德勤 -2026 年德勤假日零售调查报告 2026 Deloitte Holiday Retail Survey

Deloitte.

Insights

2026DeloitteHolidayRetailSurvey

Balancingbudgetsandkeepingspiritsbright

Executivesummary

Thisholidayseason,whichmarksour41styearofcoveringholidaytrends,shoppersseemdeterminedtokeepspiritsbright,evenwhilewatchingeverydollar.Betweentravelandoutings,festiveapparel,andspiffingupseasonaldécor,theholidaytabcanaddupfast—allbeforeasinglegiftgetswrapped.

Averagehouseholdspendisexpectedtoincreaseto$1,654,up4%YoY,as79%ofrespondentsbelievehigherpricesareintheirfuture.Assuch,thevaluehuntisverymuchon.Nearly4in10shoppersqualifyasholidayvalueseekerswhoshoppromotions,redeemrewards,andlooktoprivatelabelandothervaluealternativestomakegiftpurchasesfeelworththeprice.Yettheseshoppersexpecttospend12%morethanothershoppers.

Tere’splentyofroomfordelight,too.Halfofthesurveyedshoppersplantogiftanexperience,up11percentagepointssince2024,andmostwanttopairitwithaphysicalgift.Self-giftingandluxuryconsiderationsarealsorising,especiallyamongyoungergenerations.

TheseyoungershoppersareparticularlyimportantthisseasonasGenZandmillennialsareexpectedtomakeup50%ofholidayspendingforthefirsttimeinoursurvey.

Consumersarealsogettinganearlierstart,with22%sayingtey’llshopsoonerthanlastyear.Junepromotionshavealreadycapturedsomeholidaypurchasesfor1in4shoppers,andOctobersalesaregainingmomentum(up18ppsince2023).Still,Thanksgivingweekremainsthemainevent.

Theholidayshoppingjourneyfavorsonline-onlyretailersandmassmerchants,whichareexpectedtocapturemostofsoppers’plannedspend,whileonlinespendingisexpectedtomakeup55%ofretailbudgets.GenerativeAIisaholiday-shopperhelper,with39%ofrespondentsnotingit’stheirprimarytoolforatleastoneholidayshoppingtask,butonly16%saytheywouldpermitittocompleteapurchase.

Forretailers,anopportunityliesinmeetingsoppers’determinationtocelebratewithclearvalue,timelypromotions,andeasiergiftdiscovery,whiletappingintoyoungersoppers’uniqueshoppingpreferences.PairingproductswithexperiencesandusinggenAItobuildconfidenceratherthanfrictioncanhelpkeeptheseasonfestiveandfinanciallymanageable.

Source:2026DeloitteHolidayRetailSurvey.

2026DeloitteHolidayRetailSurveyCopyright©2026DeloitteDevelopmentLLC.Allrightsreserved.2

2026DeloitteHolidayRetailSurveyCopyright◎2026DeloitteDevelopmentLLC.Allrightsreserved.3

Holidayhighlights

Budgetsgetajollylift

$1,654

averageexpectedholidayspend(up4%YoY),largelydrivenbymillennialsandGenZ

shopperswhonowrepresent50%ofexpectedholidayspending

Source:2026DeloitteHolidayRetailSurvey.

Stockings

stuffedwith

experiences

+11pp

increaseinrespondentsplanningtogiftexperiencessince2024(50%in2026,47%in2025,39%in2024)

Savingsmart,spendingbright

ofsurveyedshoppersareholidayvalueseekers,engaginginfiveormorecost-savingbehaviors,yetplantospend12%morethanothers

2026DeloitteHolidayRetailSurveyCopyright©2026DeloitteDevelopmentLLC.Allrightsreserved.4

Cheatsheet

Spendingtrends

Averageholidayspendisexpectedtoincreaseto$1,654thisseason,up4%YoYasmostrespondentsbelieveholidaypriceswillbehigherYoY.

TheexpectedgainsarelargelyfromGenZand

millennialswhonowrepresent50%oftheholidayspend.

Spendingonretailgoodsisexpectedtobeup10%YoY($988),whilethatonholidayactivitiesisdown4%YoY($666).

Economicsentimentholdssteadyamong

respondents,with45%expectingtheeconomytostaythesameorimprove.

Householdsearningmorethan$200Kplantospend$3,607onaverage,morethan5xthe$693expectedbythoseearningunder$50K.

38ofsurveyedshoppersqualifyas“holidayvalueseekers,”adoptingfiveormoremoney-saving

behaviors,yetareexpectedtospend12%morethanothers.

Source:2026DeloitteHolidayRetailSurvey.

Shoppingjourney

22%plantostartholidayshoppingearlierthanlast

year,and28%oftheholidaybudgetisexpectedtobe

spentbytheendofOctober,thehighestshareinsixyears.

1in4respondentsalreadypurchasedholidayitems

duringJunepromotionalevents,and4in10plantoshopOctobersalesevents.

ShoppingactivitypeaksinlateNovember(77%of

shoppersactive)andstayselevatedintoearlyDecember(78%).

54%ofshoppersplantospendmostoftheirholidaybudgetate-commerceretailersormassmerchants,

makingtheseretailersthemaindestinationforholidayspending.

55%ofretailholidaybudgetsareplannedforonline,

versus45%in-store.

Consumerpreferences.

39%saygenAIistheirprimarytoolforatleastoneholidayshoppingtask,butonly16%wouldtrustit

tocompleteapurchasewiththeirpermission.

50%ofshoppersplantogiftanexperiencethis

holidayseason,upfrom47%in2025and39%in2024.

49%ofrespondentsconsiderluxurygoodsa

worthyinvestment,upfrom39%in2025,with

GeZ’sluxurycosideratiorisigto72%(from57%in2025).

33%ofshoppersplantoself-gift,ledbyGenZ(49%)andmillennials(42%).

Youngergenerationshaveuniquepreferencesthatmaypresentopportunitiesforretailers,suchas

wishlists(79%GenZversus69%babyboomers),fasterdelivery,andpersonalizedgifts.

2026DeloitteHolidayRetailSurveyCopyright◎2026DeloitteDevelopmentLLC.Allrightsreserved.5

Holidayspendingontherise

Shoppersplantoboostholidaybudgetsthisseason,withhalfofspendingcoming

fromyoungergenerations.Retailspendingisexpectedtoriseacrossincomegroups,whileexperiencegiftingandholidayvalueseekerspresentnewopportunities.

2026DeloitteHolidayRetailSurveyCopyright©2026DeloitteDevelopmentLLC.Allrightsreserved.6

Averageholidayspendisexpectedtoincreaseto$1,654,asmostrespondentsbelievehigherpricesareintheirfuture

Holidayshoppersplantopullbackonactivitieswhileincreasingspendonretailgoods

Averageexpectedholidayspend1Reasonsforhigherspend

Holidayactivities*

Retailgoods**

$1,778

$735

$1,043

2024

$1,595

$694

$902

2025

–4%YoY

+10%

YoY

$1,654

$666

$988

2026

79%ofsurveyedconsumersbelievepriceswillbehigheronholidayitemsYoYversus77%in2025and69%in20242

50%ofholidayspendingwillcomefromGenZandmillennials;bothgroupsplantoincreasespendbydoubledigitsYoY1

Economicexpectationsholdwith45%ofsurveyedconsumersexpectingtheeconomytoremainthesameorimproveversus43%in20253

Notes:*Holidayactivitiesincludestravelandeventsandhostingathome;**Retailgoodsincludegiftitemsandnon-giftitems(hosting,clothes,holidaydécor,etc.);Questions:(1)“Howmuchdoyouexpecttospendoneachofthefollowingitemsduringtheupcomingyear-endholidayseason?”(n=4,000);(2)“Comparedtolastholidayseason(2025),Iexpectpricestobesomewhat/significantlyhigher”(n=4,000);(3)“Inyouropinion,whatistheoveralloutlookfortheUSeconomyin2027comparedwithtoday?”(n=4,000).

Source:2026DeloitteHolidayRetailSurvey.

2026DeloitteHolidayRetailSurveyCopyright©2026DeloitteDevelopmentLLC.Allrightsreserved.7

Youngerrespondentsexpectedtorepresent50%oftheholidayspendforthefirsttime

GenZandmillennialsnotebetterhouseholdfinancialsituationsyearoveryearandplantouptheirspendafterpullingbacklastyear

Averageexpectedholidayspend,bygeneration202420252026

$1,916

$2,039

$1,282$1,282

$850

$1,777

$2,087

$1,980

$1,832

$1,712$1,615

$1,353

Betterhouseholdfinancialsituationthanlastyear

38%

29%

35%

35%

28%

32%

25%

23%

21%

22%

23%

16%

Notes:n=4,000;Qustion:“Howmuchdoyouexpecttospendoneachofthefollowingitemsduringtheupcomingyear-ndholidaysason?”;Sniors(bornin1945orearlier;n=92)arenotreportedduetothesmallsamplesize.

Source:2026DeloitteHolidayRetailSurvey.

GenZ(18to29years)Millennials(30to45years)GenX(46to61years)Babyboomers(62to80years)

Shareofspend12%10%16%32%31%34%27%31%28%27%26%20%

2026DeloitteHolidayRetailSurveyCopyright©2026DeloitteDevelopmentLLC.Allrightsreserved.8

Acrossincomegroups,respondentsindicateincreasedspendonretailgoods

Retailgoodsspendingincreasesacrosstheincomespectrum,whiletravelandeventsdecline

Averageexpectedholidayspend,1byhouseholdincome

20252026

+4%YoY

Gifts

+10%YoY

$628$693

Lessthan$50K

+21%YoY

+7%YoY

$1,347

$1,435

$50Kto$99K

+7%YoY

FlatYoY

$2,492

$2,441

$100Kto$199K

+6%YoY

$3,475

$3,607

$200K+

+16%YoY

Seasonalitems*

+14%YoY

+11%YoY

+2%YoY

+6%YoY

Travelandevents

–12%YoY

–6%YoY

–15%YoY

–5%YoY

Hostingathome+15%YoY+29%YoY+8%YoYFlatYoY

Notes:*Seasonalitemsincludenon-giftitems(clothes,holidaydécor,etc.);Question:“Howmuchdoyouexpecttospendoneachofthefollowingitemsduringtheupcomingyear-endholidayseason?”(n=4,000overall[1,333=lessthan$50K;1,265=$50Kto$99K;1,011=$100Kto$199K;391=$200K+]).

Source:2026DeloitteHolidayRetailSurvey.

2026DeloitteHolidayRetailSurveyCopyright©2026DeloitteDevelopmentLLC.Allrightsreserved.9

Morerespondents

plantogiftclothingandaccessoriesandexperiences

shopper1

giftsper

averagenumberof

Sameas2025

8

Clothingandaccessories2

76%GenZplantogiftclothingandaccessories

versus67%in2025

Experiences2

51%GenZplantogiftexperiences

versus41%in2025

57%millennialsplantogiftexperiences

versus52%in2025

Youngergenerationsaredrivingthelargestgainsingifting,especiallyforclothingandaccessoriesandexperiences

Percentageofshoppers,bygiftcategories2

20252026

Clothingandaccessories

Toysandhobbies

Foodandbeverage

Giftcards

Experiences

Homeandkitchen

67%

63%

61%

61%

55%

54%

54%

54%

50%

47%

49%

47%

44%

33%

40%

Healthandwellness

44%

ofrespondentsareplanningto

42%

Electronicsandaccessories

giftcashthisholidayseason

37%

versus29%in2025

Pet

35%

Notes:n=3,700(742=GenZ;1,021=millennials;945=GenX;900=babyboomers];Seniors(bornin1945orearlier;n=92)arenotreportedduetothesmallsamplesize).Questions:(1)“Whatisthetotalnumberofgifts,includinggiftcertificates/cards,youexpecttobuyforothersand/oryourselfthisholidayseason?”(n=3,497);(2)“Whichofthefollowingdoyouplantobuyasagiftthisholidayseason?”(n=3,700).

Source:2026DeloitteHolidayRetailSurvey.

2026DeloitteHolidayRetailSurveyCopyright◎2026DeloitteDevelopmentLLC.Allrightsreserved.10

Respondents'giving

experientialgifts

preferencestrendtoward

50%

plantogiftanexperience,versus47%in2025and39%in2024¹

47%

ofrespondentsprefertogiveonemeaningful,higher-costgiftversusseveralsmallergifts²

Opportunityforretailers

79%ofexperience-giftshopperswanttopairitwithaphysicalitem³

Experiencegiftscreateopportunitiesforcross-merchandisingandpartnerships

Percentageofrespondentsgiftingexperiences,byactivities¹

37%

35%

Restaurant(in-personmealorgiftcard)

19%

Ticketstoanevent

16%

8%

7%

Subscriptionproductsorservices

7%

Classesorservices

7%

statements?"(n=3,700);(3)"Whengivinganexperienceasaholidaygift,whichphysicalitems,ifany,doyouexpecttopurchasetoaccompany

thegift?"(n=1,855)

Source:2026DeloitteHolidayRetailSurvey.

Notes:Questions:(1)"Whichofthefolowingdoyouplantobuyasagitthisholidayseason?"(n=3.400);(2)"Doyouagreeordisagrewiththe

orroundout

following

2026DeloitteHolidayRetailSurveyCopyright◎2026DeloitteDevelopmentLLC.Allrightsreserved.11

Holidayvalueseekers

huntharderforsavings,andstillspendmore

38%

ofrespondentsare“holidayvalueseekers'”

Opportunityforretailers

12%higherspendingplannedbyholidayvalueseekersthanaverageshoppers

Notes:n=3,700;Question:"Towhatextentdoyouagreeordisagree

withthefollowingstatements?"(percentageagree/stronglyagree);

*Holidayvalueseekersarerespondentswhoadoptfiveormoreofthe

followingsevenmoney-savingbehaviorsduningtheirholidayshopping

journey:waitingfordeals,switchingbrandswhenpricesrise,shopping

moreaffordableretailers,spreadingpurchasesovertime,cutting

otherspendingtofundholidays,reusingwrappingordecor,and

settingper-personspendinglimits.

Source:2026DeloitteHolidayRetailSurvey.

Shoppingearlierandbudgetingmore,holidayvalueseekerspresentabrightopportunityforretailersintheraceforseasonalspend

Howareholidayvalueseekersdifferent?

45%use

genAltoolsVs.35%of

others

Theystartearlyandstayengagedallseason

65%arealreadyshoppingbylateOctobervs.48%ofothers

80%oftheirengagementholdsacrossthefullThanksgivingpromotionalweekvs.65%ofothers

Theymeetretailersondifferentdigitalchannels

71%use

socialmedia

vs.54%of

others

They'resavvyabouthowandwheretosave

38%plantoredeemloyaltypointsforholidaypurchases

vs.24%ofothers

62%haveboughtprivatelabelinthepastsixmonths

vs.46%ofothers

Theyskewtowardvalue

formats

35%shopatoff-priceretailers

vs.21%ofothers

24%shopat

dollarstores

vs.14%of

others

2026DeloitteHolidayRetailSurveyCopyright◎2026DeloitteDevelopmentLLC.Allrightsreserved.12

Holidayshoppingjourneystarts

SOoner

Shoppersaregettinganearlierstartontheirholidaygiftlists,drawntosaleseventsaheadofThanksgivingweek.Priceandvalue

continuetodriveretailformatchoices,andwhilemostshoppersprefertobuyonline,severalin-storecategoriesstandout.

2026DeloitteHolidayRetailSurveyCopyright©2026DeloitteDevelopmentLLC.Allrightsreserved.13

Earliershoppingis

buildingmomentumaheadofthepeak

season

Thisisthehighestlevel

observedinthelastsixyears

28%

ofshoppers’budgetsarelikelytobeexhaustedbytheendofOctober1

versus24%in2025

22%plantostartshoppingearliercomparedwithlastyear2

Octoberseesgrowingshopperparticipation,whileNovemberremainsthelargestexpectedspendingperiod

Shareofexpectedspend,byshoppingperiods1

PercentageofactiveshoppersShareofexpectedspend

77%78%

56%

$330

63%

54%

45%

36%

23%

$204

$178$151

$123

8%

$70

4%

20%

32%

$359

$240

36%

BeforeSepend

EarlyLate

OctOct

EarlyLateEarlyLateJan

NovNovDecDec

Notes:n=3,700;Questions:(1)“Whatpercentagedoyouplantospendduringthefollowingmonths?”;(2)“Whendoyouplantostartyourholidayshoppingthisyearcomparedtolastyear?”

Source:2026DeloitteHolidayRetailSurvey.

2026DeloitteHolidayRetailSurveyCopyright©2026DeloitteDevelopmentLLC.Allrightsreserved.14

Respondentspullholidayshoppingforwardastheyembraceearlypromotionalevents

Junepromotionscapturedsomeholidaypurchases,whileOctobereventsarealmostonparwithCyberMonday

80%ofyoungergenerationsplantojoinatleastoneThanksgiving-weekeventvs.62%ofoldershoppers

Shoppingeventsthey’relikelytoparticipatein2

Octobersalesevents

ThanksgivingDay

BlackFridaysales

SmallBusinessSaturday

CyberMondaysales

18ppgrowthinthepast3years*

20252026

42%

40%

23%

19%

52%

51%

20%

20%

44%

47%

1in4

surveyedrespondentsboughtatleastone

holidayitemduringJunepromotionalevents1

PercentageofrespondentsplanningtoshopduringOctobersalesevents,byitems3

HolidaygiftitemsHolidaynon-giftitems80%

65%

57%

60%

12%

12%13%

6%

Massmerchant

promotionalevent

Otherpromotionalevents

Notsure

Online-only

merchant

promotionalevent

Notes:Questions:(1)“DidyoupurchaseanyholidayitemsduringsummerpromotionaleventsthisyearthatoccurredinJune?”(n=3,700);(2)“Whatholidayshoppingeventsareyoulikelytoparticipatein?”(n=3,700);(3)“WheredoyouplantoshopforholidaydealsduringOctoberpromotionalevents?”(n=1,554).*Octobersaleseventgrowthcomparedto40%in2025,38%in2024and24%in2023.

Source:2026DeloitteHolidayRetailSurvey.

2026DeloitteHolidayRetailSurveyCopyright©2026DeloitteDevelopmentLLC.Allrightsreserved.15

Holidayshoppers

plantoconsolidatespendaroundonlineandmassmerchants

Whereholidayshoppersplantospendmostoftheirbudget:1

20252026

33%

36%

Onlineore-commerceretailers

17%

18%

Massmerchantretailers

4%

4%

Departmentstores

Topthreeattributesshopperslookforwhenselectingaretailer:2

#1Priceandvalue#2Convenience

#3Product

Nots:n=3,700forqustions1to3;Qustions:(1)“Whrdoyou

anticipatspndingthmostmonythisholidaysason?”;(2)“Whicharthethreemostimportantattributesforyouwhenselectingaretailer

duringholidayshopping?”;(3)“Whrdoyouplantoshopforgiftsthisholidaysason?”;(4)“Howmanyphysicalrtailstorswillyouvisitto

purchasgiftsthisholidaysason?”(n=3,412).

Source:2026DeloitteHolidayRetailSurvey.

Priceandvalueremainsthetopfactorinwhererespondentschoosetoshop

Top10retailformatswhererespondentsplantoshop3

20252026

Onlineore-commerceretailers

Massmerchantretailers

65%

60%

54%

51%

31%

30%

Departmentstores

29%

27%

27%

28%

Warehousemembershipclubs

Bookstores

26%

29%

Off-priceretailers

25%

24%

24%

Localindependentstores

4

physicalstoresexpectedtobevisitedonaverage,4

21%

sameas2025

Supermarketsorgrocerystores

22%

27%

Beautyorcosmeticstores

20%

16%

Specialtyclothingretailers

2026DeloitteHolidayRetailSurveyCopyright©2026DeloitteDevelopmentLLC.Allrightsreserved.16

Onlineleadsholidayshopping,butin-storespendingshinesin

severalcategories

Averageshareofplannedretailholidayspend,bychannel1

online(55%)

versus$508in2025

in-store(45%)

$440

versus$394in2025

Notes:n=3,700;Questions:(1)“Whatpercentageofyourtotalholidaybudgetdoyouexpecttospend…?”;(2)“Iwouldratherpurchasethefollowingitemsonlinethanin-store…”

Source:2026DeloitteHolidayRetailSurvey.

Whileonlineshoppingispreferred,respondentsplantoincreasein-storespendby12%YoY

Expectedspendbychannel1

40%

24%

8%

21%7%

100%

Mostlyonline

100%

online

Mostlyin-store

50-50

in-store

28%

48%

24%

Channelpreferencebycategories2OnlineIn-store

41%

44%

51%

54%

57%

60%

62%

81%

Electronicsandaccessories59%

Toysandhobbies56%

Giftcardsorcertificates49%

Clothingandaccessories47%

Healthandwellness43%

Homeandkitchen40%

Pet38%

Foodandbeverage19%

2026DeloitteHolidayRetailSurveyCopyright©2026DeloitteDevelopmentLLC.Allrightsreserved.17

Broaderuseofdigitaltoolsisassociatedwithhigherplannedholidayspendingamongrespondents

Averageexpectedspendrisessteadilyasshoppersusesearch,socialmedia,andgenAIacrosstheirholidayshoppingjourney

Non-techusers

Notechtools

$1,175

Averageholidayspend*

8%holidayshoppers

Techusers

Anyonetechtool

Allthreetechtools

Anytwotechtools

+$214

+18%

+$1,457

+101%

$2,893

Averageholidayspend*

30%holidayshoppers

$1,222

Averageholidayspend*

27%holidayshoppers

$1,436

Averageholidayspend*

35%holidayshoppers

Notes:*Deloittecalculations;n=3,700(non-tchusrs=315;tchusrs=3,385);Qustion:“Whatisyourprimarytoolforaccomplishingachofthfollowinginyourholidayshoppingjourny?”

Source:2026DeloitteHolidayRetailSurvey.

2026DeloitteHolidayRetailSurveyCopyright©2026DeloitteDevelopmentLLC.Allrightsreserved.18

GenAIhahopper’attention,buttrustislimitedforsomeaspectsoftheshoppingjourney

GenAIasaprimaryholidayshoppingtoolfor39%,butonly16%trustittocompletethepurchase

57%

ofsurveyedshoppersareawareof

genAIassistantsonretailerwebsites1

saygenAIistheirprimarytoolforatlestoneoftheshoppingjourneytasks2

Bygeneration:

39%

GenZ

MillennialsGenX

Babyboomers

49%

50%

35%

23%

GenAIsentiment1

66%

WorryabouthowdataisusedbygenAIassistants

37%

Morecomfortableusing

genAIthansixmonthsago

16%

WouldletgenAIcomplete

thepurchasewithpermission

FeelgenAImakesiteasier

tofindtherightholidaygifts

31%TrustgenAItoaccurately

29%Wouldtryanunknownretailer

basedonagenAIrecommendation

compareproductsandprices

33%

Notes:n=3,700forbothquestions;Questions:(1)“Towhatextentdoyouagreeordisagreewiththefollowingstatements?”(percentageagree/stronglyagree);(2)“Whatisyourprimarytoolforaccomplishingeachofthefollowinginyourholidayshoppingjourney?”;GenAIshoppersarethosewhochosegenAIforatleastoneoftheseshoppingjourneytasks:budgeting,giftinspiration,dealdiscovery,personalizedrecommendations,pricecomparison,findingalternativesordupes,productreviews,listorganization,andcompletingthepurchase.

Source:2026DeloitteHolidayRetailSurvey.

Youngershoppers

preferences

shiftgifting

Youngershoppers—makinguphalfofthis

year'sexpectedholidayspend—leadasthe

mostlikelytopurchaseluxuryitemsandbuya

littlesomethingforthemselves.Theirshopping

preferencesa