麦肯锡 -2026 中国汽车消费者洞察：由消费者引领变革 China Auto Consumer Insights 2026 Consumers set the pace

McKinsey

&Company

GreaterChina

ChinaAutoConsumerInsights2026:

Consumerssetthepace

The10theditionofMcKinsey'sautomotiveconsumersurvey:China'scar

buyersrevealwherevalueisheading-andwhytheroadaheadisexcitingforconsumerseverywhere.

McKinseyChinaAutoConsumerSurvey:Adecadeofinsights

MeKinsey

&Comipxary

Findingthefastlane:

McKinseyChinaAuto

ConsumerInsights2019

201620172019

EmergingtrendsinChina'sautomarket

McKinsey

&Company

McKnuyChnakataCanurarragta2021

Theracetowin:How

automakerscansucceedin

2021

McKinsey

&Company

ChinaAutoConsumerInsights2026:

Consumerssetthepace

ThaTthedienadnmrammdhacaranrurer:h

2026

2023

2025

2024

ChinaAutoConsumerlnsights2026:Consumerssetthepace

Aboutthereport

ThisreportpresentsdatafromMcKinsey'stenthChinaAutoConsumerSurvey,whichtracksthebehaviorandpreferencesofChineseautoconsumers.

一Thesurveywasconductedinthefirstquarterof

2026usingonlinesampling,with2,826respondentscompletingthefullsurvey.

-Itcovered19majorcitiesacrossChina,spanningtier-1,tier-2,tier-3,andtier-4cities,andtheNorth,Northeast,East,CentralandSouth,Southwest,andNorthwest

regions.

-Respondentswerecategorizedbyage,income,car-purchasingexperience,andcurrentvehiclebrandandtype.Thereportanalyzesconsumerattitudes,brandpreferences,purchasinghabits,andcarexperienceindepth.

Authors

AlexanderWill

DanielBirke

MingyuGuan

ThomasFang

TonyZhou

thepace

Foreword

Overthepastyear,debateaboutChina'sautomotivemarkethasgrownincreasinglyintenseandpolarized.Howmuchfurthercanthemarketgrow?Isdemandsustainableoverthelongterm?Canelectrificationmaintainmomentumoncepurchasetaxincentivesarephasedout?Andaretoday'sinvestmentsinvehicleintelligenceashort-livedboomorthestartofalong-termshift?

Againstthisbackdrop,webelieveitistimetotakeastepbackandadoptamoremeasuredviewgroundedinindustryfundamentals.

McKinseyhaspublishedChinaAutoConsumerInsightssince2016toprovideaclearandobjectiveperspectiveontheautomarket.Followingthe2025survey,wearereleasingourtenthanniversaryspecialedition,whichaimstoanswerthreefundamentalquestions:

-Whatforcesaredrivingthemarket?

-Hasthemarketstructuremateriallychanged?

-Howareconsumers-theultimateforcebehindeveryshiftinChina'sautomarket-thinkingandmakingdecisions?

ThisreportaddressesthesequestionsandoutlinesacleartrajectoryforChina'sautoindustryoverthecomingdecade.

China'sautomarketfundamentals:Stable,yetbounded

Coreindicatorssuchasreplacementcycles,vehicleownership,andconsumerwillingnesstopurchasesuggestthatautodemandremainsstronginChina.Newcarsalesbegantodeclineinthesecondhalfof2025andcontinuedtosoftenintothefirstquarterof2026,butannualpassengervehiclesalesareexpectedtoremainatabout24millionunitsinthemedium-tolong-term.

Lookingbackonthepastdecade,China'snewcarsaleshaveremainedrelativelyhigh

despitemultipleshocks,asignofstrongmarketresilience.Comparedwithotherdevelopingcountries,Chinaleadsinper-capitanewcarsales.Morethan80percentofyoungand

middle-agedmenholdadriver'slicense,approachinglevelsintheUnitedKingdomandtheUnitedStates.Carownershipper1,000licenseddrivershasreached609,closetosomedevelopedmarkets,andabout30percentofcar-owninghouseholdsnowownmultiple

vehicles-alsonearingmature-marketlevels.

However,socioculturalandinfrastructureconstraintsmeanthatanysteady-stateannualsalesforecastsignificantlyabove24millionunitswouldrequireaggressivesocialand

demographicassumptions.AutodemandinChinahasnotbeenfullytappedout,butitiscappedbydemographicandsocialstructures.Short-termfluctuationsmaybeshapedbypoliciesandindustrycycles,butthemedium-tolong-termtrajectoryremainsstructurallyconstrained.

DanielBirke,MingyuGuan,ThomasFang,andTonyZhou,"ChinaAutoConsumerlnsights2025:Gainingmomentum,"McKinsey,September30,2025.

ChinaAutoConsumerlnsights2026:Consumerssetthepace3

Priceversusvalue:Technologicalinnovationisbackinthespotlight

RecentpricecompetitioninChina'sautomarkethascontinuedtopushvehiclepricesdown.Thishas

erodedindustryprofitabilityandreinforcedthebeliefamongconsumersthatdelayingpurchases

willyieldabetterdeal-promptingmanytopostponebuyingdecisions.Amongrespondentswho

purchasedavehicleinthepastyear,theshareholdinganegativeviewofpricecompetitionwasaboutsixpercentagepointshigherthantheshareholdingapositiveview.Pricecompetition,inotherwords,isbecominglesseffectiveatstimulatingdemandandincreasinglycorrosivetoconsumerconfidence.

Atthesametime,improvementsintechnology-drivenexperiencesareemergingasacorefactorinpurchasedecisions.Inamarketwheresupply-sidecapabilitiesareadvancingrapidly,consumerscontinuetotradeup,butnolongersimplybyspendingmore.Systematicimprovementsinuser

experiencehavebecomeameaningfulandsufficientformofupgradeintheirownright.

Afundamentalreshapingofbrandperception

Inthisyear'ssurvey,"brand”climbedinimportanceasakeybuyingfactor(KBF)forelectricvehicles(EVs),movingfromfifthplaceinpreviousyearstosecond,justbehind"rangeandchargingtime."2

Thissupportsourlong-standingviewthataselectrificationtechnologiesmatureandperformance

differencesacrossoriginalequipmentmanufacturers(OEMs)narrowonindicatorssuchasrange,

chargingefficiency,andbatteryperformance,brandwillmatterasmuchtoEVconsumersasitalreadydoesintheinternalcombustionengine(ICE)market.

OnceEVproductcompetitivenessclearsthebaselineperformancethreshold,brandscanagainactas"complexitycompressors,"helpingconsumersmakequickdecisionsinanincreasinglycomplexmarket.Butbrandvalueisnolongerdrivenprimarilybyheritageorcountryoforigin.ItisincreasinglyanchoredinanOEM'sabilitytoconsistentlydeliveronitstechnologypromisesandsustainlong-termcredibility.

Thisshiftisacceleratingdivergenceacrossbrands.OEMswithclearbrandpositioningandstrong

technologicalcapabilitiesarelikelytosecuremorestablemarketpositions,whilethosewithoutadistincttbrandidentitymayfaceincreasingchallenges.

Improvedpublicchargingexperiencemakesbatteryelectricvehiclesthepreferredchoice

Chineseconsumers'confidenceinbatteryelectricvehicles(BEVs)reboundedin2026,drivenprimarilybytheacceleratedrolloutofcharginginfrastructureandmarkedimprovementsinexpresswaycharging.Mostrespondentsexpectpublicchargingtomatchtheconvenienceofrefuelingby2033.

Againstthisbackdrop,BEVshavebecomeconsumers'preferredchoicefortheirnextvehicle.Plug-inhybridelectricvehicles(PHEVs)andrange-extendedelectricvehicles(REEVs)remainimportanttran-sitionaloptions,buttheirappealrelativetoBEVsisexpectedtodiminishgraduallyaspublicchargingnetworksexpandandimproveinquality

2Unlessotherwisespecified,datainthisreportrefertoresultsfromtheMcKinseyChinaAutoConsumerSurvey2026.

4ChinaAutoConsumerInsights2026:Consumerssetthepace

ChinaAutoConsumerlnsights2026:Consumerssetthepace5

Advanceddriver-assistancesystemsandAIbecometruemust-havefeatures

Thisyear'ssurveyshowsthatadvanceddriver-assistancesystems(ADAS)arenolongerjustanice-to-havefeature;theyarenowembeddedacrossthefullpurchasingjourney-frompre-purchaseresearchandtrade-offsduringthepurchasedecisiontoongoinguseandover-the-air(OTA)updates.ConsumersincreasinglyseeadvancedADASasessential.

Atthesametime,consumersareincreasinglyeagerfor"Alagentsonwheels,"with

expectationsrisingsharplyfornext-generationAlinteractionsthatcanseamlesslyspan

tasks,scenarios,andoccupants.Competitioninvehicleintelligenceisshiftingfrom

superficialfeaturestackingtowarddeeplyintegratedsystemexperiences-acapabilitythatisbecomingcentraltohowOEMscaptureconsumermindshare.

AconsumerlensonthenextdecadeofChina'sautomarket

Consumersaresettingthetrendsinthismarket,notjustrespondingtothem.TheyrepresentoneofthemostimportantandrationalforcesdrivingthetransformationofChina'sauto

market.Theybasetheirpurchasingdecisionsonvehiclereplacementcyclesandprice

competition,whilealsoholdingclearexpectationsaboutbrandchoice,electrificationand

chargingexperience,intelligentdriving,andAlcapability.Asconsumersreshapethemarket,understandinghowtheythinkisoftenmorevaluablethaninterpretingshort-termdata.

Thisreportaimstohelpreadersreanchortheirunderstandinginkeyfactsamidcomplex

debate,returntomarketfundamentalsandconsumerinsight,andformclearer,morerobustviewsonhowChina'sautomarketcouldevolveoverthenextdecade.

0

0900:0309EeE00

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ChinaAutoConsumeInsights2926:Consumersethepace

Short-termvolatilityversuslong-term

equilibrium:ThestructuralboundariesofChina'ssteady-stateautodemand

Keyinsight:China'sautodemandhasnotbeenexhausted,butits

long-termrangeisanchoredbydemographicandsocialstructures.Themarketenvironmentremainshighlydynamic,shapedbyshiftingpolicy,heightenedpricevolatility,andswingsinconsumersentiment.Butitsfoundationrestsonmorestable,harder-to-disruptstructuralfactors,includingreplacementcycles,purchasingpower,thesizeofthelicensed-driverpopulation,vehiclepenetration,andparkingconditions.WebelieveChina'sautodemandcouldcontinuetofluctuatewithinarangedefinedbythesedemographicandsocialstructures.Short-termvolatilityisinevitable,butlong-termequilibriumhasidentifiableboundariesandstructuralanchors.

1.China'sautomarketremainsresilient;theshort-termsalesdeclinedoesnotsignalacollapseindemandw

China'snewcarsaleshavealreadysurpassedpre-COVID-19levels,reachingroughly110

percentof2019volumesby2025(Exhibit1).Mostmajordevelopedmarkets,bycontrast,

haveyettofullyrecover,highlightingnotonlytheresilienceofChina'sautomarketbutalsoitsstrongerunderlyingcapacityforself-sustainedrecovery.

Exhibit1

China'sautomarketshowsremarkableresilience,outpacingits

counterpartsinmajordevelopedeconomies.

Newcarsalesrelativetosalesin2019,Chinavstopdevelopedcountries,2023-25,index(2019=100)

China

105

Canada

SouthKoreaUS

Spain

Japan

UK

85

Italy

Germany

France

202320242025

PreCOVID-19benchmark

100

95

80

110

Source:ChinaNewCarInsuranceRegistrationDatabase;S&PGlobal

McKinsey&Company

Chinahasbecomethemostcriticaldriverofglobalpassengervehicledemand,with

incrementalsalesaccountingforroughlyone-thirdofglobalgrowthfrom2019to2025

(Exhibit2).WithoutChina,theglobalmarketwouldlikelynothavedeliverednetgrowth,asignthatChinaisnotonlytheworld'slargestsingleautomarket,butalsoacorestabilizerofsentimentandgrowthresilienceacrosstheglobalindustry

Exhibit2

Chinawasthetopcontributortoglobalcarsalesgrowthfrom2019to2025,

accountingforone-thirdofthetotalglobalincrease.

Breakdownofglobalpassengervehiclesales,2019-25,millionunits

4.7

2.2

ChinaOthereconomies

withsalesgrowth

Source:ChinaNewCarInsuranceRegistrationDatabase;S&PGlobal

McKinsey&Company

6.9

Globalgross

growth

-5.0

Economieswithsalesdecline

1.9

Globalnet

growth

Sincethesecondhalfof2025,China'sautomarkethasexperiencedvolatility,withsales

moderatingfromthehighsof2024(Exhibit3).Thisshiftstemslargelyfromtwoforces:the

phasingoutoftrade-inincentivesacrossmultipleregionsstartingfromthesecondhalfof

2025;andthehighsalesbaselinesetin2024-thestrongestyearsinceCOVID-19andthe

second-highestonrecord.GivenChina'spivotalroleintheglobalmarket,understandingbothitsshort-termvolatilityandlong-termequilibriumisessential.

8ChinaAutoConsumerInsights2026:Consumerssetthepace

Exhibit3

TheChinesepassengervehiclesectorhasbeennavigatingchallenging

headwindssincethefourthquarterof2025.

Chinapassengervehiclesalesvolumebyquarter,millionunits

2024totalsales:23.3million

78%yearonyear

2nd-bestsalesrecordinhistory

7.4

Trade-in

subsidies

graduallyphased

provinces/cities

sincethesecond

halfof2025,

resultinginsales

declineinthe

Q1

2024

Yearonyearchange,%16.5

2025totalsales:23.2million

-0.2%yearonyear

3rd-bestsalesrecordinhistory

5.95.7

2026YTD

(Mar)

-16.8

Q4

2025-13.6

Q2

2024

-5.5

Q4

2024

15.5

Q1

2025

22

Q3

20245.0

Q3

2025

3.2

Q2202513.2

fourthquarter

outinvarious

6.1

4.9

5.0

4.2

Note:Figuresmaynotsum,becauseofrounding.

'Bestsalesrecordinhistorytookplacein2017,with23.4millionunitsofdomesticsalesvolume.

Source:ChinaNewCarInsuranceRegistrationDatabase

McKinsey&Company

2.Underlyingdemandfundamentals:Strongrepurchaseintent,alargelicensed-driverpopulation,andrisingpurchasingpower

Inamarketofthisscaleandresilience,demandisdrivenbyseveralfactors,including:

(1)Purchaseintentrisessharplyasvehiclesapproachthereplacementwindow

China'sautomarkethasshiftedfromonedominatedbyfirst-timebuyerstooneincreasinglydrivenbyreplacementdemand.In2016,first-timebuyersaccountedfornearly70percentofconsumers,butby2022,thatsharehadfallentoroughly30percent.3³ReplacementdemandfromexistingcarownerswillbecriticaltoChina'sautomarketoverthenextdecade.

Oursurveyshowsthatasvehiclesageintothetypicalreplacementwindow,intenttoreplacerisessignificantlyamongChineseconsumers(Exhibit4).Onceavehicleageexceedsfive

years,replacementactivityacceleratesmarkedly:

一Asvehicleageincreasesfromthreetosixyears,theshareofconsumersplanningapurchasewithinthenextyearrisessignificantly.

3ZhouLijun,GaoYing,andBenyaShi,Multi-carfamilies:Anewblueoceanintheeraofexistingstock,YicheResearchInstitute,August28,2023.

ChinaAutoConsumerlnsights2026:Consumerssetthepace9

一Byseventonineyears,mostownersareactivelyconsideringreplacement;onlyasmallminoritychoosetodelay.

Thesefindingssuggestthatreplacementbehaviorcontinuestotrackthevehicleusagecycle,largelyunaffectedbyshort-termmarketvolatilityormacroeconomicuncertainty.

Exhibit4

Chineseconsumersshowstrongpurchaseintenttobuytheirnextcarwhen

enteringthereplacementwindow.

Consumers'nextvehicleplanbyageofcurrentvehicle,1%ofrespondents²

Replacementwindow………

After36months

Withinnext

13-36months

Withinnext

12months

Ageofcurrentcar

3

3years4years5years6years7years8years≥9years

1Question:Whenwillyoubuyyournextvehicle?

2Respondentswhoboughtacarintheprevious3yearsormore.

Source:McKinseyChinaAutoConsumerSurvey2026

McKinsey&Company

(2)Cornerstonesofsustainedgrowth:Anexpandinglicensed-driverbaseandrisingpurchasingpower

China'slicensed-driverpopulationandpassengervehicleownershiphavebothexpanded

steadilyinrecentyears,providingimportantsupportforautodemand(Exhibit5).From2019to2025,thelicensed-driverpopulationgrewfromabout400milliontoabout525million,withanaverageannualincreaseofroughly20million,thoughthepacehasslowedyearbyyear.

Vehicleownershipamonglicenseddrivershascontinuedtorise,withpassengervehicleparcper1,000licenseddriversincreasingfrom560to609since2019.Together,theexpandingdriverbaseandrisingvehiclepenetrationprovidetwopowerfulstructuralandlong-term

driversofdemandinChina'sautomarket.

10ChinaAutoConsumerInsights2026:Consumerssetthepace

Exhibit5

Thenumberoflicenseddriversandthecarparchaveexpandedsteadilyin

Chinaoverthepastdecade.

Chinalicense-holderpopulationandvehiclepenetration,2019-25

Netadditionoflicense

holders,millionpeople

License-holder

population,million

people

Carparcper1,000licenseddrivers

CAGR:-6.3%

2826

20

525

506

444

464486

418

397

CAGR:+1.4%

609

609

593

581

573

560

601

2019202020212022202320242025

Source:ChinaMinistryofPublicSecurity;NationalBureauofStatisticsofChina

McKinsey&Company

Chinesehouseholds'long-termpurchasingpowerisalsostrengthening.Astheeconomyandincomesgrow,urbanhouseholdsaremovingintohigherincomebrackets(Exhibit6).

By2035,mid-to-highandhigh-incomehouseholdsareexpectedtomakeuproughly70

percentofallurbanhouseholds-asharpincreasefrom2020.Vehiclepurchasingpower,inotherwords,isimprovingacrosstheboard:acarpurchaseisshiftingfromamajorexpenserequiringtrade-offswithotherspendingtoamoreaffordable,manageableconsumption

choice.Thistrendexplainsthepost-COVID-19resilienceofChina'sautomarketandprovidesacriticaleconomicfoundationforastable,long-termdemandequilibrium.

ChinaAutoConsumerlnsights2026:Consumerssetthepace11

Exhbit6

12ChinaAutoConsumerInsights2026:Consumerssetthepace

Theupper-middleclasscouldrepresentabout70percentofChineseurban

householdsby2035.

Annualhouseholdincome,RMB,Urbanhouseholdsbyincome,millions

2025

19

35

146

2035

Estimated

48

150

112

2020

10

9

76

2030

using2020pr

Highincome

Upper-middleincome

icesasabenchmark

Estimated

29

97

133

Affluent(>345,000)

Massaffluent

(230,000-345,000)

Upperaspirant

(160,000-230,000)

119

33

100

28

85

24

27

Middleandlower-mddle

income

174

Aspirant(85,000-160,000)

43

34

38

LowerincomePoor(<55,000)

Loweraspirant(55,000-85,000)

30

Upper-middleandhigh-incomeshare,%2752

62

69

Source:McKinseyGlobalInstituteInsightsChinaMacroModel;McKinseyGlobalInstituteanalysis

McKinsey&Company

3.China'sautomarketismoreadvancedthanothermajordevelopingcountries

Chinastandsoutamongmajordevelopingcountriesonseveralkeymetrics,includingsalesintensityandmarketmaturity.

(1)Chinashowssignificantlyhighersalesintensitythanotherdevelopingcountries

Comparingmajordevelopingcountriesbypercapitanewvehiclesales(salesper1,000people)andGDPpercapita,Chinastandsoutamongthosewithpopulationsabove50million-evenrelativetodevelopingcountrieswithhigherGDPpercapita(Exhibit7).

Exhibit7

ChinaAutoConsumerlnsights2026:Consumerssetthepace13

Amongpeersatsimilarstagesofdevelopment,Chinaleadsinnewvehiclesales.

Passengervehiclesalesper1,000peoplevsGDPpercapita,

fordevelopingnationswith>50millionpopulation,2020-25

●China●Otherdevelopingnations

Passengervehicle

salesper

1,000people,

units

20,000

GDPpercapita(nominalGDP),USD

Source:ChinaNewCarInsuranceRegistrationDatabase;IMF;S&PGlobal;WorldBank

McKinsey&Company

(2)China'sautomarketisrelativelymatureinlicensepenetrationandvehicleownershipamonglicenseholders

Driver'slicensepenetrationamongChinesemalesaged18to49hasalreadysurpassedtheUnitedKingdom'sandisclosetoUSlevels(Exhibit8).Thisindicatesthatwithinthiscoreautodemandgroup,holdingalicenseisnolongerameaningfulconstraint.

LicensepenetrationamongChinesewomenandamongmiddle-agedandolderadults,

however,remainswellbelowthelevelsseenintheUnitedKingdomandUnitedStates.Thegapstemslargelyfromsocioculturalfactorsandthereforecannotbeeasilyclosedthroughshort-termpolicymeasuresoreconomicchange.Penetrationamongthesegroupsis

expectedtorisegradually,butestablisheddivisionofdrivingrolesandtheculturalnormofadultchildrencaringforagingparentsmakeasignificantincreaseunlikelyintheshorttomediumterm.

Exhibit8

14ChinaAutoConsumerInsights2026:Consumerssetthepace

LicensepenetrationamongChina'syoungandmiddle-agedpopulationisnearingUKandUSlevels,withlimitedgrowth.

License-holderpenetrationamongpopulation,

ChinavsUSvsUK,bygender/age,%US(2024)■China(2025)

MaleFemale

18-49

50-59

≥60

88

93

79

66

92

82

25

71

100100

DataforEnglandonly.

Source:ChinaMinistryofPublicSecurity;NationalBureauofStatisticsofChina;NationalTravelSurvey2024;UKDepartmentforTransport;Highwaystatistics

2024;FederalHighwayAdministration(FHWA),USDepartmentofTransportation

McKinsey&Company

AsChina'slicensed-driverpopulationisgraduallyapproachingitsupperlimit,themarkethasenteredarelativelymaturestagemarkedbyhighpenetrationandclearlydefinedstructuralboundaries.Futuresalesgrowthwilldependmoreonthepaceofcarreplacementthanonfurtherexpansionofthelicensed-driverbase.

Measuredbycarparcper1,000people,ChinastilllagswellbehinddevelopedmarketssuchasEurope,Japan,andtheUnitedStates.Thisprimarilyreflectsdemographicstructure

andlicensepenetrationratherthantheunderlyinglevelofmarketmaturity.Onaper1,000

licensed-driverbasis,China'svehicleownershipof609unitsisalreadyonparwithSouth

Korea,andthegapwiththeUnitedKingdom(about841units)andJapan(about762units)hasvisiblynarrowed(Exhibit9).VehicleownershipinChina,inotherwords,isalreadyrelatively

highamongthosewithrealisticpurchasingpotential.Themarkethasmovedpastthe

stageofscale-drivenexpansionandisevolvingintoamorematurephase,withstructurallyconstrainedheadroomforgrowth.

Exhibit9

VehiclepenetrationamonglicenseddriversinChinaisonparwiththatin

developedcountries.

Carparcper1,000peopleinChinavsdevelopedcountries,units

US2024

Germany2024

Japan2024

UK20241

SouthKorea2024

China2025

Carparcper1,000people

797

Carparcper1,000licenseholders

1,130

DataforEnglandonly

Source:ChinaMinistryofPublicSecurity;localgovernmentbenchmarkingrepotforEngland,LGInform;Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt(KBA);KoreanNationalPoliceAgency;JapanAutomobileManufacturersAssociation(JAMA);NationalBureauofStatisticsofChina;NationalPoliceAgencyofJapan;MinistryofLand,

Infrastructure,andTransportofSouthKorea;UKDepartmentforTransport;USFederalHighwayAdministration(FHWA);WorldBank

McKinsey&Company

(3)Demandfrommultivehiclehouseholdsiswellestablished,with

penetrationalreadyatarelativelyhighlevel

Multivehiclehouseholds-thoseowningmorethanoneprivatevehicle-now

accountforapproximately30percentofcar-owninghouseholdsinChina,

approachingUKlevels.Thissuggeststhatowningmultiplecarsisbecoming

lessaboutbasicmobilityandmoreamarkerofmaturingdemand(Exhibit10).

(4)Ashortageofparkingspaceisafurtherstructuralconstrainton

growth

ResidentialparkinginChinaremainsfarmoreconstrainedthaninmature

marketssuchasEuropeandtheUnitedStates.Basedonpublicresearchand

modelestimates,only44percentofChinesehouseholdsownadedicated

parkingspaceintheirresidentialcommunity,comparedwith65percentintheUnitedKingdomand63percentintheUnitedStates.⁴

4ShiqiOu,ZhenhongLin,XinHe,andStevenPrzesmitki,"Estimationofvehiclehomeparking

availabilityinChinaandquantificationofitspotentialimpactsonplug-inelectricvehicleownershipcost,"TransportPolicy,September30,2018,Volume68.

ChinaAutoConsumerlnsights2026:Consumerssetthepace15

Exhbit10

Amonghouseholdsthatownvehicles,China'srateofmultiplevehicle

ownershipisapproachingUKlevels.

Numberofcarsamongvehicle-owninghouseholds,ChinavsUKvsUS,%

Multiplecars

Onecaronly70

China2023

43

57

UK20241

64

36

US2024

DataforEnglandonly.

Source:ChinaMinistryofPublicSecurity;ChinaNewCarInsuranceRegistrationDatabase;NationalBureauofStatisticsofChina;ACS20241-yearestimates,USCensusBureau;NationalTravelSurvey2024,UKDepartmentforTransport;WorldBank;Yiche

McKinsey&Company

Parkingconditionsshapebothconvenienceandpurchaseintent.OEMscannotinfluence

parkingdirectly,butlimitedspacelowerstheceilingonownership.Whenparkingiscostlyoruncertain,evenhouseholdswithsufficientpurchasingpowertendtolimithowmanyvehiclestheyownorforgoasecondvehiclealtogether.

Residentialpatternsandurbanspatialstructuresareslowtochangeintheshorttomediumterm.Productupgrades,technologicaladvances,andpricingcanshiftquickly;improvementstoparkinginfrastructuretakelonger,costmore,anddependoncollaborationamongurbanplanningauthoritiesandotherpublic-sectorstakeholders.Asaresult,China'sautomarket

isunlikelytoreplicatethestep-changegrowthseeninsomematuremarketsthrougharapidincreaseinthenumberofcarsownedamongmulti-vehiclehousehold.

4.China'scarsalesaverageapproximately24millionunitsayear

China'sautomarkethasenteredasteady-statephase,withhighpenetrationandclear

structuralboundaries.Ontheonehand,passengervehicledemandissupportedbystrong

replacementandadditional-vehiclepurchases,moderategrowthinthelicensed-driver

population,andsteadilyimprovinghouseholdpurchasingpower.Ontheother,license

penetrationisapproachingitsstructuralceilingwithvehicleownershipamonglicenseddriversalreadymatchingsomedevelopedmarkets,theshareofmultivehiclehouseholdsisnearing

mature-marketlevels,andparkingconstraintsareunlikelytoeasemeaningfullyintheshort

term.Together,thesefactorslimitthepotentialforfurtherlarge-scaleexpansionofthemarket.

16ChinaAutoConsumerInsigh