花旗-2025年三季报世界黄金协会数据发布：金价前景取决于中东局势结果且易受比特币式波动影响

02

【价值目录】网整理：

CitiResearch

MetalMattersNov4,2026

3QWGCdatarelease-GoldpriceoutlookbinaryonMiddleEastoutcome,andsusceptibletoBitcoin-typevolatility

MaximilianLaytonAC

GlobalHead|Commodities

max.layton@

+442079864556

KennyHu,CFAACViswanathraoKintaliAC

HeadofPreciousMetalsMetalsStrategy

kenny.x.hu@viswanathrao.kintali@

+6566573873+912242775092

SeeAppendixA-1forAnalystCertification,ImportantDisclosuresandResearchAnalystAffiliations

TableofContents

1.Executivesummaryandpriceoutlook

(pg.3)

2.Goldphysicalmarketistoosmalltohandlewealthshiftsinto(oroutof)it

(pg.21)

3.Supplyanddemandresponsestostill-highgoldpriceslimitedorwilltakeyears,

leavinginvestmentdemandinthedriver'sseat

(pg.25)

4.Physicalpushbackfactorsabound–whywearebullish2027butnotexpecting

anotherrecordrally

(pg.30)

5.Sovereignandcorporatehedgingconsiderations

(pg.37)

2

02

02

Executivesummaryandpriceoutlook

Continuedweaknessinbar&coindemandvsreboundinETFandCBbuying

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Quarterlygolddemandbreakdownbysector($Bn)

Q2

Q3

Q4

12

22

32

42

Q12

Q2

Q2

Q3

Q4.

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1.

26Q2

GZ

6L.

6L.

20

20

20

1

3

23

4

24

24

24

25

25

25

26

,LO

ZO

LO

—Jewelrydemand(gross)——Technologydemand(gross)

Bar&coindemand(net)—ETFdemand(net)

——CB&otherinstdemand(net)Goldprice(rhs)

26Q3.

5,000

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

Source:CitiResearch,Bloomberg,WGC4

Source:CitiResearch,Bloomberg,WGC5

Estimatedglobalgrossspendingongoldshrankfrom～$1.15trto～$0.8tr

Grossspendingongold(annualized)shranktoaround$820bnin3Q'26,fromaround$1.15trin1Q'26and$870bnin2Q'26.Barand

coininvestmentcontinuedtodecline,whilegoldETFssawstronginflowsparticularlyfollowingtheScottBessentannouncementin

Augustwhichreignitedthedebasementtrade.Centralbankbuyingstrengthenedfurther,ledbyChinaandPoland.Globalspendingon

goldisstillhighbyhistoricalstandards,astheworldnormallyspent$250-450bnongoldperannumpre-2025.

1,200

1,100

1,000

900

Grossindustrialdemand,value($1Q26dollars),annualised

Grossjewellerydemandvalue($1Q26dolars),annualised

GrossOTC/Otherdemand-estimated,alue($1Q26dolars),annualised

ETFdemand,alue($1Q26dolars),annualised

Grossretailbarandcoindemand-estimated,value(S1Q26dollars),annualised

Centralbankpurchases,value($1Q26dolars),annualised—Grossdemand,value($1Q26dolars),annualised

3Qdemandvaluedattoday'sspot

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

0

Source:CitiResearch,Bloomberg,WGC6

2,000

1,900

1,800

1,700

1,600

1,500

1,400

1,300

1,200

1,100

1,000

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

Goldphysical'deficit'shrankfurtherin3Qonweakinvestmentdemand

Thegoldphysical'deficit’(callon

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2010

—Grosssupply

—Grossdemand-estimated

—Goldsupplyanddemandbalance(callonbarandcoinstockholders)

-100

-200

-300

-400

-500

-600

stockholders)shranktoa3-yearlowin3Q'26basedonourproprietarymodeling

Demandweaknesswasmainlydrivenby

investmentdemand,asjewelrydemandand

201

202

2013

2014

2016

2019

2020

2021

2023

2024

2025

2026

2010

centralbankbuyingstayedresilient

Grossgoldsupplyadvancedonstrong

mineoutputasminermarginsremain

2011

2012

2013

014

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2023

2024

2025

2026

SLOZ

historicallyelevated

Grossindustrialdemand

Grossjewellerydemand

■Centralbankpurchases

■Grossinvestmentdemand(bar&coin,ETF,OTC/Other)-estimated

1,500

1,400

1,300

1,200

1,100

1,000

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

■ETFsales

■Centralbanksales

Scrapsupply-jewelleryandindustrial

■Minesupply

1,900

1,800

1,700

1,600

1,500

1,400

1,300

1,200

1,100

1,000

900

700

500

400

1,800

1,700

1,600

300

200

100

800

ThegoldpriceoutlookisbinaryanddependentontheMiddleEa

tpswlu

to:/u/wc.vmeliest

■Inourbasecasescenario(60%indicativeprobability),weseegoldashavingsubstantialupsidepotentialiftheSoH

reopensandtheYemen/Saudiconflictde-escalates(weexpectthisbyyear-end),witha0-3mpointpricetargetof

$4,500/ozanda6-12mtargetof$5,000/oz.MuchloweroilpricescouldseetheFedshiftfromhikingtocuttingrates,drivingupinvestmentdemandforgoldandre-ignitingamomentumbullmarketgloballyunderpinnedbymultiple

structurallybullishdynamics.Further,loweroilpricescouldsupportEMbuyingbyincreasingpurchasingpower.

■Inourbullcasescenario(10%indicativeprobability),weassumeaswiftUS-IrandealandmuchloweroilpricesleadtotheFedquicklyturningdovish,resultinginamuchweakerdollar,broadercross-assetrisk-on,andthematerializationofa

substantialglobalmomentumtradeinbothpaperandphysicalgoldmarkets.

■Inourbearcasescenario(30%indicativeprobability),weseelimiteddownsideinpricesfromhere,downto$3,500/oz.ThisscenarioenvisagesacontinuedSoHimpasseandSaudi/Yemenconflictcontinuingtoimpactenergysupply,driving

persistentabovetargetinflation,ratehikes,andweakerglobalandEMgoldinvestmentdemand.

CitiResearchgoldpriceforecastsandbull/bearscenarios

PreciousMetalsUnit*

0-3mthptprice

6-12mthptprice

1Q262Q263Q264Q26f2026f1Q27f2Q27f3Q27f4Q27f2027f

GoldNEW$/oz450050004865451042634200446044004600480050004700

Gold(OLD)480050004865451042634600456050005000500050005000

PreciousMetals

ScenarioWeight

Unit

0-3mthptprice

6-12mth

ptprice

1Q26

2Q26

3Q26

4Q26f

2026f

1Q27f

2Q27f

3Q27f

4Q27f

2027f

Gold(Bull)

Gold(Base)

Gold(Bear)

10%

60%

30%

$/oz

$/oz

$/oz

4500

5000

4865

4865

4865

4510

4510

4510

4263

4700

4200

3700

4690

4460

4360

5000

4400

3500

5250

4600

3500

5500

4800

3500

5750

5000

3500

5375

4700

3500

02

7

Source:CitiResearch,Bloomberg

Source:CitiResearch,Bloomberg,WoodMackenzie8

SignificantupsideonpotentialSoHreopeningvsrelativelylimiteddownside

CitiResearchgoldpriceforecastsandbull/bearscenarios

$/oz

7,000

6,000

5,000

——Bull(10%)

——Base(60%)

——Bear(30%)

C3MiningCost(90%ile)LBMAForwards

4,000

3,000

2,000

1Q00

1Q01

1Q02

1Q03

1Q04

1Q05

1Q09

1Q08

1Q06

1Q10

1Q15

1Q20

1Q21

1023

1Q24

10Q25

1Q26

1Q27

1Q28f

6LOL

1Q29f

1Q30f

1,000

2-yrfwdFedFundsOISrateswere130bplessthantodaybeforetheconflictintheME(andposttheJan30thnominationofKevinWarsh)

4.6%4.4%4.2%4.0%3.8%3.6%3.4%3.2%

3.0%

Mar-26Jul-26Nov-26Mar-27Jul-27Nov-27Mar-28Jul-28Nov-28

□-USDOISCurve(asofFeb27,2026)--USDOISCurve(live)

Source:CitiResearch,EnergyAspects9

WeexpectSoHtoeventuallyreopenwithcurrentinfraintact..path&timinguncertain

■WeexpecttheSoHtoeventuallyre-open.Thepathto,andtimingof,suchanoutcomehoweverishighlyuncertain.Our

basecaseisthatanynumberofeconomic,military(potentialreescalationtodeescalation)andpoliticaldevelopmentsonbothsides(and/orpotentialleadershipchanges)couldresultintheSoHflowsnormalisingduringthe4Q’26,inwhich

caseBrentoilmovesdownto$65-70/bblfor2027.ThisreflectsourassessmentthattheprobabilitiesofthedifferentpathstoSoHnormalisingarenorthofanindicative70%(thisincludeschanceofaquickdealof10%).Havingsaidthis,weassignarelativelyhighprobabilitytotheoilbullcase/goldbearcasescenario(around30%indicativeprobability),namelythatSoHflows(particularlyoilproductflows)remainimpactedwellinto2027,owingtothepotentialforsustainedUS(economicandpolitical)andIranian(political)resilience.

■Weillustratemultiplepotentialdevelopments/catalystsandpathsthatcanleadtoaSoHreopeninginthetablebelow.

MultiplepotentialpathstoSoHre-opening

Pressurepoints/catalystsforre-openingHowitpotentiallyleadstoSoHre-opening

Extremelyhighdieselprices,broadeningdieselshortagesglobally

MaycontributetoPresidentTrumpdealingwithlran,includingdometicpressurefrom$6.5/gallondiesel,andinternationalpressurefromallies

Equitymarketsweakenonglobalgrowthfearsfromsustainedproductsshortages

MaycontibutetoPresidentTrumpdealingwithlran

MidleEastex-Iraneconomicweakness(fewoilproducersmakingmoney/economiesdeeplyimpacted)

RegionpressuresUStodealand/orcomesupwithitsowndealandpressuresUStoaccept

Chinaexportscouldfalsharply(astheircustomerssuferfromhighenergyprices),oilimportscostmore

Emergingmarketsgrowthweakening(see,Pakistancurfewsonoilconsumption,weakeninginlIndianeconomy)

Chinamaypressurelran(witrade)andUS(viamagnets?)todeal/brokeradeal,asexpotsareChinasmainGDPgrowthengine,andexportsareEMheavyMoreaffectedregionalplayerslobbyingfordeal

Fearofre-escalationresultinginmutualenergyandinfradestruction

ChinamaypressurelranandUStodeal/brokeradealastheyare5-8timesmoreexposedtoMEex-Iranthaniran

TurkeyandAzerbaijanmigrationfears

Bondmarkets-Inflationhigher/rateshigher/govtdebtservicehigher

MoreaffectedregionalplayersobbyingfordealMaycontributetoPresidentTrumpdealingwithlran

USeventuallygainseffectivemilitarydominanceofSoH(viadefense/degredationoflransattackmechanisms)

Allowsflowstonormalise(especiallyproducts)

ChangesinthemainplayersHowitpotentiallyleadstoSoHre-opening

ChangeofcompositionoflranSNSCChangeofUSPresident

Changeoflranianregime

Balanceofpowershiftstowardsdoves,leadstodeal

NextPresidentdeals/endswar

Balanceofpowershiftstowardsdoves,leadstodeal

Structuraldemanddriversremainintactforthelong-termgoldb

ht:wwelst

m//waaklue

Chinaimbalances,US-Chinadivideandgeopoliticalfragmentation

China’sexcesssavingsandcapitalcontrolsleadtotrappedcapitalwithlimitedplacestogowhentheoutlookforpropertyandequitypricesisnotparticularlyrosy;

China’shighandrisingtradesurplus(~$1tr)hastogosomewhereandappearstobeincreasinglymakingitswayintogold,owingtocapitaloutflowcontrolsandowingtothepotentialforUSsanctions;

China’scentralbankmaywanttomatchorsurpasstheUSongoldreservelevels;

ManycountriesareconcernedaboutbeingsanctionedbytheUS(potentiallyfortradingwithChina,Russia,orIran),sotheyarealsodiversifyingmoreawayfromthedollar.

USdebtanddebasementrisks

UShashighandrisingdebtlevels,leadingtomarketconcernsaboutdebasementand/orrecession,drivingincreasedallocationtogoldasitcan'tbeprinted,orasa‘flighttosafety’asset;

Debasementcancomethrougheithermonetaryorfiscalpolicy.ThepotentialfortheUSTreasurytobuybondstosupportTreasurymarketfunctioning,whichcouldweighonthedollar,remains.Outrightmonetarydebasementlooksmuchless

likelyunderFedChairWarsh,thoughitispossibleWarshandthenewcommitteemightloosenthe2%inflationtargettoanAustralia-like2-3%rangeoverthecourseofthebusinesscycle,whichwethinkcanbeaverybullishcatalystforgoldduring1Q’27.

AI-relatedconcerns

BroaderadoptionofAIcreatesjobmarketuncertainty,supportinghouseholdhedgingdemandforgold;

ElevatedAIvaluationalsoleadstoequitybubbleconcerns,potentiallysupportingportfoliohedgingdemandforgold.

02

10

Source:CitiResearch

Source:CitiResearch,Bloomberg11

Anenergyshockrelatedsell-offshouldbetemporaryandeventuallybuilish

GoldpricessawstrongnegativecorrelationtooilpricesinthefirsttwomonthsoftheUS-Iranwarandinthepasttwomonthsamidthe

latestMEreescalation.Thetypicalpatternwasmilitaryescalation=>higheroil=>inflationarypressureontheFedtostayhawkish=>

strongUS$&highrealrates=>weakergold,andviceversa.Abroaderescalationaffectingenergyinfrastructurecouldleadtoanotherwave

ofcross-assetdegrossingwhichcouldalsohitgoldprices.Despitetheinitialimpact,thisworst-caseMEscenariowouldlikelyleadtoa

flighttosafetyandanincreasedallocationtogoldandthusshouldeventuallybebullishgold,particularlyonarelativebasisagainstbonds

andequities.

Abroaderescalationaffectingenergyinfrastructure

couldseeoilpricespikingagainandgoldsufferingfrom

degrossing

Goldprice($/oz)-Brentcrude(inverse,rhs)

Thatsaid,inthisscenarioofextremereescalationlikely

entailingmuchhigherenergypricesforlonger,marketfocus

willeventuallyshiftfrominflationtostagflation,benefiting

50

goldinapotentialreplayofthepriorenergycrises

900Gold

800——Silver(rhs)700

$/o2

zo/$

600

500

20

400

300

10

5

200

100

Jan-81

Jan-78Jul-78Jan-79Jul-79Jan-80Jul-80

Source:CitiResearch,Bloomberg12

Anequitybearmarkettypicallyseesgolddeclinefirstthenrecover

DotcomGFCCOVIDLiberationDay

1600

1500

1400

1300

1200

1100

1000

900

800

3201600

1500

10503500

10003400

3300

3450

3400

3350

18006000

5900

310

1400

3001300

2901200

1100

280.1000

270900

800

9503200

9003100

8503000

2900

17505800

3300

3250

3200

3150

3100

3050

3000

2950

2900

2850

2800

17005700

5600

16505500

800

2800

7502700

7002600

6502500

1600'5400

5300

15505200

2400

6002300

5100

260

700

15005000

Jan-20

Feb-20

Mar-20

Jun-20

250600

14504900

Jan-00

Apr-00

Jul-00

Oct-00

Jan-01

pr-01

ct-01

Jun-07

Sep-07

Dec-07

Mar-08

Jun-08

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Apr-20

May-20

May-25

Mar-25Apr-25

Gold

—S&P500

S&P500

—S&P500

Jul-01

Gold

Source:CitiResearch,Bloomberg13

CitiResearchCommoditiesPriceForecasts

PriceTargets

AnnualForecasts

LTPrice

Spot'

0-3M%chgvsspot6-12M%chgvsspot

Q12026Q22026Q32026EQ42026E

20252026E2027E

$2025

Energy

CEBrentUSD/bbl

NYMEXWTIUSD/bbl

HenryHubNaturalGasUSD/MMBtu

JKMLNGUSD/MMBtu

TFNaturalGasUSD/MMBtu

EUACarbonEUR/t

106

98

29

32.8

34.1

91

75

71

2.8

19.2

18.7

85.0

-30%

-27%

-5%

70

66

2.5

14.1

13.6

-34%

-32%

-15%

78979185739386793.52.82.93.313.217.621.019.6

13.715.620.419.1N/AN/AN/AN/A

68

65

3.6

12.4

12.0

N/A

88

83

3.1

17.9

172

78

66

62

2.8

14.6

14.0

90

70

67

3.9

6.0

5.0

N/A

-42%

-45%

-57%

-60%

-6%

90.0-1%

PreciousMetals

Gold

Siver

Platinum

Paladium

USD/tozUSD/t.o2USD/tozUSD/toz

3945

50.8

1451

972

4500

70.0

1700

1200

14%

5000

90.0

2000

1500

27%

77%

38%

54%

4,8654,5104,2634,200

83773.162.860.022021,9161,7261,600

1.7041,4091,3061,100

3,443

4,460

4,700

40.1

70.0

73.0

1,286

1,860

1,850

1,154

1,380

1,350

3,60035.01,800

1,400

38%

17%

23%

IndustrialandOtherMetals

LMECopperUSD/MT

LMEAluminumUSD/MT

LMELeadUSD/MT

LMEZineUSD/MT

LMENickelUSD/MT

CMELithiumHydroxideUSD/MTUraniumUSD/b

14252

3117

1890

3885

15126

12300

92

14500

3000

2000

3700

16500

12000

100

2%

-4%

6%

-5%

14500

3000

1900

3800

17000

13000

110

2%

-4%

12,818

3,195

1,930

3235

17,325

18,200

86

13,317

3,565

1,960

3,457

18,080

20,968

86

14,104

3,229

1,856

3,829

16,564

18,418

88

14,500

3,000

1,950

3,700

16,500

13,000

100

9,960

2,628

1,959

2,878

15,179

9,400

73

13,7003.250

1,920

3,550

17,100

17,645

90

14,500

3,000

1,875

3,700

17,000

12,250

131

11,000

3,000

2,000

2,700

17,000

20,000

63

1%

-2%

9%

12%

-2%

6%

8%

19%

BulkCommodities

IronOre(TSI)USD/MT

ThermalCoal(Newe6K)USD/MT

CokingCoal(AusPHCC)USD/MT

91

150

263

100

140

250

10%

90-1%

10410697100120137138140

235238248250

10210293107134120188243225

85

100

200

-7%

-5%

115

220

-23%

-16%

Agriculture

CBOTCornUSd/bu

CBOTSoybeansUSd/bu

CBOTWheatUSd/bu

ICESugarUSd/b

ICECoffeeUSd/b

ICECocoaUSD/MT

449

1223

605

19.1

293

5467

525

1350

700

19.0

250

5750

17%

575

1400

750

28%

460

1150

550

147

317

4500

443

1162

609

14.3

283

3860

474

1226

679

16.4

325

5750

510

1300

700

19.0

275

6000

450

1,052

531

17.1

371

8,182

472

1210

635

16.1

300

5,028

550

1,38173820.8225

6.375

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

10%

16%

14%

24%

0%22.0

15%

-15%

225

6500

-23%

5%

19%

"Spotasof11/02/2026

Source:CitiResearch,Bloomberg14

CitiResearchCommoditiesPriceForecasts-ChangessinceSep25,2026

Price

0-3M

Targets6-12M

Q12026

QuarterlyForecastQ22026Q32026

Q42026E

AnnualForecasts

20252026E2027E

Energy

ICEBrentUSD/bbl

0

0

0

00

0

000

NYMEXWTIUSD/bbl

0

0

0

00

0

000

HenryHubNaturalGasUSD/MMBtu

0

0

0

00

0

000

JKMLNGUSD/MMBtu

0

0

0

00

0

000

TTFNaturalGasUSD/MMBtu

0

0

0

00

0

000

PreciousMetals

0

0

0

000

GoldUSD/t.oz

-300

0

0

00

-400

0-100-300

SilverUSD/t.oz

-5

0

0

00

-12

0-3-7

PlatinumUSD/t.oz

-250

-100

0

00

-300

0-75-150

PalladiumUSD/t.oz

-250

-50

0

00

-300

0-75-150

IndustrialandOtherMetals

0

0

0

00

0

00

LMECopperUSD/MT

-500

0

0

00

0

000

LMEAluminumUSD/MT

-300

0

0

00

-300

0-500

LMELeadUSD/MT

0

0

0

00

0

000

LMEZincUSD/MT

-300

0

0

00

-300

0-100-50

LMENickelUSD/MT

-500

0

0

00

-500

0-1500

CMELithiumHydroxideUSD/MT

-5000

-3000

0

00

-4500

0-1145-5125

UraniumUSD/b

0

0

0

00

0

000

BulkCommodities

0

0

0

0

0

000

IronOre(TSI)USD/MT

0

0

0

00

0

000

ThermalCoal(Newc6K)USD/MT

0

0

0

00

0

000

CokingCoal(AusPHCC)USD/MT

0

0

0

00

0

000

Agriculture

0

0

0

0

0

000

CBOTCornUSd/bu

-50

-25

0

00

-40

0-10-38

CBOTSoybeansUSd/bu

0

-50

0

00

-25

0-6-13

CBOTWheatUSd/bu

-50

-50

0

00

-25

0-6-37

ICESugarUSd/b

0

0

0

00

0

000

ICECoffeeUSd/Ib

0

0

0

00

0

000

ICECocoaUSD/MT

0

0

0

00

0

000

GlobalgoldETFssawstronginflowsafterthe

Bessentsurprise

in

hts:/w.uelist

Atpug/watl

ETFflowsbreakdownbymonth/country

Nov-25Dec-25Jan-26Feb-26Mar-26Apr-26May-26Jun-26Jul-26Aug-26Sep-26Oct-26Trailing12m

Australia0.0%0.0%0.2%0.2%0.2%-0.1%0.2%-0.2%0.1%0.2%0.1%0.2%1.0%

Brazil0.1%0.0%0.2%0.0%-0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.5%-0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.5%

Canada-0.1%0.1%0.4%0.2%-0.2%0.0%0.0%-0.5%0.3%-0.7%0.2%0.1%-0.1%

China6.0%1.2%13.1%2.0%3.1%0.7%-2.1%-5.8%1.7%3.6%3.6%2.5%29.6%

France0.6%0.9%-0.5%0.5%-0.6%0.5%-0.2%-1.1%1.0%3.9%1.3%0.4%6.6%

Germany-0.2%-0.4%0.1%-1.5%-1.9%0.5%0.6%-0.9%0.2%1.5%0.8%0.6%-0.2%

HongKong0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

India0.2%0.1%0.5%0.0%6.8%0.1%0.7%1.1%0.3%0.2%3.9%-1.2%12.6%

Japan1.2%1.0%1.0%1.7%-0.3%0.4%-0.2%-1.2%-0.7%0.4%0.1%0.5%3.8%

Netherlands0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

SaudiArabia0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%

SouthAfrica0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

SouthKorea0.9%0.5%1.0%0.5%0.0%-0.1%-0.1%-0.4%-0.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%2.5%

Switzerland-0.1%-0.3%0.8%-0.5%0.0%0.6%-1.4%-0.5%0.3%0.6%0.2%0.3%0.1%

Thailand0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

UnitedKingdom2.1%-0.1%3.8%-5.4%-1.0%5.4%1.4%1.5%-0.1%10.5%6.0%3.0%27.3% UnitedStates3.6%16.0%14.8%11.3%-36.2%2.6%-1.6%-14.9%-1.9%16.1%8.7%-1.4%17.2% Global14.4%19.1%35.6%9.0%-30.2%10.8%-2.7%-23.5%1.0%36.4%25.0%5.0%

Netinflows(t)35.9347.6388.6022.47-75.2726.81-6.65-58.502.5690.8262.2712.50249.17

02

15

Source:CitiResearch,BOLDreport

Source:CitiResearch,Bloomberg16

PaperpositioningweakenedwithpriceswhileETFholdingsremainresilient

PapergoldspeculativepositioninghasclearedoutonbothComexand

SHFEamidthelatestgoldselloff,implyingplentyofdrypowderif

positivecatalystskickin(e.g.MEdeescalationandlesshawkishFed)

$/oz

5500

5000

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

2026

COMEXmanagedmoneynetlength—SHFEfuturesfirmnetOl—Goldprice(rhs)

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

2025

2024

GlobalETFgoldholdingshavebeenveryresilientdespitethe

weakpriceaction,suggestingthesummerbuyingislikely

linkedtostructuralallocation(e.g.debasementhedge)

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

1500

2023202420252026

5500

5000

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

Ex-ChinagoldETFholdings(tonne)ChinagoldETFholdings(tonne)—Goldprice(hs)

Source:CitiResearch,Bloomberg,LBMA17

During2025/early2026goldsawverylargepaper,OTC,andphysicalflows

Valueofgoldpaper,OTCnetclearing,andphysicals/dvolumes($bn)

5005.0

4504.5

400