旅游经济学-9(修改)

1、Chapter 9 tourism investment 旅游投资,1.principles of investment投资原理,Investment is defined by economists as the allocation of resources to fixed capital formation: that is, to enable further production to take place. In macroeconomic terms, investment is that part of an economys production which is not

2、consumed, and is financed by the share of income which is not spent on consumption. In microeconomic terms, investment relates to the allocation by an enterprise of whatever resources are needed as productive assets.,投资的概念:,投资是投资主体为获取预期效益投入各种经济要素从而形成资产的有意识的经济活动。,There is a need for investment in thr

3、ee areas:投资领域,(1)new fixed assets, such as buildings, plant, equipment and fixtures 新增固定资产，如建筑物、工厂、设备和固定装置； (2)refurbishment or replacement of fixed assets which have reached the end of their useful life in current form 重置固定资产，这些固定资产已经达到了它的使用寿命； (3)working capital, to provide a fund from which to pa

4、y recurrent costs of production 经营资本，提供生产流动资金。,The principal factor determining the amount of new investment which takes place is the profitability which can be gained. This is the difference between the net revenue or yield which can be expected from the investment, and the cost of capital employed

5、. Net revenue consists, in commercial enterprises, of expected sales less expected costs, so is dependent in tourism on expectations of tourist numbers, their patterns of demand and expenditure, and some assumptions of what will happen to costs of goods and services required. In a non commercial ven

6、ture net revenue may include valuations of expected social benefits and costs of an investment project. The cost of capital is the average rate of interest needed.,Capital may come from several sources: 资本的来源有 (1) internal finance: related profits or surpluses; provision for depreciation; provision

7、for taxation 内部融资：企业自己留存的收益或者剩余、折旧和税收 (2) external finance: equity ( and investment grants); long-term loan capital; short term finance ( bank credit, hire purchase, trade credit and so on) 外部融资：股权（和投资补贴）；长期贷款；短期融资（银行信用、分期付款购买、贸易信贷等等）,Whilst borrowed finance carries a direct rate of interest, equity

8、 requires dividends in line with the risk class for the type of investment proposed, and on internal finance there is an opportunity cost of capital which could otherwise be employed elsewhere. 机会成本：又称择一成本，它是指在同时具有多个投资方案，将资金投入到其中一个方案时而放弃其它方案可能丧失的收益。,2.投资决策,投资决策的概念： 投资决策是指从多个为达到同一目标而可以相互替代的行动方案中选择最优方

9、案的过程。,投资决策的分类,确定型：决策的条件和因素均处于确定情况下的决策 风险型：也叫统计型决策或随机型决策 非确定型：是指决策的条件和因素处于完全不确定情况下的决策,Modern theory suggests, however, that investment decisions may be made within an elastic time frame. That elastic time frame incorporates a period of accounting for uncertainty. At the beginning of the period, the i

10、nvestment may appear profitable, but may be subject to a great number of risks.,Over time, risky unknown valuesof costs or price levels, saybecome known values, and the level of profitability becomes more certain. If a business decides to go ahead with its investment earlier rather than later, it re

11、quires a higher predicted level of profitability to compensate for the uncertainties involved.,3.investment in travel and tourism 旅游投资,旅游投资的概念 旅游投资就是指在一定时期内，旅游目的地政府或旅游企业根据旅游市场需求把一定数量的资金投入某一旅游项目的建设，获取比投入资金数量更多的产出，以促进旅游业的发展。,旅游投资决策是为达到一定的旅游投资目标，面对有关旅游投资项目在资金投入上的多个方案比较中，选择和确定一个最优方案的过程。,3.1 investment d

12、ecision in travel and tourism旅游投资决策,旅游投资决策方案的类型,（1）为获取包括经济效益和社会综合效益的旅游投资决策方案。 （2）为获取特定的经济或非经济效果的旅游投资决策方案。 （3）为获取经济和财务收益的旅游投资决策方案。,3.2 special considerations in tourism investment旅游投资要特别考虑,many investment projects are designed to provide joint use, between tourists and other consumers, of products th

13、at result. In destination cities, for example, but may also serve local commuter and other resident travel needs. Any investment in new equipment will then yield joint cash flows and returns from both sets of consumers. 投资项目应同时满足游客和其他消费者的需求 tourism provides an opportunity for many short term project

14、s with quick payback periods. Because tourists travel to the production plant, consume mostly services, and frequently demand new, location non specific attractions, it is possible to develop projects which offer very quick returns. 投资时应考虑一些短期投资项目,where producers invest in tourism property, they may

15、 take into consideration future substitute uses of that property, which increase the end value of the assets. A new city centre hotel tower with an income producing life, in tourism use, of x years could then perhaps have a further useful life if converted to offices or apartments.投资前要先考虑资产未来的替代用途 i

16、n similar fashion, transportation equipment purchased as travel and tourism assets can be used in other sectors. Major bus operators in some countries purchase new vehicles for tourist excursion use, transfer them after some time to regular bus line operation, and finally commission them for school

17、transport or similar use. Within tourism, vehicles may be easily switchable.购买用作旅游资产的交通设备必须可用于其他部门。,many destination based ventures are mixed use ventures involving some investment for tourism purposes and some for non tourism reasons.许多企业不仅从事旅游业还从事其他产业 despite the existence of some projectseventswh

18、ich provide a fast payback, much investment in travel and tourism plant depends on a long-term stream of returns for its viabilitythat is, investments are multi-point output or continuous output ventures. 企业的收益应更多依赖于投资的长期收益,4.investment in tourism events,旅游事件 的分类,节庆型,博览型,商务型,体育型,特殊事件型,4.investment i

19、n tourism events,Investment in events of fixed duration is related to different factors from investment in permanent tourism plant. Some events need mostly working capital only, using otherwise fixed facilities, such as major sporting events and dance festivals. Others require more significant fixed

20、 capital formation, but still have a short payback periodsuch as biennial expositions.,4.investment in tourism events,Although it may take some time to recover land costs from site redevelopment after expositions such as Vancouver in 1986 and Brisbane in 1988, the major yields come from tourism duri

21、ng the opening time of the eventwhich may only be some six months. Such tourism investment projects are therefore very attractive to entrepreneurs who appraise on the basis of fast payback, compared with longer-term investment in, say, natural resources or manufacturingespecially where an economys l

22、ong-term future is adjudged risky.,Many large hallmark or mega events require both public and private investment. Whilst the payback for many commercial operators may come from revenues earned during the life of the event itself, investment in publicand many privatefacilities may only be warranted i

23、f those facilities have a complementary long-term use after the event. For example, the total public and private investment necessary to stage the Olympic Games may nowadays exceed US$5 billion, of which only a modest percentage will be recoupled during the three-week Games period.,Hot-dog-stand ope

24、rators and souvenir sellers recouped their investment in inventory, fittings and equipment within the three weeks, but investment in sports venues, hotels, transport and communications infrastructure and so on must inevitably rely on long-term post-Games revenues. Overestimation of these revenues ha

25、s left hoteliers and taxpayers with long-term losses in destinations such as Seoul and Barcelona ( the total value of investment linked to the 1992 Olympics in Barcelona was US$6.7 billion). It is party the economic scale, as well as the social scale, of such events that causes the need for them to

26、be integrated into general public policy and planning.,5.feasibility studies旅游项目的可行性分析,可行性研究的概念 是在投资项目建设之前，由开发者、投资者、经营者委托可行性研究单位或人员，对投资项目是否可行所进行的一系列分析性研究。,5.1可行性研究的必要性,（1）可行性研究是旅游项目投资必不可少的工作 （2）可行性研究是评估旅游项目的重要依据 （3）可行性研究为筹集资金提供重要的参考依据,5.2可行性研究的基本原则,（1）根据项目的具体要求进行研究 （2）提供充分论据供决策者参考 （3）正确使用定量和定性分析相结合的

27、方法 （4）实事求是地预测项目效益,5.3可行性研究的内容,（1）进行市场需求调查 （2）市场区域特点和选址方案 （3）项目工程方案研究 （4）原材料、燃料、动力供应 （5）劳动力的需求和供应 （6）投资额及资金筹措 （7）效益评价,5.4可行性研究的种类,（1）投资机会研究 投资机会研究，是指在一个确定的地区或部门内，在利用现有资源的基础上所进行的寻找最有利的投资机会的研究。 （2）初步可行性研究 初步可行性研究是在投资机会研究的基础上，对拟议的旅游投资项目的可行性所进行的进一步研究。 （3）最终可行性研究 最终可行性研究即在上级主管部门批准立项后对旅游投资项目所进行的技术经济论证。,6.旅游投资风险分析,投资风险是指一项旅游投资所取得的结果和原期望结果的差异性。 衡量投资风险的大小，可以用风险率指标。 风险率就是指标准离差率与风险价值系数的乘积。 标准离差率是标准离差与期望利润之间的比率； 风险价值系数一般由投资者主观决定。,（1）期望利润的计算,（2）标准离差与标准离差率的计算,（3）风险价值的计算与