100%可再能源情景 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY SCENARIOS SUPPORTING AMBITIOUS POLICY TARGETS

100%RENEWABLEENERGYSCENARIOS

SUPPORTINGAMBITIOUSPOLICY

TARGETS

©IRENA2024

Unlessotherwisestated,materialinthispublicationmaybefreelyused,shared,copied,reproduced,printedand/orstored,providedthatappropriateacknowledgementisgivenofIRENAasthesourceandcopyrightholder.Materialinthispublicationthatisattributedtothirdpartiesmaybesubjecttoseparatetermsofuseandrestrictions,andappropriatepermissionsfromthesethirdpartiesmayneedtobesecuredbeforeanyuseofsuchmaterial.

ISBN:978-92-9260-586-5

Citation:IRENACoalitionforAction(2024),100%renewableenergyscenarios:Supportingambitiouspolicytargets,InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency,AbuDhabi.

AbouttheCoalition

TheIRENACoalitionforActionbringstogetherleadingrenewableenergyplayersfromaroundtheworldwiththecommongoalofadvancingtheuptakeofrenewableenergy.TheCoalitionfacilitatesglobaldialoguesbetweenpublicandprivatesectorstodevelopactionstoincreasetheshareofrenewablesintheglobalenergymixandacceleratetheenergytransition.

Aboutthispublication

Thisbriefexaminesfivecommonlyreferencedenergyscenarios:threefocusedonachieving100%renewablesandtwostrivingfornet-zeroemissions.Itevaluatesandcontraststhesimilaritiesanddifferencesamongthesescenarios,providingpolicyrecommendationsderivedfromtheanalysistosupportambitiouspolicyobjectivesandachieveafullyrenewableenergy-poweredsystembymid-century.

Acknowledgements

ThisreportwascoauthoredbytheCoalitionforActionTowards100%RenewableEnergyWorkingGroup,undertheChairmanshipoftheVice-PresidentoftheEuropeanRenewableEnergiesFederation(EREF),RainerHinrichs-Rahlwes,andtheformerPresidentoftheInternationalSolarEnergySociety(ISES),DaveRenné.

ValuablecontributionswereprovidedbyCoalitionMembers:AnnaStrobl(néeSkowronformerWorldFutureCouncil),LottaPirttimaa(OceanEnergyEurope),StevenVanholme(EKOenergy),AndrzejCeglarz(RenewablesGridInitiative),LenaDente(WorldFuturesCouncil),NamizMusafer(IDEAKandy),JulieDucasse(CAN),Hans-JosefFellandThureTraber(bothEnergyWatchGroup),RehsmiLadwa(GWEC),BenjaminLehner(DMEC),KarimMegherbi(DiiDesertEnergy),MartaMartinez(Iberdrola),BharadwajKummamuru(WorldBioenergyAssociation),GavinAllwright(IWSA),RoquePedace(INFORSE),LeaHayez(RGI),MonicaOliphant(ISES)[nowrepresentingWWEA];andIRENAcolleaguesIlinaRadoslavovaStefanova,JarredMcCarthy,GiedreViskantaite,AsamiMiketa,BilalHussain,JuanPabloJimenezNavarro,JuanJoseGarciaMendez,MichaelTaylor,andAnindyaBhagirath(formerIRENA)underthesupervisionofRabiaFerroukhi(formerDirector,IRENAKnowledge,PolicyandFinanceCentre)andUteCollier(ActingDirector,IRENAKnowledge,PolicyandFinanceCentre).

DesignwasprovidedbyMyrtoPetrou.

TheIRENACoalitionforActionwouldalsoliketoexpressitsgratitudetoalltheTowards100%RenewableEnergyWorkingGroupMemberswhoparticipatedintheeventsanddiscussionsthatinformedthisBrief.

Disclaimer

Thispublicationandthematerialhereinareprovided“asis”.AllreasonableprecautionshavebeentakenbyIRENAandtheIRENACoalitionforActiontoverifythereliabilityofthematerialinthispublication.However,neitherIRENA,theIRENACoalitionforAction,noranyofitsofficials,agents,dataorotherthird-partycontentprovidersprovidesawarrantyofanykind,eitherexpressedorimplied,andtheyacceptnoresponsibilityorliabilityforanyconsequenceofuseofthepublicationormaterialherein.

TheinformationcontainedhereindoesnotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsofallMembersofIRENAorMembersoftheIRENACoalitionfor

Action.Mentionsofspecificcompanies,projectsorproductsdonotimplyanyendorsementorrecommendation.ThedesignationsemployedandthepresentationofmaterialhereindonotimplytheexpressionofanyopiniononthepartofIRENAortheIRENACoalitionforActionconcerningthelegalstatusofanyregion,country,territory,cityorareaorofitsauthorities,orconcerningthedelimitationoffrontiersorboundaries.

Coverphotos:FromlefttorightNewAfrica/S,buffaloboy/S,BELLKAPANG/S,DragonImage/Ss.

100%RENEWABLEENERGYSCENARIOS:SUPPORTINGAMBITIOUSPOLICYTARGETS3

CONTENTS

1.INTRODUCTION 4

2.BACKGROUND 5

3.OVERVIEWOFSCENARIOSANALYSED 6

4.KEYFINDINGS 10

4.1.ELECTRIFICATION 11

4.2.SOLARANDWIND 12

4.3.BIOMASS 12

4.4.OTHERRENEWABLESOURCES 12

4.5.GREENHYDROGEN 13

4.6.TRANSPORT 13

4.7.HEATINGANDCOOLING 14

4.8.SOCIO-ECONOMICASPECTSOFTHESCENARIOS 14

5.SUMMARYANDRECOMMENDATIONSFORPOLICYMAKERS 16

REFERENCES

19

4100%RENEWABLEENERGYSCENARIOS:SUPPORTINGAMBITIOUSPOLICYTARGETS

01INTRODUCTION

InpursuitofthegoalsoftheParisAgreement,net-zeroenergysystemscenariosincorporateabroadrangeofenergysources,primarilydrivenbyrenewablesbutalsoincludingresidualfossilandnuclearenergycombinedwithcarbonremovalstrategiestoprovidepathwaystolimitglobaltemperaturesto1.5°Cofpre-industriallevels.Net-zerosystemscenariosarefundamentallybasedon(i)graduallyphasingoutfossilfuelsandnuclearenergywhilemitigatingsectoralimpacts;and(ii)assumingthattheuseoffossilandnuclear,withcarbonremovalstrategies,wouldstillbeneededduetoperceivedtechnicalchallengestothedecarbonisationandelectrificationofhard-to-abatesectors.

However,withintheenergycommunitytherehasbeenagrowingdebateonthefeasibilityandcredibilityofafully100%renewableenergysystem(definedinBox1).100%renewableenergyscenarioproponentsarguethatthereisgrowingevidencethatsuchanenergysystem,completelydevoidoffossilandnuclearresources,isbothtechnologicallyfeasibleandoffersthelowestcost-andmostenvironmentallysustainable-optionforthedecarbonisationoftheglobalenergysystem.

Bycomparingthree100%renewableenergyscenariosandtwonet-zeroscenarios,thispolicybriefseekstogobeyondthefeasibilityandcredibilitydebateconcerningeachindividualscenario.Rather,thisbriefidentifiesthecommonchallengesandopportunitiesforarapidandholisticshifttowardsmoreambitiousrenewableenergytargets,andprovidesrelatedpolicyrecommendations.Itcallsfordecisionstobetakenandimplementedtodayandidentifiesrequirementstosupporta100%renewableenergysystembymid-century.

Box1TheIRENACoalitionforActionhasagreedthefollowingdefinitionfor100%

renewableenergy:

Renewableenergyencompassesallrenewablesources,includingbioenergy,geothermal,hydropower,ocean,solarandwindenergy.Onehundredpercentrenewableenergymeansthatallsourcesofenergytomeetallend-useenergyneedsinacertainlocation,regionorcountryarederivedfromrenewableenergyresources24hoursperday,everydayoftheyear.Renewableenergycaneitherbeproducedlocallytomeetalllocalend-useenergyneeds(power,heatingandcooling,andtransport)orcanbeimportedfromoutsidetheregionusingsupportivetechnologiesandinstallationssuchaselectricalgrids,hydrogenorheatedwater.Anystoragefacilitiestohelpbalancetheenergysupplymustalsouseenergyderivedonlyfromrenewablesources.

100%RENEWABLEENERGYSCENARIOS:SUPPORTINGAMBITIOUSPOLICYTARGETS5

BACKGROUND02

BasedonthefindingsoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange’s(IPCC)1.5°Creportof2018,andtherecent6thAssessmentReport,orAR6(2023),mitigatingclimatechangetonomorethan1.5°Cabovepre-industriallevelsbytheendofthiscenturywillrequirethecompleteeliminationofallanthropogenicgreenhousegasemissionsby2050,orevenearlier(IPCC,2019,2023).TheAR6reportfurthercallsfor“rapidanddeep,andinmostcases,immediategreenhousegasemissionsreductionsinallsectorsinthisdecade”tolimitglobalwarmingto1.5°C.Giventhatthemajorityofanthropogenicemissionsareduetoenergy-relatedactivities,harnessingrenewableenergytechnologies(solar,wind,hydro,geothermal,bioenergy,ocean,etc.),alongwithsignificantlyincreasedenergyefficiencymeasures,willbekeytotheseemissionreductions(IPCC,2023).Thesemeasureswillalsoprovideadditionalsocietalbenefitssuchasimprovedlocalairqualityand-withadequatepoliciesinplace-willexpandenergyaccessandequity,andstrengthenlocaleconomies.

Evidencefromsomepartsoftheworldsuggeststhattheenergysystemisalreadytransformingintoazero-carbon,distributedsystembasedonadiversemixofrenewableenergysourcesandtechnologies.Forexample,CostaRica,IcelandandUruguayderivemorethan50%oftheirtotalenergysupplyfromrenewables-althoughnotnecessarilyvariablerenewablessuchaswindandsolar(IRENA,2023a,2023b,2023c).In2021,CostaRicademonstratedthata100%renewableelectricitysystemisviablebymeetingmostofitspowerneedswithamixofhydro,windandgeothermal,withrenewablesofferingthelowest-costsolutiontonewandupgradedpowerproduction.Inaddition,significantgainsarebeingmadeinglobalcleanenergyaccessthroughrooftopsolarsystemsandotherdistributedformsofsolarelectricity,increasingelectricvehicleuse,andsectorcouplingofrenewablepowertogreenhydrogenapplications.However,achievinga100%renewableenergysystemrequiressystemicchangesinenergymarketdesignandinfrastructuredevelopment.Long-termdecisionsmustbeimplementedtoday,regardlessofcurrentmarkettrends.Additionally,decisionsareneededtodaytocreateanenablingenvironmentinwhichthe

requiredinfrastructureandcapacityarereadilyavailableaswetransitiontowardsa100%renewable

energyfuture.

●

Acrucialapproachinguidinghowa100%renewableenergysystemcanbeachievedistoexaminevariousenergytransformationscenarios.Overtheyears,avarietyofenergymodelshavebeendevelopedandappliedtoanalysedifferenttransformationpathwaysandcalculatetheimpactsofdifferentpolicyandtechnologyoptions,oftenwiththepurposeofidentifyingtheleast-costapproachforachievinganenergytransformationgoalortarget.Whereasclimatemodelsanalysetheconsequencesofdifferentemissionpathwaysofbothenergy-andnon-energy-relatedgreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsontheglobalclimate,energyscenariosusevariousenergy-relatedmodelsandassumptions,suchascostordeploymentoptimisationtechniquestoidentifyvariouspathwaysforachievingtheendgoal.

6100%RENEWABLEENERGYSCENARIOS:SUPPORTINGAMBITIOUSPOLICYTARGETS

OVERVIEWOF

03SCENARIOS

ANALYSED

Modellingscenariosthattarget100%renewableenergyhavegainedprominenceinthepastdecade,asdescribedinalandmarkpublicationbyKhaliliandBreyer(2022).Intheirpublication,many100%renewableenergyscenariostudiesconductedatnational,regionalandgloballevelswereevaluatedandshowntohaveincreasingreliabilityandcredibilityasmethodsanddataimprove.

Threeenergytransformationscenariosdedicatedtoachieving100%renewableenergyby2050areconsideredhere:TheLappeenranta-LahtiUniversityofTechnology(LUT)Global100%REScenario(Bogdanovetal.,2021);TheUniversityofTechnologySydney(UTS)1.5°CScenarioincludedintheir“AchievingtheParisClimateGoals”Report(Teske,2019);andStanfordUniversity’s100%Wind-Water-Solar(WWS)Scenariothatspecificallycovers145countries(Jacobsonetal.,2022).Thesescenarioswerechosenbecausetheyadheretotheprinciplesof100%renewableenergy,areglobalinscopeandextendtheiranalysisto2050.

Inaddition,twoscenariosthataimfornetzeroby2050byreducinggreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsinordertolimitglobalwarmingto1.5°Carealsoconsidered:theInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA)1.5°CScenario(IRENA,2021)andtheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)Net-ZeroEmissions(NZE)Scenario(IEA,2021).Thesetwoscenariosincludenuclearandfossil-fuelpoweredgenerationaswellascarbonremovalstrategiesaspartofafutureenergymix.Theyalsoincludecarboncaptureandutilisation(CCU),andcarboncaptureandstorage(CCS)technologiesforremovingresidualemissions,aswellasacombinationofthetwo:carboncapture,utilisationandstorage(CCUS).CCUSisexpandedinthescenariostoincludebioenergywithcarboncapture,andstorage(BECCS,incorporatedbyIRENAandIEA),anddirectaircapturewithcarboncaptureandstorage(DACCS,incorporatedbyIEA).Inaddition,CCUcanbepartofa100%renewableenergyScenariowithanon-fossilCO2source,whichisexpandedonintheLUTGlobal100%REScenario,thedistinctionbeingthatCCScannotbepartofa100%renewableenergyscenario(Bogdanovetal.,2021).

Allfivescenariossharethesamemodellinghorizonto2050withintermediatemilestones(e.g.,2030)andtheyallinvolvearapidandlarge-scaledeploymentofrenewableenergysolutions,especiallysolarandwindtechnologies.

100%RENEWABLEENERGYSCENARIOS:SUPPORTINGAMBITIOUSPOLICYTARGETS7

Theauthorsofthispolicybriefrecognisethatmanyofthesestudieshavebeenupdatedsincetheiroriginalpublication.Nevertheless,thekeyfindingsfromeachscenarioremainlargelyunchangedintheupdatedstudies.Furthermore,toreiterate,themainobjectiveofthispolicybriefistoidentifyoverarchingpolicyrecommendationsthatcanbederivedfromundertakingnetzeroand100%renewableenergyscenarioanalyses.Accordingtothescenarios’authors,100%renewableenergy-orveryhighsharesofrenewables-iswhatpolicyanddecision-makersshouldstrivefor.The100%renewableenergystudiesfoundthistobe,forthemostpart,thelowercostoptionforastableandreliableenergysupplyinlinewiththeobjectiveoflimitingglobalwarmingto1.5°C,whichwillbefurtherelaboratedinSection5.

Moreover,theauthorsofthispolicybriefacknowledgetherearesomelimitationstosuchanalyses.Forexample,recenteventsunforeseenbytheauthors,includingCOVID-19andtherelatedenergycrisis,arenotreflectedintheseScenarios.Moreover,thedirectcomparisonofsomeinputassumptionsandoutputsisdifficultsincethemodelsusedifferentsetsofindicators.Tothisend,Table1providesagenericoverview,representingcommonalitiesacrossallscenariosorganisedintermsoftargets,inputs,methodologiesusedandkeyoutcomes.Figure1detailstheenvisionedtotalenergymixesforeachscenarioby2050.Whiletheauthorsof100%renewableenergyscenariosmightuseslightlydifferentterminology,forconsistencythedefinitionsforthetermsusedforthispolicybriefarespecifiedinBox2.

Box2Definitions

Finalenergyconsumption(FEC)referstoallfuelandenergydeliveredtousersfortheirenergyuse.FECincludessecondaryenergy,i.e.afterconversionprocessesandrelatedlosses,andtheforminwhichenergyismadeavailableforfinalconsumption(e.g.electricity,heat,biofuels,gasolineanddiesel;butalsocoal,naturalgasandbiomassiftheyareusedforheatingorotherdirectuses).FECdoesnotincludenon-energyusesoffossilandbiomassresourcessuchasthefeedstocktothechemicalindustryforplasticsandbioplasticsproduction,whichwouldbeconsideredtotalfinalenergyconsumption(TFEC).

Totalenergysupply(TES)consistsofprimaryenergyproductionandprimaryandsecondaryenergyimportssubtractingenergyexports,internationalbunkersandstockchanges.

Totalprimaryenergydemand(TPED)referstoprimaryenergy,i.e.,theformofenergythatfirstappearsintheenergybalance,beforeconversionprocessesandrelatedlosses(e.g.,crudeoil,coal,naturalgas,biomass).

Source:UNInternationalrecommendationsforenergystatistics(IRES,2018),(IRENA,2013).

8100%RENEWABLEENERGYSCENARIOS:SUPPORTINGAMBITIOUSPOLICYTARGETS

Table1

Overviewofscenariosanalysed

ENERGY

SYSTEM

MODEL

GLOBAL

100%RE

1.5°CSCENARIO

100%WIND-

WATER-SOLAR

(WWS)

1.5°CSCENARIO

NET-ZERO

EMISSIONS(NZE)

Institution

LUT(2021)

UTS(2019)

Stanford(2022)

IRENA(2021)

IEA(2021)

Target(s)

100%renewableenergysystemby2050

Achieving1.5˚Cby2050withprimaryenergy

supplybasedon100%renewableenergy

80%WWSby2030;

100%WWSby2050for145countries

Energytransition

pathwayaligned

withthe1.5°Ctarget

(netzeroby2050)

Netzeroby2050

Renewable

energyshareintotalenergysupply(TES)by2050

100%

100%(<92%,including

non-energyconsumption,whichwillstillinclude

fossilfuels.Primary

energysupplyin2050willbebasedon100%renewableenergy)

100%

74%intotalenergy

supply(90%inelectricitygeneration)

67%intotalenergy

supply(88%inelectricitygeneration)

Energy

sources

includedin

2050

Solarphotovoltaic(PV),concentratedsolarpower(CSP),wind,hydropower,geothermaland

bioenergy

TPED:solar,wind,hydro,geothermal,biomass,

oceanenergy(tidalandwave),naturalgas,oil,coal(latterduetonon-energyconsumption)

Generation:wind,solarPV,CSP,geothermal,hydro

andoceanenergy.

Heat:solarthermal,

geothermalheat

TES:solar,wind,biogas,biomass,hydropower,

geothermal,solar,oceanenergy,naturalgas,oil,coalandnuclear

TES:solar,bioenergy,

wind,hydropower,

geothermal,other

renewables,nuclear,

naturalgas,oilandcoal.

2050share

ofelectricity(electrificationlevel)

89%(totalprimaryenergydemand)

92.3%(totalfinalenergydemand)

Efficiencymeasuresresultintotalenergydemand

decreasingby56.4%,sothatremainingenergyisnearlyall(~99.1%)

electricity:85%higherthan2018actuallevels(totalinstalledcapacity)

51%ofdirectelectricityintotalfinalenergy

consumptionand14%fromhydrogen

49%ofelectricityintotalfinalenergyconsumption

Cumulative

investment

neededto

2050

USD72trillion,

notingnetenergeticyieldperinvested

unitofcapitalin

renewableelectricitysolutionsfarexceedstheoneinupstreamfossilfuels

USD51trillionacrossthepowersector(anaverageinvestmentofUSD1420billionperyear,2015-

2050)

USD12.4trillionfor

theheatingsector(an

averageinvestmentof

USD344billionperyear,2015-2050)

AroundUSD61.5trillion

Upfrontcostsare

recoveredthroughenergysales,coveringWWS

electricity;heatandgreenhydrogengeneration;

storageforelectricity,

heating,coolingand

greenhydrogen;districtheatingheatpumps;all-distancetransmission;anddistribution

USD131trillion

(annualfunding

requirementaveraging

USD4.4trillion),adaptedfromplannedgovernmentcumulativeenergy

andenergyrelated

infrastructureinvestmentstrategiesamountingtoUSD98trillionby2050

Annualaveragecapitalinvestedisindicatedfor2030-2040-2050:

-40-50trillionUSD,

annualinvestmentsof4-5trillionperyearby2030

-AlmostUSD5trillionannuallyby2040

-USD4.5trillionannuallyby2050

Jobcreation

134millionby2050intheglobalenergysector*

47.8millionenergy-sectorjobsby2050

(upto89%wouldbe

renewableenergyjobsby2030)

28.4million(netincrease)by2050

122millionjobsintheglobalenergysector:

-43milliondirectlyinrenewableenergy

-25millioninpowergridsandflexibility

-25millioninenergyefficiency

-2.24millioninhydrogen

30millionmorepeopleunderNZEworkingincleanenergy,efficiencyandlow-emissions

technologies.

*(Ram,etal.,2022).

1.5°CSCENARIO(UTS)

8%

16%

19%

19%

33%

4%

1%

WWS(STANFORD)

1%

3%

5%

45%

46%

Solar

SolarPV

SolarCSP

Hydropower

Oceanenergy

Bioenergy

Geothermal

Windenergy

Naturalgas

Nuclear

Oil

Fossil

Coal

Otherrenewables

Othernon-renewables

100%RENEWABLEENERGYSCENARIOS:SUPPORTINGAMBITIOUSPOLICYTARGETS9

Figure1

ComparedenergyScenariosandtheirtotalenergysupplyin2050

GLOBAL100%RE(LUT)

2%

3%

18%

69%

6%

2%

6%

2%

9%

4%

1.5°CIRENA

25%

16%

13%

17%

6%

1%

1%

NZE(IEA)

11%

8%

6%

20%

16%

19%

11%

6%

3%

10100%RENEWABLEENERGYSCENARIOS:SUPPORTINGAMBITIOUSPOLICYTARGETS

04KEYFINDINGS

AllscenarioscoveredinSection3areinlinewitha1.5°Ctargetbymid-century.ThisisthepreferredtargetsetbytheParisClimateAccordof2015(UN,2015).Detailsofwhattheseemissionreductionpathwayscouldlooklikeovertimewerepublishedinthe2018IPCCSpecialReport,GlobalWarmingof1.5°C(IPCC,2019).Allthescenariosexaminedcallfor:

1.energyrelatedGHGemissionstofalltozero(orNetZero)by2050,ifnotearlier;

2.arapidreductionofemissionstoabouthalfofthecurrentlevelsbytheyear2030,consistentwiththeIPCCAR6report(IPCC,2023);and

3.energyefficiencymeasurestobesignificantlyincreased,sothatpercapitaenergyintensityandtotalfinalenergyconsumption(TFEC)arelowerby2050thancurrently,evenastheglobalpopulationgrows.

Variousstepstoachievetheseend-useenergyreductionsaresuggested,suchasgreatlyimprovedefficienciesinbuildingdesignandretrofits,expandeduseofheatpumptechnologies,anddemand-sidemanagementstrategies.

TheIEA’sNZEandIRENA’s1.5°CScenarioincludecarbonremovalstrategies,thus,allowingforcontinuedinfrastructurefor,andexploitationof,fossilresourcestoalimitedextent.The100%renewableenergyscenariosdifferinthemilestonesandexacttechnologyandresourcesmix,buttheydonotallowforotherthanrenewableenergysourcesby2050orsoonafter.Additionally,thethree100%renewableenergyscenariosstartfromtheassumptionthatfromacertainyearonwardsonlyrenewablesourcesshouldbeused.Insum,the100%renewableenergyscenariosrequirehighersystemflexibilityonthedemandandsupplysideandthereforevariousstorageandflexibilityoptions.

Thissectionfocusesonthekeyfindingsfromthe100%renewableenergyscenarios;similaritiesandrelevantdifferencescomparedwiththenet-zerostudieswillalsobehighlighted(furtherdetailingthedifferencesprovidedinTable1andFigure1).Thesucceedingsectionwillprovideasummarywithrecommendationsforpolicymakers.

100%RENEWABLEENERGYSCENARIOS:SUPPORTINGAMBITIOUSPOLICYTARGETS11

4.1.Electrification

PerhapsthemostimportantcommonfindingamongallscenariosisthatelectricityinTFECwillgrowsubstantiallyoverthenext30years,inpartduetotheelectrificationoftheindustrial,transportandbuildingsectorsaswellasduetoageneralincreaseinelectricgoodsworldwideandanoverallincreaseinsectorcouplingapplications.Dependingonthescenario,electrificationwillprovideanywherefrom50%tomorethan90%ofTFECby2050,comparedtoaround20%in2022(IEA,n.d.).Consequently,thereisaneedtobuildasignificantamountofnewelectricitycapacityandenablinginfrastructuretocovertheneedsofthesesectors.

TheLUTGlobal100%REScenario(Bogdanovetal.,2021);UTS1.5°CScenarioincludedintheirAchievingtheParisClimateGoalsreport(Teske,2019);andStanfordUniversity’s100%WWSScenario(Jacobsonetal.,2022)specifythattheelectrificationofallenergysectorscanbeachievedwithouttheneedforanyfossil-fuel-poweredgenerators.Theelectrificationoftransportandheatingareconsistentacrossallthreescenarios,withafocusonelectrifyingthetransportsectorbyreplacinginternalcombustionengine(ICE)vehicleswithelectricvehicles(EVs).TheIRENA1.5°CScenariostatesthat49%ofthetransportsectorwillbeelectrifiedby2050.

Withelectricityinherentlybeingthemain‘energycarrier’ofthefutureinallscenarios,aresultingsubstantialincreaseinelectricitydemandby2050isexpected.TheGlobal100%REScenariosuggeststhat90%ofTPEDwillbemetbyelectricityin2050(Bogdanovetal.,2021).Thisscenarioanticipatesthatelectricitydemandwillincreasesubstantiallyby2050withthegreatestincreasecomingfromend-usesectorsintransportandindustry.Inthisregard,theGlobal100%REScenarioisconsistentwithIEA’sNZEandIRENA’s1.5°CScenario.Incomparison,theWWSScenario(Jacobsonetal.,2022)assumesanear-totalelectrificationofTFEC,withonlyasmallportionachievedthroughsolarthermalandgeothermalheat.

Intermsofenergyefficiency,theWWSScenarioassumesthatefficiencymeasuresaswellasareductionintraditionalfossil-relatedindustrydemandswillreducetheoveralldemandforenergyby56.4%by2050(Jacobsonetal.,2022).TheUTS1.5°CScenarioalsoassumesmorethan50%reductioninfinalenergydemandworldwideduetoefficiencyandconservationmeasures(Teske,2019).TheGlobal100%REScenarioanticipatesa49%efficiencyimprovementintheratioofTFECtoTPEDfrom2015to2050(Bogdanovetal.,2021).Allscenarios,particularlythe100%renewableenergyscenarios,assumethatthetotalenergydemandwilldecreaseowingtoenergyefficiencyimprovementsby2050.

Theoverallrapidexpansionoftheelectricitysectorandthegrowthofvariablerenewableenergy(VRE)

sourceswilldemandatransformationofthetransmissionanddistributioncapabilitiesofthegrid.This

willrequirelargeinvestmentstoexpandandenhancethegridleadingtosmartandhighlydigitalized

grids;e.g.,upgradesincontrolandmonitoringofgrids.Additionalstoragecapacitiesandvariousstorage

technologieswillalsoberequired.TheUTS1.5°CScenario,forexample,underscoresthatashort-term

largequantityofover244GWofhydro-pumpedstorageand12GWofbatterystorageby2030mustbe

installedtosupportthemajorexpansionofsolarPV(Teske,2019).

Finally,sectorcouplingisanimportantrequirementtomatchVREandflexibledemand,particularlyviahydrogenproduction,electricvehiclesandspaceheatingdemand.Powerquality,reliabilityandsecurityrequirementdemandsbyconsumersareincreasing.Yet,asmoredistributedandvariablesourcesarebeingtiedintothegridthesefactorscanpotentiallybenegativelyimpacted.Gridflexibility,achievedthroughstoragetechnologiescoveringtimescalesfromhourlytodailytoseasonally,demand-sidemanagementoftheload,andregionalpower