港口铁路高速公路行业投资

蒸蒸日上的中国港口业

分析员:郑栋2007年8月12日1内容提要第一章

行业基本面回顾第二章重点公司推荐2第一章行业基本面回顾3吞吐量大增.

GDP和外贸增长是主要动力今年上半年国内主要港口的吞吐量同比上升15.5%,增幅较上年同期略低2个百分点。上半年中国GDP增长11.5%,外贸增长23.3%,成为港口吞吐量上升的最重要动力。资料来源:CEIC,中金公司研究部Thisreportisbasedoninformationavailabletothepublic.Norepresentationismadethatitisaccurateorcomplete.Thisdocumentisnotanoffertobuyorsellorasolicitationofanoffertobuyorsellthesecuritiesmentioned.ChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedandothersassociatedwithit(CICC)mayhavepositionsin,andmayeffecttransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesmentionedhereinandmayalsoperformorseektoperforminvestmentbankingservicesforthosecompanies.ThisreportmayalsobemadeavailableinHongKongbyChinaInternationalCapitalCorporation(HongKong)Limitedand/orChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationHongKongSecuritiesLimited.CopyrightofthisdocumentbelongstoCICC.Anyformofunauthorizeddistribution,reproduction,publication,releaseorquotationbyanyinstitutionorindividualisprohibitedwithoutCICC’swrittenpermission.4集装箱业务表现最为强劲资料来源:中金公司研究部,中国航贸网在港口业务中,今年上半年集装箱吞吐量创下24.4%的同比升幅,较上年同期的增速高1.2个百分点,在所有港口业务中居首。Thisreportisbasedoninformationavailabletothepublic.Norepresentationismadethatitisaccurateorcomplete.Thisdocumentisnotanoffertobuyorsellorasolicitationofanoffertobuyorsellthesecuritiesmentioned.ChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedandothersassociatedwithit(CICC)mayhavepositionsin,andmayeffecttransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesmentionedhereinandmayalsoperformorseektoperforminvestmentbankingservicesforthosecompanies.ThisreportmayalsobemadeavailableinHongKongbyChinaInternationalCapitalCorporation(HongKong)Limitedand/orChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationHongKongSecuritiesLimited.CopyrightofthisdocumentbelongstoCICC.Anyformofunauthorizeddistribution,reproduction,publication,releaseorquotationbyanyinstitutionorindividualisprohibitedwithoutCICC’swrittenpermission.5集装箱业务增长的动力:外贸增长,出口升级及运输集装箱化率的提升资料来源:CEIC,辽宁师大,中金公司研究部

我们的宏观分析小组预计今明两年外贸将分别增长26%和20%。中国的出口结构继续升级。中国的集装箱化率远低于国际同业。我们估计未来三年，中国港口集装箱业务年复合增长率将达20%。Thisreportisbasedoninformationavailabletothepublic.Norepresentationismadethatitisaccurateorcomplete.Thisdocumentisnotanoffertobuyorsellorasolicitationofanoffertobuyorsellthesecuritiesmentioned.ChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedandothersassociatedwithit(CICC)mayhavepositionsin,andmayeffecttransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesmentionedhereinandmayalsoperformorseektoperforminvestmentbankingservicesforthosecompanies.ThisreportmayalsobemadeavailableinHongKongbyChinaInternationalCapitalCorporation(HongKong)Limitedand/orChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationHongKongSecuritiesLimited.CopyrightofthisdocumentbelongstoCICC.Anyformofunauthorizeddistribution,reproduction,publication,releaseorquotationbyanyinstitutionorindividualisprohibitedwithoutCICC’swrittenpermission.6短期内无须担忧港口吞吐能力过剩据交通部规划，到2010年中国将拥有377个集装箱泊位,总设计吞吐能力为1.36亿TEU。2006年，中国集装箱吞吐量达9,300万TEU，我们预计明年将升至1.339亿TEU，到2010年底将接近设计吞吐能力。未来四年强劲的需求应会缓冲持续扩容压力，极大缓解吞吐能力过剩的担忧。Thisreportisbasedoninformationavailabletothepublic.Norepresentationismadethatitisaccurateorcomplete.Thisdocumentisnotanoffertobuyorsellorasolicitationofanoffertobuyorsellthesecuritiesmentioned.ChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedandothersassociatedwithit(CICC)mayhavepositionsin,andmayeffecttransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesmentionedhereinandmayalsoperformorseektoperforminvestmentbankingservicesforthosecompanies.ThisreportmayalsobemadeavailableinHongKongbyChinaInternationalCapitalCorporation(HongKong)Limitedand/orChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationHongKongSecuritiesLimited.CopyrightofthisdocumentbelongstoCICC.Anyformofunauthorizeddistribution,reproduction,publication,releaseorquotationbyanyinstitutionorindividualisprohibitedwithoutCICC’swrittenpermission.7增值税退税调整影响不大

机械和运输设备在中国的出口中占主要部分。近期的增值税退税调整对这部分的影响甚微，调整后其退税率仍高达9-11%，居于首位。

中国政府鼓励高附加值机械产品的发展，这有望推升港口吞吐量。资料来源:CEIC,中金公司研究部Thisreportisbasedoninformationavailabletothepublic.Norepresentationismadethatitisaccurateorcomplete.Thisdocumentisnotanoffertobuyorsellorasolicitationofanoffertobuyorsellthesecuritiesmentioned.ChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedandothersassociatedwithit(CICC)mayhavepositionsin,andmayeffecttransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesmentionedhereinandmayalsoperformorseektoperforminvestmentbankingservicesforthosecompanies.ThisreportmayalsobemadeavailableinHongKongbyChinaInternationalCapitalCorporation(HongKong)Limitedand/orChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationHongKongSecuritiesLimited.CopyrightofthisdocumentbelongstoCICC.Anyformofunauthorizeddistribution,reproduction,publication,releaseorquotationbyanyinstitutionorindividualisprohibitedwithoutCICC’swrittenpermission.8投资主题:内生增长及资产扩张腹地的经济增长潜能，尤其是外贸发展，对于港口的内生增长而言至关重要。因此，珠江三角洲、长江三角洲以及环渤海地区仍是中国港口发展的主要地区。中国港口的建设或重组将为运营商提供注资的机会。

Thisreportisbasedoninformationavailabletothepublic.Norepresentationismadethatitisaccurateorcomplete.Thisdocumentisnotanoffertobuyorsellorasolicitationofanoffertobuyorsellthesecuritiesmentioned.ChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedandothersassociatedwithit(CICC)mayhavepositionsin,andmayeffecttransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesmentionedhereinandmayalsoperformorseektoperforminvestmentbankingservicesforthosecompanies.ThisreportmayalsobemadeavailableinHongKongbyChinaInternationalCapitalCorporation(HongKong)Limitedand/orChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationHongKongSecuritiesLimited.CopyrightofthisdocumentbelongstoCICC.Anyformofunauthorizeddistribution,reproduction,publication,releaseorquotationbyanyinstitutionorindividualisprohibitedwithoutCICC’swrittenpermission.9第二章重点公司推荐

10天津港:审慎推荐荐天津港是是我们推推荐的港港口类股股票的首首选腹地经济济发展将将带来货货源支持持集装箱业业务的快快速发展展加快公公司的业业务转型型资产注入入将进一一步提高高盈利水水平天津港区区发展空空间巨大大估值分析析Thisreportisbasedoninformationavailabletothepublic.Norepresentationismadethatitisaccurateorcomplete.Thisdocumentisnotanoffertobuyorsellorasolicitationofanoffertobuyorsellthesecuritiesmentioned.ChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedandothersassociatedwithit(CICC)mayhavepositionsin,andmayeffecttransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesmentionedhereinandmayalsoperformorseektoperforminvestmentbankingservicesforthosecompanies.ThisreportmayalsobemadeavailableinHongKongbyChinaInternationalCapitalCorporation(HongKong)Limitedand/orChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationHongKongSecuritiesLimited.CopyrightofthisdocumentbelongstoCICC.Anyformofunauthorizeddistribution,reproduction,publication,releaseorquotationbyanyinstitutionorindividualisprohibitedwithoutCICC’swrittenpermission.11天津港：：腹地省份份GDP将实现现快于全全国平均均水平的的增长资料来源源:CEIC,中金公司司研究部部天津港直直接经济济腹地占占全国面面积的46.9%。“十五””期间，，天津港港腹地省省份GDP增长长率均快快于全国国平均水水平。“十一五五”期间间，腹地地经济的的快速发发展将极极大推动动天津口口岸进出出口总值值的增长长，从而而为天津津港货物物吞吐量量带来货货源支持持。Thisreportisbasedoninformationavailabletothepublic.Norepresentationismadethatitisaccurateorcomplete.Thisdocumentisnotanoffertobuyorsellorasolicitationofanoffertobuyorsellthesecuritiesmentioned.ChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedandothersassociatedwithit(CICC)mayhavepositionsin,andmayeffecttransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesmentionedhereinandmayalsoperformorseektoperforminvestmentbankingservicesforthosecompanies.ThisreportmayalsobemadeavailableinHongKongbyChinaInternationalCapitalCorporation(HongKong)Limitedand/orChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationHongKongSecuritiesLimited.CopyrightofthisdocumentbelongstoCICC.Anyformofunauthorizeddistribution,reproduction,publication,releaseorquotationbyanyinstitutionorindividualisprohibitedwithoutCICC’swrittenpermission.12天津港：：天津口岸岸进出口口总值预预测资料来源源:CEIC,中金公司司研究部部“十五””期间，，天津港港腹地省省份的GDP出出口依存存度逐步步上升，，使得天天津口岸岸进出口口总值实实现快于于腹地GDP总总量增长长。口岸进出出口总值值相对腹腹地GDP的弹弹性由2001年的0.84上升至至2006年的的1.62。根据腹地地经济GDP增增长预测测，我们们预计未未来5年年天津口口岸进出出口总值值年复合合增长约约20.1%。。Thisreportisbasedoninformationavailabletothepublic.Norepresentationismadethatitisaccurateorcomplete.Thisdocumentisnotanoffertobuyorsellorasolicitationofanoffertobuyorsellthesecuritiesmentioned.ChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedandothersassociatedwithit(CICC)mayhavepositionsin,andmayeffecttransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesmentionedhereinandmayalsoperformorseektoperforminvestmentbankingservicesforthosecompanies.ThisreportmayalsobemadeavailableinHongKongbyChinaInternationalCapitalCorporation(HongKong)Limitedand/orChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationHongKongSecuritiesLimited.CopyrightofthisdocumentbelongstoCICC.Anyformofunauthorizeddistribution,reproduction,publication,releaseorquotationbyanyinstitutionorindividualisprohibitedwithoutCICC’swrittenpermission.13天津港：：进出口结结构升级级整体利利好集装装箱吞吐吐量的增增长速度度资料来源源:CEIC,中金公司司研究部部2001年～2005年期间间，天津津市进出出口结构构出现较较为明显显的升级级趋势：：机械及及运输设设备进出出口占比比由2001年年的55%上升升至2005年年的63%。天津口岸岸进出口口结构升升级对于于集装箱箱吞吐量量的影响响以正面面为主。。集装箱吞吞吐量增增长相对对进出口口总值的的弹性在在2004年见见底之后后呈现明明显回升升趋势，，预计天天津口岸岸进出口口结构仍仍将继续续升级，，进一步步推动集集装箱吞吞吐量实实现快于于进出口口总值的的增长。。Thisreportisbasedoninformationavailabletothepublic.Norepresentationismadethatitisaccurateorcomplete.Thisdocumentisnotanoffertobuyorsellorasolicitationofanoffertobuyorsellthesecuritiesmentioned.ChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedandothersassociatedwithit(CICC)mayhavepositionsin,andmayeffecttransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesmentionedhereinandmayalsoperformorseektoperforminvestmentbankingservicesforthosecompanies.ThisreportmayalsobemadeavailableinHongKongbyChinaInternationalCapitalCorporation(HongKong)Limitedand/orChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationHongKongSecuritiesLimited.CopyrightofthisdocumentbelongstoCICC.Anyformofunauthorizeddistribution,reproduction,publication,releaseorquotationbyanyinstitutionorindividualisprohibitedwithoutCICC’swrittenpermission.14天津港：：集装箱箱需求强劲劲增长资料来源源:公司数据据，中金金公司研研究部2006年天津津港区在在建的集集装箱项项目主要要包括北北港池一一、二、、三期，，预计2009年全部部建成后后，天津津港区的的集装箱箱吞吐能能力将增增长约2.44倍至1343万TEU左右右。我们预计计天津口口岸集装装箱吞吐吐量将于于“十一一五”期期间年复复合增长长22.2%，，于2010年年达到1,308万TEU，，对产能能利用率率形成强强烈的支支撑。需求的强强劲增长长亦将极极大减少少天津港港股份与与天津港港发展的的竞争风风险。Thisreportisbasedoninformationavailabletothepublic.Norepresentationismadethatitisaccurateorcomplete.Thisdocumentisnotanoffertobuyorsellorasolicitationofanoffertobuyorsellthesecuritiesmentioned.ChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedandothersassociatedwithit(CICC)mayhavepositionsin,andmayeffecttransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesmentionedhereinandmayalsoperformorseektoperforminvestmentbankingservicesforthosecompanies.ThisreportmayalsobemadeavailableinHongKongbyChinaInternationalCapitalCorporation(HongKong)Limitedand/orChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationHongKongSecuritiesLimited.CopyrightofthisdocumentbelongstoCICC.Anyformofunauthorizeddistribution,reproduction,publication,releaseorquotationbyanyinstitutionorindividualisprohibitedwithoutCICC’swrittenpermission.天津港集集装箱吞吞吐量及及产能利利用率15天津港：：天津港集集装箱分分泊位吞吞吐量预预测资料来源源:中金公司司研究部部2006年公司司投资11.7亿元投投资北港港池3期期合资公公司，占占51%股权，，预计于于2008年下下半年投投产，建建成后将将成为港港区最大大的集装装箱项目目。受利于北北港池3期工程程，预计计集装箱箱吞吐量量将于2005～2010年年期间年年复合增增长25.3%至2010年年的694万TEU，，增长速速度快于于整个天天津港区区约3.1个百百分点。。于天津港港区集装装箱吞吐吐量的市市场份额额将由2005年的47%上上升6个个百分点点至2010年年的53%。Thisreportisbasedoninformationavailabletothepublic.Norepresentationismadethatitisaccurateorcomplete.Thisdocumentisnotanoffertobuyorsellorasolicitationofanoffertobuyorsellthesecuritiesmentioned.ChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedandothersassociatedwithit(CICC)mayhavepositionsin,andmayeffecttransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesmentionedhereinandmayalsoperformorseektoperforminvestmentbankingservicesforthosecompanies.ThisreportmayalsobemadeavailableinHongKongbyChinaInternationalCapitalCorporation(HongKong)Limitedand/orChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationHongKongSecuritiesLimited.CopyrightofthisdocumentbelongstoCICC.Anyformofunauthorizeddistribution,reproduction,publication,releaseorquotationbyanyinstitutionorindividualisprohibitedwithoutCICC’swrittenpermission.16天津津港港：：资产产注注入入的的盈盈利利增增厚厚远远超超出出预预期期资料料来来源源:中金金公公司司研研究究部部天津津港港股股份份将将向向天天津津港港集集团团定定向向增增发发不不超超过过2.26亿股股，，用用于于收收购购天天津津港港集集团团未未上上市市运运营营资资产产。。我们们预预计计资资产产收收购购后后，，公公司司2007、、2008年年每每股股盈盈利利分分别别为为0.583元及及0.659元，，对对应应增增厚厚效效应应46%及及58%。。Thisreportisbasedoninformationavailabletothepublic.Norepresentationismadethatitisaccurateorcomplete.Thisdocumentisnotanoffertobuyorsellorasolicitationofanoffertobuyorsellthesecuritiesmentioned.ChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedandothersassociatedwithit(CICC)mayhavepositionsin,andmayeffecttransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesmentionedhereinandmayalsoperformorseektoperforminvestmentbankingservicesforthosecompanies.ThisreportmayalsobemadeavailableinHongKongbyChinaInternationalCapitalCorporation(HongKong)Limitedand/orChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationHongKongSecuritiesLimited.CopyrightofthisdocumentbelongstoCICC.Anyformofunauthorizeddistribution,reproduction,publication,releaseorquotationbyanyinstitutionorindividualisprohibitedwithoutCICC’’swrittenpermission.17天津港：天津港区发展展空间巨大资料来源:公司数据，中中金公司研究究部东疆港区：东东疆港区占地地约30平方公里，其其中10平方公里的地地区为东疆保保税港区，是是我国目前规规模最大的保保税港区。南疆散杂货物物流中心：配配合“北煤南南移”的策略略转移，天津津港集团投资资开发了南疆疆散杂货物流流中心，占地地约13平方方公里。临港工业区：：天津临港工工业区占地面面积将达到150平方公公里，相当于于目前整个天天津港区的1.4倍。预预计到2010年，临港港工业区将实实现销售收入入1000亿亿元，GDP达到300亿元以上。。Thisreportisbasedoninformationavailabletothepublic.Norepresentationismadethatitisaccurateorcomplete.Thisdocumentisnotanoffertobuyorsellorasolicitationofanoffertobuyorsellthesecuritiesmentioned.ChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedandothersassociatedwithit(CICC)mayhavepositionsin,andmayeffecttransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesmentionedhereinandmayalsoperformorseektoperforminvestmentbankingservicesforthosecompanies.ThisreportmayalsobemadeavailableinHongKongbyChinaInternationalCapitalCorporation(HongKong)Limitedand/orChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationHongKongSecuritiesLimited.CopyrightofthisdocumentbelongstoCICC.Anyformofunauthorizeddistribution,reproduction,publication,releaseorquotationbyanyinstitutionorindividualisprohibitedwithoutCICC’swrittenpermission.东疆港区规划划图18天津港：天津港集团资资产储备仍比比较丰富目前集团旗下下主要的未注注入的资产包包括在建的30万吨原油油码头，南疆疆散杂货物流流中心等。目前临港工业业园的股权比比重仍未最终终确定，但我我们预计天津津港集团实现现参股乃至控控股的可能性性仍比较大。。注资完成之后后天津港股份份经营资产所所涉及的面积积仅为1.7平方公里，，而光南疆散散杂货物流中中心面积就有有13平方公公里左右，临临港工业区的的面积更是与与现有经营性性资产的面积积不在一个数数量级。Thisreportisbasedoninformationavailabletothepublic.Norepresentationismadethatitisaccurateorcomplete.Thisdocumentisnotanoffertobuyorsellorasolicitationofanoffertobuyorsellthesecuritiesmentioned.ChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedandothersassociatedwithit(CICC)mayhavepositionsin,andmayeffecttransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesmentionedhereinandmayalsoperformorseektoperforminvestmentbankingservicesforthosecompanies.ThisreportmayalsobemadeavailableinHongKongbyChinaInternationalCapitalCorporation(HongKong)Limitedand/orChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationHongKongSecuritiesLimited.CopyrightofthisdocumentbelongstoCICC.Anyformofunauthorizeddistribution,reproduction,publication,releaseorquotationbyanyinstitutionorindividualisprohibitedwithoutCICC’swrittenpermission.19天津港：A股、H股上上市公司整合合资料来源:公司数据,中金公司研究究部在同一港区两两个上市公司司进行同业竞竞争（集装箱箱业务）的格格局不利于港港区的长期发发展。因此港港口资源整合合具有较大的的必要性。作为国资委系系列的领导及及天津港股份份的董事长，，于汝民先生生上任天津港港发展（商务务委员会系列列公司）的董董事长给市场场强烈的有关关A股、H股股上市公司整整合的暗示。。我们判断在集集团主要资产产注入完成之之后，A、H股整合将有可可能被提上议议事日程。Thisreportisbasedoninformationavailabletothepublic.Norepresentationismadethatitisaccurateorcomplete.Thisdocumentisnotanoffertobuyorsellorasolicitationofanoffertobuyorsellthesecuritiesmentioned.ChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedandothersassociatedwithit(CICC)mayhavepositionsin,andmayeffecttransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesmentionedhereinandmayalsoperformorseektoperforminvestmentbankingservicesforthosecompanies.ThisreportmayalsobemadeavailableinHongKongbyChinaInternationalCapitalCorporation(HongKong)Limitedand/orChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationHongKongSecuritiesLimited.CopyrightofthisdocumentbelongstoCICC.Anyformofunauthorizeddistribution,reproduction,publication,releaseorquotationbyanyinstitutionorindividualisprohibitedwithoutCICC’swrittenpermission.20天津港:高估值不损长期投资资价值资料来源:彭博资讯，中中金公司研究究部天津港目前股股价相当于2007、2008年市盈率（（考虑资产注注入影响）48.3倍及42.7倍，在A股交通基础设设施中处于较较高的水平。。考虑增长率率的PEG水平，天津港港估值仍处于于合理水平。。考虑港区未来来的发展及A、H股整合带来的的投资机会，，我们认为天天津港仍具较较高的投资价价值。进一步的股价价驱动来自A、H股整合活动的的开展。Thisreportisbasedoninformationavailabletothepublic.Norepresentationismadethatitisaccurateorcomplete.Thisdocumentisnotanoffertobuyorsellorasolicitationofanoffertobuyorsellthesecuritiesmentioned.ChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedandothersassociatedwithit(CICC)mayhavepositionsin,andmayeffecttransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesmentionedhereinandmayalsoperformorseektoperforminvestmentbankingservicesforthosecompanies.ThisreportmayalsobemadeavailableinHongKongbyChinaInternationalCapitalCorporation(HongKong)Limitedand/orChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationHongKongSecuritiesLimited.CopyrightofthisdocumentbelongstoCICC.Anyformofunauthorizeddistribution,reproduction,publication,releaseorquotationbyanyinstitutionorindividualisprohibitedwithoutCICC’swrittenpermission.21深赤湾:审慎推荐投资主题:良好的盈利能能力—净资产回报率率居同业之首首。投资青岛港的的可能或将极极大提高上市市公司的成长长潜能。从市盈率来看看，估值具吸吸引力。股息收益率高高于同业。长远来看，招招商局国际对对深圳西部港港区的股权整整合有望给深深赤湾带来进进一步的投资资机会。不利因素:其在深圳以外外地区的投资资仍有不确定定性。Thisreportisbasedoninformationavailabletothepublic.Norepresentationismadethatitisaccurateorcomplete.Thisdocumentisnotanoffertobuyorsellorasolicitationofanoffertobuyorsellthesecuritiesmentioned.ChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedandothersassociatedwithit(CICC)mayhavepositionsin,andmayeffecttransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesmentionedhereinandmayalsoperformorseektoperforminvestmentbankingservicesforthosecompanies.ThisreportmayalsobemadeavailableinHongKongbyChinaInternationalCapitalCorporation(HongKong)Limitedand/orChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationHongKongSecuritiesLimited.CopyrightofthisdocumentbelongstoCICC.Anyformofunauthorizeddistribution,reproduction,publication,releaseorquotationbyanyinstitutionorindividualisprohibitedwithoutCICC’swrittenpermission.22深赤湾湾:较高净净资产产回报报率和和股息息收益益率资料来来源:中金公公司研研究部部预计该该公司司2007年净资资产回回报率率高于于其他他公司司。根据8月10日的收收盘价价,公司今今年股股息收收益率率较盐盐田港港高出出的5.7个百分分点，，是天天津港港的7.3倍。Thisreportisbasedoninformationavailabletothepublic.Norepresentationismadethatitisaccurateorcomplete.Thisdocumentisnotanoffertobuyorsellorasolicitationofanoffertobuyorsellthesecuritiesmentioned.ChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedandothersassociatedwithit(CICC)mayhavepositionsin,andmayeffecttransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesmentionedhereinandmayalsoperformorseektoperforminvestmentbankingservicesforthosecompanies.ThisreportmayalsobemadeavailableinHongKongbyChinaInternationalCapitalCorporation(HongKong)Limitedand/orChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationHongKongSecuritiesLimited.CopyrightofthisdocumentbelongstoCICC.Anyformofunauthorizeddistribution,reproduction,publication,releaseorquotationbyanyinstitutionorindividualisprohibitedwithoutCICC’swrittenpermission.23深赤湾湾:集装箱箱吞吐吐量稳稳步增增长资料来来源:公司数数据,中金公公司研研究部部深赤湾湾今年年上半半年集集装箱箱吞吐吐量增增长了了17%，增增幅低低于上上年同同期和和2005年同期期的33%和21%。赤湾港港区集集装箱箱吞吐吐量增增长放放缓的的原因因是因因其利利用率率正接接近100%。妈湾港港的的吞吐吐量继继续大大增，，得益益于新新泊位位的吞吞吐量量日渐渐攀升升.Thisreportisbasedoninformationavailabletothepublic.Norepresentationismadethatitisaccurateorcomplete.Thisdocumentisnotanoffertobuyorsellorasolicitationofanoffertobuyorsellthesecuritiesmentioned.ChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedandothersassociatedwithit(CICC)mayhavepositionsin,andmayeffecttransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesmentionedhereinandmayalsoperformorseektoperforminvestmentbankingservicesforthosecompanies.ThisreportmayalsobemadeavailableinHongKongbyChinaInternationalCapitalCorporation(HongKong)Limitedand/orChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationHongKongSecuritiesLimited.CopyrightofthisdocumentbelongstoCICC.Anyformofunauthorizeddistribution,reproduction,publication,releaseorquotationbyanyinstitutionorindividualisprohibitedwithoutCICC’swrittenpermission.24深赤湾湾:有望投投资青青岛港港青岛四四方港港区项项目的的设计计吞吐吐能力力为450万TEU，接近近今年年深赤赤湾预预估总总吞吐吐量的的75%。管理层层表示示该投投资仍仍在商商谈中中，尚尚未签签定任任何意意向书书或协协议。。深赤湾湾A股估值值目前前在A股港口口中处处于较较低的的水平平，若若四方方港区区的投投资得得以落落实，，则深深赤湾湾有望望迎来来价值值重估估机会会。Thisreportisbasedoninformationavailabletothepublic.Norepresentationismadethatitisaccurateorcomplete.Thisdocumentisnotanoffertobuyorsellorasolicitationofanoffertobuyorsellthesecuritiesmentioned.ChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedandothersassociatedwithit(CICC)mayhavepositionsin,andmayeffecttransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesmentionedhereinandmayalsoperformorseektoperforminvestmentbankingservicesforthosecompanies.ThisreportmayalsobemadeavailableinHongKongbyChinaInternationalCapitalCorporation(HongKong)Limitedand/orChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationHongKongSecuritiesLimited.CopyrightofthisdocumentbelongstoCICC.Anyformofunauthorizeddistribution,reproduction,publication,releaseorquotationbyanyinstitutionorindividualisprohibitedwithoutCICC’swrittenpermission.25深赤湾湾:招商局局国际际的股股权整整合有望带带来新新投资资机会会深圳大大铲湾湾、广广州南南沙港港的建建设对对深圳圳西部部港区区的经经营带带来较较大的的压力力。招商局局国际际年中中完成成了对对蛇口口港区区股权权的整整合。。长远来来看，，赤湾湾港区区、蛇蛇口港港区、、妈湾湾港区区的股股权整整合有有利于于增强强招商商局国国际所所经营营的深深圳西西部港港区的的竞争争实力力，应应对未未来日日益激激烈的的竞争争。深赤湾湾有望望从招招商局局国际际的股股权整整合中中受益益。Thisreportisbasedoninformationavailabletothepublic.Norepresentationismadethatitisaccurateorcomplete.Thisdocumentisnotanoffertobuyorsellorasolicitationofanoffertobuyorsellthesecuritiesmentioned.ChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedandothersassociatedwithit(CICC)mayhavepositionsin,andmayeffecttransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesmentionedhereinandmayalsoperformorseektoperforminvestmentbankingservicesforthosecompanies.ThisreportmayalsobemadeavailableinHongKongbyChinaInternationalCapitalCorporation(HongKong)Limitedand/orChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationHongKongSecuritiesLimited.CopyrightofthisdocumentbelongstoCICC.Anyformofunauthorizeddistribution,reproduction,publication,releaseorquotationbyanyinstitutionorindividualisprohibitedwithoutCICC’swrittenpermission.资料料来来源源:公司司数数据据,中金金公公司司研研究究部部注：：*为为2008年股股权权结结构构调调整整后后控控股股比比例例深圳圳西西部部港港区区股股权权结结构构图图26深赤赤湾湾：：07年上上半半年年业业绩绩展展望望资料料来来源源:公司司数数据据,中金金公公司司研研究究部部Thisreportisbasedoninformationavailabletothepublic.Norepresentationismadethatitisaccurateorcomplete.Thisdocumentisnotanoffertobuyorsellorasolicitationofanoffertobuyorsellthesecuritiesmentioned.ChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedandothersassociatedwithit(CICC)mayhavepositionsin,andmayeffecttransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesmentionedhereinandmayalsoperformorseektoperforminvestmentbankingservicesforthosecompanies.ThisreportmayalsobemadeavailableinHongKongbyChinaInternationalCapitalCorporation(HongKong)Limitedand/orChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationHongKongSecuritiesLimited.CopyrightofthisdocumentbelongstoCICC.Anyformofunauthorizeddistribution,reproduction,publication,releaseorquotationbyanyinstitutionorindividualisprohibitedwithoutCICC’’swrittenpermission.27中国铁路行业业分析分析员:郑栋2007年8月12日28目录第一章行行业基本面回回顾第二章重重点公司推荐荐Thisreportisbasedoninformationavailabletothepublic.Norepresentationismadethatitisaccurateorcomplete.Thisdocumentisnotanoffertobuyorsellorasolicitationofanoffertobuyorsellthesecuritiesmentioned.ChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedandothersassociatedwithit(CICC)mayhavepositionsin,andmayeffecttransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesmentionedhereinandmayalsoperformorseektoperforminvestmentbankingservicesforthosecompanies.ThisreportmayalsobemadeavailableinHongKongbyChinaInternationalCapitalCorporation(HongKong)Limitedand/orChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationHongKongSecuritiesLimited.CopyrightofthisdocumentbelongstoCICC.Anyformofunauthorizeddistribution,reproduction,publication,releaseorquotationbyanyinstitutionorindividualisprohibitedwithoutCICC’swrittenpermission.29第一章行业基本面回回顾30我国经营性铁铁路可分为国国家铁路、地地方铁路和合合资铁路，截截至2005年，营业里里程分别占全全国铁路营业业里程的82.5%,11.2%及6.3%。国家铁路运输输由铁道部下下辖的18个个铁路局（公公司）和3家家专业运输公公司分路段独独家经营。资料来源：铁铁道部，中金金公司研究部部Thisreportisbasedoninformationavailabletothepublic.Norepresentationismadethatitisaccurateorcomplete.Thisdocumentisnotanoffertobuyorsellorasolicitationofanoffertobuyorsellthesecuritiesmentioned.ChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedandothersassociatedwithit(CICC)mayhavepositionsin,andmayeffecttransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesmentionedhereinandm