主题演讲keynote_str_增长与预期探索中国酒店业绩表现和持续繁荣能力_hmc 2018

1、增长与预期With growth comes expectations探索中国酒店业绩表现和持续繁荣能力叶朋勤Jesper Palmqvist | 刘博Christine Liu2018年6月27日 27th June 2018 2018 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved.Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, L

2、td. trading as STR(collectively “STR”) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.亚太地区市场表现Asia Pacific Hotel Performance供给，需求和每间

3、可售房收入同比变化率Supply, Demand & RevPAR Growth 2015 2017全年，固定汇率，美元FY 2015 2017, CC, USD 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.国际到访旅客- 市场需求 International Arrivals - Demand 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved. 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.28.7m (+19.3%)Japan日本25.9m (-3.0%)Malaysia马来西亚58.5m (+3.2%)Hong Kong SAR特别行政区17.4m

4、 (+6.2%)Singapore新加坡13.3m (-22.7%)South Korea韩国143m (+3.5%)Mainland China中国内地35.4m (+8.8%)Thailand泰国12.9m(+30.5%)Vietnam越南10.2m(+15.3%)India14.0m (+21.9%)Indonesia尼西亚Top 10 CountriesInternational Visitors Arrivals (millions), FY 2017 Source: PATA & Tourism Authorities of each Country 2018 STR. All R

5、ights Reserved.倍受中国游客青睐的十大亚太目的地城市Top Asia Pacific destinations for Chinese visitors中国内地出境游客总数 2017全年 By Total Outbound of Mainland Chinese FY 2017Hong Kong SAR44.4 Millions (+3.2%)highdependency1/3fastgrowthBig decline-48%+49%+36%Source: NTOs, Ministry of Tourism, and PATA | 数据来源：各国家旅游组织，旅游局和亚太旅游协会

6、2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.需求VS 到访旅客同比变化率 2012 - 2017全年Hotel Demand Growth vs Visitors Arrival FY 2012 FY 2017Hong Kong65Mainland China ArrivalInternational Arrival608%Hong Kongs Demand55+0.3%6%+1.1%-0.9%5%+3.1%2%50-1.1%2%-0.8%4540-2%-3.0%35-6.7%+24.2%+16.7%+16.0%+3.9%30201220132014201520162017Ho

7、ng Kong SAR, Total Hotel Demand Growth vs Visitors Arrival, FY 2012 FY 2017 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.Millions特别行政区市场表现Hong Kong SAR Hotel PerformanceHong KongForecast 2018-2020:RevPAR growth 4-5%49个月每间可售房收入12个月均线同比变化率 2013年1月 2018年5月，港币 Hong Kong SAR, Monthly R12 Growth Occupancy & ADR, Jan 201

8、3 May 2018, HKD 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.韩国市场表现South Korea Hotel Performance入住率和平均房价Occupancy & ADR Performance2013年5月 2018年5月，同比变化率，韩元R12 May 2013 2018, KRW 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.东盟部分市场表现ASEAN 6 Hotel Performance每间可售房收入指数（基于2013年业绩） RevPAR Performance (Indexed to 2013)12月均线同比变化率，2013年5

9、月 2018年五月，当地货币R12 May 2013 2018, Local Currency130IndonesiaMalaysiaThailandPhilippinesVietnamSingapore1201101009080201320142015201620172018 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.供给Supply 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.亚太地区筹建酒店项目统计Asia Pacific Pipeline Under Contract截至2018年5月, 总房量前十位的国家 Top 10 Countries by To

10、tal Number of Rooms, As of May 2018MINPAKU民宿 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.中国内地业绩表现Mainland China Performance2017全年，同比变化率，人民币FY 2017，%Change, CNYRevPAR+6.0%OCC+4.1%ADR+1.8% 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.中国主要城市业绩表现Main Cities Occupancy & ADR2017全年，同比变化率，人民币FY 2017, % Change, CNY 2018 STR. All Rights

11、Reserved.中国内地主要城市表现 Mainland China Key Cities Performance截至2018年5月，每间可售房收入同比变化率RevPAR % Change, YTD May 2018部分市场出现入住率同比下降 多市场双指标驱动RevPAR上升 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.中国内地新增供给发展Mainland China Pipeline截至2018年5月，2018-2022全年，已签约酒店客房数占现有比例FY 2018 2022, The number of pipeline rooms as a percentage of e

12、xisting rooms, Under Contract, as of May 2018长沙Changsha24%三亚Sanya30%贵阳Guiyang44%昆明Kunming27%武汉Wuhan20%成都Chengdu21% 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.中档偏上酒店Upper Midscale相比12个月前 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.中国内地各级别酒店业绩Mainland China Performance Trend by Class2013至2017全年，每间可售房收入指数（基于2013年业绩），人民币FY 2013 2

13、017, RevPAR Performance (Index to 2013), CNY108奢华和超高端酒店Luxury Class & Upper Upscale高端和中档偏上酒店Upscale & Upper Midscale Upscale106104中档和经济型酒店Midscale & Economy102100989620132014201520162017 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.中国内地主要市场细分表现Mainland China Hotel Performance by Main Segmentation2017全年，入住率同比变化率 FY

14、 2017 Occupancy %Change团体Group10+5.5%-2.3%散客Transient 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.新通高铁所带来的机遇The opportunities with High-Speed Railway 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.中国高速铁路网络示意图 China High-Speed Railway Network图片来源：高铁网/ 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.新通高铁所带来的机遇 The opportunities wi

15、th High Speed Rail2012年至2017年，需求指数（基于2012年业绩），人民币FY 2012 2017, Demand Performance (Index to 2012), CNY180中国内地Mainland China160贵阳Guiyang沪昆高铁2015.6武汉Wuhan武九客运专线2017.9140沪汉蓉高速铁路2014.7120武咸城际2013.121002017 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.20122013201420152016西成高铁Xian-Chengdu High-Speed TrainDec. 2017 2018

16、STR. All Rights Reserved.新通高铁所带来的机遇 The opportunities with High Speed Rail2015至2018年，每间可售房收入指数(基于2015年业绩)，人民币2015 2018, RevPAR Performance (Index to 2015), CNYYTD MaySCphrininegseFeNsetiwvaYl ear180Chengdu 成都Xian 西安180Chengdu 成都Xian 西安1501501201209090YTD May 2015 YTD May 2016 YTD May 2017 YTD May 20

17、182015201620172018 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.2017 盈利数据报告新鲜出炉2017 P&L Data is now available 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.中国内地市场人工成本Mainland China Labour Costs by Class2017全年，奢华、超高端和高端市场，人民币FY 2017, Luxury, Upper Upscale & Upscale, CNY 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.中国内地回顾Mainland China OverviewFY

18、 2017, RevPAR % Change by Main Department, CNY8%5%2% 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.Beverage酒水Food食品Rooms客房中国内地回顾Mainland China OverviewFY 2017, Expense PAR % Change by Main Department, CNY4%7% 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.Utility Cost 能源成本Marketing 市场营销总结与潜力 Takeaways and Potential需求增长明显, 房价上行压力减小With Demand growth comes higher rates北京新增供给持续走低，上海挑战与机会共存Beijing “on hold” - Shanghai remains very active休闲旅游持续增温，基础建设助力大产业National infrastructure pushi