摩根士丹利-100 倍人工智能文化 人工智能能把 10 倍工程师变成 100 倍工程师吗 100X AI Cultures Can AI turn 10x Engineers into 100x Engineers

CounterpointGlobalInsights

AIBeneficiaries:InvestinginSecond-OrderEffects–

Update:100xAICultures

INSIGHTS|COUNTERPOINTGLOBAL|September2026

ResearchUpdate-100xAICultures

WeoriginallypublishedourAIBeneficiaryresearchinlate

2024,whenthemarketwasonlybeginningtoappreciate

howimpactfulthetechnologycouldbecome.Atthetime,wesoughttoshareourperspectiveonthebroadereconomicandsocietalimplicationsofAIintegration.

Intheyearandahalfsincepublication,themarkethas

remainedheavilyfocusedontheinfrastructurebuildout,whilepublicdiscussionhasincreasinglyshiftedtowardAI’sbroadereconomicconsequences,includingtherisksitposestospecificjobs.Anemergingthemeamongmanyofthemostadaptable

leadersacrossourportfoliocompaniesisthatAImaynot

simplyreplacepeople,butinsteadmakethemsignificantly

moreproductive.WearenowexploringthatobservationinourlatestCultureQuantresearch,100xAICultures.

Ratherthanfocusingonwhichcompaniescouldcapture

efficiencygainsbyadoptingAI,weseektoidentifythose

integratingthetechnologyintotheirworkflowsmore

effectivelythanpeersbyestimatingrevenueproductivity

gains.Theresearchintroducesanewmetric-theAI

ProductivitySpread-designedtoidentifyorganizations

wherevaluecreationmaybescalingfasterthanlaborcosts.

CumulativeGrowthfrom1stQ(%)

Spread

KEYFINDINGS

100xAICulturesOutperform.Weexaminedover700publiclytradedcompaniesrepresentingroughly

40millionemployeerecordsduringtheemergenceofenterpriseAIadoption.1UpdateDisplay1

AIProductivitySpread=

(GrowthinRev/TechEmployee)–

(GrowthinAvgTechSalary)

160%

Invention:

120%

80%

ToIdentifythe:

40%

AvgTechSalary

0%

2022Q42023Q42024Q42025Q4

Wefindthatcompanieswhereproductivityappearstobescalingfasterthancompensationgeneratedstrongerforwardequityreturnsthantheirpeers.Werefertotheseorganizationsas“100xAICultures.”

Dataset:

750Techcompanies,

40memployeesandcomptracked

“100xAICultures”

Measureswhethervaluecreationisoutpacinglaborcost

MethodtoMeasure:

“AIProductivitySpread”

Rev/TechEmployee

1Source:MorganStanleyInvestmentManagement(MSIM),RevelioLabsasof3/31/2026.TheviewsexpressedherearethoseofCounterpointGlobalanddonotreflecttheopinionsofallInvestmentteamsatMSIMortheviewsofthefirmasawholeandmaynotbereflectedinthestrategiesandproductsthattheFirmoffers.Theinformationaboveisprovidedforinformationalpurposesonlyanddonotconstituteandshouldnotbeconstruedasinvestmentadviceorrecommendations.AIProductivitySpread-definedastrailing4Qgrowthinrevenuepertechemployeeminustrailing4Qgrowthinaverage

techsalary.Avgtechsalaryreflectsheadcount-weightedcompacrosstechroles,geographies,andsenioritylevels.Chartshowsaveragerevenueper

techemployeeandsalaryfortop-quintilecompaniesovertime.Apersistencefilterisapplied,includingonlycompaniesthatappearinthetopquintileinatleast6quarterstoreduceone-offentrants.

WhatdoesAImeanforsoftware?

Investorsareincreasinglydebatingwhetherartificial

intelligencewilldisruptincumbentsoftwarecompanies.WhilegenerativeAImayerodethecompetitiveadvantagesofsomesystems-of-recordproviders,webelievethemorecompellinginvestmentquestionisnotwhichsoftwarecompaniesare

disrupted,butwhichorganizationsarebestpositionedto

harnessAItoamplifyhumanproductivity.Whenintegrated

effectivelyintodailyworkflows,canAIturn10xengineersinto100xengineers?

Recentcommentsfromtechnologyexecutivessuggestthisdynamicmayalreadybeemerging.Cloudflare’sCEOrecentlydescribedemployeesbecoming“two,ten,evenonehundredtimesmoreproductive.”Affirm’sfounderarguedthatAIcouldtransformdevelopersinto“10,000xengineers.”

Iftheseobservationsaredirectionallycorrect,themost

importantdifferentiatormaynotbeaccesstoartificial

intelligenceitself.Itmaybeorganizationaladaptability:the

AtAffirm“Everyone’sgoingbea10xengineer.

Ifyou’re1xengineeryesterday,youbetter

bea10xengineertomorrow.That’sthenew

baseline.Butifyoureally,reallygetit,if

you’resmeltingyourowncode…you’regoing

tobe10,000xengineer.”

–MaxLevchinTBPNInterviewMay2026

AtCloudflare“thetippingpointwaslastNovember.Atthatpoint,acrossourteams,webegantoseemassiveproductivitygains,

teammembersthatweretwo,10,even100

timesmoreproductivethantheyhadbeen

before.Itwaslikegoingfromamanualtoan

electricscrewdriver.”

–MatthewPrince–Q12026EarningsCall

abilitytointegratenewintelligenceintoworkflows,processes,andorganizationaldecision-makingfasterthancompetitors.

CanWeMeasureOrganizationalAdaptability?

Toexplorethisquestion,weexaminednearly1,000publiclytradedtechnologycompanies,approximately40millionemployeerecords,andfiveyearsofworkforcehistory.Usingalternativedata,weisolatedtechnology-centricemployeesandmeasuredthespreadbetweengrowthinrevenuepertechnicalemployee,aproxyforengineerproductivity,andgrowthinaveragetechnical

UPDATEDISPLAY2

AIProductivitySpreadbyQuintile2

AIProductivitySpread=

(GrowthinRev/TechEmployee–

(GrowthinAvgTechSalary)

Dataset:

750Techcompanies,

40memployeesandcomptracked

CumulativeGrowthfrom1stQ(%)

40%

20%

+6.2%

TopQuintile

AvgFwd.

4QReturn

TopQuintile

vsMedian

Median

0%

-3.1%

AvgFwd.

BottomQuintile

-20%

4QReturn

BottomQuintile

vsMedian

-40%

2022Q42023Q22023Q42024Q22024Q42025Q22025Q4

2Source:MSIM,RevelioLabs,FactSet.Asof3/31/2026.Pastperformanceisnoguaranteeoffutureresults.Theviewsexpressedherearethoseof

CounterpointGlobalanddonotreflecttheopinionsofallInvestmentteamsatMSIMortheviewsofthefirmasawholeandmaynotbereflectedinthestrategiesandproductsthattheFirmoffers.Theinformationaboveisprovidedforinformationalpurposesonlyanddonotconstituteandshouldnotbeconstruedasinvestmentadviceorrecommendations.CompaniesaresortedintoquintileseachquarterbasedontheirAIProductivitySpread.Returns

representforward4-quarterstockperformance,averagedacrosscompanieswithineachquintileandovertimeonarollingbasis.

3Source:MSIM,RevelioLabs,FactSet.Asof3/31/2026.

2MORGANSTANLEYINVESTMENTMANAGEMENT|COUNTERPOINTGLOBAL

compensation,aproxyforthecostofthosefront-lineadoptersofAItools.3WecallthismeasuretheAIProductivitySpread.

WhatHappensWhenProductivityScalesFasterthanCompensation?

Theresultswerenotable.CompanieswiththehighestAIProductivitySpreadgeneratedmateriallystrongerforwardstockreturnsthanmedianandbottom-quintilepeers.

Webelieveanewformofproductivityarbitragemaybe

emerginginsidecertainorganizations,whereAIenables

outputtocompoundfasterthanlaborcosts.Because

traditionalfinancialdisclosuresrarelycapturethesedynamicsdirectly,webelievethissignalmayprovideauniquewindowintoorganizationaladaptability.Werefertothesefirmsas

100xAICultures.

WhoCapturesthisValue?

Softwarecompaniesareoftenamongtheearliestadoptersofnewtechnologiesandmayserveasausefulcanaryinthecoalmineforbroadereconomicchange.

IfAIamplifiesproductivityratherthansimplyreplacinglabor,thecentralquestionbecomeshowtheresultingeconomicsurplusisallocated.UsingFelixOberholzer-Gee’sValueStickframework,thegainscouldaccruetocustomersthroughlowerprices,workersthroughhighercompensation,orshareholdersthroughhigherprofits.Understandingwhichorganizationsaremosteffectiveat

convertingnewintelligenceintoproductivitymaythereforebecomeincreasinglyimportantforinvestors,executives,

andpolicymakersalike.Thisalsoinvitesabroaderpolicy

discussion:whatframeworkscanhelpensurethat

AI-drivenproductivitygainstranslateintodurablevaluecreationforcompanies,workers,investors,andsociety.

ANewSourceofCompetitiveAdvantage

Webelievewehavereachedaninflectionpoint.AImaybecomeubiquitous,buttheabilitytoabsorbiteffectivelymaynot.Asintelligencebecomesabundant,webelievetherate-limitingfactormayshifttotheexecutionlayer.Theorganizationsthatempowertheirbestpeople

withthebesttoolsandadaptthefastestmaycreatedisproportionatevalue.

Foryears,CultureQuanthassoughttomaketheinvisiblemorevisiblebymeasuringculturethroughobservable

behavior.Webelievethenextgenerationofwinnerswill

bedefinedlessbywhohasaccesstoAIandmorebywhocantranslateitintoproductivitythefastest.InanAI-driveneconomy,adaptabilitymaybecomethebridgebetween

intelligenceandcompetitiveadvantage.

ForCounterpointGlobal,theinvestmentopportunityliesinidentifyingtheseadaptableorganizationsearly,beforetheirabilitytotranslateAIintosustainedproductivityandlong-termvaluecreationisfullyreflectedinmarketexpectations.

UPDATEDISPLAY3

CaseStudy:Cloudflare4

CumulativeGrowthfrom1stQ(%)

60%

Rev/TechEmployee

40%

20%

Avg

TechSalary

0%

2022Q42023Q22023Q42024Q22024Q42025Q22025Q4

4Source:MorganStanleyInvestmentManagement,RevelioLabs,FactSet.Asof3/31/2026.TheviewsexpressedherearethoseofCounterpointGlobalanddonotreflecttheopinionsofallInvestmentteamsatMSIMortheviewsofthefirmasawholeandmaynotbereflectedinthestrategiesand

productsthattheFirmoffers.Theinformationaboveisprovidedforinformationalpurposesonlyanddonotconstituteandshouldnotbeconstruedasinvestmentadviceorrecommendationswithrespecttothesecuritieslisted.

CloudflareisaholdingintheTailwindsStrategyasof6/30/2026,representing0.68%oftheholdings.

COUNTERPOINTGLOBAL|MORGANSTANLEYINVESTMENTMANAGEMENT3

4MORGANSTANLEYINVESTMENTMANAGEMENT|COUNTERPOINTGLOBAL

CounterpointGlobalInsights

AIBeneficiaries:

InvestinginSecond-OrderEffects

OriginallypublishedinApril2025

KEYFINDING

WeanticipatetheadoptionofAIandautomationtechnologieswillreshapeworkforces.

OurCultureQuant5toolshelpusestimatewhichcompaniesarebestpositionedtouseAIto

unlockefficiencygainsandmarginexpansionaboveconsensusexpectations.

OURESTIMATES:

IFTHEAUTOMATEDAWAY

REDUCTIONREPRESENTS

1.7Million

FewerJobs

$207Billion

ReducedLaborExpense

COMPANYANALYSIS7

1,000

LargestPublicCompanies

HALF

ofthe“High

+16%

ProfitGrowth

Probabilityof

AutomationRoles”6

Forthetop25%ofcompaniestheprofitpoolexpands

from$311Bto$361B

Wealsoexplorethebroadersocietalimplicationsofthistechnologicalshiftanditseconomicimpactonworkers.

Wehighlightcaseswhereopportunitiesforworkersalignwithcompanyvaluecreation.

AIBeneficiariesResearchSummary

AtCounterpointGlobal,wehavebeenresearchingtheeffectthatartificialintelligence(AI)andautomationmayhaveonthebusinesslandscapeandsociety,includingthebeneficiariesofthesecond-ordereffectsofthesetechnologies.Ourresearchisongoing,butwethoughtwewouldshareourworkonsystematicallydeterminingwhichcompanieshaveworkforcesthatarelikelytobecomemoreefficientasaresultofadoptingAIandautomationtechnologies.

5CultureQuantwasdevelopedbyCounterpointGlobalincollaborationwithacademicexpertsatHarvardBusinessSchoolin2019,leveragesalternativedatasetsandMorganStanley’sMachineLearningLab–seepage7formoredetail.

6InformationonAutomationProbabilityand“WaveModel”canbefoundonpage9.

7UtilizesCounterpointGlobal’s“DynamicLifeCycleAnalysis”toestimateefficiencyallocationbetweencustomers,companyshareholders,andsuppliers(includinglabor).“Profit”referstoEarningsBeforeInterestandTaxes(“EBIT”)–seepage13formoredetail.

COUNTERPOINTGLOBAL|MORGANSTANLEYINVESTMENTMANAGEMENT5

Thisreportpresentsanexampleofhowourdifferentiatedresearchpillarscomplementourfundamental-driveninvestmentprocess:

1.DisruptiveChangeResearch–ThisteamprovidesfoundationalinsightsintoAIandautomationtechnologies,assessingtheirpotentialtoexpandacrossindustries.

2.SustainabilityResearch–ThisteamdevelopedCultureQuanttools,whichgeneratehumancapitalmanagementinsightsusinganalternativedatasetcovering300millionworkers.

3.ConsilientResearch–Thisteamcreatedaframeworktoevaluateacompany’spositioninitslifecycle,helpingdeterminehoweconomicsurplusmaybeallocatedamongstakeholders.

4.SectorExperts&Investors–Theseteammemberssynthesizeinsightsfromalldifferentiatedresearchpillarstocomplementlong-termfundamentals-basedanalysisofcompaniesandsectors.

Ourprimarygoalistousethesetoolsandinvestmentinsightstobenefitourclients.Oursecondarygoalistofosterabroaddialogueonhumancapitalmanagementstrategieswithourportfoliocompanies,clients,andothercollaborators.

Humancapitalmanagementandcompanyculturehavethepotentialtounleashhumaningenuity.WebuiltCultureQuantbecausewebelieveculturerepresentsaformofintangiblevaluethatthestockmarketoftenunderappreciatesandfailstoanalyzesystematically.Since2019,ourCultureQuantstudieshavefocusedonidentifyingwin-winopportunities.Forexample,ourinternalmobilitystudy,whichalignstheeconomicempowermentofemployeeswithvaluecreation,

strengthenedthefinancialjustificationforpromotingfromwithin.

OurnewresearchonAIandautomationismorecomplicated,asitexplorespotentialtensionsamongstakeholders,includingcustomers,shareholders,suppliers,andemployees.Whileadoptingthesetechnologiesmaycreateefficiencies,itcouldalsoreducethenumberofpeopleemployedincertainroles.Wewillnottakeapositiononwhetherorhowcompaniesshould

adoptthesetechnologies.However,werecognizethatAIandautomationtechnologiesarealreadyhere—orwillarriveimminently—andwehaveafiduciarydutytoinvestigatetheramificationsoftheiradoption.

PartofCounterpointGlobal’scultureisservingasahubforinnovativeideas.Inthiscase,webelieveourtoolscanhelpidentifystrategiesthatbenefitbothpeopleandbusinesses.

Forinstance,weareresearchingamethodtoevaluatereskilling.Ourstudyofhorizontalmobility,whichaimstomeasurehowcompaniesprovideemployeeswithnewskillsandjobopportunities,isongoing.

Thisreportiscomprisedoffiveparts:PartIshareslessonsfromthehistoryofinvestinginworld-changingtechnologies;PartIIprovidesanoverviewofCultureQuantinordertointroduceanewmodelontechnologyproliferationacrosstheeconomy;PartIIIpresentsaframeworkfromourcolleaguesinConsilientResearchtoevaluatetheallocationofeconomicsurplus;PartIVsharesexamplesofhowtheseinsightscontributetoourportfolio;andPartVconcludeswithadiscussiononthebroadersocietalimplicationsoftechnologicalevolution.

Flashback:QuotefromBerkshireHathawayAnnualShareholdersMeetingMay2018:

ANDREWROSSSORKIN:“ThenextquestionisfromThomasKamei(InvestoratCounterpointGlobal)whoisintheaudiencetoday.Iwillprefacethisquestionbysayingthathewashere[in2000]andatage10askedyoufromtheaudienceiftheInternetmighthurtsomeof

Berkshire’sinvestments?Atthetimeyousaidyouwantedtoseehowthingswouldplayout.Hehasnowupdatedthequestion:Whatdo

youthinkaretheimplicationsofArtificialIntelligenceonBerkshire’sbusinesses,anddoyouthinkBerkshire’scurrentbusinesseswillhavemoreorlessemployeesadecadefromnowasafunctionofAI?”

WARRENBUFFETT:“IcertainlyhavenospecialinsightsasitrelatestoAI,butwouldbetlotofthingswillhappen.Iwouldthink[AI]wouldresultinsignificantlylessemploymentincertainareas,butthat’sgoodforsociety,whileitmightnotbegoodforagivenbusiness…[More

technologyis]enormouslypro-socialeventually…it’senormouslydisruptiveinotherwaysanditcancreatehugeproblemsfora

democracy,inhowitreactstothat.”

CHARLIEMUNGER:“Idon’tthinkitwouldbegoodforAmericaif

everythingwasproducedbyoneperson[utilizingAI]andtherestofusjustengagedinleisure.”

WARRENBUFFETT:“Whatifwegottwiceasproductiveinashortperiodoftime?Sothat75millionpeoplecoulddowhat150millionpeoplearecurrentlydoing?”

CHARLIEMUNGER:“Ithinkyou’dbeamazedbyhowquicklypeople

wouldreacttothatfavorably.It’ssimilartotheEisenhoweryears,wesaw5%[ofproductivitygains]peryearandpeoplelovedit.”

WARRENBUFFETT:“Well,it’sonethingifyoucuteveryone’shoursinhalf,butifyoufirehalfthepeopleandtheotherhalfkeepworking…”CHARLIEMUNGER:(InterruptsWarren)“Idon’tthinkyouneedto

worryabout25%[efficiencygains]comingperyear.What’sactually

worrisomeisthescenariowherewegetlessthan2%productivitygainsperyear.”

WARRENBUFFETT:(Laughs)“Okay,we’llmoveon!It’sanabsolutelyfascinatingsubject.But,it’sveryhardtopredictwhatwillhappen…”

6MORGANSTANLEYINVESTMENTMANAGEMENT|COUNTERPOINTGLOBAL

DISPLAY4

Investingin“World-ChangingTechnology”

StudyingTechnologicalShiftsandValueCreationOvertheLastCentury

Automobile

Wi-Fi

AI

UbiquitousTransportationTechnology

GlobalUbiquitousStandard

EmergingTrend

USAutoManufacturers

WirelessRouterManufacturers

GPU+HardwareManufacturers

Consolidationand

AggressiveCompetition

Commoditization

ToBeDetermined

Suburbanization:

RichContentDelivery:

AutomationandGenAI:

Big-BoxRetail

StreamingVideo

HighEfficiencyLabor

WALMART:1,622xReturn(‘80-‘20)

FORD:23xReturn(‘80-‘20)

NETFLIX:519xReturn(‘02-‘20)

CISCO:4xReturn(‘02-’20)

???

190020002024

WorldChangingTechnology

Ubiquity

1stOrderBeneficiary:InvestmentExample

1stOrderBeneficiary:

InvestmentExampleOutcome

2ndOrderBeneficiary:

ThemeEnabledbyTechnology

2ndOrderBeneficiary:

InvestmentExampleOutcome

Source:MorganStanleyInvestmentManagementCounterpointGlobal,FactSet,

www.H,U.S.DepartmentofTransportationFederalHighway

Administrationasof12/31/2023.

PartI–InvestinginWorld-ChangingTechnologies

Wehavestudiedthemajortechnologicalshiftsofthepastcentury,recognizingthattheseforcescandisruptentire

industriesandreshapetheinvestmentlandscape.OurDisruptiveChangeResearcheffort,ledbyStanDeLaney,beganin2004andseekstoidentifycompaniespoisedtodisruptindustries,aswellasthoseincumbentbusinessesatrisk.

Onepatternwehaveidentifiedinstudyingworld-changingtechnologiesisthatthebestinvestmentswereoftennotthe

obvious,first-orderonesbutratherthesecond-orderones.Intheshortterm,themarketoftenbidsuptheenablersofnewtechnologies,butoverthelongterm,thecompaniesthateffectivelyusethesetechnologiescreatethemostenduringvalue.

Forexample,ifyouhadanticipatedthatautomobileswouldredefinetransportationinthe20thcenturyandinvestedinabasketofU.S.automobilemanufacturersin1920,youwouldhaveexperiencedextremecompetition,massiveconsolidation,andsubparequityreturns.Bycontrast,ifyouhadrecognizedthesecond-ordereffectthatautomobileswouldenable

suburbanization,youmighthaveanticipatedtheriseofthebig-boxretailindustry.AninvestmentinWalmartin1980—onedecadeafteritsinitialpublicoffering(IPO)—wouldhavereturnedover1,600xitsvalueby2020.Thisisroughly70xthereturnofholdingFord,anautomobilemanufacturer,overthesameperiod.8

Similarly,ifyouhadforeseenthatWi-FiwouldbecomeaglobalstandardandinvestedinWi-Firoutermanufacturers,

youwouldhaverealizedrelativelypoorshareholderreturnsastheproductbecamecommoditized.Ontheotherhand,

recognizingthatthestreamingvideoindustrywasasecond-ordereffectandinvestinginNetflixatitsIPOin2002,wouldhavereturnedover500xyourinitialinvestment.Thatismorethan100xbetterthanthereturnsofCisco,anetworkingandwirelesssolutionsmanufacturer,overthatsameperiod.8

AIistheemergenttechnologythatthemarketiscurrentlyfocusedon.Investorshavegravitatedtowardthefirst-order

beneficiaries—themanufacturersofgraphicsprocessingunits(GPUs),whichareadominantenablerfortraininglarge

languagemodels(LLMs).LLMsaremachinelearningmodelsdesignedfornaturallanguageprocessingtasks.Overtime,theymaybecomemultimodal,capableofbothprocessingandgeneratingimages,audio,andvideo.

8FactSet.

9

/docs/WEF_Future_of_Jobs_Report_2025.pdf

DISPLAY5

COUNTERPOINTGLOBAL|MORGANSTANLEYINVESTMENTMANAGEMENT7

CultureQuant–CounterpointGlobalProprietaryTool

AlternativeData+MorganStanleyMachineLearningResearchTeam+CGSustainabilityResearch

SoftwareEngineerScientistRecruiterCleanerDriver

+150Roles

SystemsEngineerCompliance

CrewMemberContentSpecialistAccountManager

~300mUserDataset

CultureQuant

CultureQuant

$X00,000

AvgYearlyComp

Exec

EmployeeCost

Structure

$X0,000

AvgComp

MidMgmt

$X0,000

AvgComp

EntryLevel

VariableCOGS

LogisticsManufacturingDriverCleaner

General&Admin

HRLegal

RecruiterCompliance

Sales&Marketing

MarketingSales

ContentSpec.AcctManager

Research&Dev

DevMaintenance

SoftwareEng.SystemsEng.

Source:MorganStanleyInvestmentManagementCounterpointGlobal,RevelioLabsasofSeptember2024.

Note:Ourstudyutilized100millionemployeesfor2023,34millionemployeesaremappedtothespecificpubliccompaniesutilizedinthestudy

TheMachineLearningResearchTeamatMorganStanleyiscomprisedofhyper-specialistresearcherswhoworkonfundamentalandcomplexproblemsacrosstheFirm,suchasinFixedIncome,InvestmentManagement,ElectronicTrading,andothergroups.ThisisanappliedresearchlabthatcreatesnewproductsandbuildholisticsystemswithMachineLearningtrulyatthecenter.Thelabworksinawidevarietyofareasincludingtimeseriesanalysis,

recommendersystems,networktheory,LLMs,NLPforfinance,fairnessandprivacy.

Thelong-termoutcomeforchipmanufacturersremainsuncertain,butthehistoryofotherdisruptivetechnologiessuggeststhatcapitalismensuresearlyadvantagesareeventuallycompetedaway.However,wehaveconvictioninonesecond-ordereffectofAI:significantproductivitygainsinbothblue-andwhite-collarlabor.

TheWorldEconomicForum’sFutureofJobsReport2025surveyedover1,000employersrepresenting14millionworkers,and86%ofrespondentsexpectAItotransformtheirbusinessesby2030.9Thistransitionwillbeenabledbyentrepreneursthatdevelopapplicationswhichbringthesetechnologiesintoenterpriseenvironments.Thisdevelopmentraisesabroaderquestion:whichpubliccompanieshaveworkforcestructuresthatcouldbenefitfromsignificantefficiencygains.

WewillshareacasestudyonhowweuseCultureQuanttools,theDynamicLifeCycleAnalysisframework,andexpertisefromourSustainability,ConsilientandDisruptiveChangeResearchteamstosystematicallyidentifycompanieswiththepotentialforAIandautomation-drivenproductivitygains.

PartII–CultureQuant:AIBeneficiaries

Therehasbeenasecularchangeinhowcompaniesinvest,withashifttowardintangibleassets(e.g.,intellectualproperty)andawayfromtangibleassets(e.g.,productivefactories).Currentaccountingstandardswereprimarilydesignedtomeasuretangiblecapital;therefore,financialreportingstrugglestoquantifyhumancapitalandculture.

Thisdeficiencyhasbecomeincreasinglyacute,ashumaningenuityisthedrivingforcebehindintangiblecapital,andsome

corporateculturesarebetterthanothersatfosteringcreativity.In2019,CounterpointGlobal’sSustainabilityResearchteambegancollaboratingwithacademicexpertsfromHarvardBusinessSchooltoenhanceourunderstandingofthevalueof

humancapitalwithincompanies.Ourproprietary“CultureQuant”processisaresultofthatresearch.

Webelievethisworkhelpsaligntheinterestofinvestorsandemployeesbydemonstratingthatemployeesarekeystakeholdersinacompany’ssuccess,contributingtobothbusinessdifferentiationandattractiveshareholderreturns.Ourgoalistobetterunderstandcorporatecultureandcreateasystematicmethodforevaluatingit.

DISPLAY6

8MORGANSTANLEYINVESTMENTMANAGEMENT|COUNTERPOINTGLOBAL

VisualizingEmployeeCostStructure

CompanyExample:EcolabInc.

Technical

Support

Engineer

Cleaner

Scientist

LabTech

Quality

Assurance

CultureQuant

Process

Engineer

Application

Engineer

Auditor

Crew

Member

Manufacturing

Variable/

Manufacturing

Customer

Service

Maintenance

Development

Research&

Development

Legal&Risk

Mechanical

Engineer

Human

Resources

Management

Sales

Associate

Communications

HRSpecialist

Accountant

Financial

Analyst

Operations

Marketing

Sales&

Management

Crew

Logistics

Logistics

Ecolab

48K

Global

employees

BranchManager

BusinessAdministration&Finance

Operations

General&

Marketing

Member

Security

Specialist

Marketing

Sales

Step1

2023Disclosures

Sales

Training

Specialist

Inside

Sales

SalesRep

Account

Manager

Sales

Engineer

Source:MorganStanleyInvestmentManagementCounterpointGlobal,EcolabInc.,RevelioLabsasof12/31/2023.

CultureQuantResearch&KeyFindings

OurinitialCultureQuantresearchwasconductedinpartnershipwithMorganStanley’sMachineLearningResearchLabandutilizedanalternativedatasetprovidingmonthlyemployerdataformorethan300millionemployeesoverthe

pastdecade.Thisdatasetenabledustoestimateemployeeturnoveratthecompanylevel,akeystatisticthatmost

compa