麦肯锡 -哪些趋势正在影响食品饮料行业 What trends are influencing the food and beverage industry

October2026

McKinsey

&Company

ConsumerPackagedGoodsPractice

Focus,scale,fund:TheAIplaybookCPGleadersaremissing

Smallbrandsareout-innovatinggiants,buyingpatternsarechanging,andscaleisn'ttheshielditusedtobe.Here'showAlcouldhelpfundthenextwaveofgrowthinfoodandbeverage.

Fordecades,foodandbeveragecompaniescouldcountonpopulationgrowthandgeographicexpansiontocreateresults.Thatenginehassputteredout,andinvestorshavepunishedthe

sectorforit—theindustryshednearly$1trillioninenterprisevalue.OnthisepisodeofThe

McKinseyPodcast,SeniorPartnersDuncanMillerandFrankSängerspeakwithEditorial

DirectorRobertaFusaroaboutwhat’sbehindthemassivevaluationdrop,whytheindustry’soldmoat—scaleandbrandloyalty—nolongerholds,andwhyconsumer-packaged-goods(CPG)

leadersshouldviewAInotjustasacost-cuttingtoolbutastheenginethatfundsgrowthitself.

TheMcKinseyPodcastiscohostedbyLuciaRahillyandRobertaFusaro.

Thefollowingtranscripthasbeeneditedforclarityandlength.

Towatchthefull-lengthversionofthisinterview,pleasevisitTheMcKinseyPodcastplaylistonMcKinsey’sYouTubechannel.

Atrillion-dollarwake-upcall

RobertaFusaro:McKinsey’sStateofFoodandBeveragereportsuggeststhatthefoodandbeveragesectorlostclosetoatrilliondollarsinenterprisevalue.Whataccountsforthisloss?

FrankSänger:Thefoodandbeveragesectorhasbeenaveryhigh-performingindustryfora

longtime.Evenintheearly2000s,itwasverysuccessfulingeneratinglotsofgrowth

momentum,amountingtorevenuegrowthofaround9percent.Inthe2010s,thatdroppedquitedramaticallytoaround3percent.That’swhenthestructuralshiftreallystarted.Itwasmasked

bytheCOVIDpandemicbutcontinuedafterward,simplybecausewithlesspopulationgrowthandlessgeographicexpansion,companieshaven’tbeenabletokeepupthatgrowth

momentum.That’satleastonemajorsource.

DuncanMiller:Thetrillion-dollarfigureisobviouslyaheadline-grabbingnumber,butifyou

unpackitalittle,alotofthemorerecentdrophasbeenaboutexpectations.AsFranksaid,in

theearly2000sandintothe2010s,companieswererealizingsustainedvolumegrowthintheircategories.Inthe2020s,thatfelloff,andmuchoftherevenuegrowthwasledbyproductpriceandmixinstead.Investorssaid,“Thisindustryhastogrowvolumesinordertosustainhigh

valuations,”sothevaluationdrop-offwassignificant.We’veseensomeleadersbegintorestorevolumegrowthin2026,whichisrestoringconfidenceinafeworganizations.However,thekeyquestioniswhetherthisindustrycansustainthetrajectoryit’senjoyedformanydecades.

FrankSänger:TheconsequenceoftheseshiftingexpectationsthatDuncanmentionedisthatEBITmultiplesdroppedaswell.Forexample,multiplesforleadingfoodandbeverage

companiesdroppedfromaround17to14times.

RobertaFusaro:That’sasignificantchange.Oneofthemoreinterestingthemescomingoutofthereportformewasthatconsumersaresimultaneouslytradingdownandtradingup.They’ll

Focus,scale,fund:TheAIplaybookCPGleadersaremissing2

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buyprivate-labelpastabutsplurgeonfunctionalbeveragesorpremiumsnacks.Howdoyoumakesenseofthatseeminglycontradictorybehavior?

DuncanMiller:There’sbeenatrendforawhileofpeoplespendingonindulgencewhilealso

savingmoneyelsewhere.Withthemassivefoodandbeverageinflationwe’veseenoverthepastfewyears,whichcanbemorethan20or30percent-plusinsomegeographies,thattensionhasbecomemoreacute.We’veseenamoremeaningfulshiftinabehaviorthatwasalreadyevidentinthemarket.Intermsofdiningoutandfooddelivery,it’sobviouslymucheasierthanitever

wastoaccessthoseservices.ButwhenyoulookattheaffordabilitysqueezeintheUS,for

example,foodaccountsfornorthof30percentofspendingamongthepooresthouseholds.

Peoplearereallyparingback.Candidly,beneaththat,private-labelqualityhasgottenalot

betterintheUS.It’salwaystrailedEurope,buttheUSisclosingthegap.Peoplearelookingtoindulgeindeliciousthingswheneatingawayfromhome,butalsolookingtopareback.They’recookingathomemore,eatingmoreleftovers,andshiftingtoprivatelabelinaUSmarketthatwasalwaysmuchlessmaturethanotherpartsoftheworld.

FrankSänger:Privatelabel,asDuncansaid,hasbecomemuchbetter-qualityproducts,with

moreconvenience.Atthesametime,smaller,disruptivebrandsarefulfillingunmetneedsthatthebigbrandshaven’tbeenabletomeet.Thebigbrandsarebeingsqueezedfrombothangles.

RobertaFusaro:Exactly—scalehasalwaysbeenoneofthebiggestcompetitiveadvantagesinfoodandbeverage,andyetrelativelysmallbrandsarecapturingdisproportionategrowth.Whatarethesmallbrandsdoingdifferentlythatincumbentsarestrugglingtoreplicate?

FrankSänger:Inmymind,thescaleadvantagestillexists,andthebigbrandsstillownit.Whatsmallbrandsareverygoodatisbeingconsumerbacked.Smallerbrandsarecomingupwith

valuepropositionsthatbiggerbrandsaren’tfulfillingandarerespondingmuchmorequicklytochangingconsumerneeds.

DuncanMiller:Afewotherchangeshelpedtofavorsmallbrands.Acquiringverytargeted

customergroupsthroughdigitalmediaisnowmuchmorestraightforwardforasmallbrand.

Whenyoulookatwhichofthebiggestbrandsareoutperforming,it’snotjustthatthebrandorproductisgreat;it’sthattheirdistributionsystemgivesthemarealadvantagethatsmallbrandsstruggletomatch.Physicalretail,whetherit’sclickandcollectorotherwise,isstillanincrediblyimportantpartofhowconsumersgettheirproducts.

RobertaFusaro:Thereisanoldassumptioninthisdiscussionaroundprivatelabelandbrand

dedicationthatstrongbrandsnaturallycommandloyalty.However,yourresearchsuggestsfoodandbeverageconsumershaven’tstoppedcaringaboutbrands;they’vejustbecomemore

selective.What’schanginginthemindoftheconsumerthere?

DuncanMiller:Bigbrandshavehistoricallycapturedadisproportionateshareofgrowth.As

Franksaid,thathasshiftedtowardsmallbrandsoverthepastfiveyears.Categorieshave

enormouslyevolved.Forexample,“tea”usedtohavesweetenedorunsweetenedoptions.Now

Focus,scale,fund:TheAIplaybookCPGleadersaremissing4

‘Whatsmallbrandsareverygoodatisbeingconsumerbacked.’

thereare17differentvarieties,likematcha,probiotic,oolong,andathousandothers.Itis

tougherforabigbrandtospanallthoseniches,whichstructurallycreatesroomforsmallerbrandstocomeinandownaportionofthatspace.

Theotherbigshiftwithconsumersisthattheyusedtosee“betterforyou”and“greattaste”asatrade-off.Somesmallerbrandshavecomeupwithgreat-tasting,better-for-youproductsinthepastfewyears.Ifyoulookatinnovationratesamonglargerplayersinsomecategories,muchoftheirchangeshaven’tbeennewtomarket;they’vebeenrenovationorrestaging.Whathas

happenedisthatalotofchangeshaveenabledsmallbrandstogrowintothespacethat’sopenedinthesecategories.

Consumersnolongerjustwanttasteandconvenience.Theywantbetter-for-youandfunctionalfoodandbeverage.Smallerbrandshavejumpedintothisfragmentedmarketplaceanddonea

greatjob.Therearestillplentyofthingsthatmakelifedifficultforsmallbrands,butthat’swhat’screatedroominthemarket.

RobertaFusaro:Didyouseeanydifferencesbetweenolderandyoungerconsumersinhowtheyapproachfoodandbeveragepurchases?

FrankSänger:Youngerconsumershave,inrecentyears,beenmorehealthconsciousthan

olderconsumers,andthey’renotwillingtocompromiseonthosebenefits.Thatdrivessomeof

thechangesDuncandescribed.Millennials,inparticular,aremuchmorefocusedonhealthiness.IfIthinkaboutmyownkidsasanexample,they’resuperfocusedonhealthbenefitslikeproteinandfiber.

DuncanMiller:Infoodandbeveragespecifically,weseethatboomers,despitetheiradvancingyears,arestillnotaswillingtosacrificetasteandconvenience.They’restilltellingus,“Iwantthestuffthat’sdeliciousandeasy,”eventhoughtheyalsocookathomemore.Also,tostatethe

obvious,GenZishighlyinfluencedbydigitalmediaintermsofwhattheychoose.Theyaremuchmoredigitallyinfluencedcomparedwithothergenerations,thoughothergenerationsare

catchingup,particularlyonhealthandwellness.

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AnewwayofthinkingaboutAIinCPG

RobertaFusaro:ThereportarguesthatAIinfoodandbeverageisn’tjustaboutcuttingcosts;it’salsoaboutfundinggrowth.That’sadifferentframingthanweoftenhear.Canyoutalkaboutwhatthatlookslikeinpractice?

FrankSänger:Oneimportantpointtiesbacktowhatwediscussedaboutcapitalmarketsatthebeginningofourconversation.ThecapitalmarkethonorsgrowthforCPGandfoodand

beveragecompaniesmuchmorethanmarginexpansion.Consequently,it’scriticalthatfoodandbeveragecompaniesdrivegrowth.Thebenefitfrommarginexpansionaloneismuchsmaller.

That’swhyit’simportanttoreinvestsomeofthe“savings”fromAIintoacceleratinggrowthandcreatingmorevalueforthecompany.

DuncanMiller:Beyondjustsavingmoneytoinvestingrowingvolume,theCPGandfoodand

beverageleaderswehaveseenarealreadyusingAItoenablegrowthitself.TherearemarketingleaderswhohaveusedAItofundamentallytransformhowtheymarkettoconsumersand

generatedemand.ThereareleadersinrevenuemanagementwhoareusingAInotonlytofigureouthowmuchpricetotakeandwherebutalsotoidentifypocketsofvolumeopportunityfor

pricingandpromotion.Leadersinsales,particularlythosewhocontroltheirowndistribution,areusingAItoshaperecommendedorderquantitiesandsuggesttherightassortmentandbuy-in

levels,bothwithorganizedandfragmentedtrade.

We’realreadyseeingleadersdriverealgrowthwithAIintherealworld,notjustinpilots.As

everyonegetsmoreefficient,thiswillmatterasasourceoffundingand,equally,asagenuinedriverofgrowthatthefrontlinewithconsumers.There’sgoodtractionsofar,andsomeveryimpressiveworkfrombothlargerCPGsandsmallerenterprises.

RobertaFusaro:Plentyofcompaniesarestartingtogetitright.WhataretheobstaclesfortheCPGcompaniesthataren’tasfaralong?

FrankSänger:EveryCPGcompanyIseeisheavilyinvestinginandexperimentingwithAI.Thebiggestchallengeisthatonlyafewaretrulyabletoscaleanddeployitacrosstheorganization.Notmanycompaniesareseeingthefullbenefitsyet.Everyonebelievesinit,butithasn’tfully

shownupintheP&L[profitandloss].Oneofthecorereasonsisthat,byexperimentingacrosstoomanyareasatonce,nosingleareaseesthefullimpact.Werecommendfocusingfullyonasingledomain,ratherthanrunningtrialseverywheresimultaneously,totrulycapturethebenefitwithinthatonedomain.

DuncanMiller:That’sexactlyright.We’vebeeninaperiodof“pilotitis,”andthat’snot

somethinguniquetoCPGandfoodandbeverage.It’strueacrossmanyotherindustries,too.AsFranksaid,youshouldpickadomain,ideallyonethatdrivesthetopline,particularlyvolume,

andgoafteritproperlyandfully.Perhapsyoubeginwithoneortwodomainstoreallyscalethem,likerevenuemanagement,marketing,orsales.That’sreallythekey:focus,scale,and

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fund.

RobertaFusaro:Didthereportsurfaceanydifferencesamongconsumersindifferent

geographies?Istheeraofbeingaglobalbrandover?Weretheregeographicaldifferencesthereporthighlighted?

FrankSänger:Ofcourse,therearedifferentnuancesacrossgeographies.Cookingathome,forinstance,playsoutonadifferentscaleinEuropecomparedwithNorthAmerica.Privatelabel

anddiscountedoptionsplayadifferentroleinEuropeversusNorthAmerica.Health

consciousnessandGLP-1adoptionaremuchmoreadvancedintheUSthanalmostanywhereelseintheworld.Therearemanynuances,andI’dsaysmallbrandsareverygoodattargetingthespecificconsumerdemandswithindifferentgeographies.

DuncanMiller:Andobviously,inanincreasinglycomplexgeopoliticalworld,that’screatedroomforregionalbrandstoshineversusglobalonesinafewcategories.That’stheotherfactorthatplaysoutverydifferentlybyregion,alongwithnationaltastepreferences.

Thetraditionalrulesofcompetitionhavechanged

RobertaFusaro:Ifwesitdownandhavethisconversationagaininthreeyears,whatwill

determinethetopperformersinCPGfoodandbeverage?WillthebigfactorbeAI,portfoliochoices,productinnovation,orsomethingelse?

FrankSänger:Ibelievealltheabove.Threethingsinparticularstandouttome.First,youwill

needtomakesmartportfoliochoicesaroundcategories,healthandfunctionalbenefits,and

geographies.Youmustbelaserfocusedonwheretruegrowthcancomefrom.Second,you

mustinvestinyourproductinnovationandaskyourself,“What’sreallydrivingvalueforthe

consumer?”Thatcouldbeaffordabilityononeend,orpremiumingredients,health,andtasteontheother.Winningonproductisthatsecondpiece.Andthirdwillbefundingthatgrowth

throughAI.AIwillbethedifferencemaker,inmymind.

DuncanMiller:IwouldaddinnovationtoFrank’slist.Trueproductinnovationfromlarger

playershashistoricallybeenstark.Consumerexpectationsarenowextremelyhigh.They’renotwillingtosacrificetasteforqualityandhealth,socompaniesmustdeliveronallthreetargets.

Fromarevenuemanagementstandpoint,youneedtodoitaffordablyforpartsofthepopulationwhilestillchargingapremiumwhererealbenefitsexist.Forme,innovationisthemostimportantthingforCPGstogetright,andnearlyallofthemareal