房地产行业周报：市场逐渐走向温和理性-130305.ppt

20130223-20130301,2013,3,4 s1010510120047 s1010512080008,38.4% 2013,44%,11%,2012,10,5%,jan,feb,mar,apr,may,jun,jul,sep,oct,nov,dec,jan,feb,mar,may,jun,jul,aug,sep,oct,dec,jan,feb,mar,apr,may,jun,aug,sep,oct,nov,dec,jan,mar,apr,may,jun,jul,aug,sep,nov,dec,jan,feb,mar,apr,may,jul,aug,sep,oct,nov,dec,jan,20130223-20130301 1,250 200,194 190,226 228,203,224,150,162 160,150 146,164,128,119 125 126,152 153,139,155,135,100 50,74,31,69,4,6,3,3,5,10 13,0,1/30,2/1,2/3,2/5,2/7,2/9,2/11,2/13,2/15,2/17,2/19,2/21,2/23,2/25,2/27,wind 2 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0,2008 2011,11,-12,2009,2010,2011,2012,49,2013,30 wind,3,15,2011,12,31,=1,1.10 1.05 1.00 0.95,15,0.90,1/1 1/26 2012,2/20,3/16,4/10,5/5,5/30,6/24,7/19,8/13,9/7,10/2 10/27 11/21 12/16 1/10,2/4,15 15 wind 1,20130223-20130301 4 70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00,0.00 11/01/10,11/04/10,11/07/10,11/10/10,12/01/10,12/04/10,12/07/10,12/10/10,13/01/10,1,wind,50%,0216-0222,50%,0223-0301,50%,2012,2013,2012,2013,27,392 37,969 20,492 6,550 92,403 11,218 47,293 36,332 21,268 28,214 16,694 16,731 6,007 17,485 1,165 5,705 4,054 28,138 8,586 248,890 4,936 1,434 22,660 17,339 12,374 3,724 14,121 16,422 6,798 2,912,32,591 32,605 26,731 9,022 100,950 8,754 70,320 27,987 26,781 43,338 20,410 18,952 6,325 15,908 12,598 7,347 14,710 15,584 13,938 302,952 4,260 3,099 18,370 19,753 9,052 18,521 10,815 12,929 4,759 4,205,19.0% -14.1% 30.4% 37.7% 9.2% -22.0% 48.7% -23.0% 25.9% 53.6% 22.3% 13.3% 5.3% -9.0% 981.0% 28.8% 262.9% -44.6% 62.3% 21.7% -13.7% 116.2% -18.9% 13.9% -26.8% 397.4% -23.4% -21.3% -30.0% 44.4%,n.a. 3939.2% 1610.7% 5758.6% 3899.8% 3077.1% 2011.0% 1976.3% 1722.7% 3300.7% n.a. 9175.7% 3727.1% n.a. 34149.3% 27980.7% 1586.6% 1718.2% 1278.8% 2686.8% n.a. n.a. n.a. 1292.4% n.a. n.a. 7377.7% n.a. 4127.3% 358.6%,38,300 48,895 28,926 10,218 126,338 17,663 63,601 31,912 28,008 28,492 22,859 19,760 5,020 64,276 2,094 5,908 3,487 49,675 10,099 352,852 5,776 1,987 28,796 12,893 19,072 4,757 11,416 30,420 8,235 2,293,46,919 65,432 60,506 14,735 187,592 23,929 88,265 47,704 41,782 37,617 35,666 30,144 15,369 35,591 9,774 10,035 15,674 23,104 19,153 433,805 9,665 3,488 29,074 18,867 17,240 16,117 23,152 24,167 8,994 4,699,22.5% 33.8% 109.2% 44.2% 48.5% 35.5% 38.8% 49.5% 49.2% 32.0% 56.0% 52.6% 206.1% -44.6% 366.7% 69.9% 349.5% -53.5% 89.6% 22.9% 67.3% 75.5% 1.0% 46.3% -9.6% 238.8% 102.8% -20.6% 9.2% 104.9%,44.0% 100.7% 126.3% 63.3% 85.8% 173.3% 25.5% 70.5% 56.0% -13.2% 74.7% 59.1% 143.0% 123.7% -22.4% 36.6% 6.6% 48.2% 37.4% 43.2% 126.9% 12.5% 58.3% -4.5% 90.5% -13.0% 114.1% 86.9% 89.0% 11.7%,2,38.75%,40,20,20130223-20130301,0216-0222,0223-0301,2012,2013,2012,2013,8,804 610 4,456 2,101 2,012 23,616 3,222 11,146 1,985 1,162 5,342 4,307 10,150 6,148 12,985 200,767 542,060,2,540 596 6,439 12,283 4,016 7,722 4,384 23,658 2,501 4,099 7,102 10,033 11,084 22,133 31,075 255,428 659,330,-71.1% -2.3% 44.5% 484.6% 99.6% -67.3% 36.1% 112.3% 26.0% 252.9% 32.9% 133.0% 9.2% 260.0% 139.3% 27.2% 21.6%,n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 9751.4% 4024.0%,10,664 1,125 2,822 1,471 1,328 10,559 2,686 6,225 1,791 1,769 6,969 5,859 7,215 5,288 15,816 207,232 686,422,7,066 2,436 9,901 9,747 5,274 11,014 5,045 41,827 3,223 4,550 9,187 9,897 12,686 19,817 21,162 328,293 949,690,-33.7% 116.6% 250.9% 562.8% 297.1% 4.3% 87.8% 571.9% 80.0% 157.2% 31.8% 68.9% 75.8% 274.7% 33.8% 58.4% 38.4%,178.2% 308.8% 53.8% -20.6% 31.3% 42.6% 15.1% 76.8% 28.9% 11.0% 29.4% -1.4% 14.5% -10.5% -31.9% 28.5% 44.0%,wind 5,120 100 80 60,172.12% 84.21% 70.17%,200% 150% 100%,44.08% 41.98%,23.57% 50%,0,1201 1202 1203 1204 1205 1206 1207 1208 1209 1210 1211 1212 1301 1302 wind,0%,2,2011,12,31,=1,2013/2/22 0.56 0.76 0.70 0.81 0.73 1.48 1.14 1.52 1.03 0.88 0.33 2.36 1.14 7.86 0.64 1.07 0.85 4.55 0.98 1.24,2013/2/23 0.74 0.88 0.46 0.80 0.77 1.58 0.82 0.42 0.96 0.39 0.13 0.00 0.42 3.20 0.39 0.85 0.69 1.72 1.11 1.08,2013/2/24 0.47 0.47 0.38 0.68 0.47 0.83 0.58 0.36 0.59 0.20 0.35 1.19 0.58 4.73 0.21 0.37 0.46 0.41 0.87 0.68,2013/2/25 0.61 1.05 0.93 0.95 0.94 1.92 1.41 0.91 1.18 1.19 0.69 2.04 1.19 10.23 1.01 2.01 0.64 4.63 1.49 1.18,2013/2/26 0.69 0.92 1.11 1.18 1.02 2.13 1.45 0.86 1.68 1.11 0.54 1.71 1.45 7.22 1.37 1.60 0.75 5.48 1.41 1.31,2013/2/27 0.78 1.23 1.13 1.26 1.18 2.35 1.59 1.67 1.36 1.02 0.48 2.35 1.59 6.90 1.39 1.71 0.92 3.09 1.77 1.34,2013/2/28 1.03 1.75 1.27 1.41 1.34 2.98 1.99 1.49 1.49 0.93 0.49 3.62 1.49 7.18 2.08 2.15 0.89 4.01 2.25 1.61,3,11,12,10,1,6,4,9,2,5,3,7,8,12,1,13,11,11,1,3,5,7,9,1,3,5,7,9,1,08,08,09,09,10,08,10,11,10,11,12,20130223-20130301,2013/2/22 1.07,2013/2/23 1.08,2013/2/24 0.46,2013/2/25 1.49,2013/2/26 1.41,2013/2/27 1.71,2013/2/28 2.15,wind,6,34,2011,7,6,08,/,3.0,4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000,250% 200% 150% 100% 50%,2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0,0,cric,0%,cric,3,2011,12,31,=1,feb-12 0.96 0.98 0.93 1.01 0.95 0.98 0.97,mar-12 0.99 1.04 0.89 1.03 0.88 1.00 1.02,apr-12 1.00 1.00 0.96 1.03 0.89 1.00 1.06,may-12 1.03 0.97 0.90 1.03 0.95 0.99 1.03,jun-12 1.01 0.95 0.85 1.00 0.90 1.01 1.02,jul-12 1.00 0.94 0.90 0.99 0.84 1.00 0.99,aug-12 1.03 0.92 0.89 0.98 0.84 1.00 1.01,sep-12 1.09 0.99 0.98 1.04 0.89 1.09 1.08,oct-12 1.06 1.00 0.97 1.08 0.85 1.08 1.04,nov-12 1.05 0.96 1.16 1.08 0.85 1.07 1.06,dec-12 1.03 0.96 1.22 1.11 0.82 1.02 1.04,jan-13 0.96 0.87 1.16 1.07 0.78 1.05 1.01,feb-13 0.92 0.83 1.06 1.04 0.73 1.02 0.97,1.00,0.94,0.90,0.91,0.94,0.93,0.93,1.05,1.08,1.11,0.98 1.00 1.07 0.90 0.94 0.93,0.96 0.99 1.07 0.99 0.98 0.90,0.97 0.99 1.08 1.10 1.03 0.94,0.98 0.99 1.07 1.06 0.97 0.90,0.99 0.98 1.25 1.08 0.94 0.87,1.00 0.97 1.23 1.16 0.92 0.86,0.99 1.00 1.23 1.05 0.83 0.88,1.00 1.03 1.21 1.15 0.91 0.90,0.99 1.04 1.17 0.99 0.87 0.83,1.06 1.04 1.16 0.99 0.85 0.86,1.06 1.06 1.15 0.99 0.83 0.92,1.06 1.03 1.19 1.03 0.88 0.86,1.04 1.02 1.18 0.91 0.84 0.87,1.05 0.88,0.89 0.89,0.84 0.93,0.86 0.94,0.98 0.97,0.95 0.99,0.97 0.97,0.90 0.98,1.07 1.00,1.00 1.02,1.02,1.00,0.98,0.97,1.24 1.06 1.21,1.74 1.14 1.21,1.77 1.15 1.20,1.93 1.14 1.19,2.08 1.13 1.14,2.07 1.12 1.13,2.31 1.12 1.12,2.25 1.16 1.14,2.27 1.12 1.14,2.27 1.11,2.63 1.15 1.24,1.20 0.74 1.24 1.06 1.76,1.12 0.75 1.21 0.68 1.81,1.15 0.71 1.19 0.66 1.81,1.18 0.69 1.17 0.70 1.81,1.17 0.67 1.14 0.66 1.77,1.14 1.14 1.14 0.64 1.87,1.13 1.24 1.29 0.66 1.82,1.05 1.18 1.21 0.64 1.90,1.18 1.17 1.26 0.68 1.89,1.14 1.21 1.28 0.64 1.89,1.20 1.16 1.37 0.80 2.68,1.56 0.93,1.59 wind 4,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,10,11,12,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,11,7,11,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,10,11,12,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,10,12,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,7,10,12,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,7,0801,0803,0805,0807,0809,0811,0901,0903,0905,0907,0909,0911,1001,1003,1005,1007,1009,1011,1101,1103,1105,1107,1109,1111,1201,1203,1205,1207,1209,1211,1301,20130223-20130301,8,40,3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 9,wind,10,70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0,120,000,2011,2012,2013,30,000,2011,2012,2013,100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 11,wind,25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 12,wind,140,000,2011,2012,2013,80,000,2011,2012,2013,120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0,70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0,wind,wind,cric,5,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,10,11,12,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1,7,7,7,11,7,11,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,10,12,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,10,11,12,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,10,12,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,7,.,.,20130223-20130301,13,14,60,000 50,000 40,000,2011,2012,2013,40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000,2011,2012,2013,30,000 20,000 10,000 0 15,wind,20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 16,wind,100,000 80,000,2011,2012,2013,160,000 140,000 120,000,2011,2012,2013,60,000 40,000 20,000 0,wind,100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0,wind,4,2,18,-2,24,a,(,),(,),(,/,),(,),(,),(,/,),1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1,8,5469 4379 2201 3019 1938 10405 3687 2187 952 2259 14700,23357.77 18246.14 8692.61 7346.02 7332.48 18902.43 6107.3 3158.56 2764.9 2156.67 14194.83,42707 41667 39485 24334 37835 18166 16564 14442 29058 9548 9656,1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1,5395 3612 4452 3186 3587 24744 9199 1463 2512 703 4660,3236.83 2889.57 2670.92 2389.46 2044.46 5968.22 5418.11 4795.89 4018.59 2820.11 14067.3,6000 8000 6000 7500 5700 2412 5890 32783 16000 40099 30187,2 3 4 5 1 2,2253 1988 1510 2663 9449 12962,1487.77 4813.3 3043.48 4878.81 21769.98 17655.46,6604 24214 20159 18318 23039 13621,2 3 4 5 1 2,1,5730 4319 2757 2296 2766 6024,12361.6 8540.06 8498.35 8274.93 14261.1 4455.61,21575 19771 30829 36038 51560 7397,6,20130223-20130301,( ),(,),( / ),( ),(,),(,/ ),3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5,5277 3731 6641 20316 4703 4158 3681 1365 2658 1650 1736 1118 1181 36067 11113 6412 7380 3566,10093.6 9229.24 8391.76 17268.61 6584.42 5613.48 3843.19 3002.96 2338.84 2310.11 2289.64 1743.38 1299.14 28853.78 7779.19 6732.37 6494.44 5349,19128 24739 12637 8500 14000 13500 10442 22000 8800 14000 13192 15600 11000 8000 7000 10500 8800 15000,3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5,3704 5595 3310 8872 12802 5918 12283 9868 20923 16207 4105 19788 7551 59121 11059 7851 7619 2141,3531.8 3168.41 3020.26 9758.8 8577.03 7610.79 7492.64 6808.71 27773.2 19957.4 16669.1 14939.9 14928.8 10171.2 8206.75 4973.34 4631.52 4050.88,9535 5663 9126 11000 6700 12861 6100 6900 13274 12314 40603 7550 19770 1720 7421 6335 6079 18918,5,nav,nav,11a,eps 12e,13e,14e,11a,pe 12e,13e,14e,7.13,7.63,-6.55%,0.67,0.68,0.73,0.79,10.6,10.5,9.8,9.0,a,12.04 12.63 28.18,11.80 18.57 32.42,2.03% -31.99% -13.08%,0.88 0.92 1.51,1.14 1.18 2.02,1.47 1.63 2.87,1.79 2.21 3.60,13.7 13.8 18.7,10.6 10.7 14.0,8.2 7.7 9.8,6.7 5.7 7.8,-12.40%,14.2,11.4,8.9,7.3,10.76 3.95 12.06 14.48 6.54 9.74 3.95 8.67,18.79 4.79 13.62 13.76 7.19 13.00 7.36 15.15,-42.74% -17.54% -11.45% 5.23% -9.04% -25.08% -46.33% -42.77%,1.26 0.23 0.80 0.82 0.68 0.58 0.23 0.73,1.21 0.39 1.09 1.13 0.91 0.94 0.29 0.91,1.41 0.31 1.40 1.49 0.78 1.46 0.42 1.02,1.93 0.42 1.46 1.98 1.14 1.48 0.52 1.36,8.5 17.2 15.1 17.7 9.6 16.8 17.2 11.9,8.9 10.1 11.1 12.8 7.2 10.4 13.6 9.5,7.6 12.7 8.6 9.7 8.4 6.7 9.4 8.5,5.6 9.4 8.3 7.3 5.7 6.6 7.6 6.4,wind,-23.71% -19.94% 2013,3,1,14.2 14.2,10.4 10.8,9.0 8.9,7.1 7.2,7,-,“,”,analyst certification i ii the analysts primarily responsible for the preparation o