Ember2026电力能源安全电动汽车如何降低石油进口风险研究报告

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Electricenergysecurity:howEVsarereducingoilimportvulnerabilities

Electriccarfleetshavesavedoil-importingcountries$20bnsincethestartoftheUS-IsraelwarwithIran,accordingtonewdatareleasedbyEmber.

Publisheddate:14October2026

Authors:EuanGraham

About

Ember'snewlyreleasedmonthlyelectricvehicles(EV)salestracker

providesup-to-datedataonnewcarsalesfor56countries.ThisanalysisexaminesthelatestprogressinEVuptakeanditsimpactonoildemanddisplacement,includingthevalueofoildisplacedbyEVfleetsinthesixmonthsfollowingthestartoftheUS-IsraelwarwithIranandtheresultingdisruptiontofossilfuelsuppliesthroughtheStraitofHormuz(referredtohereasthe'Hormuzenergycrisis').

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Summary

AstheHormuzenergycrisiscontinuestodisruptglobaloilsupplies,countrieswithelectriccarfleetsaremeaningfullyreducingtheirdependenceonoil

imports.Growingsalesareincreasingthisimpact.

Whilesomecountriesarebenefittingfromlong-standingstrategiestoenableEVuptake,othersarepassingnewpoliciesthatwillintimereduceoilimport

vulnerabilityandattractnewinvestmentintheEVsupplychain.Againstthisbackdrop,theUSisincreasinglybecominganoutlier.

01

Fullyelectriccarscontinuetogainpopularityaroundtheworld.

49outof56countriestrackedbyEmberrecordedarecordshareofbatteryelectricvehicle(BEV)salessofarin2026.India,Chile,

AustraliaandNewZealandhaveseenarapidaccelerationfollowingtheclosureoftheStraitofHormuz.

02

EVcarfleetsaredisplacingoildemand,savingoilimporters$20billionsincethestartoftheHormuzenergycrisis.InthesixmonthsfromMarchtoAugust2026,Chinasavedanestimated$14billion,withEUcountriessaving$3.1billion.

03

NewmarketsareovertakingtheUS,wheregrowthhasstalled.

Fifteencountries,includingBrazilandIndia,overtooktheUSforBEVsalessharein2026.

Long-timeleadersinBEVuptakelikeNorwayandDenmarkarebeingjoinedbynewpioneerssuchasVietNamandUruguay,asmoreandmorecountries

implementsuccessfulpoliciestosupportthetransitiontoelectricvehicles.

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CountrieswithmajorcarmanufacturingsectorssuchasBrazil,IndiaandJapanareallnowseeingBEVsalesincreaseconsiderably.

TheHormuzenergycrisishasfurtheraccelerateduptake,withconsumers

increasinglyconcernedabouttheimpactofhighfuelprices.Forcountriesreliantonoilimports,electricvehiclesrepresentthemostpowerfulleverforreducing

thisdemand.Thecountriesthathavemadeastrategicefforttosupportelectricvehiclesaremuchbetterprotectedfromthecurrentcrisis.

Thecountriesthatinvestedinelectricvehiclesbeforethiscrisisare

nowbetterprotectedandagrowingnumberarefollowing.Every

electriccarontheroadreducesexposuretovolatileoilmarkets,andasfleetsgrow,sodoestheprotectionagainstfuturesupplyshocks.Thebenefitsoftheglobalshifttoelectriccarsextendbeyondcuttingemissions,withimplicationsforenergysecurity,economicresilienceandhowcountriespositionthemselvesinaworldwheredependenceonimportedoilcarriesimmenserisks.

EuanGraham

SeniorEnergyAnalyst,Ember

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Electriccarscontinuetogainafootholdacrosstheworld

Fallingtechnologycosts,highfuelpricesandpolicydirectionarehelpingfully

electricoptionsgainagrowingshareofnewcarsales.Globally,BEVsalesareupby11%year-on-yearforthefirsteightmonthsof2026despitepolicychanges

slowingEVuptakeintheUSandChina,thetwobiggestmarketsinabsolute

terms.Incontrast,salesofplug-inhybridelectricvehicles(PHEVs)havefallenby12%andsalesofinternalcombustionengine(ICE)vehiclesaredownby6%.

Asaresult,BEVshaveclimbedto18%ofnewcarsalesgloballyforthefirsteightmonthsofthisyear,upfrom16%inthesameperiodin2025.Inthesameperiod,theglobalPHEVsalessharehasfallenfrom8%ofnewcarsalesto7%.Atagloballevel,mid-yearsalessharefiguresforelectricvehiclesarelowerthanthe

full-yearvalues,sinceChina,whichhasahighEVshareandaccountsforalargeproportionofglobalEVsales,typicallyseesasurgeinnewcarregistrations

towardstheendoftheyear.

Salesrecordscontinuetobebroken

StronggrowthoutsidetheUSandChinahasbeenkeytoBEVsalescontinuingtoriseglobally.ExcludingtheUSandChina,globalBEVsaleshavegrownbyan

estimated45%inJanuary-August2026,comparedtothesameperiodtheyearbefore.Ofthe56countriesinEmber'smonthlyEVsalestracker,49haveseenarecordbatteryelectricvehicle(BEV)salessharesofarin2026.

Formanyleadingcountries,newrecordshavebeenreachedthroughthecontinuationofatrend,ratherthanthestartofsomethingcompletelynew.NorwayhasseenaBEVsalesshareof98%inthefirsteightmonthsof2026,

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havingalreadyexceeded95%formultiplemonthsin2025.Itisoneoftwelve

marketsinEmber'sEVsalestrackerwhereBEVshaveexceededathirdofnewcarsalessofarin2026.FouroftheothersareinAsia,includingNepal,Singapore,VietNamandChina.UruguayrecordedaBEVsalesshareof38%inthefirsteight

monthsof2026andhasbecometheleadingmarketforelectriccaradoptioninLatinAmerica.TheremainingmarketsareinEurope,includingDenmark,Iceland,Finland,Sweden,NetherlandsandBelgium.Supportivepolicyframeworkshavegiventhesecountriesaheadstartinprotectingthemselvesfromenergysupplydisruptions.

OthercountrieshaveseenanaccelerationinBEVadoptionin2026drivenin

largepartbynewpoliciesimplementedbeforetheHormuzenergycrisis.ThesuccessofFrance'ssocialleasingschemehashelpedliftitsBEVsalesshare

above30%forthefirsttime.Germanyhasalsoshownimpressivesalesgrowth,withnewsubsidiescomingintoforceatthestartofthisyear.SouthKorea

introducedanewK-MobilityGlobalLeadershipStrategyattheendof2025tohelpdrivelong-termcompetitivenessofKoreanoriginalequipment

manufacturers(OEMs),whichincludednewsupportforEVadoption

domestically.Asaresult,salesofBEVshavedoubledyear-on-yearandhavemadeupalmostaquarterofallnewcarsalesinthecountryin2026.

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EVadoptionisboomingaroundtheworld

Rolling6-monthBEVsalesshare(%),January2023-August2026

Norway

100

50-

0-

China

40

20

0

Ireland

30

10

0

Switzerland

20A

10

0

NewZealand

10

5

0

Greece

V

10-

5

0

Brazil

8

4

0

Denmark

80

40

0

Sweden

40Y

20

0

Thailand

30

10

0

Indonesia

20

10

0

Cyprus

1--A

0-

Italy

8

4

0

India

8

4

0

Iceland

80

400

Uruguay

40

20

0

Portugal

20

10

0

Slovenia

20

10

0

(china)

10-

5

0-

Malaysia

8

4

0

Slovakia

8

4

0

Singapore

60

20

0

Belgium

40

20

0

Germany

20

10

0

Australia

20

10

0

Spain

10

5

0

Bulgaria

8

4

0

Croatia

4

2

0

VietNam

40

20

0

Malta

40

20

0

Austria

20

10

0

Türkiye

20

10

0

Latvia

5

10

0

Ecuador

8

4

0

Japan

4

2

0

Finland

40

20

0

Luxembourg

30

10

0

United

Kingdom

20

10

0

Colombia

10

0

Hungary

10

5

0

Estonia

8

4

0

Chile

4

2-

0-

Netherlands

40

20

0

France

30

10

0

SouthKorea

20

10

0

Albania

10

0

Lithuania

10

5

0

Czechia

8

4

0

Mexico

2

1

0

Source:MonthlyEVsalesdata,Ember

Datashownisfornewcarsales,withcountriesorderedbytheirmaximumsalesshare.IncludesallcountriesinEmber'sEVsalesdatawitharecordyear-to-dateBEVsalessharein2026.

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Inothercountries,theeffectoftheHormuzenergycrisisonthecostoffuelhasresultedinaclearuptickindemandforBEVsfromconsumers,drivingupsalesshare.India,Chile,AustraliaandNewZealandhaveallseensharpincreasesinBEVsalesfollowingMarch2026,withconsumersheavilyaffectedbyrisingfuelprices.

SeveralmarketssawrapidaccelerationinEVadoptionfollowingthe

closureofthestraitofHormuzinMarch2026

ChangeinBEVsalescomparedtoprevioussixmonthperiod(%)

pre-Hormuzcrisis(Sep2025toFeb2026)■post-Hormuzcrisis(Mar2026toAug2026)

+11%

NewZealand

+5%

Australia

+136%

+7%

Chile

+124%

+17%

India

Source:MonthlyEVsalesdata,Ember

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Newmanufacturingandinvestment

ManycountrieswithrisingEVsalesaresimultaneouslydevelopingnew

manufacturingcapacityandgrowingtheirdomesticelectricvehicleindustries.TheriseinelectricvehiclesalesintheEUthisyearhasbeenmetinlargepartbynewaffordablemodelsfromEuropeanmanufacturers.NewmodelsbyRenault,VolkswagenandSkodawerethebest-sellingelectriccarsinEuropeinJuly.

InAsia,domesticmanufacturersarebecomingmajorplayersinVietNamand

India.VinFastalreadyproducedVietNam’smostpopularcarin2025andhas

expandeditsproductionoperationsoverseas

openingnewfactoriesinIndiaand

Indonesia

lastyear.Meanwhile,inthefirsthalfof2026,domesticOEMsTataandMahindra

madeupover60%ofIndia’sEVsales

.

InLatinAmerica,BraziliscementingitspositionasaregionalmanufacturinghubwiththeopeningofBYD’splantin2025,with

productioncapacityexpectedtobe

increased

to300,000vehiclesannually.New

localcontentrequirements

are

successfullydrivingthisinvestment.MexicoannouncedthelaunchofdomesticmanufacturerOliniathisyear,withproductionofitssmallcarEVslatedtobeginin2027.

8

EVfleetsarehelpingreduceoilimportbillsaroundtheglobe

Ascountriesadjusttoaprolongeddisruptiontooilandgassupplies,transportelectrificationisprovidingapathtoreduceoilimportvulnerability.Inthesix

monthssincetheHormuzenergycrisis,electriccarfleetsinoil-importing

countriesareestimatedtohavedisplaced200millionbarrelsofcrudeoil,withavalueof$20billion.Fullyelectriccars(BEVs)areresponsibleforthelargestshareofthisfigure($16.5billion),withtherestcomingfromPHEVs.Thisisinpart

becausePHEVsarealsopoweredbyacombustionengineandthereis

real-worldevidencethatdriversenduprelyingonitmorethanmanufacturersinitiallyclaim.

InSeptember,oilpricesonceagainclimbedtoover$100perbarrelforthefirst

sustainedperiodsinceMay,meaningthesefiguresarelikelytoriseovertherestoftheyear.Sincethestartoftheyear,thedailyclosingpriceofBrentcrudehasexceeded$100morethan60times,havinglastdonesoin2022followingRussia'sinvasionofUkraine.Thisiscompoundedbyanevenmoreacutesupplycrisisindieselandotherrefinedproducts,whereimpactsonglobaloilflowshave

combinedwithattacksonrefineriesaroundtheworld.Globally,dieseluseis

concentratedinthetruckingsector,butforcertainmarketssuchasEuropethishasaconsiderableimpactoncardriverstoo.

ChinaandEUrepresentthelargestshareofoildisplaced

Ofglobaleconomiesreliantonoilimports,ChinaandtheEUwerethetwo

marketswhereEVfleetsdisplacedthelargestamountofcrudeoil.Inthesix

monthssincethestartoftheHormuzenergycrisis,electriccarsdisplaced$14bnofcrudeoilinChina,approximatelythreequartersofthetotaloildemand

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9

displacedbyelectriccarsacrossalloil-importingcountries.Beyondcars,China'stwoandthreewheelersandtruckingsegmentsarealsoundergoingrapid

electrification,furtheraddingtooildisplacement.

EUMemberStateswereresponsibleforafurther$3.1bnofthecrudeoildisplacedbyelectriccarsbetweenMarchandAugust2026.GermanyandFranceweretheMemberStateswiththelargestvalue,ataround$760mnand$560mn,

respectively.However,whencomparingoildisplacementtoeachcountry'soilconsumption,DenmarkemergesasaclearfrontrunnerinEurope.AsofAugust2026,Denmark'scurrentelectriccarfleetdisplaces6.4millionbarrelsofoilperyear,equivalentto13%ofthecountry'soilconsumptionin2025.ElsewhereinEurope,theUnitedKingdom'selectriccarfleetdisplacedaround$790mnof

crudeoilinthesixmonthssincethestartoftheHormuzenergycrisis.

CountriesintheAssociationofSouth-eastAsianNations(ASEAN)combined

displacedaround$560mnofcrudeoilfromtheirelectriccarfleets,withThailandandVietNamtheleadingcountries.InmanycountriesinASEAN,twoandthreewheelersplayamoresignificantrole,duetotheirmuchlargerfleetsizes.

Electriccarsprovideoilimporterswithanewroutetoenergy

security,withChinaandEuropecurrentlybenefittingmost

OildisplacedbyEVcarfleetperyearasashareofVdaisllauiilmits

Denmark

Sweden

ChinaUnitedKingdom

$290m

$220m

$13,960m$790m

France

$560m

GermanyNetherlands

Australia

ThailandSouthKorea

$760m

$250m

$220m

$210m

$260m

Source:MonthlyEVsalesdata,Ember;EIStatistcaReviewofWorldEnergy

Dataincludedinthechartshowsthe10oil-importingcountrieswhereelectriccarfleetsare

displacingthemostoil.MonetaryvalueofdisplacedoilimportsbasedonaveragemonthlyBrentcrudepricesduringsixmonthperiod,roundedtothenearest10m

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nationaloil0nsumption5%10%sinceIranwarbegan

Energysecuritybenefitscombinewithconsumersavings

Beyondthesavingstoeachcountry’sbalanceoftradefromavoidingcrudeoilimports,consumersareavoidingdependenceonexpensiveandvolatilefuels.Thepriceofdieselandpetrolhas

risenevenmoreacutely

thanthatofcrudeoil,includingincountrieswhichhavetheirowndomesticoilproduction.

EvenbeforetheHormuzcrisis,BEVsofferedsavingsinrunningcosts,whichhaveonlywidenedunderthecurrentfossilsupplydisruption.Research

hasshownthat

intheEU,petrolcardriversarefivetimesmoreaffected

bytheclosureofthe

StraitofHormuzthandriversofatypicalBEV.MeanwhileintheUK,

BEVsarenow

uptoninetimescheapertodrive

thanapetrolordieselcar.

11

GloballeapfrogleavesUSfallingbehind

Astheglobalswitchtoelectricvehiclescontinuestoadvance,somelegacyauto

marketsarebeingleftfurtherbehind.TheUnitedStates,havingrolledbackitsfederalsupportforelectricvehicleslastyear,hasseentheBEVshareof

light-dutyvehiclesalesfallto6%inthefirsteightmonthsof2026.

Ofthe56countriestrackedinEmber'smonthlyEVsalestracker,49arenow

aheadoftheUSforBEVsalesshare.FifteencountriesovertooktheUSforthefirsttimethisyear,includingBrazil,India,Italy,MalaysiaandNewZealand.

MoreandmorecountriesarepullingaheadoftheUSonelectriccar

adoption

YearthateachcountryovertooktheUnitedStatesonBEVshareofnewcarsalesPre-2010:二

2012201520202026(YTD)

Source:MonthlyEVsalesdata,Ember;IEAEVdataexplorer

Datapre-2026isfromIEAannualdatawhereavailable,otherwiseannualisedEmbernewcar

registrationsdataisused.2026dataisonlyusedforcountrieswithatleastsixmonthsofsalesdata.CountriesincludedarebasedonEmberanalysisofavailabledata,andnotanexhaustivelist.

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OtherlargemarketswithmajorautosectorsareovertakingtheUSforBEV

adoption.India,whichhadaBEVsalesshareof2%in2024,hasseenarapidriseinBEVsalesandhashadahigherBEVsalessharethantheUSineverymonth

sinceApril.Brazil'sgrowingdomesticmanufacturingcapacityforBEVsisseeinganincreaseindomesticsales.AndJapan,forlongaslowadopteroffullyelectricvehicles,hasseenitsBEVsalesdoublein2026,followingtheintroductionofa

newpolicyinJanuarythathelpsconsumerswiththeupfrontcostsofEVs.

OthercountrieswithlargeautosectorsaresurpassingtheUSforEVuptake

MonthlyBEVsalesshare(%)

BrazilIndiaJapan

USEVtaxcredit

ends,Sep2025

10

2

Jan-24Jan-25Jan-26Jan-24Jan-25Jan-26Jan-24Jan-25Jan-26

Source:MonthlyEVsalesdata,EmberEMB三R

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