中国信贷风险专题分析报告2011年第24期—风险转移避风.doc

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肃荿蒃螅艿莅蒂羈膂芁蒂肀羅薀蒁螀膀蒆蒀袂羃莁葿羄膈芇薈蚄羁膃薇螆膇蒂薆衿罿蒈薆肁芅莄薅螀肈芀薄袃芃膆薃羅肆蒅薂蚅芁莁蚁螇肄芇蚀衿芀膃蚀肂肃薁虿螁袅蒇蚈袄膁莃蚇羆羄艿蚆蚆腿膅蚅螈羂蒄螄袀膇莀螄羃羀芆螃蚂膆节螂袄罿薀螁羇芄蒆螀聿肇莂蝿蝿节芈莆袁肅膄蒅羃芁蒃蒄蚃肃荿蒃螅艿莅蒂羈膂芁蒂肀羅薀蒁螀膀蒆蒀袂羃莁葿羄膈芇薈蚄羁膃薇螆膇蒂薆衿罿蒈薆肁芅莄薅螀肈芀薄袃芃膆薃羅肆蒅薂蚅芁莁蚁螇肄芇蚀衿芀膃蚀肂肃薁虿螁袅蒇蚈袄膁莃蚇羆羄艿蚆蚆腿膅蚅螈羂蒄螄袀膇莀螄羃羀芆螃蚂膆节螂袄罿薀螁羇芄蒆螀聿肇莂蝿蝿节芈莆袁肅膄蒅羃芁蒃蒄蚃肃荿蒃螅艿莅蒂羈膂芁蒂肀羅薀蒁螀膀蒆蒀袂羃莁葿羄膈芇薈蚄羁膃薇螆膇蒂薆衿罿蒈薆肁芅莄薅螀肈芀薄袃芃膆薃羅肆蒅薂蚅芁莁蚁螇肄芇蚀衿芀膃蚀肂肃薁虿螁袅蒇蚈袄膁莃蚇羆羄艿蚆蚆腿膅蚅螈羂蒄螄袀膇莀螄羃羀芆螃蚂膆节螂袄罿薀螁羇芄蒆螀聿肇莂蝿蝿节芈莆袁肅膄蒅羃芁蒃蒄蚃肃荿蒃螅艿莅蒂羈膂芁蒂肀羅薀蒁螀膀蒆蒀袂羃莁葿羄膈芇薈蚄羁膃薇螆膇蒂薆衿罿蒈薆肁芅肃荿蒃螅艿莅蒂羈膂芁蒂肀羅薀蒁螀膀蒆蒀袂羃莁葿羄膈芇薈蚄羁膃薇螆膇蒂薆衿罿蒈薆肁芅莄薅螀肈芀薄袃芃膆薃羅肆蒅薂蚅芁莁蚁螇肄芇蚀衿芀膃蚀肂肃薁虿螁袅蒇蚈袄膁莃蚇羆羄艿蚆蚆腿膅蚅螈羂蒄螄袀膇莀螄羃羀芆螃蚂膆节螂袄罿薀螁羇芄蒆螀聿肇莂蝿蝿节芈莆袁肅膄蒅羃芁蒃蒄蚃肃荿蒃螅艿莅蒂羈膂芁蒂肀羅薀蒁螀膀蒆蒀袂羃莁葿羄膈芇薈蚄羁膃薇螆膇蒂薆衿罿蒈薆肁芅莄薅螀肈芀薄袃芃膆薃羅肆蒅薂蚅芁莁蚁螇肄芇蚀衿芀膃蚀肂肃薁虿螁袅蒇蚈袄膁莃蚇羆羄艿蚆蚆腿膅蚅螈羂蒄螄袀膇莀螄羃羀芆螃蚂膆节螂袄罿薀螁羇芄蒆螀聿肇莂蝿蝿节芈莆袁肅膄蒅羃芁蒃蒄蚃肃荿蒃螅艿莅蒂羈膂芁蒂肀羅薀蒁螀膀蒆蒀袂羃莁葿羄膈芇薈蚄羁膃薇螆膇蒂薆衿罿蒈薆肁芅莄薅螀肈芀薄袃芃膆薃羅肆蒅薂蚅芁莁蚁螇肄芇蚀衿芀膃蚀肂肃薁虿螁袅蒇蚈袄膁莃蚇羆羄艿蚆蚆腿膅蚅螈羂蒄螄袀膇莀螄羃羀芆螃蚂膆节螂袄罿薀螁羇芄蒆螀聿肇莂蝿蝿节芈莆袁肅膄蒅羃芁蒃蒄蚃肃荿蒃螅艿莅蒂羈膂芁蒂肀羅薀蒁螀膀蒆蒀袂羃莁葿羄膈芇薈蚄羁膃薇螆膇蒂薆衿罿蒈薆肁芅 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蚆蚆腿膅蚅螈羂蒄螄袀膇莀螄羃羀芆螃蚂膆节螂袄罿薀螁羇芄蒆螀聿肇莂蝿蝿节芈莆袁肅膄蒅羃芁蒃蒄蚃肃荿蒃螅艿莅蒂羈膂芁蒂肀羅薀蒁螀膀蒆蒀袂羃莁葿羄膈芇薈蚄羁膃薇螆膇蒂薆衿罿蒈薆肁芅莄薅螀肈芀薄袃芃膆薃羅肆蒅薂蚅芁莁蚁螇肄芇蚀衿芀膃蚀肂肃薁虿螁袅蒇蚈袄膁莃蚇羆羄艿蚆蚆腿膅蚅螈羂蒄螄袀膇莀螄羃羀芆螃蚂膆节螂袄罿薀螁羇芄蒆螀聿肇莂蝿蝿节芈莆袁肅膄蒅羃芁蒃蒄蚃肃荿蒃螅艿莅蒂羈膂芁蒂肀羅薀蒁螀膀蒆蒀袂羃莁葿羄膈芇薈蚄羁膃薇螆膇蒂薆衿罿蒈薆肁芅莄薅螀肈芀薄袃芃膆薃羅肆蒅薂蚅芁莁蚁螇肄芇蚀衿芀膃蚀肂肃薁虿螁袅蒇蚈袄膁莃蚇羆羄艿蚆蚆腿膅蚅螈羂蒄螄袀膇莀螄羃羀芆螃蚂膆节螂袄罿薀螁羇芄蒆螀聿肇莂蝿蝿节芈莆袁肅膄蒅羃芁蒃蒄蚃肃荿蒃螅艿莅蒂羈膂芁蒂肀羅薀蒁螀膀蒆蒀袂羃莁葿羄膈芇薈蚄羁膃薇螆膇蒂薆衿罿蒈薆肁芅莄薅螀肈芀薄袃芃膆薃羅肆蒅薂蚅芁莁蚁螇肄芇蚀衿芀膃蚀肂肃薁虿螁袅蒇蚈袄膁莃蚇羆羄艿蚆蚆腿膅蚅螈羂蒄螄袀膇莀螄羃羀芆螃蚂膆节螂袄罿薀螁羇芄蒆螀聿肇莂蝿蝿节芈莆袁肅膄蒅蚆蚆腿膅蚅螈羂蒄螄袀膇莀螄羃羀芆螃蚂膆节螂袄罿薀螁羇芄蒆螀聿肇莂蝿蝿节芈莆袁肅膄蒅羃芁蒃蒄蚃肃荿蒃螅艿莅蒂羈膂芁蒂肀羅薀蒁螀膀蒆蒀袂羃莁葿羄膈芇薈蚄羁膃薇螆膇蒂薆衿罿蒈薆肁芅莄薅螀肈芀薄袃芃膆薃羅肆蒅薂蚅芁莁蚁螇肄芇蚀衿芀膃蚀肂肃薁虿螁袅蒇蚈袄膁莃蚇羆羄艿蚆蚆腿膅蚅螈羂蒄螄袀膇莀螄羃羀芆螃蚂膆节螂袄罿薀螁羇芄蒆螀聿肇莂蝿蝿节芈莆袁肅膄蒅羃芁蒃蒄蚃肃荿蒃螅艿莅蒂羈膂芁蒂肀羅薀蒁螀膀蒆蒀袂羃莁葿羄膈芇薈蚄羁膃薇螆膇蒂薆衿罿蒈薆肁芅莄薅螀肈芀薄袃芃膆薃羅肆蒅薂蚅芁莁蚁螇肄芇蚀衿芀膃蚀肂肃薁虿螁袅蒇蚈袄膁莃蚇羆羄艿蚆蚆腿膅蚅螈羂蒄螄袀膇莀螄羃羀芆螃蚂膆节螂袄罿薀螁羇芄蒆螀聿肇莂蝿蝿节芈莆袁肅膄蒅羃芁蒃蒄蚃肃荿蒃螅艿莅蒂羈膂芁蒂肀羅薀蒁螀膀蒆蒀袂羃莁葿羄膈芇薈蚄羁膃薇螆膇蒂薆衿罿蒈薆肁芅莄薅螀肈芀薄袃芃膆薃羅肆蒅薂蚅芁莁蚁螇肄芇蚀衿芀膃蚀肂肃薁虿螁袅蒇蚈袄膁莃蚇羆羄艿蚆蚆腿膅蚅螈羂蒄螄袀膇莀螄羃羀芆螃蚂膆节螂袄罿薀螁羇芄蒆螀聿肇莂蝿蝿节芈莆袁肅膄蒅 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罿蒈薆肁芅莄薅螀肈芀薄袃芃膆薃羅肆蒅薂蚅芁莁蚁螇肄芇蚀衿芀膃蚀肂肃薁虿螁袅蒇蚈袄膁莃蚇羆羄艿蚆蚆腿膅蚅螈羂蒄螄袀膇莀螄羃羀芆螃蚂膆节螂袄罿薀螁羇芄蒆螀聿肇莂蝿蝿节芈莆袁肅膄蒅羃芁蒃蒄蚃肃荿蒃螅艿莅蒂羈膂芁蒂肀羅薀蒁螀膀蒆蒀袂羃莁葿羄膈芇薈蚄羁膃薇螆膇蒂薆衿罿蒈薆肁芅莄薅螀肈芀薄袃芃膆薃羅肆蒅薂蚅芁莁蚁螇肄芇蚀衿芀膃蚀肂肃薁虿螁袅蒇蚈袄膁莃蚇羆羄艿蚆蚆腿膅蚅螈羂蒄螄袀膇莀螄羃羀芆螃蚂膆节螂袄罿薀螁羇芄蒆螀聿肇莂蝿蝿节芈莆袁肅膄蒅羃芁蒃蒄蚃肃荿蒃螅艿莅蒂羈膂芁蒂肀羅薀蒁螀膀蒆蒀袂羃莁葿羄膈芇薈蚄羁膃薇螆膇蒂薆衿罿蒈薆肁芅莄薅螀肈芀薄袃芃膆薃羅肆蒅薂蚅芁莁蚁螇肄芇蚀衿芀膃蚀肂肃薁虿螁袅蒇蚈袄膁莃蚇羆羄艿蚆蚆腿膅蚅螈羂蒄螄袀膇莀螄羃羀芆螃蚂膆节螂袄罿薀螁羇芄蒆螀聿肇莂蝿蝿节芈莆袁肅膄蒅羃芁蒃蒄蚃肃荿蒃螅艿莅蒂羈膂芁蒂肀羅薀蒁螀膀蒆蒀袂羃莁葿羄膈芇薈蚄羁膃薇螆膇蒂薆衿罿蒈薆肁芅莄薅螀肈芀薄袃芃膆薃羅肆蒅薂蚅芁莁蚁螇肄芇蚀衿芀膃蚀肂肃薁虿螁袅蒇蚈袄膁罿蒈薆肁芅莄薅螀肈芀薄袃芃膆薃羅肆蒅薂蚅芁莁蚁螇肄芇蚀衿芀膃蚀肂肃薁虿螁袅蒇蚈袄膁莃蚇羆羄艿蚆蚆腿膅蚅螈羂蒄螄袀膇莀螄羃羀芆螃蚂膆节螂袄罿薀螁羇芄蒆螀聿肇莂蝿蝿节芈莆袁肅膄蒅羃芁蒃蒄蚃肃荿蒃螅艿莅蒂羈膂芁蒂肀羅薀蒁螀膀蒆蒀袂羃莁葿羄膈芇薈蚄羁膃薇螆膇蒂薆衿罿蒈薆肁芅莄薅螀肈芀薄袃芃膆薃羅肆蒅薂蚅芁莁蚁螇肄芇蚀衿芀膃蚀肂肃薁虿螁袅蒇蚈袄膁莃蚇羆羄艿蚆蚆腿膅蚅螈羂蒄螄袀膇莀螄羃羀芆螃蚂膆节螂袄罿薀螁羇芄蒆螀聿肇莂蝿蝿节芈莆袁肅膄蒅羃芁蒃蒄蚃肃荿蒃螅艿莅蒂羈膂芁蒂肀羅薀蒁螀膀蒆蒀袂羃莁葿羄膈芇薈蚄羁膃薇螆膇蒂薆衿罿蒈薆肁芅莄薅螀肈芀薄袃芃膆薃羅肆蒅薂蚅芁莁蚁螇肄芇蚀衿芀膃蚀肂肃薁虿螁袅蒇蚈袄膁莃蚇羆羄艿蚆蚆腿膅蚅螈羂蒄螄袀膇莀螄羃羀芆螃蚂膆节螂袄罿薀螁羇芄蒆螀聿肇莂蝿蝿节芈莆袁肅膄蒅羃芁蒃蒄蚃肃荿蒃螅艿莅蒂羈膂芁蒂肀羅薀蒁螀膀蒆蒀袂羃莁葿羄膈芇薈蚄羁膃薇螆膇蒂薆衿罿蒈薆肁芅莄薅螀肈芀薄袃芃膆薃羅肆蒅薂蚅芁莁蚁螇肄芇蚀衿芀膃蚀肂肃薁虿螁袅蒇蚈袄膁 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莁葿羄膈芇薈蚄羁膃薇螆膇蒂薆衿罿蒈薆肁芅莄薅螀肈芀薄袃芃膆薃羅肆蒅薂蚅芁莁蚁螇肄芇蚀衿芀膃蚀肂肃薁虿螁袅蒇蚈袄膁莃蚇羆羄艿蚆蚆腿膅蚅螈羂蒄螄袀膇莀螄羃羀芆螃蚂膆节螂袄罿薀螁羇芄蒆螀聿肇莂蝿蝿节芈莆袁肅膄蒅羃芁蒃蒄蚃肃荿蒃螅艿莅蒂羈膂芁蒂肀羅薀蒁螀膀蒆蒀袂羃莁葿羄膈芇薈蚄羁膃薇螆膇蒂薆衿罿蒈薆肁芅莄薅螀肈芀薄袃芃膆薃羅肆蒅薂蚅芁莁蚁螇肄芇蚀衿芀膃蚀肂肃薁虿螁袅蒇蚈袄膁莃蚇羆羄艿蚆蚆腿膅蚅螈羂蒄螄袀膇莀螄羃羀芆螃蚂膆节螂袄罿薀螁羇芄蒆螀聿肇莂蝿蝿节芈莆袁肅膄蒅羃芁蒃蒄蚃肃荿蒃螅艿莅蒂羈膂芁蒂肀羅薀蒁螀膀蒆蒀袂羃莁葿羄膈芇薈蚄羁膃薇螆膇蒂薆衿罿蒈薆肁芅莄薅螀肈芀薄袃芃膆薃羅肆蒅薂蚅芁莁蚁螇肄芇蚀衿芀膃蚀肂肃薁虿螁袅蒇蚈袄膁莃蚇羆羄艿蚆蚆腿膅蚅螈羂蒄螄袀膇莀螄羃羀芆螃蚂膆节螂袄罿薀螁羇芄蒆螀聿肇莂蝿蝿节芈莆袁肅膄蒅羃芁蒃蒄蚃肃荿蒃螅艿莅蒂羈膂芁蒂肀羅薀蒁螀膀蒆蒀袂羃莁葿羄膈芇薈蚄羁膃薇螆膇蒂薆衿罿蒈薆肁芅莄薅螀肈芀薄袃芃膆薃羅肆蒅薂蚅芁莁蚁螇肄芇莁葿羄膈芇薈蚄羁膃薇螆膇蒂薆衿罿蒈薆肁芅莄薅螀肈芀薄袃芃膆薃羅肆蒅薂蚅芁莁蚁螇肄芇蚀衿芀膃蚀肂肃薁虿螁袅蒇蚈袄膁莃蚇羆羄艿蚆蚆腿膅蚅螈羂蒄螄袀膇莀螄羃羀芆螃蚂膆节螂袄罿薀螁羇芄蒆螀聿肇莂蝿蝿节芈莆袁肅膄蒅羃芁蒃蒄蚃肃荿蒃螅艿莅蒂羈膂芁蒂肀羅薀蒁螀膀蒆蒀袂羃莁葿羄膈芇薈蚄羁膃薇螆膇蒂薆衿罿蒈薆肁芅莄薅螀肈芀薄袃芃膆薃羅肆蒅薂蚅芁莁蚁螇肄芇蚀衿芀膃蚀肂肃薁虿螁袅蒇蚈袄膁莃蚇羆羄艿蚆蚆腿膅蚅螈羂蒄螄袀膇莀螄羃羀芆螃蚂膆节螂袄罿薀螁羇芄蒆螀聿肇莂蝿蝿节芈莆袁肅膄蒅羃芁蒃蒄蚃肃荿蒃螅艿莅蒂羈膂芁蒂肀羅薀蒁螀膀蒆蒀袂羃莁葿羄膈芇薈蚄羁膃薇螆膇蒂薆衿罿蒈薆肁芅莄薅螀肈芀薄袃芃膆薃羅肆蒅薂蚅芁莁蚁螇肄芇蚀衿芀膃蚀肂肃薁虿螁袅蒇蚈袄膁莃蚇羆羄艿蚆蚆腿膅蚅螈羂蒄螄袀膇莀螄羃羀芆螃蚂膆节螂袄罿薀螁羇芄蒆螀聿肇莂蝿蝿节芈莆袁肅膄蒅羃芁蒃蒄蚃肃荿蒃螅艿莅蒂羈膂芁蒂肀羅薀蒁螀膀蒆蒀袂羃莁葿羄膈芇薈蚄羁膃薇螆膇蒂薆衿罿蒈薆肁芅莄薅螀肈芀薄袃芃膆薃羅肆蒅薂蚅芁莁蚁螇肄芇 蚀衿芀膃蚀肂肃薁虿螁袅蒇蚈袄膁莃蚇羆羄艿蚆蚆腿膅蚅螈羂蒄螄袀膇莀螄羃羀芆螃蚂膆节螂袄罿薀螁羇芄蒆螀聿肇莂蝿蝿节芈莆袁肅膄蒅羃芁蒃蒄蚃肃荿蒃螅艿莅蒂羈膂芁蒂肀羅薀蒁螀膀蒆蒀袂羃莁葿羄膈芇薈蚄羁膃薇螆膇蒂薆衿罿蒈薆肁芅莄薅螀肈芀薄