投资金融之雷曼兄弟的CDMA2000投资分析.docx

Investor Conference Call:Update on CDMA2000 1xEV-DOFeaturing AirvanaHosted by Lehman BrothersJuly 10, 2003LEHMAN BROTHERSAirvana Proprietary & Confidential1Introduction: Investigating CDMA 1XEV-DO Todays call examines the development of the CDMA2000 1XEV-DOhigh speed mobile data market Continues our investigation of mobile wireless data markets Follows our recent call on the development of the WLAN market CDMA 1XEV-DO appears poised to become an important newtechnology for the CDMA community Carriers include Verizon Wireless and SK Telecom CDMA vendor includes QUALCOMM, Lucent, Nortel, Motorola and Ericsson CDMA 1XEV-DO is developing traction in Korea, Japan, the U.S. andLatin America and is enabling a broad range of exciting new multimediaapplications and services Featured speaker Randy Battat is President & CEO of Airvana, a high-profile start-up driving the development of this marketLEHMAN BROTHERSAirvana Proprietary & Confidential2TopicsAirvana Overview1xEV-DO Market & ApplicationsAirvana ProductsFuture DirectionLEHMAN BROTHERSAirvana Proprietary & Confidential3Airvana Overview Product Differentiated All-IP Radio Access Network 1xEV-DO: Broadband, mobile, CDMA wireless standard Funding $80M raised in three rounds largest investment in 1xEV-DO Major Investors Matrix Partners Desh Deshpande Qualcomm Key Partners Qualcomm, Nortel, EricssonLEHMAN BROTHERSAirvana Proprietary & Confidential4Current Status Financial Revenue: $5M in 2002; $20M-$30M in 2003 Expect to turn profitable by year-end Trials/Deployments To Date 2 North America Verizon Wireless Commercial Launch Q3 03 2 Latin America Vesper Commercial Launch Q2 03 4 Asia/Pacific Asia Pacific Broadband Wireless Launch Q3 03 1 EMEALEHMAN BROTHERSAirvana Proprietary & Confidential51xEV-DO Market OverviewLEHMAN BROTHERSAirvana Proprietary & Confidential6How operators will migrate to 3G2GData Rate (kbps)CDMA100001000171100451010142G2.5G10 14GSMGPRS1 Same spectrum Same Cell Sites Packet DataTypical200 KHz Low SpeedPeakLEHMAN BROTHERSAirvana Proprietary & Confidential7GSMCDMAGPRSHow operators will migrate to 3G2GData Rate (kbps)CDMA100002,0001000100400171451010142G2.5G3G5 MHz10 14GSMGPRSW-CDMA“UMTS”1 Same spectrum Same Cell Sites New Spectrum New Cell Sites Packet Data Higher Capacity VoiceTypical200 KHz Low Speed Higher Speed DataPeakLEHMAN BROTHERSAirvana Proprietary & Confidential8GSMCDMAGPRSWCDMAHow operators will migrate to 3G2G3GData Rate (kbps)CDMACDMA2000(1xRTT)100002,000 Same spectrum Same Cell Sites 2x Voice Capacity Higher Speed Data1000100400171453071531.25 MHz1010142G2.5G3G5 MHz10 14GSMGPRSW-CDMA“UMTS”1 Same spectrum Same Cell Sites New Spectrum New Cell Sites Packet Data Higher Capacity VoiceTypical200 KHz Low Speed Higher Speed DataPeakLEHMAN BROTHERSAirvana Proprietary & Confidential9CDMA2000GSMCDMAGPRSWCDMAHow operators will migrate to 3G2G3G3GData Rate (kbps)CDMACDMA2000(1xRTT)1xEV-DO100002,0002,400 Same spectrum Same Cell Sites 2x Voice Capacity Higher Speed Data Same spectrum Same Cell Sites Broadband Data Multimedia services1000100400171453071537501.25 MHz1010142G2.5G3G5 MHz10 14GSMGPRSW-CDMA“UMTS”1 Same spectrum Same Cell Sites New Spectrum New Cell Sites Packet Data Higher Capacity VoiceTypical200 KHz Low Speed Higher Speed DataPeakLEHMAN BROTHERSAirvana Proprietary & Confidential10CDMA2000GSMCDMAGPRSWCDMA1xEV-DOApplications: 3 Market SegmentsMobileConsumerMobileProfessionalResidential / SOHOBroadband Multimedia Cell Phone or PC Card is Cell Phone or Home Modem isContent to CellPhoneUsed as a Modem forLaptops and PDAused to connect to PC via USB Application: Broadband Application: Application: Email,Internet Access for ResidentialPictures, News,Information,EntertainmentInternet Access,Corporate IntranetAccess, VPN No change required tothe Applicationand Small Business Users Service deployed without a“truck-roll” just like a CellPhone ServiceLEHMAN BROTHERSAirvana Proprietary & Confidential111xEV-DO Devices Currently AvailableSource: QUALCOMM Annual Meeting of Stockholders, 2/11/2003LEHMAN BROTHERSAirvana Proprietary & Confidential12Asia/Pacific Korea: SKT and KTF posting impressivesubscriber and ARPU numbersLEHMAN BROTHERSAirvana Proprietary & Confidential13LEHMAN BROTHERSAirvana Proprietary & Confidential14LEHMAN BROTHERSAirvana Proprietary & Confidential15LEHMAN BROTHERSAirvana Proprietary & Confidential16Asia/Pacific Korea: SKT and KTF posting impressive subscriberand ARPU numbers KDDI will launch 1xEV-DO in Q4 03 Covering 60% of Japanese population at launch, 90%within a year Asia Pacific Broadband Wireless (Taiwan) willlaunch commercial service in Q3 03 China Unicom launching several trials Additional planning underway driven by Koreasuccess and threat of WCDMA by HutchisonLEHMAN BROTHERSAirvana Proprietary & Confidential17North America Verizon Wireless to launch commercial service inSan Diego and Washington, DC in Q3 Expect broader deployment in 2004 Most large CDMA operators are either have trials inplace or are planning them Alaska Communications Systems successful fixed-wireless trial Target applications Mobile business professional laptop PC access Residential broadband Broadband content delivered to handsets: sports, news,stocks, weather, entertainment, games, LEHMAN BROTHERSAirvana Proprietary & Confidential18Latin America Vesper launched service in March Fixed business/residential broadband service rate-limited to 300 kbps Very positive reaction from users 70% conversion success rate converting freesubscribers to paid subscribers Brazil Telecom launched 1xEV-Trial androaming agreement with Vesper BellSouth International launches several1xEV-DO technology & market trials acrossthe regionLEHMAN BROTHERSAirvana Proprietary & Confidential19ProductsLEHMAN BROTHERSAirvana Proprietary & Confidential20Airvanas 1xEV-DO SystemElement Management SystemAirvanaRadio NetworkChannelControllerCardAirvanaRN-8000IPNetworkPDSNR-P InterfaceAAA ServerIPNetworkBenefits of an ALL-IP Radio Network: Enhanced Revenue with Differentiated Services Better Reliability & System Availability Lower Deployment and Operating Costs Leaves Legacy Voice Network AloneLEHMAN BROTHERSAirvana Proprietary & Confidential21Nortel Channel CardLEHMAN BROTHERSAirvana Proprietary & Confidential22Ericsson Channel CardLEHMAN BROTHERSAirvana Proprietary & Confidential23Benefits of All-IP Architecture Increased revenues Quality of Service prioritizes traffic to most profitable users Multiple service offerings from a single network: fixed or mobile,broadband PC or phone, Internet access, push-to-talk Lower operating costs IP backhaul gives operators choice Fewer central offices Web-based provisioning Increased system reliability & maintainabilityRouted network structureWeb-based management systemRedundant/load-balanced system elements with hot-swapOn-site flash for multiple SW copies, statistics collectionLEHMAN BROTHERSAirvana Proprietary & Confidential24Future DirectionLEHMAN BROTHERSAirvana Proprietary & Confidential25User-Level Quality of Service Users assigned to classes of service (e.g. gold, silver, )with network performance tuned for each service class Business impact: Prioritizing more profitable customers (e.g. corporate enterprise Tuning network traffic by market segment (e.g. PC Internet accessversus handset applications) Pricing by market segmentLEHMAN BROTHERSAirvana Proprietary & Confidential26IP Broadcast Single transmission Multiple receivers Network utilizationscales with content, notsubscribers Selectable data rates:38.4 614.4 kbps New services News, music, video/TVdistribution, sports,advertising,. Supports TV-like logicalchannelsLEHMAN BROTHERSAirvana Proprietary & Confidential271xEV-DO Release A Reverse Link Very High Peak Data Rates: 153.6 1.2 Mbps Significantly Higher Sector Throughput 350 550 kbps (Hybrid ARQ + Enhanced MAC) 550 900 kbps (4-way diversity) Forward Link Higher Peak Rate: 2.5 Mbps 3 Mbps 30% Higher Sector ThroughputSupport for short packetsLower latencyFaster sleep-time intervalTighter 1x/1xEV-DO interoperabilityLEHMAN BROTHERSAirvana Proprietary & Confidential28Outlook: CDMA Applications & ServicesLegendOn-LineOn-LineIS-951xRTTGamingBroadcastVideoMultimediaGamingBroadcastVideoMultimedia1xEV-DOPush-To-TalkCameraPhoneNotebookPC AccessWebContentVideoOn DemandFixedBroadbandPush-To-TalkCameraPhoneNotebookPC AccessWebContentMessagingVideoOn DemandFixedBroadbandPush-To-TalkCameraPhoneNotebookPC AccessWebContentMessagingVideoOn DemandFixedBroadbandPush-To-TalkCameraPhoneNotebookPC AccessWebContentTelephonyTelephonyTelephonyTelephonyTelephonyLEHMAN BROTHERSAirvana Proprietary & Confidential29Wireles