麦肯锡 -硅料承压：人工智能对半导体行业的影响 Silicon squeeze AIs impact on the semiconductor industry

May2025

McKinsey

&Company

SemiconductorPractice

Siliconsqueeze:

AI'simpactonthe

semiconductorindustry

Alhasgeneratedexplosivegrowthinthesemiconductorindustry,butonlythetop5percentofcompanieshavebenefited.Howcantherestoftheindustrycatchup?

ThisarticleisacollaborativeeffortbyAbhijitMahindroo,AnupamaSuryanarayanan,andMarcdeJong,withJoKakarwadaandJwalitPatel,representingviewsfromMcKinsey'sSemiconductorsPractice.

Profitabilityandgrowthdynamicsinthe

semiconductorindustryhaveshifteddramaticallyinrecentyears.Theindustryasawholehas

experiencedimpressiveeconomicprofitgrowth,risingfrom$38billioninthe2000-09periodto$450billionin2010-19,accordingtoMcKinseyanalysis.InOctober2024,theMcKinseyGlobalInstitutenotedsemiconductorsasoneof18

industriespoisedtotransformthefuturebusinesslandscape,withanticipatedvalueofbetween$1.7trillionand$2.4trilionby2040.

WhileAI'stechnologicalrequirementsarefunnelingasignificantamountofinvestmentanddemand

totheindustry,theresultinggainsarelargely

concentratedamongahandfulofkeysuppliersanddistributors.Meanwhile,economicvaluegeneratedbytheremainingindustryplayersisincreasingly

squeezedalongwiththeirgrowthprospectsas

dynamicsshiftwiththeproliferationofAland

expansionofChinesemarketplayers.Infact,thetop5percentofcompaniesgeneratedallofthe

industry'seconomicprofitin2024,whileeconomicvaluegenerationfortheremaining95percentofcompaniesdeclinedsharply.

Valuecreationinthesemiconductor

industryisincreasinglyconcentrated

Economicprofitgrowth(returnsthatcompanies

inthesectorgenerateovertheircostofcapital)

inthesemiconductorindustryhasbeenstrong.

Relativetootherindustriesinthetop30foraverageeconomicprofitability,thesemiconductorindustryhasprogresseddramatically,goingfrom15thplacein2000-04tofourthplacein2016-20andthirdplacein2020-24.3

Initsfirstdecade,thesemiconductorindustry

generatedarelativelymodesteconomicprofitvalueofabout$38billion,mostofwhichwascontributedbyIntel,accordingtoMcKinseyanalysis.AsidefromIntel,otherindustryplayersgeneratedminimalor

negativeeconomicprofit.Thematuringindustry

consolidatedsignificantlyandscaledupthefoundrymodelinitsseconddecade;theemergenceof

newtechnologiessuchassmartphonescreated

newavenuesforgrowthbeyondcomputers.

Consequently,profitabilityincreaseddramatically,andtheindustrygenerated$450billionineconomicprofitbetween2010and2019.

Inaggregate,thesemiconductorindustryhas

largelybeenviewedashavingrecoveredfromits

2022-24downturn.?However,amoredetailed

analysisrevealsaverydifferentandmorenuancedview.Withtheexceptionofthefewtopplayersin

termsofeconomicvalue,theindustry'srecovery

hasbeenmuchslowerthanexpectedorhasyettotranspire.Meanwhile,theChinesesemiconductormarketcontinuestoexpand,evolve,andexert

pressureonmarketshareintheglobalindustry.Tonavigatethisgrowingenvironment,semiconductorcompaniesinallindustrysectorswillneedtofind

waystouseAl-drivenopportunities,expandinto

adjacencies,boostproductivity,andbuildresiliencetogeopoliticalshiftsandotherindustrydisruptions.

Between2020and2024,theindustrygenerated

anaggregateeconomicprofitvalueof$473billion-morethanitcreatedduringtheentiredecadeprior(Exhibit1).

ThisspikeineconomicprofitisprimarilyduetotheexplosivegrowthinAlandnewapplicationsfor

semiconductorsinmarketssuchasautomotiveandindustrial.Itisalsopartlyduetosomeabnormallyhighprofitsgeneratedduringpandemic-driven

productshortages.

Recently,however,thesectorhasseenadivergenceinvaluegeneration.In2023and2024,respectively,thetop5percentofindustryplayers-ledbyNvidia,TSMC,Broadcom,andASML-generated$121

1"Thenextbigarenasofcompetition,"McKinseyGlobalInstitute,October23,2024.

²StateoftheU.S.semiconductorindustry2024,SemiconductorIndustryAssociation,2024.

³OndrejBurkacky,MarcdeJong,AnkitMital,andNakulVerma,"Valuecreation:Howcanthesemiconductorindustrykeepoutperforming?,"McKinsey,October15,2021.

Siliconsqueeze:AI'simpactonthesemiconductorindustry2

Exhibit1

Thesemiconductorindustrycreatedmoreeconomicprofitfrom2020to2024thaninthepreviousdecade.

Economicprofit(EP)'valuecreationforallsegments,includinggoodwill,$billion

150

100

50

-50

200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022

AggregateEP,$billion

2000-09

38

2010-19

450

2020-24

473

Aggregate

EP/revenue,%

1.3

8.0

9.6

Note:Figuresmaynotsum,becauseofrounding.

Economicprofitiscalculatedasnetoperatingprofitlessadjustedtaxes(capitacharge,wherecapitalchargeisinvestedcapitalincludinggoodwillatpreviosyearmultiliedbyweightedaverageostofcapial;basedonasampleofapproximately410companiesover2000-19,about310for2020-21,andabout300for2022-24.

Source:McKinseyValueInteligence;McKinseyanalysis

McKinsey&Company

Siliconsqueeze:AI'simpactonthesemiconductorindustry3

billionand$159billionineconomicvalue,while

playersinthebottom5percentofeconomicvaluegenerationlost$45billionto$70billion,accordingtoMcKinseyanalysis.Nonetheless,thecurrent

stateofthesemiconductorindustryinaggregate

cannotbeexplainedsolelybyexaminingtheoutsizeimpactofthetopeconomicvaluegeneratorsintheearliestandmostrecentmarketphases.Amuch

deeperanalysisisneededtoidentifyandaddresswidespreadindustryissues.

Forexample,viewingeconomicprofitintermsofindustryplayersinthetop5percent,middle90percent,andbottom5percentofeconomicvaluegenerationbringsindustrydynamicsintosharperfocus:In2024,thetop5percentofcompanies

generated$147billionineconomicprofit,the

middle90percentgeneratedonly$5billion,andthebottom5percentlost$37billion.Thepower

curveinthesemiconductorindustryhasbecomeexceptionallysteep,andpowerisincreasingly

concentratedamongthecompaniesinthetop5percentofeconomicvaluegeneration(Exhibit2).

From2021to2022,themiddle90percentofthe

industryexperiencedasharpriseineconomicvaluegenerationlinkedtopandemic-relatedshortages.However,theeffectsofthepandemiconthemiddle90percentofcompaniesweretemporary;by2024,theireconomicvaluegenerationhadfallenfroma2021averageof$130millionpercompanytobelowprepandemicaveragesat$17million(Exhibit3).

Thisisataleoftwoindustries.Asmallpartoftheindustryisridingthevaluecreationboomand

generatingeconomicprofitatunprecedentedlevels.Butmostoftheindustryisfacingaverydifferentreality.

Exhibit2

Thesemiconductorindustrypowercurvehasbecomeexceptionallysteep,andpowerismoreconcentratedamongtopplayersintermsofeconomicprofit.

Semiconductorindustryperformancedistributionbyeconomicprofit(EP),1$billion

AverageEP

-2024

-2020-23

-2010-19

67

2000-09

-4

Basedonasampleofapproximately410companiesover2000-19,about310for2020-21,andabout300for2022-24.

Source:McKinseyValueIntelligence;McKinseyanalysis

McKinsey&Company

Siliconsqueeze:AI'simpactonthesemiconductorindustry4

Exhibit3

Economicprofitfor90percentofsemiconductorindustrycompaniespeakedamidpandemic-erashortagesandthendroppedsharply.

Totaleconomicprofitof90%of

semiconductorcompanies,1$million

36,098

33,513

14,09613,016

9,769

5,559

20172018201920202021

10,260

4,456

Averageeconomicprofitof90%of

semiconductorcompanies,1$million

130

4844

38

19

20172018201920202021202220232024

'Basedonasampleofapproximately410companiesfor2017-19,about310for2020-21,andabout300for2022-24.Source:McKinseyValueIntelligence;McKinseyanalysis

McKinsey&Company

Inventoryandrevenuetrendssignalthattheindustryhasnotfullyrecovered

Viewedintheaggregate,theindustryappearstoberecoveringfromitsmostrecentdownturnrelativelyquickly,similartoitsrecoveryfollowingthe2008

downturn,whenpeakrevenuelevelswerereachedin2010.However,ifNvidia(thenumber-oneplayerinthetop5percentofeconomicvaluegeneration)isremovedfromthecalculation,theindustry'soverallperformancepicturechangessubstantially.The

recoverytrajectorysincethedownturnthatbeganafterMay2022resemblesthelongerdurationseeninthewakeofthe2000downturn:anelongated

climbbacktopeakrevenuelevelsin2004(Exhibit4).

Since2000,spikesininventoryasashareof

next-quarterrevenuehavebeenassociatedwithdownturnsinthesemiconductorindustry:Astheindustryrecovers,inventorylevelsdrop.Thisholdstrueforallsegmentsoftheindustry,including

suppliers,distributors,andmanufacturers(OEMs,

original-designmanufacturers[ODMs],and

electronicmanufacturingservices[EMSs]).WhenanindustrydownturnbeganinMay2022,forexample,inventoryasashareofnext-quarterrevenuein

thesupplieranddistributorsegmentsspikedto75percent(fromabout55percentinthefirstquarter2022)andto49percent(fromabout40percent)inthemanufacturersegment.

Theworldhaslearnedtolivewithhigherlevelsof

semiconductorinventory.Infact,it'srecognizedthatitneedstodosotoavoidfuturesupplyshortages.Butcurrentlevelsarequitehigh,comparableto

levelsseenduringearlierindustrydownturns.Andalthoughtheyhavebeguntodecline,especiallyforsemiconductorcustomerssuchasOEMs,ODMs,andEMSs,highlevelspersistforsemiconductor

suppliersanddistributors.Inanothersignthatthepathtorecoverywillbelongerthananticipated,

supplierinventoryassessmentsthatexcludeNvidia(69percent)are11percentagepointshigherthanthosethatincludeNvidia(58percent)(Exhibit5).

Exhibit4

Overall,semiconductorindustryrecoveryslowedduringthesecondhalfof2024;excludingNvidia,recoveryhasnotbeenachieved.

Durationfrompriorsemiconductorsalespeaktofullyrecoveredsales,

3-monthmovingaveragesales,indexedto100atpriorsalespeak

120

50

Months

May2022-Feb2025

May2022-Feb2025,exclNvidia

2008-10

2000-04

Source:SemiconductorIndustryAssociation;WorldSemiconductorTradeStatistics;McKinseyanalysis

McKinsey&Company

Siliconsqueeze:AI'simpactonthesemiconductorindustry6

Exhibit5

Inventorylevelsarestartingtotrenddownwardbutremainrelativelyhighcomparedwithhistoricalindustryfigures.

Inventoryasshareofnext-quarterrevenue,%

Semiconductorsuppliers

Distributors²

OEMs,ODMs,andEMSs³

80

—Semiconductor

supplierslexcl

Nvidia:69%

60

40

20

200020052010201520202024

100

2000-04downturn

2008-10

May2022to

downturn

currentdownturn

Includes329publicsemiconductorcompaniesmadeupofindependentdesignmanufacturer,fabless,foundry,microcontroller,andpackagingandassemblycompanies.Excludeselectronicdesignautomation,capitalequipment,memoryintegrateddevicesmanufacturers,andintellectualpropertycompanies.

2Includes5ofthelargestpublicdistributorcompanies.

0DMisoriginaldesignmanufacturer,andEMSiselectronicsmanufacturingservice.Includestop121publicOEM,ODM,andEMScompanies.Source:S&PGlobalMarketIntelligence;McKinseyValueIntelligence

McKinsey&Company

Industrydynamicsshiftfurtherasthe

Chinesemarketexpandsandevolves

Globalizationwasadominantforcebehindthe

industry'sgrowthbetween2010and2019.Global

semiconductorcompaniesexpandedtheirpresenceinChina,andthisaccountedforanincreasingshareoftheirrevenue.Consider,forexample,theregionalrevenuesplitofkeysemiconductorequipment

players:MainlandChinaincreaseditsshareofsalesfrom6percentin2010to25percentin2020and38percentin2024(Exhibit6).

China'srevenuesharefor2024couldbeanoutlier,representingpotentialstockpilingofsemiconductorequipmenttomitigatetheimpactofpotential

futuretraderestrictions.Nonetheless,acleartrendindicatesthatMainlandChinamarketplayersare

increasingthecountry'sshareofsemiconductor

equipment.Between2010and2024,declining

sharesweremostpronouncedintheTaiwanand

Japanmarkets.TheTaiwanmarketisbuildingfab

capacityoutsideofTaiwanintheUnitedStatesandEurope,andalimitednumberofnewfabshavebeen

Siliconsqueeze:AI'simpactonthesemiconductorindustry7

Exhibit6

Siliconsqueeze:AI'simpactonthesemiconductorindustry8

TheMainlandChinamarketaccountsforanincreasingshareofsemiconductorequipmentsales,whilesharesforTaiwanandJapanmarketshavedeclined.

Shareofsemiconductorequipmentsalesbyregion,%

■MainlandChinaKoreaTaiwanJapanUSEurope,MiddleEast,andAfrica■Restofworld

100%

($billion)=

2010

B2029545t

29

2015

13212513BB4

31

2020

25212494B

66

2024

3817147t357

99

Note:Figuresmaynotsumto100%,becauseofrounding.

Analysisfortop6semiconductorequipmentcompanies:AdvantestCorporation,AppliedMaterials,ASML,KLACorporation,LamResearch,andTokyoElectron.

Source:S&PCapitalIQ;McKinseyanalysisofsemiconductorcompanyannualreports

McKinsey&Company

builtinJapan-twofactorsthatcouldbecontributingtothistrend.Meanwhile,marketplayersinKorea;

theUnitedStates;andEurope,theMiddleEast,andAfricahavemaintainedtheirhistoricalshares.

Theperiodbetween2010and2019markedthe

emergenceoflocalChinesesemiconductorplayers

withperannumgrowthratesof21percent.However,arapiddeclineintherevenuesofleadingChineseplayerHiSilicon(followingUSsanctionsonHuawei)stuntedgrowthbetween2019and2023.⁴Excludingthissingleplayer,thesemiconductorindustryinChinagrewat9to10percentannuallybetween2019and2023.Goingforward,astrong9percentperannumgrowthrateisanticipatedforlocalChineseplayers.

Semiconductorsareessentialcomponentsfor

expandingindustriessuchaselectricvehicles(EVs)andcommercialdrones,andChineseplayershavedemonstratedanintenttobuildanoutsizepresence

intheseareas.Globally,forexample,60percent

ofnewEVregistrationsin2023wereinChina.5

Meanwhile,mountinggeopoliticalconsiderationshavestrengthenedtheimpetusforChinatodevelopitsdomesticsemiconductorecosystem.

Theseconditionshavepotentiallyfar-reachingimplicationsfortheindustrybecauseongoing

imbalancescouldexacerbateshortagesincriticalmaterials,disruptsupplychains,andsqueeze

marginsforcompaniesinallindustrysegmentsaroundtheglobe.

Boldactionsareneededtodriveindustrygrowthaspressure

buildsonmultiplefronts

Between2019and2023,thesegmentofthe

semiconductorindustrythatdeployscomponentsforAlapplicationshadaCAGRof21percent.Companies

4"Gartnersaysworldwidesemiconductorrevenuegrew26%in2021,"Gartner,April14,2022.5"Electricvehicles,"InternationalEnergyAgency,accessedApril4,2025

Siliconsqueeze:AI'simpactonthesemiconductorindustry9

benefitingfromtheAlboomincludefabless,foundry,andcapitalequipmentplayersthathelpsupply

componentssuchaslogicchips-GPUsanddata

processingunits(DPUs)-andmicrocomponents

suchasmicroprocessors(MPUs)andmicrocontrollers(MCUs).Duringthesameperiod,CAGRfortheoverallsemiconductorindustrywas6percent;excluding

memoryplayers,industryCAGRwas9percent.

Meanwhile,growthforcompaniesbasedinMainlandChinawaslargelyflat,andnon-Alcompaniesintherestoftheworldgrewby8percentperannum.

By2030,thesemiconductorindustrycouldreach$1trillioninrevenue.GenAlexpansionhasthe

potentialtocontributeanadditional$300billion,foratotalof$1.3trillion.Andtheseprospective

revenuenumbersaresomewhatconservative;

continuedinvestmentsinAlandgenAlcouldfurtheraccelerategrowthinthesemiconductormarket.

Butgrowthprospectsthrough2030differgreatly

fromwhattheindustryexperiencedbetween2019

and2023.CAGRforcompanieswithexposuretoAlcouldbestrongat18to29percent.Benefitingfrom

itsexposuretodatacentertailwinds,thememory

segmentcouldseeCAGRreboundto17to23percent.AstheMainlandChinamarketmatures,CAGRfor

localplayerscouldbe14to20percent.However,

companiesinothergeographiesandindustrysectorsmayexperienceasharpdeclineinCAGRtoabout2to3percent-lessthanathirdofhistoricCAGRforthissegmentoftheindustry(Exhibit7).

Exhibit7

Through2030,companiesnotalignedwithAlorMainlandChinamarkettrendscouldexperiencegrowthpressure.

Semiconductormarket,$billion

CAGR,%2010-192019-232023-30

Memory,global5-417-23

AlI,'globalN/A2118-29

Other,restofworld182-3

■Other,MainlandChina²21<114-20

428

311

70

t2

33

263

238

20

2010

2019

545

95

72

358

2023

1,000-1,300

285-400

235-420

410-430

2050-70

2030

CAGR,%49-13

Includesbogic(graphicsprocesingunits,dataprocessingunits,aplication-specificintegratedcircuits,Alaccelerators,etc)andmicrocomponents(microprocessors,microcontrollers)deployedtosupportAlworkloads.Includesedgeanddatacenters.

includesrevenuesof56companies(integrateddevicemanufacturersandfabless)headquarteredinChina.YMTCandCXMTexcludedinthissegmentandaccountedforinthememorysegment.

Source:OmdiaApplicationMarketForecastTo;OmdiaCompetiveLandscapingTool(China);Gartner;McKinseysemiconductordemandmodel

McKinsey&Company

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MostplayerscouldfindgrowthincreasinglydifficultastheirmarketsharegetssqueezedbyAl-centriccompaniesandtheemergenceofat-scalemarketplayersinMainlandChina.Thus,thedynamics

thathaveshapedthesemiconductorindustryoverthepastdecademaynotpersistthroughthenextdecade.Thegeopoliticalenvironmentwillcontinuetobecomplex,offeringbothchallengesand

opportunities,soplayersmustconsiderhowtheywillidentifyandenabletherightopportunitiesandbecomebetteratnavigatingchallenges.

Forthesemiconductorindustrytofullyrecoverandachievewidespreadgrowthinthefuture,companiesmustreimaginetheirbusinessmodelsandseeknewopportunitiesforgrowth-forexample,inadjacentsegmentsorperhapsexpandingverticallybeyondtheconfinesofthesemiconductorindustryaspartofasolutionplay.Somecompaniesarealready

exploringnewoptionsandtryingtodifferentiatethemselves.Somemayspinoffandreorient

themselves,perhapsenteringnewpartnershipsorsignificantlychangingtheiroperationsor

organization.Withoutinnovationandnewsourcesofrevenue,somecompaniesmaynotbouncebackfromtheircurrentlevels.

Companiesshouldalsoreevaluatetheirproduct

portfoliosandaimtostrengthentheirsolution

playsviafurtherconsolidation.CompaniesthatlackexposuretoAlwillneedtoestablishhowtheywill

enterandparticipateinanincreasinglyAl-driven

industry,andagilityandspeedareessentialto

competeandgrow.Technologyinnovationsshouldfocusoncreatingamoreproductive,healthier,an