摩根大通-全球宏观展望与策略：全球利率、大宗商品、汇率及新兴市场-

GlobalMarketsStrategy

02November2026

GlobalMacroOutlookandStrategy

GlobalRates,Commodities,CurrenciesandEmergingMarkets

LuisOganesAC(44-20)7742-1420

luis.oganes@J.P.MorganSecuritiesplc

Seetheendpagesofthispresentationforanalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures.

Overallsummary

USRates

WethinkWarsh’spressconferenceperformancesupportsmodestlylowerfront-endyieldsandasteepercurve.Thecurveremainssomewhatflatgiven

medium-termFedpolicyexpectationsandshouldsteepeniftheTreasurymakesnomajordebtmanagementstrategychanges:hold10s/30ssteepeners.

Giventhecurvetradeslikealow-betadurationlong,itshouldstandtobenefitshouldthenascentweaknessinriskassetsbecomemorepervasive.Atthe

Novemberrefundingannouncement,weexpectforwardguidance,nominalcouponauctionsizes,andbuybacksizestobeleftunchanged:theriskisskewedtowardcuttinglongertermauctionsizes,thoughweseenovalidreasontotakethisaction.

InternationalRates

DMratesmarketdevelopmentsweremixedthisweekwithUSyieldsoutperformingcross-market.Marketattentionremainedongeopoliticaldevelopmentsandonpersistentweaknessintechequities,givensofterearningsreleases.Centralbankmeetings(Fed,ECB,BoJ,RBNZ)andtheUKbudget

announcementwerealsoinfocus.

Currencies

ADemsweepcouldbemildlydollar-bearish,whileasurpriseRepublicanoutperformance(retainingtheSenate)dollar-positive.OverallpolicyimplicationsareexpectedtobelimitedwithUSequityexceptionalismpersistingineithercase,whichshouldultimatelybeUSD-supportive.Carrydrawdownsextended;WhiletherecouldbeacaseforinvestorstoreduceexposuretodefendPnLintoyear-end,themedium-termoutlookstilllooksdecentgivenwideyieldgaps,solongasavol/adversegrowthshockisavoided.WeremainconstructiveonhighyieldersinG10(AUD,NOK,USD),butinEMourstrategistshavebecomemoreselective.EUR,ratherthanCHFandJPY,ispreferredfunderwithhighconviction.G10centralbankmeetingscontinue:RBA/BoE/NorgesBanktokeep

bullishcaseforAUD,GBPandNOKintact;RiksbankunabletoturnthetideonSEK.

Commodities

Acrossmuchoftheworld,economiescontinuetogrow—inmanycasesabovepotential—whilepetroleumconsumptioncontracts,insomecasesatratesmorecommonlyassociatedwitharecession.SincetheUSandIsraelioperationagainstIranandtheeffectiveclosureofHormuz,regionalexportershaveusedbypasspipelines,alternativeroutes,dark-modesailingandSTStransferstokeepenergymoving.

Whileunderlyingfundamentalsremaingenerallysupportive,ourdiscussionsoncopperlastweektiltedtowardscautiousuncertainty,probingthedownsiderisksmainlycenteredaroundhowtariffinactionfromtheUScouldunwindsomeofthemetal’sdislocationpremium.USexportsalesshouldbemonitoredamidenhancedcompetitivenessfollowingtherecentpricebreak,weatherremainscritical,particularlyacrossSouthAmerica,whereElNiño-relatedrainfallanomaliescontinuetointensify.AftertheUSMidTerms,attentionwillturntotheUSDA’sNovember10thWASDE.

EmergingMarkets

Tensionsarestartingtoemergeassustainedenergyandyieldpressuresfeedthroughtofiscalconcerns,volatilityandgrowthexpectations.

Ourbasecaseisforthereflationarybackdroptoprevail,justifyingfurtherEMFXcarryreturns,butwetrimourportfoliotofocusonthehighestcarrycandidatesandstrongestidiosyncraticstories.

Weseesomeemergingconstraintsonfurtherterminalraterepricing,whileweremaincautiousonthelong-end,wherefiscalconcernsandsupply/demandhaveyettoplayoutintocurvesteepnessandASWs.

Agenda

Page

1

USrates:Dryingupconversation,youwillbetheonewhocannottalk

4

2

Internationalrates:FocusbroadensfromEuroratestoglobalmacro

13

3

Currencies:Thedollarread-acrossfromUSmidterms

21

4

Commodities:Growingwithoutoil

34

5

EmergingMarkets:StayOWEMFXandMWRates,EMSovereigns&Corporate

39

6

Appendix

45

WeprojecttheFedtohikeinDec2026.Welookfor2-and10-yearTreasuryyieldstoreach4.70%and5.05%byYE26andtoremainaroundthatlevelinto1H27

J.P.MorganUSinterestrateforecast,%

Actual

30-Oct-26

1mahead30-Nov-26

4Q26

31-Dec-26

1Q27

31-Mar-27

2Q27

30-Jun-27

3Q27

30-Sep-27

Rates(%)

Effectivefundsrate

3.88

3.90

4.15

4.15

4.15

4.15

SOFR

3.94

3.90

4.15

4.15

4.15

4.15

2-yrTreasury

4.58

4.60

4.70

4.65

4.60

4.55

3-yrTreasury

4.65

4.70

4.75

4.70

4.65

4.60

5-yrTreasury

4.72

4.75

4.90

4.95

4.90

4.85

7-yrTreasury

4.81

4.85

5.00

5.05

5.00

4.95

10-yrTreasury

4.93

4.95

5.05

5.10

5.05

5.00

20-yrTreasury

5.34

5.35

5.45

5.50

5.45

5.40

30-yrTreasury

5.31

5.35

5.45

5.50

5.45

5.45

Spreads(bp)Fedfunds/2yr

70

70

55

50

45

40

2s/10s

35

35

35

45

45

45

2s/5s

14

15

20

30

30

30

5s/10s

21

20

15

15

15

15

5s/30s

59

60

55

55

55

60

10s/30s

38

40

40

40

40

45

Source:J.P.Morgan

·WeforecastUSGDPwillrow2.5%(4/q4)in2026,whilecorePCEremainsfirmat3.2%(q4/q4).Theunemploymentrateshouldremainstableover2026,at4.1%(%q/q,saar)in4Q26

·WeexpecttheFedtodeliveranadditional25bprateshikeattheDecembermeeting,raisingthefundsratetargetrangeto4.00-4.25%,asrisingrealgrowthamidgradualdisinflationallowsthemtobepatientinOctober

·Againstthisbackdrop,wesee2-yearTreasuryyieldsreaching4.70%byYE26.Meanwhile10-yearyieldsshouldfallto5.05%byYE26

J.PMorgan

J.PMorgan

Thecurvestillappearssomewhatflatversusdrivers:hold10s/30ssteepeners,whichalsostandstobenefitfrominactionondebtmanagementstrategyorriskassetweakness

Residualof10s/30sTreasurycurve(bp)regressedon1y1yOISrates(%)*;bp

Dailychangein2-yearTreasuryyields,2s/30sTreasurycurve,and10-yearTIPSbreakevensonFOMCdaysduringtheWarshera;bp

JuneJulySeptemberOctober

Source:J.P.Morgan*R-squared=85.3%,SE=3.3bp

Source:J.PMorgan

·AttheFOMCmeeting,marketmovementscloselyalignedwiththedovishoutcomeinJuly,albeitwithalowerbeta.Warshh

avoidedratifyingthesoftforwardguidanceinthepolicystatement,andalsocutthenumberofpolicymeetingsincomingyearswethinkthissupportsmodestlylowerfront-endyieldsandasteepercurve

·Werecommendmaintaining10s/30ssteepeners:thecurveremainssomewhatflatgivenmedium-termFedpolicyexpectationsandshouldstandtobenefitiftheTreasurymakesnomajordebtmanagementstrategychangesattheNovemberrefunding

announcement..

·…Giventhecurvetradeslikealow-betadurationlong,itshouldalsostandtobenefitshouldthenascentweaknessinriskassetsbecomemorepervasive

J.PMorgan

Wecontinuetoexpectadeficitof$1.96tninFY27,andsee$2.202tninnetprivately-heldborrowinginCY27

J.P.Morganprojectionofnetprivately-heldborrowing,Treasurybuybacks,FederalReservepurchasesofTreasuries,andexpectedchangeinTreasuriesheldbyprivateinvestors;$bn

Year

Totalnetprivately-

held

borrowing

Buybacks

Fedsecondary

Netchangein

privately-helddebt

outstanding

BillsCoupons

marketBills

purchasesCoupons

CY2020CY2021

4301

0

1572184

2390-432

1607

0

0938

-11951957

CY2022

1681

0

099

-371539

CY2023

3122

0

00

20471107

CY2024

2422

85

00

5381823

CY2025

2105

195

380

3221719

CY2026

2038

285

3600

4011265

CY2027

2202

330

1800

9911031

Source:U.S.Treasury,J.P.Morgan

·Withlitlenewinformationaboutfurtherreconciliationpackagesorgovernmentfinancing,ourprojectionfortheFY27deficit

remainsunchangedat$1.960tn.Wedon'tforeseemuchrisktothesenumbersstemmingdirectlyfromthemidterms,asmostroadsappeartoleadtosomeformofdividedgovernmentandaless-conduciveenvironmentforpassingbroadfiscalpackages

·Weproject$2.038tninnetprivately-heldborrowinginCY26,and$2.202tninCY27.NetofFedpurchasesandbuybacks,thistranslatestoanincreaseof$401bninprivately-heldT-billsoutstandinginCY26,and$991bninCY27,whichwouldamounttotheheaviestyearofT-billissuancesince2023

J.PMorgan

WenowexpectTreasurytomaintainitsforwardguidanceinto2027andexpectTreasurytomaintaincurrentauctionsizesthroughAugust2027(versusFebruary2027previously)

USTreasurynetcouponborrowingcapacityunderunchangedissuance*andunderJ.P.Morganforecast**versustotal

fundingneeds;$bn

ForecastedIncreases

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

FY2029FY2030

BorrowingCapacity●—Fundingneeds

FY2027FY2028

*IncorporatesSOMAadd-onsfrommaturitiesoffirst-timeFedbillpurchases

**Assumesmulti-quarterseriesofincreasesto2sthrough10sbeginninginFebruary2027

Source:USTreasury,CBO,J.P.Morgan

T-billshareoftotaldebt,includingJ.P.Morganforecasts*;%

28%

25%

22%

19%

16%

13%

10%

201420162018202020222024202620282030

*J.P.Morganforecastsreflectamulti-quarterseriesofnominalcouponauctionsize

increasesbeginninginAugust2027concentratedin2sthrough10s,while20sand30sareleftunchanged,andassumeRMPsatapaceof$10bn/mo

Source:USTreasury,J.P.Morgan

TreasuryunexpectedlytweakeditsforwardguidanceinAugust,replacing“potentialfutureincreasestonominalcouponandFRNauctionsizes,"with“changes.”Atfacevalue,thisimpliesamoretwo-sidedrisktofuturechangesincouponauctionsizes

·WeseeafundinggapthatopensinFY27andwidensinFY28andbeyond.WethinkTreasuryissomewhatuncomfortablewiththerecentriseinTreasuryyields,andaimedtoopenambiguityinthedistributiontotakethebearishpressureoffTreasuryyields

·Inrecognitionofthisdynamic,weexpectTreasurytomaintainthisforwardguidanceinto2027andexpectTreasurytomaintaincurrentauctionsizesthroughAugust2027(versusFebruary2027previously).Atthatpoint,weexpectTreasurytobeginamulti-quarterseriesofincreases,focusedinthe2-to10-yearsectorofthecurve.

J.PMorgan

Treasuryannouncedincreasedbuybacksatthelongendofthenominalcurve

Attributionanalysisof30-yearTreasuryyieldchanges12/31/25-

8/21/26*

Variable

Currentvalue

YTDChg

Coeff.

Tstat

Expectedchg;bp

ntercept

9.56

11.5

1y1yOISratb;%

4.11

0.98

0.414

49.5

40

JPMUSFRI;%pts

92.6

0.1

-0.04

-5.2

0

5y5yTIPSbreakevens;%

2.07

0.02

0.284

4.6

0

FedB/SasshareofUSeconom

20.7

-0.2

-0.127

-33.0

2

Tanifdummyvariable"

0.0

-1.0

0.144

5.9

-14

Expectedchangefomala

cbors;bp

29

Actualchg:bp

45

Residualon31-Dec-25

-5

9

Residualon21-Aug-26

*Regressionfrom12/3120-12/31/25,R-squared=97.9%,SE=16.0bp

**Tariffdummyequals1between4/2/25and2/26/26,andisOforallotherdatesSource:FederalReserve,USTreasury,J.P.Morgan

StylizedbuybackscoresforTreasurybuybacksectors

Buybackoffertomax

RMSE(bp)"

Of-the-rundiscount(bp"

Tenor

Current1yz-score

Current1yz-score

Current1yz-score

Buyback

score

Nominal

coupons

1m-2y

10.00.2

1.1-1.5

-0.78-0.7

-0.6

2y-3y

222.0

0.70.8

-0.710.1

1.0

3y-5y

2.3-1.2

0.9-0.3

-0.15-0.4

-0.6

5y-7y

0.9-1.5

0.4-0.8

-0.97-1.8

-1.4

7y-10y

1.3-0.3

1.92.3

-0.702.1

1.4

0y-20y

6.6-2.6

1.00.3

-0.19-0.2

-0.8

20y-30y

1.7-1.1

0.7-0.3

0.712.5

0.4

TIPS

1y-10y

5.2-0.6

2.10.2

0.040.3

0.0

10y-30y

1.6-1.1

2.2-1.9

3.45-3.3

2.1

*RMSEfornominalTreasuryandTIPSsplinefittedcurves,bysector.

十ForTIPS,positionsin0-6Yareshownforshorter-maturitybucket,andpositions>6Yareshownforlonger-maturitybucket.

**FornominalTreasuries,definedas4x-0ldasset/currentswapspreaddifferentialforhotrunpoint.ForTIPS,definedas2x-0ld/currentIOTAdifferential(basedonz-spreadsofTIPSandthenominalcomparator).

≠TIPSbuybackbucketsadjustedfrom1y-7.5yto1y-10yand7.5y-30yto10y-30yin3Q25.Datapriorto3Q25refertotheoldbucketdefinitions

Source:J.P.Morgan

·Treasurysurprisedbyannouncingthatitwilbeincreasingthesizeofbuybackoperationsforlonger-datednominalTreasuries,fromacurentmaximumof$2bnperoperationto“atleast”$4bn.ThechangewaseffectiveSeptember9thandwillrunthroughtheremainderofthisrefundingquarter,thoughweseerisksthatthechangecouldremaininplacebeyondthatpoint

·Webelievethisannouncementwastiedtodiscomfortwiththelevelofrates,particularlygiventhehighlyunusualtimingofthisannouncement,andthefactthatneitherthemoremacrofactors(likeTreasurymarketdepth)northemoremicrofactors(likedispersionofofftherunsrelativetoafittedcurveorof-the-runvaluationscomparedwithon-the-runvaluations)thatwetrackindicatedanurgentneedtomakethischange

Movestocutthelong-endshareofissuancecanhaveapronouncedimpact,butwitha

shorthalf-lifeanddiminishingimpacteachtime

...Wehaveseenasimilarlyshorthalf-lifeinreactionstochangesinJapanlong-endissuance

UK5s/30scurveflattenedaroundDMOremitandUKbudget

announcementssinceNovember2022,butonlylastedacoupleofweeks...

DMOremit

20

—Mean

——16-Nov-22

0

-10

-15

30

10

Dayssinceevent

*12instances.sinceNovember2022.Source:J.P.Morgan;UKDMO

Dayssinceevent

5instancessince2025.Source:J.P.Morgan

·Afterthebuybackannouncement,weseeagreaterriskthatTreasurycouldotheractions,likecutstolong-endTreasuryauctionsizes(thoughthisisnotourbasecase).UKDMOhasreducedthelongendshareofitsissuancein12instancesoverthelast4years,andhistorically,thegiltcurvehasflattenedaroundtheseevents,onaverageby2bpinthe5daysaftertheevent.

However,theUKhasahistoryofbudgetaryleaksaheadoftheeventandinthe10-dayperiodaroundtherelease,the5s/30scurveflattenedby5bponaverageandthisflatteningoccurredin75%ofthe12instances

·Similarly,inJapan,weseeashorthalf-lifeintheaveragecurveandlongendyieldimpactaroundMoF'sdealerquestionnaire,typicallythefirstreadonpotentialchangestoJGBauctionsizes,whichhasbeendecliningforthelongend

J.P.Morgan

J.P.Morgan

Foreigndemandisrunningatitsslowestpacesince2021andcommercialbankdemandhaswaned,whilewehaveseenrobustbondfundinflows...

Quarterlychangeincommercialbankholdingsofnon-MBSTreasuryandagencysecurities*;$bn

Annualnetforeignpurchasesoflong-termTreasuriesbytype*;$bn

1000

■Private

■Official

800

600

400

200

0

-200

-400

-600

2017201820192020202120222023202420252026

*ThroughMarch2026

Source:TreasuryInternationalCapitalSystem

2022

3022

1Q23

2Q23

4Q23

1Q24

2Q24

3024

4Q24

1Q25

2025

3025

1026

2026

422

3Q23

4Q25

*2Q26through5/27126

Source:FederalReserve

·Weexpectmodestreservegrowthtosupportofficialdemand,whileprivateforeigndemandshouldbemoresensitiveto

valuations,carry,andtheoutlookforcapitalgains.Onthemargin,thissupportsdemandforintermediate-durationTreasuriesovertheshortend

·Forbanks,demandhasslowedsharplyasloangrowthcontinuestooutpacedepositgrowth,restrainingdemandforsecuritiesoverall.Goingforward,weexpectbankdemandforTreasuriestobedrivenmorebyassetswapeconomicsandconcentratedatthefrontend,whererisk-adjustedcarryremainsattractive

·WecontinuetoprojectreducedcorporateDBpensiondemand,asimprovedfundedstatusandsubstantialde-riskinghavereducedplans'needtoaddduration.DemandcouldcomefrompublicDBplans,thoughthiscouldbeslowtoemerge

…Giventhisdemandbackdrop,wethinkTreasuryshouldleanlessonlong-endissuance,andexpectcouponauctionsizeincreasestobeconcentratedin2-to10-yeartenors

AnnualnetissuanceofTreasuriesversuspurchasesbyinvestortypes;sbn

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026*

USTnetissuance;$bn

557

1134

1068

4301

1607

1353

2434

1974

2425

2428

Investor

ForeignInvestors

308

120

298

67

606

393

594

609

509

450

Commercialbanks

-43

87

126

328

449

9

-83

194

179

150

Pension/lnsurance**

151

57

6

13

179

-8

143

226

183

150

Brokerdealers

17

132

-47

-9

-104

85

121

130

71

100

Mutualfunds/ETFs

186

121

187

24

410

127

101

211

259

225

Moneymarketfunds

-95

189

178

1343

-651

-751

1236

725

250

400

Fed

-9

-214

60

2388

963

-594

-720

-475

-100

410

Demandgap***

41

640

262

146

-244

2091

1042

354

1075

543

*J.P.Morganestimates

**Includesprivateandstatepensionfunds,lifeandproperty/casualtyinsurancecompanies

***PositivenumbermeanssupplyexceedsestimateddemandSource:J.P.Morgan,FederalReserve

·Ifourprojectionsbecomereality,otherinvestorswillneedtoabsorb$543bninadditionalTreasurysupply.Overall,withLD-

relateddemandslowing,wethinkTreasuryshouldleanlessheavilyonlong-endissuancethanithasinthepast,whichiswhyweexpecteventualcouponauctionsizeincreasestobeconcentratedinthefrontendtointermediatesectors

J.PMorgan

Agenda

Page

1

USrates:Dryingupconversation,youwillbetheonewhocannottalk

4

2

Internationalrates:FocusbroadensfromEuroratestoglobalmacro

13

3

Currencies:Thedollarread-acrossfromUSmidterms

21

4

Commodities:Growingwithoutoil

34

5

EmergingMarkets:StayOWEMFXandMWRates,EMSovereigns&Corporate

39

6

Appendix

45

J.PMorgan

Europeanrates:FocusbroadensfromEuroratestoglobalmacro

Changeinb/myieldsince30October;

COBbyregion,bp;

5Y10Y30Y

2

o+

-2

—4—

-6

—8—

-10

SwedenNorwayAustraliaJapan

USGermany

UK

Source:J.P.Morgan.

DeliveredpolicyratechangesandJ.P.Morganforecasts(greyshadedarea)acrossDMcentralbanks;sinceJan2026;

bp

EURGBP

0.50.0-0.5

-1.5

Jan-18Jan-20Jan-22Jan-24Jan-26

Source:J.P.Morgan.

·Thisweek,ratemarketattentionremainedongeopoliticaldevelopmentsandonpersistentweaknessintechequities,givensofterearningsreleases.Centralbankmeetings(Fed,ECB,BoJ,RBNZ)andtheUKbudgetannouncementwerealsoinfocus.

·TheFed,ECBandBoJkeptpolicyratesonholdthisweekasexpected,buttheRBNZsurprisedmarketsbyholdingthepolicyrateat2.75%againstourandmarketexpectationsofa25bphike

·Afterreachingmulti-yearhighsinearlyOctober,intermediateDMyieldshaverecentlyralliedacrossmost

jurisdictions,givenlimitedevidenceofenergy-relatedimplicationsoncoreinflation/wagessofar,butgrowing

concernsthattighterfinancingconditionsmaydampengrowth.Asaresult,intermediateSOFR,ESTRandSONIAyieldshavenowcorrectedsomeoftheexcessivecheapness.

Euroarea:Intermediateyieldsremainattractiveforlong-terminvestors;maintainstrategicOWGermanyvs.USstance

J.P.Morgansovereignriskmodelresidualevolutionfor10YFrance-Germanyspread;

SinceearlyJan2010,bp

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

017

2018

2019

2020

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

80

60

30

03-Aug02-Sep02-Oct

COVID

-20

-40

Avg:

2024election-21bpannouncement

2017Pres.

Greek

crisis

election

-60

-80

40

20

Note:Forinfo,thedetailsoftheSovereignRiskIndexmethodologycanbefoundatthislink(EuroCash2H26Outlook).Source:J.P.Morgan.

1MrollingR-squaredandbetaofdailychangesof10YFrance-Germanyparratespreadregressedagainstdailychangesof

10YGermanparrate;

Past12M,%

0.8

0.6

04

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

1MbetaOAT-Bundvs.Bundyield1MR-sqrOAT-Bundvs.Bundyield

Jan26Apr26Jul26Oct26Source:J.P.Morgan.

Duration:WeremaincautiousontacticalOW10YGermanybutstressthatintermediateyieldsremainattractiveforlong-terminvestors.WestillmaintainastrategicOWGermanyvs.USstance,especiallyinintermediatesectors

Intra-EMUstrategy:Keepacautiousstanceonintra-EMU/E-SSAspreadsgivenheightenedDMratevolatilityand

geopolitical/energypriceuncertaintyamidstillOWpositioning.PoliticalnoiseriskalongsideelevatedglobalratesvolatilitykeepsinvestorscautiousonFrancedespiteattractivevaluations.TakeprofitonOW10YItalyvs.EURIGcreditastheRVhasfully

corrected.Keeplong10YSpainvs.ItalyandGermanyon50:50flyasrecentcheapeningseemsexcessiveandexpectlimitedpoliticalnoise/negativemarketimplicationsfromtheelections

Derivatives:Front-endEUROIShasincreasinglydecoupledfromenergyprices,withmarketsarebecomingsensitivetohigheryieldsandtighterfinancialconditions.Withlimitedcatalyststopushyieldsineitherdirection,weremainneutralon1Yx1YESTRataround3.20%andholdbothMar271×2callspreadandJan271×1Euriborputspread.Keep10s/30sconditionalbull

steepener.Cross-market,staylongDec26Bundcallsversus10YUST.EntertacticalDec26swapspreadnarrowersgivenexpectationsoflowervolatityon1Yx1YESTRbutkeepatightstop-lossastigherintra-EMUspreadsissupportiveofnarrowing

UK:StayreceivedDec26MPCOIS;holdtactical10s/30sgiltcurvesteepeners

MPCOISmeetingdatestepsandcumulativehikespriced(rhs);

bp

Apr27

e

25

20

15

10

5

20

-5

7/Mar27I

120

100

80

60

40

Cumulativemarket(RHS)

v

C

Source:J.P.Morgan.

Residualfromregressing2s/10sgiltcurvevs.1Yx1YSONIA,2s/10sUSTcurveandBoEAPFholdings;

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

Oct25Jan26Apr26Jul26Oct2610s/30sgilt=-0.1*1Yx1YSONIA+0.4*10s/30sUST+1.02.R-squ:79%,std.error:3bpSource:J.P.Morgan.

·WeexpectaBoEhikenextweekto4%,asbroadlypriced,withfocusonguidanceonapossibleback-to-backhikeinDecember.WecontinuetocallforapauseinDecember,giventhelackofevidenceontheenergypricepass-throughtodate.WeexpectasecondBoEhikeinFebruary,withanincreasedlikelihoodofathirdhikein2Q26.

·WecontinuetorecommendreceivingDec26MPCOISasthebarforback-to-backBoEhikesinNovemberandDecemberislowinourview.Wecontinuetothink1Yx1YSONIAatcloseto4.85%lookstoohighonafundamentalbasis,butwearecautiousoffadinggiven:1)lackofvisibilityonthemagnitudeanddurationofanyfurthertechequitysell-off;2)potentialrisksofafurther

escalationintheUS-IranconflictaroundtheUSmid-terms.

·IntheUK,Healey'sbudgetannouncementthisweekwasinlinewithbroadexpectationsashereaffirmedthegovernment'scommitmenttofiscaldisciplinewithoutanymajorimplicationsforthemedium-termoutlook.Thedeliverydidnotdriveanymaterialrepricingoffiscaltermpremiaonthe2s/10sgiltcurve,whichnowscreenstooflatvs.high-frequencydrivers

·Weholdtactical10s/30sgiltcurvesteepenersasgiventhefatnessofthecurveandasalowbetaproxylongin1Yx1YSONIA

Scandinavia:Remainneutralondurationandcurve

Source:J.P.Morgan.

NOK3MFRAlevel(%;Ihs)andchange(bp,rhs)since30Sep2026;bp

5.00

4.954.904.854.80

4

4.75—4.70

Level(%)Chg(bp)

0

-1

-2

-3

-5

-6

Source:J.P.Morgan.

·Sweden:Weselitlevalueinfadingcurrentlyexcessivemoneymarketcurvepricingatthefront-endgivenlackofvisibilityovergeopolitics/energyandgivenabroadlyresilientgrowthbackdrop.RemainneutralontheStiborswapcurve.

·Norway:weexpecta1Q27hikewithrisksofanearlierDecembermove.WeremainneutralontheNiborswapcurve

J.PMorgan

J.PMorgan

Australia/NewZealand:enter1Y-forward1s/3sAUDcurveflattener;maintainthe

Feb271Jun27RBNZOISflattener

Source:J.P.Morgan.

NZGBcurvespreads;Bp

140

120

100

80

60

40

1s/2s2s/5s2s/10s

Research,J.P.Morgan

·TheRBAandRBNZshowedcontrastingstylesthisweek:theRBAsetupanotherhikeandtheRBNZoptednottodeliveronafully-pricedtightening

·AustraliaOpena1Yforward1s/3sAUDflatteneras1s/3scurveisrelativelysteepinforwardspaceconsideringthatanevenmorerestrictivelevelofthecashrateshoulddriveinversion

·NewZealand:WemaintaintheRBNZFeb'271Jun'27OISflattenerasthedatashouldreinforcethecaseforRBNZfront-

loadingwhat'sleftofthecycle,whilepricingbeyond1Q27remainsaggressive

J.PMorgan

Japan:Hold2s/10sJGBscurvesteepenersalthoughconvictionisdecreasing

2Y5Y7Y10Y15Y20Y25Y30Y35Y40Y

Source:J.P.Morgan

Source:J.P.Morgan,BloombergFinanceL.P

·TheBoJkeptitspolicyrateunchangedat1.25%asexpected,withthefocusnowshiftingtowardanchoringunderlyinginflationat2%.TheBoJappearslikelytocontinueraisingratesatapaceofroughlyonceeverytwotothreemeetings

·Wehadclosed2s/10ssteepenersamidtherecentlyreducedduration-riskaversion,butwethinkthatoverthemedium-termsupply-demandconcernsonthe10Ysectorwillre-emerge.Weholdlongsin5YJGBs,giventheattractiverisk-rewardandimprovingcarryprofile.Ourmedium-termviewofrelativelyweaksupply-demandconditionsinthe10Ysectorremains

unchanged,andwewouldlooktore-establish10Yshortsthroughbutterflystructuresoncevolatilitysubsides

InternationalRatestraderecommendations

Euroarea

•Euroduration:WestillfindintermediateGermanyieldsattractiveforlong-terminvestors.KeepstrategicOWGermanyvs.USstance.

•Intra-EMU:tickwithourcautiousstanceonintra-EMU/€-SSA

spreadsonweakeningsentimentonFrance,elevatedDMrate

volatilityandgeopolitical/energyuncertainty.TakeprofitonOW10YItalyvs.EURIGcredit.Staylon