麦肯锡 -重塑证券服务迎接竞争与增长的新时代 Rewiring securities services for a new era of competition and growth

October2026

McKinsey

&Company

FinancialServicesPractice

Rewiringsecurities

servicesforaneweraof

competitionandgrowth

Disruptiveforces—fromreal-timesettlementtoagenticAl—arechangingthedynamicsofthesecuritiesservicesindustry.Howcanleaderscapturethe

nexthorizonofgrowth?

byAnutoshBanerjeeandStefanSchorsch

withSeverineFobeandEvitaDeCoster

Fordecades,thesecuritiesservicesindustryhasservedastheindispensablebackboneof

financialmarkets.Custodians,fundadministrators,andcentralsecuritiesdepositories(CSDs)

keeptabsontheworld’sholdings,generatingabout$76billioninannualrevenue,orroughly30percentoftotalfinancialmarketinfrastructurerevenueof$245billion.Reliable,stable,and

heavilyregulated,theindustryhasbeenslowertomodernize,onaverage,thanothersectorsinfinancialservices;morethan80percentofleadingfirmswesurveyedin2025andagainin

2026saykeepingpacewithtechadvancementsisoneoftheirbiggestchallenges.1

Yetastheindustry’sdynamicsshift,changeisnowanimperative.Today,fivedisruptiveforcesareloweringhistoricalbarriersandopeningthedoorfornewcompetitors.Theracetoreal-timesettlementisaccelerating,agenticAIisopeningupnewwaystoprovideservices,anddigital

assets,privatemarkets,andinvestors’geographicambitionsareplacingnewdemandsonproviders.Slow-movingmodernizationisgivingwaytorapid,transformativechange.

Forincumbents,thestrategicquestionishowtomovefastenoughtoovercomelegacy

architecturechallengesandmaintaintheiredge.Someprovidershavealreadymodernizedtheirarchitectureandarebuildingnimbleandadaptivefirms.Buttotakeadvantageofthe

opportunitiesthesechangesbring,firmswillneedtodomorethanjustadapt;theywillhavetofundamentallyrewiretheirorganizationsacrossstrategy,talent,operations,andtechnology.

Thisarticleexaminesthechangingindustrydynamicsandsuggestssomeprioritiesforsecuritiesservicesleadersastheirindustrytransforms.

Growthratesaredivergingastheindustryrebalances

Ourproprietaryanalysisofthesecuritiesservicesindustryforecastsgrowthofabout5percentannuallythrough2030.Thistop-linefiguremasksasignificantrebalancing.2Growthis

concentratingatlarge-scaleplatforms:globalcustodiansandmajorCSDs.FundservicesCSD

divisionsaregrowingatanannualaveragerateofbetween10and15percent,drivenbythe

expansionofalternativeassetsandpassiveinvestmentvehicles.Smaller,nonspecializedplayerswithoutclearscaleorspecializationadvantagesarefallingbehind.

Geographically,NorthAmericahasbeentheprimaryengineofrevenuegrowth(averagingabout8percentannually),whileEuropeandtheAsia–Pacificregionaregrowingmoreslowly,atabout1to2percent.

Thedisruptiveforcesshapingthefutureofsecuritiesservices

Beneaththesurface-levelstability,foundationalpressuresarebuilding.Afterdecadesof

gradualchange,fiveinterconnectedforceshaveemergedandarereshapingtheindustryatanacceleratedpace.Thesepressuresarereflectedinevolvingcustomerdemands—institutional

investorsincreasinglyexpectalways-on,data-richinteractionmodelsthatareahybridofdigitalandphysicaldelivery—andfirmsthatcannotdeliverwilllikelylosemandatestothosethatcan.

1McKinsey2025and2026SecuritiesServicesSurveysofcustodians,fundadministrators,andCSDs.The2025surveywas

conductedwithmorethan80membersoftheInternationalSecuritiesServicesAssociation,representingthemajorityofglobalassetsundercustody.The2026pollingrefreshedtheseinsights,combinedwithanalysisoftechnologyinvestmentpatterns

acrosstheindustry.

2Growthratesarebasedon2020–24CAGR;McKinseyPanoramaRevenuePoolsdata,2024;Tricumen;companyfilings.

Rewiringsecuritiesservicesforaneweraofcompetitionandgrowth2

Rewiringsecuritiesservicesforaneweraofcompetitionandgrowth3

Customerdemandsincludedelivery-versus-delivery(DVD)settlementalongsidetraditional

delivery-versus-payment(DVP)settlement,24/7servicingwindows,one-stopportalswithreal-timeconnectivity,andflexibilitytoaccessnewasset-classwrappers.3Thesenotablyinclude

activeETFs,whichhavegrownatanaverageannualrateofabout60percentoverthepastthreeyears.4

Theracetoreal-timesettlementison

Theindustryisnearingtheendofamultidecadeaccelerationofsettlementtimes.Theshifttotradeexecutionandsettlementinasingleday,knownintheindustryasT+1,isasignificant

steppingstonetowardtheultimategoalofT+0—thatis,real-time,“atomic”settlement.The

EuropeanUnion,Switzerland,andtheUnitedKingdomallplantoadoptT+1byOctober2027.Movingtoreal-timesettlementismorethanatechnologicalupgrade;itwouldfundamentallyrewritetheliquiditylogicunderpinningfinancialmarkets.

Compressedsettlementwindowswouldrequireentirelynewprefundingmodels,reshape

collateralmanagement,andobligeallmarketparticipantstorethinkhowtheysource,allocate,andrecycleliquidityacrossthesettlementchain.Theoperationalimplicationsincludeend-to-endstraight-throughprocessing,new“followthesun”operatingmodelstomanagecross-

borderfrictions,fasternet-asset-valuecalculationsandintradayreconciliationforfundadministrators,andexpandedreal-timesettlementofferingsfromCSDs.

Severalpilotsarealreadyunderway.Forexample,in2023,SIXDigitalExchangeandtheSwissNationalBank(SNB)beganapilottosettledigitalsecuritieswithwholesalecentralbankdigitalcurrency—issuedbytheSNBinrealtimeonadistributedledger—andfacilitateatomicDVP

settlement.5InIndia,themarketregulatorlaunchedaT+0settlementpilotinMarch2024forselectequitiesinthecashmarket.6Somepilotsarealreadyproducingresults.IntheUnited

States,Broadridgelaunchedaplatformin2021toexecuteandsettlerepurchasetransactions(repos)usingsmartcontractsonblockchaininfrastructure.7Sincelaunch,adoptionhas

increasedsignificantly:Theplatformprocessedabout$365billioninrepotransactionsdailyinJuly2026,upfrom$65billionin2024.8

AgenticAIemergesasaleadingindustrypriority

AIagentsareacriticalingredientintheracetoreal-timesettlementandcanhelpfirms

structurallyreducetheircosts.Unlikeprevioustechnologies,agenticAIhasthepotentialto

automatecomplex,end-to-endworkflows,offeringapathtoareal-time,always-onservicing

modelthatwaspreviouslyunattainable.Forexample,itcanminimizesettlementfailuresby

autonomouslytriagingtrademismatches,predicting“atrisk”tradesbeforemarketclose,and

draftingreal-timeresolutions.Agentscanalsohelpbridgethefundinggapsinherentinshortercyclesbycontinuouslymonitoringintradaycashbalancesandexecutingpreapprovedcollateralmovements.

PrioritydomainsforrethinkingoperationsusingagenticAIincludeclientonboarding,IT

development,andthemiddleoffice(Exhibit1).Forthemiddleoffice,agentscantackleend-to-endprocessessuchasdetectingandinvestigatinginstructionbreaks,automaticallyapplying

3InDVDsettlement,twodifferentsecuritiesareexchangedsimultaneously.InDVPsettlement,thetransferofsecuritiestakesplacesimultaneouslywiththetransferofthecashpayment.

4Morningstar;KarineKheirallah,RobertSelouan,andFedericoBurroni,“ActivelymanagedETFs:Anewchapterforglobalinvestors,”StateStreetInvestmentManagement,May12,2026.

5“SIXcollaborateswiththeSwissNationalBanktopilotwholesaleCBDCissuanceinSwitzerland,”SIX,November2,2023.

6“IntroductionofbetaversionofT+0rollingsettlementcycleonoptionalbasisinadditiontotheexistingT+1settlementcycleinequitycashmarkets,”SecuritiesandExchangeBoardofIndia,March21,2024.

7“BroadridgelaunchesDLTrepoplatformtoexecutefirstbilateralrepotradesusingsmartcontracts,”Broadridge,June14,2021.

8“Broadridge’sdistributedledgerrepoprocesses$8.0trillioninJuly,”Broadridge,August10,2026;“Broadridge’sdistributedledgerrepoprocesses$385billioninaveragedailytradevolumesinOctober,”Broadridge,November10,2025.

Rewiringsecuritiesservicesforaneweraofcompetitionandgrowth4

Exhibit1

Rewiringsecuritiesservicesforaneweraofcompetitionandgrowth5

repairs,andinformingcounterpartiesaccordingly.Weestimatebasedonexperiencewithclientsthatagentshavethepotentialtoautomateupto60percentofselectmiddle-officeactivities.Asclientsbecomeincreasinglywillingtoswitchprovidersforlowerprocessingcosts,these

productivityimprovementsbecomeallthemoreinevitable.

SurveyedfirmstellusthatagenticAIandthe“zeroops”modelstheypowerareahigh-focus

priority,secondonlytotheshifttoT+1.Yetadoptionlagsbehindambition:Themajorityoffirmswesurveyedremainattheproof-of-conceptorsingle-use-casestage,withonlyabout20

percentreportingat-scaletransformation,primarilyinITandplatformmodernization.Whilethemiddleofficeiscitedasthehighest-priorityoperationaldomain,noneofthesurveyed

institutionshaveimplementedafullmiddle-officetransformation.9HumansupervisorsofAIremainanimportantelementinanytransformation.

Theriseoftokenizationanddigitalassetsmayredefinepost-tradeinfrastructure

Afteryearsofexperimentation,digitalassetsanddistributedledgertechnology(DLT)have

reachedinstitutionalscale.Withanannualgrowthrateofmorethan75percentintokenized

assets,McKinseyresearchhasestimatedabase-casemarketofnearly$2trillionby2030.10

Mostassetclassesareexpectedtobetokenized,withdifferingscenariosforstepwiseadoption.

Forthesecuritiesservicesindustry,ashifttomoretokenizedassetsmayredefinepost-trade

infrastructurebyenablingatomicsettlementandcreatingnew,efficientvaluepoolsacross

custodyandservicing.Assettokenizationintroducesfundamentallynewoperatingmodels,suchasnewissuancerails,redesignedassetservicingmodels,DVDsettlementreplacingtraditionalDVP,andsmartcontractautomationthatcollapsesmultidayprocessesintonear-instant

execution.However,noglobalstandardhasyetemerged.Instead,multipleparallelprotocols

andchainsaredevelopingsimultaneously.Thisfragmentationrequiressecuritiesservicersto

buildhybridoperationscapableofsupportingbothon-chainandoff-chainenvironments,aswellasinteroperatingacrossdifferenton-chainecosystems.

Incumbentshavesteppeduptheirdigitaloperations.Forexample,in2020JPMorganChase

launchedablockchainanddigitalassetsbusinessunitnamedOnyx,whichhassincebeen

expandedandrebrandedasKinexysbyJ.P.Morgan.11GoldmanSachsoperatesGSDAP,a

blockchain-basedplatformthatincludesend-to-endworkflowstodigitizeandmanageassetsinrealtimeacrosstheirlifecycle.12InEurope,BNPParibasSecuritiesServicesisworkingwith

Fireblocksasits“hotwallet”connectivityinfrastructurelayerforitssettlementandcustodyofregulatedsecuritytokens.13

Theseandothermovestowardincreasinglyautomatedoperationsanddigital-asset

infrastructureraisethebarforcyberresilience.Asfirmsshiftfromhuman-executedtosystem-executedworkflows,thedependenceonsystems’accuracy,uptime,andcyberdefense

increasesmateriallybecauseofthebroaderattacksurfacesthetechnologybrings,lowertolerancefordowntime,andnewthreatvectorsintroducedbyDLTconnectivityand

autonomousAIagentsoperatingacrossthesettlementchain.

9McKinsey2025and2026SecuritiesServicesSurveys.

10“Fromripplestowaves:Thetransformationalpoweroftokenizingassets,”McKinsey,June20,2024.

11“AboutKinexys,”JPMorganChase,accessedOctober12,2026.

12“GSDAP,”GoldmanSachs,accessedOctober12,2026.

13DanielEvans,“BNPParibasSecuritiesServicesxFireblocks,”Fireblocks,July20,2022.

Rewiringsecuritiesservicesforaneweraofcompetitionandgrowth6

Theexpansionofprivatemarkets

Privatecapitalhasmademajorinroadsinfinancialmarketsinrecentyears;weexpectprivateassetstonearlydoublefromabout$16trilliontoabout$27trillionby2029,primarilyinprivatecreditandinfrastructure.14

Whilefundraisinghasslowedasinterestcoolsinsomesegments,notablyrealestateand

venturecapital,thestructuraltrendtowardalternativescontinues:Asignificantshareof

institutionalinvestorsinMcKinsey’s2026CorporateandInvestmentBankingVoiceofthe

CustomerSurvey15plantoincreaseallocations,withinfrastructure(+35percentnet),private

equity(+26percentnet),andprivatecredit(+18percentnet)leadingplannedincreases

(Exhibit2).Accesstoprivatemarketsisalsoexpectedtoincrease,althoughunevenly:Fornow,about20percentofprivatemarketassetsundermanagement(AUM)israisedfromindividuals,upfrom4percentin2020.16However,barriersrelatingtominimumthresholds,liquidity,and

investorexperienceremainsignificant.

Forsecuritiesservices,theinfrastructureopportunityliesinsmoothingthesepointsoffriction.Thelackofstandardizedsettlementservices—suchasdistribution,manualledgertrackingandtaxhandling,andpoordatatransparency—createsoperationalchallengesthatsecurities

servicesproviderscanaddresstounlocknewvalue.Multiplemarketparticipantsareactivelyexpandingtheirpresenceinprivatemarketsthroughorganicgrowthinitiativesandstrategicplatformlauncheswithpartners.ExamplesincludeBNY’sSeptember2024launchofitsAltsBridgeplatform,whichenableswealthmanagersandintermediariestoaccessthird-party

alternativeandprivatemarketfunds,17andLSEG’sFebruary2026launchofaprivatefundsplatform,whichintegratesApexGroup’sfundadministrationandservicinginfrastructure.18

Geographicdiversificationtocatertoregionalgrowthneeds

Institutionalinvestorsareactivelydiversifyingtheirgeographicexposure,drivenbygeopoliticalvolatility,tariffregimes,andthesearchforuncorrelatedgrowth.GlobalAUMisprojectedto

reachabout$197trillionby2029,butthecompositionisshifting.Asia–Pacificandemergingmarketsareoutgrowingdevelopedmarkets;weexpectAsia–PacificAUMtogrowat12.5

percentannuallythrough2029,comparedwith7.8percentforNorthAmericaand7.5percentforEurope(Exhibit3).McKinsey’sVoiceofCustomerSurveyconfirmsthisrebalancing:Net

allocationintentionsoverthenextonetotwoyearsfavorAsia(excludingChina,+45percentnet)andEurope(includingtheUnitedKingdom,+43percentnet),whileNorthAmericaseesanetoutflow(–16percent).TheMiddleEastandAfricaareattractingmoreincrementalcapitalthanGreaterChina(+19percentversus+8percentnet),partlydrivenbyUStariffexposure.

Forsecuritiesservicers,demandformulti-jurisdictionalcoverage,regionalconnectivity,and

localizedservicingcapabilitiesisintensifying.Firmsneedtobeabletofollowtheirclients’capitalwhereveritflows.19Thisgeographicrebalancingisalreadyvisibleinproviderpositioning.

14

Preqin;AlexanderEdlich,ChristopherCroke,FredrikDahlqvist,andWarrenTeichner,GlobalPrivateMarketsReport2025:

Bracedforshiftingweather,McKinsey,May20,2025.

15

2026McKinseyCorporateandInvestmentBankingVoiceoftheCustomerSurvey,whichsurveyed100corporationsand

institutionalinvestorsacrossEuropeandAsiaonfivecriticalareas(overalltrends,tradingplatformsandmarketaccess,privatecredit,sustainablefinance,andcryptocurrenciesanddigitalassets).

16

“Individuals”aredefinedashigh-net-worthindividualsinvestingprimarilythroughbanksandwealthmanagers;Preqin;McKinseyanalysis.

17

“BNYtolaunchAltsBridgeplatformbroadeninginvestoraccesstoalternativeproducts,”BNY,September16,2024.

18

“LSEGandApexGroupcollaboratetoconnectprivatefundswithLSEG’sDigitalMarketsInfrastructure,”LSEG,February10,2026.

19

AUMprojectionsarebasedonMcKinseyGlobalWealthandAssetManagementPools,2025.AllocationintentionsarebasedonMcKinsey’s2025InstitutionalandCorporateVoiceofConsumerSurvey.

Rewiringsecuritiesservicesforaneweraofcompetitionandgrowth7

Exhibit2

Forexample,from2024to2025,HSBCgrewitsAsiaassetsundercustodyby23percent,from$5.5trillionto$6.8trillion.20CitiobtainedadomesticfundcustodylicenseinChinain2020

(withfinalChinaSecuritiesRegulatoryCommissionapprovaltolaunchin2021)andlaunched

Custody+in2026,areal-timeandnear-real-timecustodysuitesupportingabusinessthat

servesmorethan100markets.21ClearstreamappointedBankofChina(HongKong)ascommondepositoryforinternationalsecuritiesfromAugust2025,extendingEurobondinfrastructure

intoAsia–Pacific.22AndDLTisemergingasageographicbridge:ProjectmBridge—backedbytheHongKongMonetaryAuthorityandthePeople’sBankofChina,amongothers—launchedapilotinmid-2024foratomiccross-borderforeign-exchangesettlement,andtheCanton

NetworkisbeingtestedforJapanesegovernmentbondreposettlement(MUFG)andJapan–Koreapaymentnetworks(SBI).23Thesearenotisolatedmoves.Theymakeuptheearly

infrastructureofamultipolarsettlementlandscape.

20“CorporateandinstitutionalbankingAsia,”HSBC,May2026.

21“CitiunveilsCustody+:Asuiteofnear-andreal-timecustodysolutionstomeetalways-onindustrydemand,”Citi,August18,2026;“CititolaunchfundcustodybusinessinChina,”Citi,July30,2021;“CitireceivesChinafundcustodylicence,”Reuters,September1,2020.

22“BankofChina(HongKong)LimitedjoinscommonEurobondsdepositorynetworkofClearstreamandEuroclear,”Clearstream,July29,2025.

23“ProjectmBridge:SuccessfulCBDCprojectforreal-valuecross-borderpaymentandforeignexchangetransactions,”Hong

KongMonetaryAuthority,October26,2022;“MUFGplansblockchaintestforJapanesegovernmentbondsettlementonCantonNetwork,”CoinGape,August13,2026;OliviaStephanie,“SBIplansJapan-KoreastablecoinnetworkonCanton,”Crypto.news,

August12,2026.

Exhibit3

Rewiringsecuritiesservicesforaneweraofcompetitionandgrowth8

Rewiringsecuritiesservicesfirmsforthenewera

Tonavigatethesedisruptions,protectmargins,andcapturenewgrowth,securitiesservices

firmsmayneedtoembarkonaholistictransformation.OuranalysisbasedonMcKinsey’s

Rewiredframeworksuggeststhatleaderscouldconsiderrewiringtheirorganizationsacrossfivekeydimensions.24Appliedtosecuritiesservices,thisframeworkmayprovideastructuredroadmapforfirmsnavigatingthesimultaneousshiftsinsettlementinfrastructure,assetclasses,andoperatingmodelsdescribedabove.TheRewiredframeworkisnotasequentialchecklist:The

organizationsthatbreakthroughmoveonallfivedimensionsinparallel,startingwithtwotothreelighthousedomainswherevalueisconcentrated.

24McKinsey’sRewiredframeworkwasdevelopedfromworkwithmore200organizationsundertakinglarge-scaledigitalandAItransformations.Formore,seeRewired:McKinsey’sPlaybookonHowLeadingCompaniesWinwithTechnologyandAI,Wiley,2026.

Rewiringsecuritiesservicesforaneweraofcompetitionandgrowth9

AutonomousAIsystemsanddigital-

assetrailsdemandastructurallyhigherbarforaccuracy,continuity,and

defensethanlegacyprocesses,makingoperationalresilienceanarchitecturalrequirementratherthanacomplianceoverlay.

Strategicroadmap.Oneapproachforleaderswouldbetobuildaninteroperable

multisettlementinfrastructure,enabledbyAI,thatwouldoperateacrosstraditionalvenuesandDLT-basednetworkssimultaneously.Todoso,theycoulddefinetwoorthreelighthouseAIusecasesdeliveringvalidatedeffortreductionsof50to90percent,buildtokenizationandcryptocustodyasaparallelrevenueline,andpositionfortheeastwardshiftininstitutionalcapitalandtherapidprojectedexpansionofprivatemarkets.

Insuchascenario,leaderswouldneedtoprioritize:Tryingtobepresentoneverychainand

everyassetclassfromdayoneisunlikelytowork.Inourexperience,organizationsthatstall

tendtobethosethatarespreadthinacrossmanyproofsofconcept.Theonesthatbreak

throughoftenpickdomainswhereclientdemandisalreadycrystallizing—suchasstandard-

settlement-instructionsprocessing,reconciliation,andnet-asset-valuecalculation—andbuilddepthbeforebreadth.

Talent.FirmswilllikelyneedtorecruitcriticalAIcapabilities,includingagenticAIarchitects,

platformengineers,AIproductmanagers,andgovernancespecialists.Equallyimportant,

operationsstaffmayneedtobeupskilledasAIsupervisorsratherthanreplaced.Thatwould

requirereframingrolesfromprocessorstotrainersandoverseersofautonomousagents.ThisdemandsdedicatedupskillingacademiesandstrategicworkforceplanningfortheshifttowarddigitalassetsandagenticAI.

Onepitfallherecouldbeunderinvestinginthe“middlelayer”—thepeoplewhotranslate

betweendatascientistsanddomainexperts.WithoutAIproductmanagersandprocess

redesignleadswhospeakbothlanguages,usecasescanstallathandover.Theorganizations

thatscalefastesttendtoinvestinupskillingearly,beforescarcityoftalentcausescostincreases.

Rewiringsecuritiesservicesforaneweraofcompetitionandgrowth10

Operating-modelagility.Hybridinfrastructurethatspanson-chainandoff-chainDVPand

DVDmayrequireneworganizationalforms.Firmswouldneedtoorganizecross-functional

squadsaroundAIusecases,combiningmachinelearningengineers,operationalexperts,and

productmanagerswithclearownershipofprofitandloss.A24/7“followthesun”servicing

modelmaybecomeinevitable.Leaderswouldneedtoimplementdecisionrightsframeworkstosetguardrailsonagenticautonomyandauditability.

Rigorousgovernancewillbeanessentialsuccessfactor.AgenticAIoperatingwithinambiguousdecisionboundariescreatesriskfasterthanitcreatesefficiency.Ouranalysissuggeststhattheleaderswhosucceeddefineescalationpathsandaudittrailsbeforethefirstagentgoeslive,notasanafterthought.

Hybrid-by-designtechnology,data,andAI.Firmswillneedtechnologythatcanconnectto

multipleDLTnetworks—suchasCanton,SDX,andEthereum-basednetworks—whilesecurelymanagingdigitalassetsandmaintainingconnectionstotraditionalfinancialinfrastructure

throughstandardssuchasSwiftandtheFIXProtocol.PlatformsshouldbeflexibleenoughtoworkwithdifferentAImodelsandcloudenvironmentswhileprovidingfullvisibilityintohowAIagentsoperateaswellasatraceablerecordoftheiractionsanddecisions.Oneapproachistomakeagenticenablementafirst-orderdesignprinciple:platformsbuilttohostautonomousAIagentsacrossoperations.Critically,technologyandcyberresiliencewouldneedto