthanpriceorbrand.Overtime,asthesepilotsmaturedintofull-scaleprograms,theycompoundedintoaccount-miningopportunities.

Inthecurrentcycle,whilelargedealscontinuetobepartofthepipelineandorderinflow,theyaremoredrivenbycostoptimizationandinvolvevendorconsolidationandthe

infusionofAIintothecurrentpacketofwork.Thenewpacketofwork,whichrepresentsnewTAMopeningup,appearstobemoreproject-basedandhenceshorter-term,similartothelastcycle.

Exhibit3:Dealsizesinthedigitalcyclereflectedasurgeinshorttermengagements

Source:MphasiS2019AnalystDayPresentation

Verbatimcommentary-TCSCEO-1QF27resultsconcalltranscript

AIrevenueisnotlikeatraditionalrevenuewherethereisalotofannuityrevenueinvolved.Thisissomethingthatmoreormanyoftheseprojectstendtobeonequarter,twoquarterprojects.So,wherewecompleteandwehavetowinagainnewprojectsandaccruetherevenue,deliverandaccruetherevenue.

Aggressivemanagementwithachallengermindset

MostCEOsofchallengerfirmshadpriorexperienceattier-1firmsandbuiltleadership

teamsfromthesefirmsand/orwerebackedbyprivateequityplayers.Theyhadseenscaleandknewthedecision-making/bureaucraticlayerstheywerecompetingagainst,and

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understoodthatstrippingtheseoutcouldacceleratedecision-making.Theywereagileintheirapproach;forexample,theywerewillingtoprovideonsitedeliverywithexperiencedresourcesvsincludingfreshersfromoffshoretomanagethepyramid.Theywerewillingtodisruptthemselvesfastertogainmarketshare.Withmanagementfromthepreviouscyclestillatthehelm,challengershaveanadvantageinthenewtechcyclevstier-1vendors.

CXOlevelaccesstoclients

ThephilosophywithwhichchallengersoperateinvolvesprovidingCXO-levelaccessto

clients,whichheldthemingoodsteadinthelastcycle.Theirseniorleadersarepersonallyintheroomformajoraccountconversationsandmakereal-timecommercialanddeliverycommitmentsthatwouldotherwiserequireamulti-weekinternalescalationchain.

Ontheflipside,wealsobelievethatthismodelcouldhaveascaleceilingatsomestage.CXO-levelpersonalengagementworkswhenaCEOcanplausiblybeinvolvedinthetop20-50relationshipsthatmatter-itbecomesstructurallydifficultonceacompanyhas

hundredsofaccounts,aslargecapsdo.Largecapsarebuiltarounddelegatedaccount

managementforexactlythatreason.Aschallengersscale,itwilleventuallybetested

whetherthepersonal-engagementmodelcanstillfunctionthesameway,orwhethertheywillneedtobuildthesamelayeredaccount-managementstructuretheycurrently

competeagainst.

Forthenextfewyears,however,wethinkprovidingCXO-levelengagementcancontinuetoprovideastructuraladvantagetoChallengers.

2.Challengersnowalsohaveaseatatthelargedealtable,whichwasn’tthecaseatthestartofthedigitalcycle

Atthestartofthelasttechnologycyclein2015-16,challengersdidnothavetherevenuescale(eitherintotalorbyvertical),depthofserviceofferingsorP&Lsizerequiredtotakeonlargedeals(asmostofthesedealsaremargin-dilutiveintheinitialstages).Eventoday,thethresholdforalargedealforchallengerscouldbemuchlowerthanitisforlarger

peers.Asanexample,alargedealforchallengerscouldbedefinedasadealwithatotalcontractvalueofUS$10-20mn,whereasforlargerpeers,thiscouldbedefinedasUS

$50mn+oftotalcontractvalue.

However,challengershavescaledmuchfasterthanlarge-cappeersoverthelasttenyears,havediversifiedtheirserviceofferingsandarewillingtofundinvestmentsthroughthe

balancesheet,makingthemformidablechallengersatthelarge-dealtable.Thisisreflectedintheincreasingsizeandvelocityoftheirdealwins.

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Exhibit4:Coforge:Increasingsizeandvelocityofdealwins

9

11

11

12

14

21

FY21FY22

●20mn+

45mn+

●30mn

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch

FY23

US$50mn+

50mn+.100mn+

FY24FY25FY26

300mn+

1bn+

US$50mn+

US$50mn+

400mn+

Exhibit5:Persistentkeydealwins:increasingdealsizeovertheyears

US$650mn

US$50mn+

US$50mn+

US$50mn+

US$100mn

US$50mn+

US$60mn+

US$70mn

US$115mn+

US$75-100mn

US$80mn+

US$100mn

FY21FY22FY23FY24FY25FY26F27(sofar)

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch

3.Leadingtheinvestmentcycleinthenewtechnologyparadigm

Inthelasttechnologycycle,tier-1vendorsmadeinvestmentsintheformoftrainingandreskilling,developmentoftoolsandaccelerators,andashifttowardshigheronsite

revenue,whichcarrieslowergrossmargins.Inthenewtechnologycycle,inadditiontotheinvestmentsneededinthelastcycle,challengersaregoingastepfurther,makingbold

betsandexpandingtheiraddressablemarketthroughgeographicandcapabilityexpansiontoremainrelevantinthenewtechnologyparadigm.

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Exhibit6:ROCEprofile(top5largecaps)-InvestmentsatthestartofthelastcycleledROCEtodecline,andittook6-7yearstoreverttoF15levels

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24

FY25

FY26

27.0%

25.0%

23.0%

21.0%

19.0%

17.0%

15.0%

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch

Exhibit7:CashROCEprofile(challengers)-Leadingtheinvestmentcycle

25.0%

20.0%

15.0%

10.0%

5.0%

0.0%

FY24

FY25

FY26

FY27E

FY28E

FY29E

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearchestimates

Exhibit8:Revenue/averageheadcount(US$'000)-Challengersusedthelastcycletonarrowthegapwithtier-1vendorsandnowappeartobeinflectingevenaheadofthelargecaps

56

52

48

44

40

FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24FY25FY26

Revenue/averageheadcount(US$'000)forTier-IplayersRevenue/averageheadcount(US$'000)forChallengers

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyestimates.Note:TierIplayers:TCS,Infosys,Wipro(Services),HCLT(Services),TechM.Challengers:Persistent,Hexaware,Coforge,MphasisandLTM.

4.Challengersımarketsharegainsfromtier-1vendorscouldcontinue;valuationscouldcontinuetopolarizeintheirfavor,andtheycouldexpandthevaluationpremiumasagroupvsthetier-1vendors

Challengershavebeengainingrelativemarketsharevstier-1vendorsoverthelastdecade.Wethinkthiscancontinuegiventhecontinuedrelevanceofthesuccessfactorsseenin

thedigitalcycle,thefasterpaceofinvestmentbychallengersandtheirseatatthelarge-

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dealtable,whichtheydidnothaveatthestartofthelastcycle.Exhibit9:RevenuegrowthcomparisonacrossITServicesplayers(US$Mn,%)

TCS

Infosys

HCLTech

Wipro

TechM

LTM

Coforge

Mphasis

Persistent

Hexaware

LTTS

Cyient

KPIT

Zensar

TataTech

Birlasoft

35,000

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

-

30.0%

25.0%

20.0%

15.0%

10.0%

5.0%

0.0%

LargeCapsMidCaps

FY265yrCAGR(FY21-26)%

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch

Exhibit10:Relativemarketshare(adjustedforlargeacquisitions)-Challengershavebeengainingmarketshare,whichweexpecttocontinueinourforecasts

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24

FY25

FY26

FY27

FY28

FY29

16%

14%

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

TierIplayers,LHSChallengers,RHS

100%

80%

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearchestimates

ChallengersusedtotradeatadiscounttolargecapsbeforethedigitalcyclestartedinFY17-18,giventhattheyfounditdifficulttoscaleagainstthecostarbitragelargecaps

wereabletoprovide.However,theadventofthedigitalcyclechangedthat,aslegacy

businessesweredisruptedandchallengershadlimitedexposuretosuchbusinesses,

allowingthemtoactaschallengersvslargecapsinthepursuitofnewTAMthatopenedup.Sincethen,challengershavetradedatapremiumtolargecapsonaverage,whichhas

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beensustained,especiallysince2021,largelyinthe20-40%range.Withrevenuegrowthconstrainedinthesector,drivenbybothmacroandtechnology-cycle-ledfactors,wethinkthepremiumhasscopetopolarizefurtherinfavorofchallengers,whichcontinuetodrivesignificantlyhighergrowthvslargecaps.

Exhibit11:Valuationgaptrendsbetweenlarge-capandmid-capITplayers

45.0

40.0

35.0

30.0

25.0

20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

100%

80%

DigitalCycle(FY18

toFY23)

COVID-19:

SharppullbackpostCOVID-19

asdigital

transformationtimelinesgotcompressed

InfraCycle

(FY10toFY14)

40.4%

20%

13.3x

18.7x

2023&2024slowdownwasmoregradualinnatureand

hencerecoverywillalsobe-40%moregradualthanpast

periods

Jun'16

BREXITreferendum:

Slowandprotracted

growthpostBREXITreferendumas

businesseswereintransitionphase

NewTech

Transition

(FY26onwards)

GFCslowdown:

sharppullbackpost

GFCslowdown

-20%

-60%

40%

60%

0%

-