The economist.ppt

1、Excerpts from the Economists,The best that can be said about the market at the moment is that it is holding its breath. But this special report will argue that it will bounce back, and that the key to its recovery lies in globalization. The supply of the best works of art will always be limited, but

2、 in the longer run demand is bound to rise as wealth is spreading ever more widely across the globe.,对当下市场的最佳描述应当是市场正在屏息等待。但这篇特别报道认为它将会反弹，而反弹的关键在于全球化。对于最好的艺术作品的供应总是有限的，但从更长远的观点看， 随着财富越来越广泛地在全球分配，这个需求一定会提升。,That upward trend is still continuing, and many of the new buyers take a particular interest i

3、n the art of their own place and time. Last year China overtook France as the worlds third-biggest art market after America and Britain (see chart 1), and some 25% by value of the 100,000-plus works of art sold by Christies went to buyers from Russia, Asia and the Middle East.,那个上升的趋势还在继续，一些新的买家们对于他

4、们自己地区和时代的艺术作品具有独特的兴趣。去年中国取代了法国成为世界第三大艺术品市场，紧随着美国和英国。Christie 所卖出的十多万个作品中有百分之二十五的销售额来源于来自俄罗斯，亚洲和中东的买家,Auction records remain dominated by Impressionist and modern works, but the biggest expansion in recent years has been in contemporary art. Prices of older works keep going up as more people have mon

5、ey to spend, but few such works become available because both collectors and museums tend to hold on to what they have. Old Master paintings, for example, have stuck at around 5% of both Sothebys and Christies sales for many years. By contrast, contemporary art, which in the early 1990s accounted fo

6、r less than 10% of Sothebys revenues, grew to nearly 30% of greatly increased revenues by last year. Dealers and auction houses now sell more post-war and contemporary art than anything else. This report will concentrate on that part of the market, which accounts for about half the worlds art trade

7、and most of the excitement.,拍卖的最高纪录还是被印象派和现代派的作品所把持， 不过近年来扩张速度最快的当属当代艺术品。因为花得起钱购买的人越来越多， 那些年代久远的作品价格不断攀升。但很少这样的艺术品可以被购买到因为收藏家和艺术馆都倾向于保留他们所拥有的。举例来说，古老的大师级的绘画作品，许多年来在Sotheby 和 Christie 的销售中都徘徊在百分之五左右。对比之下， 当代艺术品在90 年代早期只占苏富比销售额的不到百分之十， 到了去年， 却增长到苏富比销售额的近30%，而苏富比如今的销售额已经是远非当年可比。经销商和拍卖行现在比其它任何类型都销售更多的战后

8、和当代的艺术作品。这个报道会关注在那一块市场，那里占据着约世界艺术贸易一半的席位和绝大多数使人兴奋的时刻。,Yet the World Development Report suggests that the main constraint on development these days may not be a poverty trap but a violence trap. Peaceful countries are managing to escape povertywhich is becoming concentrated in countries riven by civi

9、l war, ethnic conflict and organized crime. Violence and bad government prevent them from escaping the trap.,然而世界发展报告却提出，如今发展所受到的主要约束或许不是贫困陷阱，而是暴力陷阱。和平的国家正在成功摆脱贫困，而贫困现象正在集中于那些被内战、民族冲突及有组织犯罪撕裂的国家。暴力与糟糕的政府使得这些国家无法摆脱陷阱。,Excessive lending is contributing to inflation, which rose to 5.4% in the year to M

10、arch, prompting the central bank to raise the amount of money banks must keep in reserve to 20.5%, a record (see chart). Fitch worries that the fight against rising prices might inadvertently add to financial fragility. If the authorities have to slam on the brakes, the property market will falter,

11、jeopardising loans to developers and builders. In Fitchs worst-case scenario, a bank bail-out might cost 30% of GDP. That is a phenomenal figure. But it would still leave Chinas public debt below that of Brazil, let alone India. Indeed, China is remarkably creditworthy for a country at its stage of

12、development. The typical AA country is more than six times richer.,过度放贷对通胀起到了推波助澜的作用，截至今年3月，通胀率已经升至5.4%，促使央行将银行准备金率上调到创纪录的20.5%。惠誉担心对抗日益上涨的物价可能在不经意间增加金融的脆弱性。如果当局不得不踩刹车，房地产市场就会一蹶不振，从而危及发放给开发商和建筑商的贷款。根据惠誉最糟糕的设想，银行救助可能消耗30%的国内生产总值。这是一笔不小的数目。但是即便如此，中国的公共债务仍然比巴西少，比印度少就更不用说了。实际上，就其目前的发展水平来看，中国是一个相当值得信任的国家

13、。通常拥有AA级信用评级的国家要比中国富裕5倍多。,For Americans concerned about their countrys export prospects, the depressed value of the greenback ought to be good news. In February, the most recent month for which trade data are available, the dollar was 4.5% cheaper in real terms than a year earlier. But although Amer

14、icas trade deficit did fall in February, it was only because exports fell less steeply than imports. That months deficit was still $6 billion higher than a year earlier, when Barack Obama announced a plan to double exports in five years. Achieving that will take more than a cheap currency.,对于那些关心本国出

15、口前景美国人，美元的持续下跌应该是一个好消息。今年2月，也就是最近可以统计贸易数据的月份，美元较去年同期下跌了4.5%。但是，尽管美国的贸易赤字在今年二月有所减少，究其原因也只是出口相对于进口的数量的减量较小。2月份的贸易赤字与去年同期相比仍然增加了60亿美元。去年的2月，奥巴马总统宣布了出口翻番的五年计划。要实现这一计划，美元还得继续贬值。,Africas populations look set to soar by 2100,ON MAY 3rd, the United Nations produced its two-yearly update of the worlds popula

16、tion, which includes projections. The numbers show small tweaks since 2008. The global population is likely to reach 7 billion in October 2011, not spring 2012. And it may still be rising in 2100 past 10 billion, rather than being flat by then. But the most dramatic changes are national, not global.

17、 Americas population, now 310m, is likely to rise to 400m in 2050 and 478m in 2100. Chinas is forecast to fall by 400m between now and 2100. Russias population is now 142m; Afghanistans slightly more than a fifth of that; Nigers barely a tenth. But by 2100, Afghanistan is forecast to have the same p

18、opulation as Russia (111m) and Niger will be larger. Such forecasts need to be taken with a bucket load of salt: tiny shifts in todays birth rate extrapolated over 90 years produce huge changes. But the general picture is probably right. Sub-Saharan Africas current population, at 856m, is little mor

19、e than Europes and a fifth of Asias. By 2050 it could be almost three times Europes and by 2100 might even be three-quarters of the size of Asia. By any measure, Africa is by far the fastest-growing continent.,5月3日，联合国更新了它二年一次的世界人口统计和预测。数据自2008年以来略有变化。全球人口有可能会在2011年10月达到70亿，而不是2012年春达到70亿。而且在2100年世界

20、人口可能仍然会增长，并且超过100亿，而不是到那时将保持不变。但是最大的变化是国家性的，而不是全球性的。美国现在3.1亿的人口可能会在2050年涨到4亿，2100年将达到4.78亿。预计中国从现在到2100年将减少4亿人口。俄罗斯现在的人口是1.42亿；阿富汗的人口比俄罗斯的1/5多一点；尼日尔的人口仅仅是俄罗斯的1/10。但是到2100年，阿富汗的人口将和俄罗斯人口（1.11亿）持平，而尼日尔的人口要更多。但是对这样的预测需要存疑：用今天的生育率推断90年时间的人口变化？生育率的细微变化会带来人口的巨变。但是未来的总体图景很可能是正确的。撒哈拉以南非洲目前的人口是8.56亿，比欧洲人口多一点

21、，是亚洲人口的1/5。到2050年，该地区人口可能会几乎达到欧洲的3倍；到2100年，可能甚至会是亚洲人口规模的3/4。无论以哪种标准衡量，非洲都称得上是人口增长速度最快的大洲。,Under your own nose is often the last place you look for something you have mislaid. But in this case the missing object was the target of perhaps the most expensive manhunt in history. It seems inconceivable t

22、hat parts of the Pakistani establishment were unaware that Osama Bin Laden was living in their midst,如果您忘了某件东西放在哪里，翻遍了房间也找不到，而它却很可能就在您的眼皮底下。但这次要找的对象也许是史上最值钱的追捕目标了。巴基斯坦当局的各个部门都不知道乌萨马本拉登就生活在他们中间，这似乎令人难以置信。 Establishment 企业，机构，当权派，当局,RESEARCHERS have known for years that children whose mothers were chronically stressed during pregnancyby famine, anxiety, the death of a relative or marital discord, for instanceshow higher-than-normal rates of various psychological and behavioural disorders when they are adults. They have also known for a long time that those brought up in abusive environ