巴罗宏观经济学：现代观点第14章.ppt

1、Macroeconomics Chapter 14,1,Public Debt,C h a p t e r 1 4,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,2,The History of U.S. and U.K. Public Debt,The nominal quantity of interest-bearing debt and the ratio of this debt to nominal GDP,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,3,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,4,The History of U.S. and U.K.

2、Public Debt,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,5,The History of U.S. and U.K. Public Debt,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,6,The Data of Chinese Public Debt,From 1981 (中国市场统计年鉴2001年7-27) 1990 890.34 1991 1059.99 1992 1282.72 1993 1540.74 1994 2286.40 1995 3300.30 1996 4361.43 1997 5508.93 1998 7765.70 1999 10542.00

3、 2000 13674.00 2008年6月末中央财政国债总余额为52385.86亿元，控制在年末55185.85亿元国债余额限额以内 (2008年上半年国债管理报告) 财政部部长助理张通9日表示，2009年财政政策较大幅度增加中央财政赤字，并相应增加国债发行规模，中央财政国债余额限额为62708.35亿元。 (2009年04月09日 16:02来源：中国新闻网 ),Macroeconomics Chapter 14,7,Characteristics of Government Bonds,We assume that government bonds pay interest and pr

4、incipal in the same way as private bonds. We assume that bondholders (households in our model) regard government bonds as equivalent to private bonds.,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,8,Characteristics of Government Bonds,total bond holdings= Bt + Bgt total bond holdings= private bonds+ government bonds Bt

5、 = 0 still holds in the aggregate. total bond holdings of all households= Bgt,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,9,Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits,The Governments Budget Constraint Gt + Vt = Tt + ( Mt Mt1)/ Pt The real value of these interest payments, it1(Bgt1/Pt) adds to the governments expenditure

6、or uses of funds on the left-hand side of the governments budget constraint.,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,10,Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits,The Governments Budget Constraint Gt + Vt + it1(Bgt1/ Pt ) = Tt + (Bgt Bg t1)/Pt + (MtMt1)/Pt real purchases+ real transfers + real interest payments = rea

7、l taxes + real debt issue + real revenue from money creation,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,11,Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits,When nominal money, Mt, and the price level, Pt, do not change over time, the governments budget constraint becomes. Gt+ Vt+ rt1Bgt1/P = Tt+ (Bgt Bg t1)/P,Macroeconomics C

8、hapter 14,12,Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits,The Budget Deficit real government saving = (Bgt Bgt1)/P,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,13,Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits,The Budget Deficit (Bgt Bgt1)/P = Tt 【Gt+ Vt+ rt1Bgt1/P】 real government saving = real taxes real government expenditure,Ma

9、croeconomics Chapter 14,14,Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits,The Budget Deficit the governments revenue exceeds its expenditure, and the government has a budget surplus. the government has a balanced budget, and the governments real saving is zero.,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,15,Budget Constraint

10、s and Budget Deficits,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,16,Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits,Public Saving, Private Saving, and National Saving real household saving(economy-wide) = Kt Kt1 + (Bgt Bgt1)/ P real national saving= Kt Kt1,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,17,Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits,H

11、ouseholds multiyear budget constraint C1 + C2/(1+r1) + = (1+r0)( B0/P+K0) +(w/P)1Ls1 +(w/P)2 Ls2 /(1+r1)+ +( V1 T1) + ( V2 T2)/( 1 + r1) +( V3 T3)/(1+ r1) ( 1 + r2) + ,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,18,Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits,multiyear household budget constraint with government bonds C1 +

12、 C2/(1+r1) + = (1+r0)( B0/P+Bg0/P+K0) +(w/P)1Ls1 +(w/P)2 Ls2 /(1+r1) + +( V1 T1) + ( V2 T2)/( 1 + r1) +( V3 T3)/(1+ r1) ( 1 + r2) + ,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,19,Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits,A Simple Case of Ricardian Equivalence r0 = r1 = r2 = = r . Mt, and Pt, do not change over time. Re

13、al transfers, Vt, are zero each year. the government has a given time path of purchases, Gt,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,20,Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits,A Simple Case of Ricardian Equivalence Government Budget Constraint Gt+ r Bgt1/P = Tt+ (BgtBgt1)/P the government starts with Bg0/P = 0. In

14、year 1：G1 = T1 + Bg1/P,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,21,Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits,A Simple Case of Ricardian Equivalence Suppose, to begin, that the government balances its budget each year. Then in year1 G1 = T1 Continuing on, if the government balances its budget every year, Bgt /P, =0 in

15、 every year t.,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,22,Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits,A Simple Case of Ricardian Equivalence now the government runs a real budget deficit of one unit? the deficit must come from a cut in real taxes, T1, by one unit. the real deficit of one unit requires the government t

16、o issue one unit of real public debt at the end of year 1 Bg1 /P = 1.,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,23,Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits,A Simple Case of Ricardian Equivalence Assume Bg2 /P = Bg3 /P = = 0. G2 + rBg1 /P = T2 + (Bg2Bg1)/P Bg1/P = 1 and Bg2/P = 0 G2 + r = T2 1 T2 = G2 + 1 + r,Macroeco

17、nomics Chapter 14,24,Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits,A Simple Case of Ricardian Equivalence decrease in year 1s real taxes+ present value of increase in year 2s taxes = 1 + ( 1 + r)/( 1 + r) = 1 + 1 = 0,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,25,Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits,A Simple Case of Ricar

18、dian Equivalence If the government replaces a unit of real taxes with a unit of real budget deficit, households know that the present value of next years real taxes will rise by one unit. Thus, the real budget deficit is the same as a real tax in terms of the overall present value of real taxes. Thi

19、s finding is the simplest version of the Ricardian equivalence theorem on the public debt.,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,26,Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits,Another Case of Ricardian Equivalence G2 + rBg1 /P = T2 + (Bg2Bg1)/P Bg2/P = Bg1/P = 1 G2 + r = T2,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,27,Budget Constr

20、aints and Budget Deficits,Ricardian Equivalence More Generally C1 + C2/(1+r1) + = (1+r0)( B0/P+Bg0/P+K0) +(w/P)1Ls1 +(w/P)2 Ls2 /(1+r1) + +( V1 T1) + ( V2 T2)/( 1 + r1) +( V3 T3)/(1+ r1) ( 1 + r2) + ,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,28,Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits,Ricardian Equivalence More Gener

21、ally t=1: T1 decreases 1 t=2: T2 increases r t=3: T3 increases r we find again that the deficit-financed tax cut in year 1 has no income effects on households.,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,29,Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits,Ricardian Equivalence More Generally If the time path of Gt is given (an

22、d if Vt = 0), we can show that a higher Bg0/P requires the government to collect a correspondingly higher present value of real taxes, Tt, to finance the debt. This higher present value of real taxes exactly offsets the higher Bg0/P. Thus, we still have no income effects on households.,Macroeconomic

23、s Chapter 14,30,Economic Effects of a Budget Deficit,What happens in the equilibrium business-cycle model when the government cuts year 1s real taxes, T1, and runs a budget deficit? Economists often refer to this type of change as a simulative fiscal policy.,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,31,Economic Eff

24、ects of a Budget Deficit,Lump-Sum Taxes the cut in year 1s real taxes, T1, and the increases in future real taxes, Tt , all involve lump-sum taxes. no substitution effects on consumption and labor supply. We have found in our equilibrium business-cycle model that a deficit-financed tax cut does not

25、stimulate the economy. In particular, real GDP, Y, gross investment, I, and the real interest rate, r , do not change,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,32,Economic Effects of a Budget Deficit,Labor Income Taxes The fall in T1 is accompanied by a decline in (w)1. The changes in marginal income tax rates, (w)

26、1 and (w)2, affect the labor market in years 1 and 2.,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,33,Economic Effects of a Budget Deficit,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,34,Economic Effects of a Budget Deficit,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,35,Economic Effects of a Budget Deficit,Labor Income Taxes The increase in (w)2 lowers l

27、abor supply in year 2. This decrease in labor supply leads, when the labor market clears, to a lower quantity of labor, (L2). The reduced labor input leads to a decrease in year 2s real GDP, Y2.,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,36,Economic Effects of a Budget Deficit,Labor Income Taxes a budget deficit all

28、ows the government to change the timing of labor input and production. A budget deficit that finances a cut in year 1s tax rate on labor income motivates a rearrangement of the time pattern of work and productiontoward the present (year 1) and away from the future (year 2).,Macroeconomics Chapter 14

29、,37,Economic Effects of a Budget Deficit,Asset Income Taxes changes in the timing of asset-income tax rates cause changes in the timing of consumption, C, and investment, I. The general point is that, by running budget deficits or surpluses, the government can induce changes in the timing of various

30、 aspects of economic activity: L, Y, C, and I.,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,38,Economic Effects of a Budget Deficit,The Timing of Taxes and Tax-Rate Smoothing We have found that budget deficits and surpluses allow the government to change the timing of tax rates. However, it would not be a good idea fo

31、r the government randomly to make tax rates high in some years and low in others.,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,39,Economic Effects of a Budget Deficit,The public debt has typically been managed to maintain a pattern of reasonably stable tax rates over time. This behavior is called tax-rate smoothing.,M

32、acroeconomics Chapter 14,40,Economic Effects of a Budget Deficit,Strategic Budget Deficits This view of the Reagan-Bush budget deficits after 1983 gave rise to a new theory called strategic budget deficits. The word “strategic” is used because the models involve political strategies analogous to tho

33、se analyzed in game theory.,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,41,Economic Effects of a Budget Deficit,Ricardian equivalence - a deficit-finance tax cut does not affect real GDP and other macroeconomic variables. The Standard View of a Budget Deficit a deficit-financed tax cut makes households feel wealthier

34、, consumption, C1, increases。,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,42,Economic Effects of a Budget Deficit,The Standard View of a Budget Deficit year 1s inputs of labor and capital services stay the same, and real GDP, Y1 does not change. Since C1 increases, gross investment, I1, has to decline for given gover

35、nment purchases, G1.,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,43,Economic Effects of a Budget Deficit,The Standard View of a Budget Deficit These long-term negative effects on capital stock and real GDP are sometimes described as a burden of the public debt,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,44,Economic Effects of a Budget

36、 Deficit,Finite lifetimes The decrease in the present value of real taxes for current generations coincides with an increase in the present value of real taxes for members of future generations. Individuals will be born with a liability for a portion of taxes to pay the interest and principal on the

37、 higher stock of real public debt. These people will not share in the benefits from the earlier tax cut. Present taxpayers would not feel wealthier if they counted fully the present value of the prospective taxes on descendants.,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,45,Economic Effects of a Budget Deficit,Imper

38、fect credit markets When credit markets are imperfect, some households will calculate present values of future real taxes by using a real interest rate above the governments rate.,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,46,Social Security,Retirement benefits paid through social security programs are substantial i

39、n the United States and most other developed countries. Feldstein argues that these public pension programs reduce saving and investment.,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,47,Social Security,Social security is not a fully funded system. workers payments accumulate in a trust fund, which later provides for retirement benefits. pay-as-you-go system, in which benefits to elderly persons are financed by taxes on the currently young.,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,48,Social Security,econom