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中国地质大学毕业论文大型商场火灾公众责任保险风险评估方法及应用研究学科专业安全技术及工程大型商场火灾公众责任保险风险评估方法及应用研究摘要近年来,大型商场由于安全管理不善,导致特大火灾事故绵绵不断,从火灾事故统计数据,我们知道,造成这些重大火灾事故,大部分都与责任人或责任因素有关,但由于各地火灾公共责任保险的投保面窄,投保额低,政府在灾害事故的善后工作中承担着巨大的压力。这种状况既不利于社会的稳定,也不利于经济社会的可持续发展。因此,在积极预防灾害、加强安全管理的同时,充分发挥火灾公众责任保险的作用,加快建立因他方责任而造成的第三者财产损失和人身伤害的补偿机制,显得十分紧迫和必要。保险公司应提升服务水平,充分发挥保险经济杠杆的作用,根据保险标的的不同风险实行浮动费率,体现奖优罚劣的目的。作为保险部门,通过火灾风险评估可以全面考察商场的火灾风险状况,研究商场的火灾风险如何随外界条件的改变而变化,以便为寻求最优的安全投资提供可靠的理论依据。它的主要任务是准确识别系统中存在的火灾风险因素,并对这些火灾风险因素的影响程度做出恰当的评估,量化被评估对象的火灾风险状况,为提出控制与处理事故的措施和方案奠定基础。可见,如何科学地评估大型商场火灾风险状况,既有利于火灾公众责任保险业务稳定经营,也为核保提供技术支持。因此,它是保险行业迫切需要解决的问题,它为制定合理的火灾公众责任保险费率和出具防灾防损建议提供科学依据。本文就火灾公众责任保险在全面推行过程中,对一定会遇到的问题作了较为细致的研究。其主要结论如下(1)在全面了解国内外火灾公众责任保险实施的基础上,详细论述现阶段我国火灾公众责任保险强制实施的重要性和紧迫性。论述国内外火灾风险评估方法研究现状、发展趋势以及在保险行业的应用状况。(2)论文对商场火灾危险性进行了分析,讨论了因素集、评估集、单级评估、评估计算模型和多级评估模型,并在此基础上建立了以商场建筑自身安全、灭火救援力量、疏散系统、人员特征以及防火管理为子集的大型商场火灾风险模糊评估的三级指标体系,采用专家调查表方法确定了评估指标的权重系数。(3)模糊综合评估方法可以对难以定量的多因素体系做出定量评估,它可以将定量的问题以及人们对此问题的主观判断有数量的形式表达出来,并进行模糊运算处理。它在一定程度上能减少人的主观错误,使评估更加科学合理。本论文采用模糊综合评估方法对大型商场火灾风险进行评估,具有一定的理论和现实意义。(4)在商场火灾风险评估研究的基础上,对火灾公众责任保险的费率厘定作了进一步的探讨,并制定了科学合理的定价模型,对当前火灾公众责任保险的全面推行,具有相当重要的现实意义。(5)本文通过对武汉某商场的火灾风险评估,演示了所提出的方法的可行性,它为保险公司和商场的风险控制工作提供技术支撑。关键词火灾公共责任保险火灾风险评估费率风险控制ResearchonFireRiskAssessmentMethodoftheLargescaleMarketsaboutthePublicLiabilityInsuranceofFireABSTRACTRecently,thebadsafetymanagementcausesthebigfireaccidentcontinuouslyinthelargescalemarkets.Fromthefireaccidentstatisticsdata,thesebigfireaccidentsarerelatedtotheownersortheresponsibilityfactors.However,becausethelimitedinsureditemsandlowlinesofthePublicLiabilityInsuranceofFire,governmentwasundertakingthehugepressureatthefollowinguptreatmentofdisaster.Thiskindofconditiondoesnotonlyfavorthesocialstability,butalsothesustainabledevelopmentofeconomicsociety.Therefore,whenwepreventthedisasterandenhancethesafetycontrolpositivelyweshoulddisplaythefunctionofthePublicLiabilityInsuranceofFirefully,speedsuptheestablishmentofcompensationmechanismforthethirdpartypropertydamageandthepersoninjurescausedbyanothersourceofresponsibility,thatappearsextremelyurgentandessential.Insurancecompaniesshouldupgradetheirservicestandardsandgivefullplayastheroleofinsuranceeconomiclevers.Itshouldpracticeafloatingrateaccordingtothevarioussubjectmatterofinsurance,reflectingthepurposeofrewardthegoodandfinethebad.Astheinsurancesector,theycanhaveacomprehensivestudyofthefirerisksituationbyconductingthefireriskassessment.Theydoresearchonhowthefireriskwillbechangingwiththechangedoftheconditionsoftheoutsideworld,inordertoprovideareliabletheoryforseekingthebestsafetyinvestment.Itsmaintaskistoidentifythefireriskfactorswhichareexistedinthesystemaccurately,andtodosomeappropriateassessmentabouttheimpactlevelofthefireriskfactors,andtoquantifythesituationofthefireriskoftheevaluatedobjects.Throughabovesteps,theycanlayoutthefoundationstomeasuresandprogrammes.So,Howtoevaluatethefireriskconditionsofshoppingmallsscientificallyisnotonlygoodtoconductthefirepublicliabilityinsurancestability,buttoprovidetechnicalsupportsforunderwriting.Therefore,itistheimpressingproblemtobeaddressedintheinsuranceindustry.ItalsoprovidesscientificsuggestionsforformulatingareasonablerateoffireofpublicliabilityinsuranceandtellingouttheadvicesofdisasterpreventionandlossPrevention.ThisarticleisonthecarefulresearchabouttheproblemswewillmeetduringthecomprehensiveprocesswhenwecarryoutthePublicliabilityInsuranceofFire.Asfollowsarethemainconclusions(1)OnthebasicofhavingacomprehensiveunderstandingoftheimplementationofthePublicLiabilityInsuranceofFireathomeandabroad,discussingindetailthattheimportanceandurgencyoftheenforcementedimplementationofthePublicLiabilityInsuranceofFireatthestageinourcountry.Discussingtheresearchstatus,developingtrendandtheapplicationintheinsuranceaboatthefireriskassessmentmethodsathomeandabroad.(2)thepaperhascarriedontheanalysistothehazardofmarketfires,thediscussionaboutthefactorsystem,theevaluationsystem,singleclassevaluation,evaluationcalculationmodelandmultilevelevaluationmode.Andestablishedinthisfoundationwehaveestablishedthethreelevelstandardssystemwhichisaboutthefuzzyappraisaloflargescalemarketsfireriskswhichconsistsofthebuildingsownsecurity,thefirefightingrescuestrength,thescatteredsystem,thepersonnelcharacteristicaswellasthefireprotectionmanagement.Subsystemfactorswereascertained.Usingexpertsresearchmethod,theauthormadesuretheweightofthefireevaluationsystem.(3)Fuzzycomprehensiveevaluationmethodcanmakequantitativeassessmentonthemultifactorssystem.ThequantitativeproblemsandthePeoplessubjectivejudgementsonthisissuecanbeexpressedinthewayofamout,andtodofuzzyprocessing.Toacertainextent,itcanreducethesubjectivemistakesandmaketheevaluationmorescientifically.ThispaperusedfuzzycomprehensivemethodtoevaluatethefireriskofLargescaleMarkets,hasatheoreticalandpracticalsignificance.(4)onthebasisofassessmentresearchofmarketfiresrisks,theauthormakethefurtherdiscussionaboutthetariffofthePublicLiabilityInsuranceofFire,andformulatethescientificandreasonablemodeloffixingprice,whichhavethepracticalsignificantinfluenceonthecomprehensivecarryingoutthePublicLiabilityInsuranceofFire.(5)throughtheassessmentoffiresriskstosomemarketinWuhan,theauthordemonstratesthefeasibilityofthemethodwhichproposed.ItprovidestheeffectivetechnicalsupportfortheinsurancecompanyandthecontrolofrisktoLargescaleMarkets.KeyWordsthePublicLiabilityInsuranceofFirefireriskassessmentthetariffthecontrolofrisk目录第一章绪论.................................................................................................................1§1.1课题的研究背景..............................................................................................11.1.1我国大型商场火灾形势严峻.....................................................................11.1.2大型商场火灾特点....................................................................................21.1.3火灾公众责任保险的强制推行必要性.......................................................3§1.2国内外火灾风险评估方法在保险业中的应用现状.............................................4§1.3本文研究内容和意义.......................................................................................51.3.1研究内容.................................................................................................51.3.2研究意义.................................................................................................6第二章常见建筑火灾风险评估方法................................................................................7§2.1火灾风险的相关概念.......................................................................................7§2.2火灾风险的度量和容忍度................................................................................82.2.1火灾风险的度量.......................................................................................82.2.2风险容忍度.............................................................................................10§2.3火灾风险评估方法..........................................................................................102.3.1定性分析方法.........................................................................................102.3.2半定量分析方法......................................................................................112.3.3定量分析方法.........................................................................................13第三章大型商场火灾公众责任保险风险评估指标体系建立............................................18§3.1大型商场火灾发展特性...................................................................................183.1.1火灾起始阶段.........................................................................................183.1.2火灾全面发展阶段..................................................................................193.1.3火灾熄灭阶段.........................................................................................19§3.2大型商场火灾主要原因...................................................................................203.2.1电气火灾.................................................................................................203.2.2装饰装修违反消防规定............................................................................203.2.3消防设施缺陷..........................................................................................203.2.4消防意识淡薄..........................................................................................213.2.5公众普遍缺乏消防常识............................................................................21§3.3大型商场内火灾蔓延途径...............................................................................213.3.1水平方向蔓延..........................................................................................213.3.2火灾通过竖井蔓延...................................................................................223.3.3火灾通过空调系统管道蔓延.....................................................................223.3.4火灾由窗口向上层蔓延............................................................................22§3.4大型商场火灾公众责任保险风险评估指标体系的建立.....................................223.4.1评估指标建立和选取的原则.....................................................................223.4.2大型商场火灾风险评估的一级因素分析...................................................233.4.3大型商场火灾风险评估的二级因素分析...................................................243.4.4风险评估指标体系的建立........................................................................243.4.5风险评估指标的量化...............................................................................25第四章大型商场火灾公众责任保险风险评估模型研究...................................................31§4.1模糊评估理论基础...........................................................................................314.1.1因素集....................................................................................................314.1.2评估集....................................................................................................324.1.3一级模糊综合评判..................................................................................324.1.4单因素综合评估的计算模型....................................................................334.1.5计算模型的适用范围...............................................................................344.1.6多层次模糊综合评估...............................................................................34§4.2大型商场火灾公众责任保险风险评估指标权重的确定......................................354.2.1权重确定方法的对比分析........................................................................354.2.2专家咨询法.............................................................................................354.2.3评估指标权重确定...................................................................................36第五章火灾公众责任保险的定价模型探讨与研究..........................................................41§5.1国内外责任保险发展概述................................................................................415.1.1国外责任保险发展概况............................................................................415.1.2我国责任保险发展概况............................................................................41§5.2责任保险的概念与特点...................................................................................425.2.1责任保险的概念......................................................................................425.2.2责任保险的特点......................................................................................42§5.3火灾公众责任保险基本内容.............................................................................435.3.1保险对象.................................................................................................445.3.2保险责任.................................................................................................455.3.3责任除外.................................................................................................455.3.4责任限额.................................................................................................45§5.4火灾公众责任保险费率厘定.............................................................................455.4.1保险费率的含义与构成............................................................................455.4.2保险费率厘定的基本原则........................................................................465.4.3火灾公众责任保险费率厘定.....................................................................46§5.5小结................................................................................................................47第六章研究模型实例应用.............................................................................................48§6.1武汉某大型商场概况.......................................................................................48§6.2火灾风险评估指标描述....................................................................................486.2.1建筑自身防火系统...................................................................................486.2.2灭火系统.................................................................................................49
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