复杂生态系统中的因果关系检测

DetectingCausalityinComplexEcosystems

复杂生态系统中的因果关系检测复杂生态系统中的因果关系检测基础信息

GeorgeSugihara理论生物学家论文背景Whatiscausality?WhyStudycausality?Correlationandcausality论文背景以往的进展格兰杰因果检验（Grangercausalitytest）基于因果图进行因果推论压缩感知网络重构方法成功狩猎长毛象的已知影响因素Applyingcompressedsensingtogenome-wideassociationstudies

[2014]ShashaankVattikuti,JamesJLee,ChristopherCChang,StephenDHHsu,correspondin,CarsonCChowcorrespondingReconstructingpropagationnetworkswithnaturaldiversityandidentifyinghiddensources

[2014]ZhesiShen,Wen-XuWang,YingFan,ZengruDi,Ying-ChengLai过去的不足Grangercausalitytest：

nonseparablesystems、weaklycoupledvariablesCausalinferencebasedonacausalmap:causalityofcomplexsysteminreality文章与GC关系OurapproachisnotincompetitionwiththemanyeffectivemethodsthatuseGC;rather,itisspecificallyaimedataclassofsystemnotcoveredbyGC文章与GC关系VARSDCMI解决的科学问题Solved:(i)addressnonseparablesystems(ii)identifyweaklycoupledvariables(iii)distinguishinteractionsamongspeciesfromtheeffectsofshareddrivingvariables.CCM（convergentcrossmapping）背景CCM（convergentcrossmapping）背景M

x(t)m(t)

MCCM（convergentcrossmapping）算法

YXCCMalgorithmsteps:CCM（convergentcrossmapping）算法

YX

YXCCM（convergentcrossmapping）Eg:

CanonicalLorenzsystemMx和My分别是x和y在流形M上的映射因果关系的方向和类型因果关系可以分为三类：互为因果，单向因果与共同原因L=300因果关系的方向和类型实验结果Bidirectionalcausationinanexperimentalpredator-preysystemDidinium(predator)andParamecium(prey)/tsdldata/data/veilleux.dat

L=400andE=2实验结果Pacificsardine(Sardinopssagax)landings,northernanchovy(Engraulismordax)landings,and