江南布衣深度报告：多品牌生态驱动的价值复利

目录盈利测估值 3盈利测 3估值 6行业向额争优品牌具间 6中国装规扩转份额升 6中国中低海，高端速快 8电商长动装业渠道型 12JNBY成速领国同行 13内生化品矩，上线协增长 14内生化成品扩主线 14线上速先同展经营性 16同业较显模渠优势长利增领先 16JNBY规领，但30区间非长花板 16直营效前经收占比业高 17近十归净润合速领同业 18设计供链会构壁垒高营量撑东回报 19供应设优转为利韧性 19高研投与定计队构品壁垒 19创始主保品调与经稳定 20会员献八，购服务力撑黏性 21净利ROE与存均领同业 22股价估围盈周波动 23风险示 23盈利预测与估值盈利预测核心假设：收入JNBY982FY2027-202915997/1012/1027b）单店收入：FY2027-2029别同比增长4%/3%/3%。283FY2027-20292285/287/289FY2027-20294.0%/3.5%/3.5%。jnbybyFY202650510515/525/535家。单店收入：FY20275%，FY2028-2029。LESS271FY202710家、FY2028-202988128927ESSFY2027-202910%/8%/8%。其他品牌：a）门店数量：FY202655FY2027-2029560/65/70b）单店收入：10%。毛利率FY2026JNBYjnbybyJNBYLESS69.9%/67.6%/60.8%/70.2%/48.8%FY2027-202966.5%/66.4%/66.2%。费用率FY2027-202936.0%/35.8%/35.6%。FY2027-202910.5%/10.3%/10.1%。盈利预测：根据上述假设，预计FY2027-2029公司营业收入分别为64.75/69.15/73.88亿元，同比增长7.1%/6.8%/6.8%；归母净利润分别为10.81/11.68/12.61亿元，同比增长8.3%/8.1%/7.9%。表：预计FY2027-20298.3%/8.1%/7.9%（百万元人民币） FY2025 FY2026 FY2027E FY2028E FY2029E营业收入 5548 6046 6475 6915 7388JNBY-营业收入 3013 3241 JNBY-营业收入 3013 3241 3433 3590 3753yoy 2.3% 7.6% 5.9% 4.6% 4.5%门店数（家） 961 982 997 1012 1027同比变（家） 37 21 15 15 15速写营业速写营业入 720 712 712 742 773yoy -4.6% -1.1% 0.0% 4.2% 4.2%门店数（家） 308 283 285 287 289同比变（家） -2 -25 2 2 2jnbybyjnbybyJNBY-营业收入 831 885 931 978 1027yoy 2.9% 6.5% 5.2% 5.0% 5.0%门店数（家） 513 505 515 525 535同比变（家） 20 -8 10 10 10LESS-营业收入 623 731 834 930 1033LESS-营业收入 623 731 834 930 1033yoy 0.2% 17.3% 14.1% 11.5% 11.0%门店数（家） 261 271 281 289 297同比变（家） 21 10 10 8 8其他品营业其他品营业入 361 478 565 675 802yoy 107.4% 32.3% 18.2% 19.6% 18.8%门店数（家） 52 55 60 65 70同比变（家） 14 3 5 5 5毛利率 51.5% 48.8% 48.8% 48.8% 48.8%营业成本 1909 2017 2167 2321 2495毛利率 65.6% 66.6% 66.5% 66.4% 66.2%销售费率 35.6% 36.0% 36.0% 35.8% 35.6%管理费率 9.6% 10.7% 10.5% 10.3% 10.1%财务费率 -0.2% -0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%归母净利润 893 997 1081 1168 1261yoy 5.1% 11.7% 8.3% 8.1% 7.9%资料来源：Wind，表2：损益表预测（百万元人民币）FY2024AFY2025AFY2026AFY2027EFY2028EFY2029E营业收入5,2385,5486,0466,4756,9157,388增长率17.3%5.9%9.0%7.1%6.8%6.8%营业成本1,7681,9092,0172,1672,3212,495%销售收入33.7%34.4%33.4%33.5%33.6%33.8%毛利3,4703,6394,0304,3084,5944,893%销售收入66.3%65.6%66.6%66.5%66.4%66.2%其他收入000000%销售收入0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%销售费用1,8271,9772,1772,3312,4762,630%销售收入34.9%35.6%36.0%36.0%35.8%35.6%管理费用506530648680712746%销售收入9.7%9.6%10.7%10.5%10.3%10.1%研发费用000000%销售收入0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%财务费用-7-12-13051%销售收入-0.1%-0.2%-0.2%0.0%0.1%0.0%息税前利润（EBIT）1,2061,2061,3421,4681,5911,713%销售收入23.0%21.7%22.2%22.7%23.0%23.2%投资收益-1-2-1000%税前利润-0.1%-0.1%-0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%除税前利润1,2131,2181,3551,4681,5861,712利润率23.2%22.0%22.4%22.7%22.9%23.2%所得税365321358388419452所得税率30.1%26.3%26.4%26.4%26.4%26.4%净利润(含少数股东损益)8488989971,0801,1671,260少数股东损益-150-1-1-1归属于母公司的净利润8498939971,0811,1681,261增长率36.7%5.1%11.7%8.3%8.1%7.9%净利率16.2%16.1%16.5%16.7%16.9%17.1%表3：资产负债表预测（百万元人民币）FY2024AFY2025AFY2026AFY2027EFY2028EFY2029E货币资金699263519184231304应收款项472778521596636680存货7209339059731,0421,120其他流动资产7047901,1151,1151,1151,115流动资产2,5942,7633,0612,8683,0283,222权益性投资000000固定资产4274345027349661,199无形资产745739711722732741非流动资产1,7781,7652,2202,5162,8123,108资产总计4,3724,5285,2805,3845,8406,329应付款项261239210225241259短期借款00249249249249其他流动负债1,4851,5201,5851,6811,7791,885流动负债1,7461,7602,0442,1562,2702,393长期债务005555其他长期负债415361344346348350非流动负债415361348351353355负债总计2,1612,1202,3922,5062,6232,748归属母公司股东权益2,1692,3612,8412,8253,1613,523少数股东权益424747464645负债股东权益合计4,3724,5285,2805,3785,8296,316表4：现金流量表预测（百万元人民币）FY2024AFY2025AFY2026AFY2027EFY2028EFY2029E净利润8498939971,0811,1681,261少数股东损益-150-1-1-1营运资金变动222-313-101-3330其他变动533549537389409420经营活动现金流量净额1,6031,1331,4331,4451,5871,691资本开支-144-442-202-367-376-386投资-255-106-392000其他1163041837投资活动现金流量净额-283-517-553-359-373-379股权募资-2-92152000债权募资-419-327-88-314-320-326其他-727-631-684-1,105-840-906筹资活动现金流量净额-1,148-1,051-620-1,418-1,159-1,232现金净变动173-436257-3354772数据来源：Wind，1.2.估值根据公司的业务类型，我们选择中高端服装品牌公司锦泓集团、地素时尚、歌PE12对2026/7/1-2027/6/30）12XPE1港元=0.86元人民币汇率计算，28.3港元。表5：可比公司估值表2026E2027E2026E2027E603518.SH锦泓集团CNY7.940.902026E2027E2026E2027E603518.SH锦泓集团CNY7.940.901.0498603587.SH地素时尚CNY12.480.650.721917603808.SH歌力思CNY8.860.570.7016133709.HK赢家时尚HKD4.371.001.1343平均12103306.HK江南布衣HKD22.822.032.19109数据来源（注取2026/10/9收盘价可比公司锦泓集团地素时尚盈利预测来自一致盈利预测其余公司盈利预测来自国泰海通，可比公司盈利预测为2026-2027自然年口径，江南布衣为FY2027-2028（2026/7/1-2028/6/30）口径，汇率取1港元=0.86元人民币）行业转向份额竞争，优质品牌仍具空间中国女装由规模扩张转向份额提升中国女装市场于疫情后步入温和复苏阶段，行业容量仍大，但下一阶段更重要的变量是集中度提升和品牌份额扩张。疫情前，中国女装市场整体保2025146420301563CAGR1.3%GDP表6：主要国家人均GDP增速及与女装市场增速相关性人均GDP同比增速中国印度日本南韩美国法国德国意大利西班牙20127.2%4.0%1.8%2.0%1.5%-0.3%0.4%-3.4%-3.2%20137.0%5.0%2.1%2.8%1.3%0.3%0.2%-2.1%-1.2%20146.8%6.1%1.0%2.6%1.7%0.5%1.9%-0.1%2.0%20156.3%6.7%1.9%2.3%2.1%0.6%1.2%1.0%4.2%20166.3%7.0%0.7%2.8%1.0%0.6%1.1%1.5%2.9%20176.3%5.6%1.7%3.1%1.8%1.8%2.5%1.8%2.7%20186.2%5.3%1.0%2.8%2.4%1.3%0.9%1.0%2.1%20195.6%2.8%-0.2%2.0%2.1%1.6%0.8%0.6%1.4%20201.9%-6.7%-4.0%-0.8%-2.5%-7.7%-4.2%-8.6%-11.7%202110.7%8.8%4.1%4.9%6.0%6.5%4.0%9.7%6.5%20223.1%8.5%1.7%3.0%1.9%2.2%1.8%5.2%6.2%20235.5%6.3%1.4%1.3%2.1%1.1%-0.9%1.0%1.2%20245.1%6.1%0.5%2.1%1.8%1.2%-0.4%0.8%2.3%20255.1%6.8%1.8%1.1%1.6%0.5%0.1%0.6%1.8%GDP增速与女装市0.930.920.190.620.950.700.580.790.72场增速相关性比值资料来源：Euromonitor，女装市场规模（亿美元）中国印度女装市场规模（亿美元）中国印度日本南韩美国法国德国意大利西班牙2012108513643094124621840822211920131193139349100126322441921412020141292148324106128622242420612220151348158283101131418535916910520161332166313100131618136016510620171392190302105134518236916510920181531203306110140419138316911520191530219306104141717936415810920201363143258981242146294122842021163416024910715651643321531002022143118222911016031533161481012023147419521711816271603401581102024145020621611616811603371631132025146421723311317211653431711192026E149223323611317691643421701192027E151824924411618191653441721212028E153926625411918771653471741242029E155328226012219371663491761262030E15632982681251993167353178128资料来源：Euromonitor，表8：主要国家女装市场规模同比增速YoY中国印度日本南韩美国法国德国意大利西班牙201213.2%-3.2%-0.6%2.7%4.7%-9.7%-5.7%-10.3%-11.1%20139.9%1.9%-18.7%6.1%1.4%3.0%2.9%-3.9%0.9%20148.3%6.8%-7.2%6.1%1.8%-0.9%1.0%-3.4%1.4%20154.3%6.8%-12.7%-5.2%2.2%-16.8%-15.2%-18.0%-13.8%2016-1.2%5.1%10.5%-0.6%0.1%-2.3%0.3%-2.6%1.0%20174.5%14.4%-3.3%4.5%2.2%0.8%2.3%0.3%3.1%201810.0%6.4%1.2%4.5%4.3%4.7%3.8%2.2%5.1%20190.0%8.1%0.2%-4.7%0.9%-6.1%-4.8%-6.7%-4.9%2020-10.9%-34.8%-15.9%-6.3%-12.4%-18.2%-19.4%-22.8%-23.5%202119.9%11.8%-3.2%9.2%26.0%11.9%12.9%25.4%19.2%2022-12.4%14.2%-8.0%2.6%2.4%-6.4%-4.6%-3.0%1.6%20233.0%6.9%-5.5%7.9%1.5%4.0%7.6%6.9%8.6%2024-1.6%5.9%-0.1%-2.0%3.3%0.3%-0.9%3.2%3.1%20251.0%4.9%7.5%-2.4%2.4%3.4%1.6%4.5%4.8%2026E1.9%7.7%1.6%0.4%2.8%-0.8%-0.1%-0.1%0.6%2027E1.7%6.9%3.2%2.3%2.9%0.5%0.6%1.1%1.7%2028E1.4%6.6%4.0%2.3%3.2%0.3%0.7%1.0%1.8%2029E0.9%6.0%2.4%2.7%3.2%0.5%0.7%1.2%1.7%2030E0.7%5.7%3.2%2.6%2.9%0.6%0.9%1.3%1.7%2011-2019CAGR6.0%5.7%-4.2%1.6%2.2%-3.7%-2.1%-5.5%-2.5%2021较2019增速6.8%-27.1%-18.6%2.3%10.4%-8.5%-8.9%-3.2%-8.8%2021-2025CAGR-2.7%7.9%-1.7%1.4%2.4%0.2%0.8%2.8%4.5%2025-2030CAGR1.3%6.6%2.9%2.0%3.0%0.2%0.6%0.9%1.5%资料来源：Euromonitor，中国集中度低于海外，中高端提速较快2025CR5CR105.4%8.1%CR5CR1035.2%42.2%15.5%和中国品牌2016中国品牌20162017201820192020202120222023202420252025较20242025较20161Uniqlo1.1%1.3%1.4%1.6%1.8%1.7%1.8%1.9%2.0%1.9%-0.1pct0.8pct2Bosideng0.5%0.6%0.6%0.7%0.9%0.9%1.0%1.3%1.4%1.5%0.1pct1.0pct3lululemon0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.3%0.5%0.7%0.8%0.1pct0.8pct4adidas0.7%0.8%1.0%1.1%1.0%0.9%0.5%0.5%0.6%0.6%0.0pct-0.1pct5Urban0.2%0.3%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.6%0.6%0.0pct0.4pctRevivoCR52.5%3.0%3.5%3.9%4.3%4.3%4.1%4.7%5.3%5.4%0.1pct2.9pctCR104.2%4.7%5.5%6.3%6.7%6.9%6.6%7.3%8.0%8.1%0.1pct3.9pct印度20242016度202420161Zudio0.1%0.1%0.1%0.2%0.2%0.4%0.6%1.1%1.6%2.0%0.4pct1.9pct2Jockey1.0%1.1%1.1%1.0%1.5%1.7%1.8%1.6%1.6%1.7%0.1pct0.7pct3Westside0.6%0.6%0.6%0.7%0.7%0.8%1.1%1.3%1.5%1.6%0.1pct1.0pct4Max0.8%0.8%0.9%0.9%1.2%1.2%1.5%1.3%1.5%1.5%0.0pct0.7pct5Zara0.8%0.8%0.9%0.8%1.0%1.1%1.3%1.5%1.5%1.5%0.0pct0.7pctCR53.3%3.4%3.6%3.6%4.6%5.2%6.3%6.8%7.7%8.3%0.6pct5.0pctCR105.0%5.2%5.5%5.7%7.1%8.1%9.4%10.2%11.7%12.3%0.6pct7.3pct

2025较

2025较日本20242016本202420161Uniqlo12.9%13.4%13.6%13.6%15.9%15.7%15.1%15.9%15.6%16.6%1.0pct3.7pct2Shimamura6.6%6.5%6.3%6.1%7.9%8.5%8.1%8.2%7.8%7.5%-0.3pct0.9pct3GU3.8%3.9%4.1%4.2%5.1%5.1%4.8%5.2%5.1%5.0%-0.1pct1.2pct4CrossPlus3.1%3.0%3.0%3.0%2.5%2.6%3.0%3.1%3.1%3.2%0.1pct0.1pct5Wacoal3.3%3.2%3.2%3.1%3.1%3.2%3.1%3.3%2.9%2.9%0.0pct-0.4pctCR529.7%30.0%30.2%30.0%34.5%35.1%34.1%35.7%34.5%35.2%0.7pct5.5pctCR1033.2%33.7%34.2%34.2%39.1%40.3%39.7%42.6%41.8%42.2%0.4pct9.0pct

2025较

2025较南韩20242016韩202420161Uniqlo5.5%5.8%6.4%5.5%4.7%3.6%4.0%4.7%5.0%5.4%0.4pct-0.1pct2Zara2.2%2.3%2.3%2.6%2.7%3.1%2.9%2.9%3.0%3.0%0.0pct0.8pctTheNorth31.4%1.5%1.6%1.5%1.4%1.7%2.1%2.5%2.6%2.8%0.2pct1.4pctFace4TOPTEN0.8%0.7%0.8%1.0%1.3%1.7%1.9%2.1%2.2%2.2%0.0pct1.4pct5Daks2.0%2.0%2.0%2.2%2.1%2.1%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.1%0.1pct0.1pctCR511.9%12.3%13.1%12.8%12.2%12.2%12.9%14.2%14.8%15.5%0.7pct3.6pctCR1016.1%16.6%17.5%17.3%17.0%18.2%19.6%21.3%22.4%23.8%1.4pct7.7pct

2025较

2025较资料来源：Euromonitor，欧美成熟市场的经验表明，女装行业集中度由全球龙头驱动，单品牌增长212025年美国/法国/德国/意大利/西班牙女装市场CR10分别提升8.1/14.5/3.5/13.1/22.5pct最快的西班牙市场Zara/Stradivarius/Primark2016-20255.5/1.6/1.2pct。表10：欧美主要国家女装市场品牌集中度对比美国 品牌 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20251--1-----3.0%2.8%2.8%2.7%2.6%-0.1pct-2Secretlululemon0.9%1.0%1.1%1.4%1.7%1.8%2.3%2.5%2.5%2.3%-0.2pct1.4pct3OldNavy2.2%2.3%2.4%2.4%2.7%2.5%2.2%2.2%2.2%2.2%0.0pct0.0pct4Shein-----0.9%2.1%2.2%2.2%2.0%-0.2pct-5AEO1.3%1.3%1.4%1.6%1.7%1.9%1.8%1.9%1.9%1.8%-0.1pct0.5pctCR54.4%4.6%4.9%5.4%6.1%10.1%11.2%11.6%11.5%10.9%-0.6pct6.5pctCR107.2%7.4%7.7%8.2%8.4%12.8%14.0%15.4%15.2%15.3%0.1pct8.1pct

2025较2024

2025较2016法国品牌2016201720182019202020212022202320242025较 2025较20252024 20161Zara2.3%2.6%2.6%2.9%3.6%4.2%4.4%4.6%5.0%5.1% 0.1pct 2.8pct2CacheCache3.1%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.3%3.3%3.5%4.0%4.6%4.8% 0.2pct 1.7pct3Shein-----2.4%2.6%2.9%3.5%4.3% 0.8pct4Kiabi3.2%3.3%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.7%3.8% 0.1pct 0.6pct-0.35Etam3.7%3.8%3.9%4.0%3.6%3.1%3.2%3.3%3.5%3.4% -0.1pctpctCR512.3%12.7%12.9%13.3%13.9%16.5%17.2%18.3%20.3%21.4%1.1pct9.1pctCR1018.9%19.4%19.7%20.6%21.3%23.8%25.2%26.9%29.0%33.4%4.4pct14.5pct2025较2025较德国品牌20162017201820192020202120222023202420252024 20161H&M4.1%4.0%4.0%3.9%4.3%4.0%4.2%4.2%4.2%4.4% 0.2pct 0.3pct2Janina1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.7%1.7%1.9%1.9%2.1%2.2% 0.1pct 0.4pct3Shein-----0.7%0.8%1.1%1.4%1.8% 0.4pct -4Takko1.2%1.6%1.6%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.7%1.7%1.7%1.7% 0.0pct 0.5pct5Zara1.0%1.0%1.1%1.1%1.2%1.2%1.4%1.4%1.5%1.6% 0.1pct 0.6pctCR58.1%8.4%8.5%8.3%8.7%9.1%10.0%10.3%10.9%11.7%0.8pct3.6pctCR1014.2%14.3%14.6%14.3%14.6%14.8%16.0%16.0%16.9%17.7%0.8pct3.5pct202420161202420161Zara2.7%2.9%3.1%3.4%3.2%3.5%4.1%4.3%4.6%4.8%0.2pct2.1pct2Shein-----1.5%2.5%3.0%3.4%4.0%0.6pct-3Primark0.1%0.4%0.7%0.8%1.0%1.0%1.6%2.4%2.6%2.6%0.0pct2.5pct4OVS2.1%2.3%2.3%2.3%2.1%2.3%2.3%2.2%2.4%2.5%0.1pct0.4pct5H&M1.7%1.7%1.6%1.7%1.6%1.5%1.5%1.7%1.7%1.8%0.1pct0.1pctCR56.6%7.3%7.7%8.2%7.9%9.8%12.0%13.6%14.7%15.7%1.0pct9.1pctCR109.7%12.1%12.5%13.2%12.8%14.4%17.1%20.4%21.8%22.8%1.0pct13.1pct2025较2025较西班牙品牌20162017201820192020202120222023202420252024 20161Zara10.6%11.0%11.3%11.6%11.5%12.9%13.4%15.2%16.1%16.1% 0.0pct 5.5pct2Stradivarius4.0%4.1%4.2%4.2%4.1%4.5%4.5%5.0%5.3%5.6% 0.3pct 1.6pct3Primark4.2%4.5%4.6%4.8%5.0%4.8%5.1%5.1%5.3%5.4% 0.1pct 1.2pct4Shein-----2.0%2.9%3.6%4.2%4.9% 0.7pct -5Mango---------4.2% - -CR518.8%19.6%20.1%20.6%20.6%24.2%25.9%28.9%30.9%36.2%5.3pct17.4pctCR1026.0%27.0%29.4%30.0%30.7%35.2%36.8%40.4%42.8%48.5%5.7pct22.5pct

2025较

2025较资料来源：Euromonitor，20252020167.9%20161.2%20252.3%1.1pct，0.7pct表11：中国女装前20大品牌市占率及细分市场集中度排序品牌定位20162017201820192020202120222023202420251Uniqlo大众休闲1.1%1.3%1.4%1.6%1.8%1.7%1.8%1.9%2.0%1.9%2Bosideng中高端0.5%0.6%0.6%0.7%0.9%0.9%1.0%1.3%1.4%1.5%3lululemon中高端运动0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.3%0.5%0.7%0.8%4adidas大众运动0.7%0.8%1.0%1.1%1.0%0.9%0.5%0.5%0.6%0.6%5UrbanRevivo大众休闲0.2%0.3%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.6%0.6%6Anta大众运动0.3%0.3%0.4%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.6%0.6%7Li-Ning大众运动0.3%0.3%0.3%0.4%0.4%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%8Fila中高端运动0.1%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%9Semir大众休闲0.5%0.5%0.6%0.7%0.6%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%10MO&Co中高端0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.4%0.5%0.5%0.5%11Zara大众休闲0.5%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.5%0.4%12YAYA大众休闲0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.4%0.5%0.5%0.4%13VeroModa大众休闲0.9%0.9%0.8%0.8%0.7%0.7%0.6%0.6%0.5%0.4%14Lily大众休闲0.3%0.3%0.3%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%15Chanel奢侈0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%16Moncler奢侈0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.4%17Nike大众运动0.3%0.3%0.4%0.4%0.5%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%18eifini大众休闲0.1%0.2%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.5%0.6%0.6%0.4%0.4%19Only大众休闲0.9%0.8%0.8%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.4%0.4%20JNBY中高端0.2%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.2%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%CR207.9%8.6%9.4%10.3%10.9%11.3%11.2%12.1%12.2%12.0%大众休闲集中度4.7%5.1%5.3%5.7%5.8%5.8%6.1%6.3%5.8%5.4%中高端集中度1.2%1.4%1.4%1.5%1.6%1.7%1.7%2.1%2.2%2.3%大众运动集中度1.6%1.7%2.1%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.0%2.0%2.2%2.2%中高端运动集中度0.1%0.1%0.3%0.4%0.6%0.8%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.3%奢侈集中度0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.5%0.6%0.6%0.7%0.8%0.8%资料来源：Euromonitor，图1：2025年中国女装前20大品牌中中高端女装集中度为2.3%

前20集中度 大众休集中度 中高端中大众运集中度 中高端动集度 奢侈集度12.1%12.1%12.2%11.3%12.0%10.3%10.9%11.2%9.4%7.9%8.6%1.2%1.4% 1.4%1.5%1.6% 1.7%1.7%2.1%2.2%2.3%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025资料来源：Euromonitor，电商增长推动女装行业全渠道转型20162025年锦泓集团/安正时尚/赢家时尚/歌力思/地素时尚的电商收入占比分别达到了39%/35%/20%/18%/22%，线上渠道已成为重要的收入来源。FY2017-FY20268%24%表12：近十年国内中高端女装公司电商收入占比显著提升201620172018201920202021202220232024202526H1营业收入（亿元）24.325.630.929.133.443.239.045.444.042.019.3锦泓集团电商收入（亿元）4.88.414.315.117.417.416.36.7电商占比10%14%15%16%25%33%39%38%40%39%35%营业收入（亿元）16.021.022.015.615.013.015.28.3安正时尚电商收入（亿元）1.32.0电商占比11%14%18%23%25%22%25%24%33%35%35%营业收入（亿元）16.022.025.241.553.363.556.669.165.962.927.3赢家时尚电商收入（亿元）4.09.711.312.75.9电商占比7%7%8%10%12%12%16%14%17%20%22%营业收入（亿元）11.320.524.426.119.623.623.929.230.428.614.4歌力思电商收入（亿元）5.32.7电商占比7%5%4%4%13%12%15%13%17%18%19%营业收入（亿元）18.219.521.023.825.629.024.026.522.221.411.1地素时尚电商收入（亿元）1.22.0电商占比7%10%12%13%14%13%13%15%17%22%26%FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24FY25FY26营业收入（亿元）19.023.328.633.631.041.340.944.752.455.560.5江南布衣电商收入（亿元）6.88.510.112.014.5电商占比8%8%9%12%15%16%17%19%19%22%24%资料来源：Wind，锦泓集团、安正时尚、赢家时尚、歌力思、地素时尚2016-2026H1财报，江南布衣FY2016-2026财报，国泰海通证券研究（注：安正时尚仅统计品牌服装业务及其线上销售收入，不包含控股子公司礼尚信息电商服务业务）高价值会员扩容以及会员结构升级成为江南布衣重要增长支撑。FY2017-20262.67.73.73.1倍，均快于收入整体增速。活跃会员增长2.3倍，略低于收入增幅，会员结构升级和高价值客群扩容成为收入增长的重要支撑。表13：江南布衣线上收入及高价值会员增长显著快于集团收入集团口径指标FY2017FY2026变化集团收入23.3亿元60.5亿元2.6倍线上收入1.9亿元14.5亿元7.7倍线上收入占比约8%24%+16个百分点活跃会员26万+61万+2.3倍年消费超5000元会员11.8万+36万+3.1倍高价值会员零售额14.0亿元52.0亿元3.7倍资料来源：Wind，江南布衣FY2017及FY2026财报，JNBY成长速度领先国内同行JNBY品牌收入首次突破1010FY2014-2026CAGR10.0%如可比品牌TeenieWeenie2016-2025年约7.9%，Koradior2015-2025年CAGR约6.5%，PEACEBIRD女装2012-2025年约6.1%。图2：JNBY收入突破10亿元后至今的收入CAGR达10.0%0.5%0.6%1.6%4.6%5.7%6.1%6.5%7.9%10.0%0.5%0.6%1.6%4.6%5.7%6.1%6.5%7.9%10.0%NAERSI2020-20252018-20252012-20252019-2025PEACEBIRD2012-2025Koradior2015-2025TeenieWeenie2016-2025JNBYFY2014-FY20260.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%资料来源：Wind，赢家时尚2015-2025年报，地素时尚2014-2025年报，歌力思2021-2025年报，朗姿股份2019-2025年报，锦泓集团2017-2025年报，太平鸟2013-2025年报，江南布衣FY2014-2026财报， （注：图中为品牌首次突破10元规模后至今的CAGR增速）MaraBrunelloCucinelli202540.8FY2026JNBY32.440表14：国内外中高端服装品牌已验证较大的收入规模空间品牌/集团收入规模口径MaxMaraGroup€19亿+集团/多品牌BrunelloCucinelli€12.8亿2024/单品牌集团鄂尔多斯服装40.8亿元2025/服装板块PORTS母公司22.4亿元2017/历史披露资料来源：MaxMaraFashionGroup官网，BrunelloCucinelli2024年报，鄂尔多斯2025年报，PorticoInternationalHoldings2017年报，核心区域容量奠定品牌基础规模，多区域复制进一步抬升成长上限。国际品牌发展经验，Aritzia22.7514.27和BrunelloCucinelli表15：江南布衣集团收入主要来自中国内地，SMCP等品牌区域分布更均衡品牌/公司总收入最大区域最大区域收入其他区域收入区域结构特征江南布衣集团60.46亿元中国内地99.4%60.12亿元非中国内地0.34亿元收入高度集中于中国内地Aritzia37.02亿加元美国61.5%22.75亿加元加拿大14.27亿加元北美核心市场支撑规模扩张SMCP 12.17

EMEA（不含法国）35.4%

4.31亿欧元

4.111.83亿欧元4.95

多个区域共同贡献收入BrunelloCucinelli 14.08亿欧元 美洲37.0% 5.21亿欧元

亿欧元

三大区域收入分布均衡资料来源：Wind，江南布衣FY2026财报，AritziaFY2026财报，SMCP2025年度业绩公告，BrunelloCucinelli2025年度业绩公告及公司官网， （注：江南布衣、Aritzia为FY2026收入口径，SMCP、BrunelloCucinelli为2025年口径）FY202660.469.97（2025年赢家时尚/地素时尚/歌力思/安正时尚/锦泓集团归母净利分别为公司市值（亿元）2025收入/净利润（亿元）旗下品牌公司市值（亿元）2025收入/净利润（亿元）旗下品牌收购/自有/合资品牌风格品牌价位带品牌店铺数（家）赢家时尚3362.86/3.97Koradior自有浪漫、女人味轻奢（1000-3000元）647LaKoradior自有感性、奢雅、浪漫轻奢/高端（1000-4000元）41ELSEWHERE自有自然、松弛、臻质轻奢/中高端（500-2000元）117FUUNNYFEELLN自有自由洒脱，年轻率性中档（300-1500元）42CADIDL收购简约、优雅、臻质轻奢/中高端（500-2000元）127NAERSI收购都市优雅，从容自在轻奢（1000-6000元）487NEXY.CO收购知性、简约、智美轻奢（2000-5000元）212地素时尚6121.36/2.60DAZZLE自有至情至性，热爱生活中高端（1000-3500元）429DIAMONDDAZZLE自有艺术灵感，高级订制感中高端/高级（1500-6000元）25d'zzit自有古灵精怪，潮酷混搭中高端（500-2000元）338RAZZLE自有潮流与经典平衡中高端（500-2000元）1歌力思3128.57/1.65ELLASSAY自有高端时装，率性优雅高端（2000-7000元）265Laurèl收购德国高端，简约艺术（职场）高端（2000-7000元）93IRO收购法国设计师，摇滚潇洒轻奢/中高端（2000-4000元）97（全球）self-portrait合资（中国）英国当代时尚，独具设计感轻奢（3000-6000元）78nobis合资加拿大功能性羽绒高端功能性（2500-9000+元）2安正时尚2723.45/-1.89JUZUI玖姿自有当代中国式优雅，修饰身型中高端（500-1500元）501IMM尹默自有独立知性，解构平衡中高端（2000-5000元）63MOISSAC摩萨克自有法式，自由浪漫，混合印花中高端（1000-2500元）65ANZHENG安正自有中蕴西型，都市休闲（男装）中高端（1000-4000元）29ANNAKRO安娜蔻自有优雅品质，高性价比质价比（500-1500元）7江南布衣11260.46/9.97JNBY自有现代、活力、意趣、坦然中高端（500-2500元）982CROQUIS（速写）自有优雅、玩味、当代（男装）中高端（500-1500元）283jnbybyJNBY自有自由、想像力、快乐（童装）中高端（500-1500元）505LESS自有简约、精工、独立（职场女性）中高端（1000-4000元）271B1ock收购多品牌买手集合店高端（2000-40000元）OnMyGame收购（多品牌集合店）中高端（200-600元）锦泓集团2842.02/2.26VGRASS自有中国高端女装，溯源云锦中高端（2000-5000元）166TeenieWeenie收购中高端新复古学院风中高端（500-1200元）918元先收购高端精品，云锦工艺中高端（500-1700元）12025年/FY20262026/9/30FY2026202520252026/6/30内生孵化多品牌矩阵，线上线下协同增长内生孵化构成多品牌扩张主线公司品牌扩张以内生孵化为主线，逐步形成覆盖不同年龄、性别及消费场景的多品牌体系。1994JNBY2005CROQUIS（），2011年推出童装品牌jnbybyJNBYLESS，2016FY202660.5图4：江南布衣持续孵化多品牌矩阵，品牌版图不断扩容20052005：JNBY零售店铺网络扩展至俄罗斯会员账户数突破100万；港股上市1999：注册【JNBY商标】2006：JNBY零售店铺网络扩展至日本2015：推出微信平台作为主要旗舰在线门户1997：成立杭州江南布衣2010：JNBY被评为中国驰名商标资料来源：BloombergMediaStudios，江南布衣招股说明书，JNBY25-4032CAGR达8.1%速写25-40jnbybyJNBY向30-45FY2019-2026收入CAGR1.4%/9.3%/14.3%，LESS7.3（onmygameJNBYHOME制艺术集合点B1OCKFY20264.8CAGR达到31.2%，进一步提升集团成长弹性。图5：公司旗下各品牌形成差异化定位，LESS与新兴品牌提高增长弹性资料来源：Wind，江南布衣FY2019-2026财报，线上增速领先，同店展现经营韧性FY2017FY2017-20261.914.58%表16：江南布衣线上收入占比持续提升，FY2026增速达20.5%（亿元）FY14FY15FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24FY25FY26自营收入11.414.014.913.517.616.718.522.220.823.0自营增速18.6%28.4%21.5%22.5%6.3%-9.1%29.7%-4.8%10.9%19.5%-6.2%10.7%经销收入10.012.014.712.817.117.317.620.722.723.0经销增速15.7%8.8%22.3%19.5%22.8%-13.2%33.9%1.2%1.7%17.7%9.6%1.3%线上收入8.510.212.014.5线上增速10.9%12.3%31.1%42.0%47.9%18.0%42.4%3.6%24.5%19.3%18.3%20.5%资料来源：Wind，江南布衣FY2014-2026财报，FY2014-2026FY2020受外部环境冲击同比下降4.9%，FY2021FY20249.1%FY20262.4%FY14FY15FY16FY17FY14FY15FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24FY25FY26可比同店增速0.1%7.1%8.3%8.0%8.9%3.4%-4.9%19.3%-3.7%9.1%10.7%-0.1%2.4%店铺增速16.4%18.3%20.9%15.1%10.2%-8.1%4.1%1.3%1.7%1.8%4.5%0.0%资料来源：Wind，江南布衣FY2014-2026财报，同业比较凸显规模与渠道优势，长期利润增长领先JNBY规模领先，但30亿区间仍非增长天花板JNBYFY202660.5JNBY中高价位带，收入规模已突破30亿元，显著高于多数中高端女装品牌（Koradior/DAZZLE/ELLASSAY亿元）表18：江南布衣第一大品牌收入规模领先同业，多品牌矩阵贡献较为均衡集团名称品牌个数第一大品牌收入（亿元）第二大品牌收入（亿元）第三大品牌收入（亿元）全公司收入（亿元）赢家时尚762.9歌力思528.6地素时尚421.4锦泓集团342.0江南布衣960.5欣贺股份5---14.8资料来源：Wind，江南布衣FY2026财报，地素时尚、歌力思、赢家时尚、锦泓集团、欣贺股份2025年报，图6：主要女装集团旗下品牌收入规模与价格带分布资料来源：Wind，江南布衣FY2026财报，地素时尚、歌力思、赢家时尚、锦泓集团2025年报，天猫旗舰店，直营店效居前，经销收入占比同业最高FY2026459表19：江南布衣经销收入占比同业最高，直营店效居于行业前列最新直营（家）最新经销（家）相较19年直营相较19年经销最新直营收入占比最新经销收入占比最新电商收入占比店效（百万元）直营毛利率经销毛利率江南布衣5011617-13.3%12.3%38.0%38.0%24.0%4.673.2%60.3%赢家时尚12763971.5%-9.8%74.0%4.3%21.7%3.280.0%69.7%地素时尚229564-39.7%-22.1%43.6%30.7%25.7%4.281.5%68.1%锦泓集团727358-46.2%234.6%54.0%10.6%35.4%2.872.0%60.5%歌力思4429336.0%-66.2%91.4%8.6%19.2%5.974.9%40.5%FY2026202520262026H1FY20262025年末数据。店效按自营渠道收入/期2026H122025年末数据）从分品牌门店数量看，JNBYFY2026JNBY982Koradior647DAZZLE429265918jnbybyJNBYLESS505283271JNBY98家，LESS85图7：江南布衣核心品牌门店规模处于同业前列江南布衣JNBYCROQUISjnbybyJNBYLESS最新店铺数98228350527119年店铺数884338514186赢家时尚KoradiolLaKoradiorELSEWHEREFUUNNYFEELLNCADIDLNAERSINEXY.CO最新店铺数647411174212748721219年店铺数-------地素时尚DADMDZRA最新店铺数42925338119年店铺数605554359锦泓集团VGRASSTEENIEWEENIE元先最新店铺数166918119年店铺数18612721歌力思ELLASSAYLaurèlIROself-portraitnobis最新店铺数265939778219年店铺数3065258--资料来源：Wind，江南布衣FY2019及FY2026财报，地素时尚、歌力思、赢家时尚、泓集团2019年报及2025年报，天猫旗舰店， （注：江南布衣取FY2019及FY2026数据，可比公司取2019年报及2025年报数据）近十年归母净利润复合增速领先同业江南布衣近十年归母净利润复合增速领先同行。FY2016-2026营业收入CAGR12.3%CAGR15.3%（7.3%6.9%0.3%为-6.4%）。公司在行业波动期仍实现利润复合增长，表明其在品牌扩张阶段并未以持续牺牲盈利为代价，实现高质量增长。图江南布衣近十年营收入CAGR达12.3% 图江南布衣近十年归净润CAGR达15.3%

2015-2025年营业收入CAGR17.2%17.2%17.7%12.3%13.1%1.4%江南布衣赢家时尚地素时尚锦泓集团 歌力思

2015-2025年归母净利润CAGR15.3%15.3%6.9%7.3%0.3%-6.4%江南布衣赢家时尚地素时尚锦泓集团 歌力思资料来源：Wind， 资料来源：Wind，表20：头部女装公司旗下各品牌近十年收入复合增速对比一览公司旗下品牌统计区间起始收入（亿元）2025年收入（亿元）CAGRKoradiol2015-202511.1921.096.5%LaKoradior2015-20250.885.6020.4%ELSEWHERE2015-20250.783.8817.4%赢家时尚FUUNNYFEELLN2019-20250.041.9890.7%CADIDL2016-20250.713.6720.1%NAERSI2019-202510.1516.788.7%NEXY.CO2019-20253.019.8621.9%DAZZLE2015-202510.9711.370.4%地素时尚DIAMONDDAZZLEd'zzit2015-20252015-20251.735.730.998.71-5.5%4.3%RAZZLE2017-20250.030.2632.8%ELLASSAY2015-20258.2411.183.1%歌力思LaurèlIRO2016-20252017-20250.303.954.676.4135.9%6.2%self-portrait2020-20250.335.8777.9%JNBYFY2016-202611.9832.4110.5%江南布衣CROQUIS（速写）jnbybyJNBYFY2016-2026F