流行病学绪论描述.ppt

1,流行病学绪论 Introduction of Epidemiology,哈尔滨医科大学流行病学教研室 Department of epidemiology ，Harbin Medical University,2,医学 Medicine,Basic medicine Clinical medicine Preventive medicine Epidemiology has always been a necessary part of medicine practice. 流行病学一直医学实践必不可少的部分,基础医学 临床医学 预防医学,3,医学之母 The mother of medicine,Because, the epidemiology is from macro point of view to observe the any question. e.g. from macro point of view to study the disease and health. 因为流行病学是从宏观观察问题， 亦即从宏观研究疾病和健康,4,CONTENTS 目录,History Definition Methods Principle Application Features Prospect,历史 定义 方法 原理 应用 特点 展望,5,Brief History of Epidemiology 流行病学简史,学科形成前期 -18世纪 学科形成期 18世纪末-20世纪初 学科发展期（现代流行病学时期） 20世纪40、50年代-,Before the form of Epidemiology -1700s Forming of Epidemiology End of 1700s beginning of 20 century Development of Epidemiology （Modern Epidemiology） 40s-50s of 20 century,6,Earlier stage: - 18th century,-Hippocrates (460-377 BC) A First Epidemiologist,Epidemic Epidemic On Airs, Waters and Places -中国：“疫”、“时疫”、“疫疠”,From there is the human history of civilization to the 18th century. During this time ,This discipline( branch) not yet forms, but had its embryonic form.,7,Hippocrates (460-377 BC) 第一个流行病学家,主要的流行病学著作： Epidemic Epidemic On Airs, Waters and Places,中国：“疫”“时疫”“疫疠”,一、学科形成前期-18世纪,自从有人类文明到18世纪. 这期间,该学科（ 分支） 尚未形成，但已形成雏形.,8,The Black Death in Europe ca.1300s 欧洲黑死病,9,1347-1351年 鼠疫导致2400万人死亡,10,Italy- Venice - the earliest quarantine 15th Century : The people in order to avoid the infectious disease spreading, the request external ships must Away (outside) from the port 40 days .That is (quadraginta (latin =40) . 1423: set up first infectious diseases hospital,中国：隋朝开设“疠人坊” (leprosy hospital) 隔离麻风病人,11,意大利威尼斯最早的检疫,14世纪 外来船只必须在港外停留检疫40天quadraginta (拉丁语，意思为40) quarantine 1423年成立了首家传染病隔离医院,中国：隋朝开设“疠人坊”以隔离麻风病人,12,-John Graunt (1620-1674),Use death data to study distribution of disease Make first life table calculate expectation of life Summarizes death process with probability of survival and death Producce control group idea His contribution is the first time to introduce Statistics to Epidemiology,Natural and Political Observations Made Upon the Bills of Mortality,13,John Graunt (1620-1674),利用死亡数据进行死亡分布及规律性研究 创制了第一张寿命表，计算期望寿命 用生存概率和死亡概率来概括死亡经历 提出设立比较组的思想 将统计学引入流行病学领域,Natural and Political Observations Made Upon the Bills of Mortality,14,Graunts Observations,Excess of males over females among births but higher mortality in males High infant mortality rate Seasonal variation in morbidity Acute versus chronic diseases Urban versus rural mortality Rural migration to the city First attempts at a life table,出生时男性多于女性，但男性死亡高 婴儿死亡率高 发病呈季节变动 比较急性与慢性疾病 城市与农村死亡比较 农村象城市流动 首次尝试寿命表,15,Lind .James 17161795 - A surgeon of English navy - By means of Epidemiologic experiment Discovered Orange prevent scurvy,2. Form stage,Start the experimental Epidemiology,16,James Lind (1716-1794),VitC缺乏 坏血病 (1747) 开创了流行病学临床试验的先河,二、学科形成期,17,-Edward Jenner (1796) He used cowpox immunization in preventing smallpox.,18,Edward Jenner (1749-1823),(1796) 接种牛痘 预防天花,开创了主动免疫的先河,施民安. 琴纳发现牛痘预防天花的经过. 见:钱宇平, 主编. 流行病学研究实例 (第1卷). 北京: 人民卫生出版社，1984. p38-42.,19,In 1979 WHO declared that smallpox has been eliminated in the whole world. Smallpox eradication should be attributed to his research .,20,Sir Percivall Pott: 1775,English surgeon in London We all best known for “Potts fracture” He is one of earliest accounts of cause and effect linkage for an occupational carcinogen. He found that the scrotal cancer was particularly in the workers of Chimney (stovepipe) cleaning,21,Sir Percivall Pott: 1775,英国外科医生 以“Potts 骨折著称 他最早将职业致癌物与病因联系起来 他发现阴囊癌为烟筒清洁工所特有,22,William Farr (1807-1883),Statistician (English ) First person who routine collect population and death data in England Put important words: Standard mortality, Person year、 Dose-response relationship、 P=ID,23,William Farr (1807-1883),在英国首创人口和死亡的常规资料收集 提出许多流行病学的重要概念：标化死亡率、人年、剂量反应关系、患病率 患病率发病率病程,现代流行病学的奠基人之一 公共卫生运动的领导者之一,24,-London Epidemiological Society (1850) established,It is a first one in the world,It is showed that the discipline already formed,25,London Epidemiological Society (1850),全世界第一个流行病学学会 标志着流行病学学科的形成,26,-John Snow (1848-1854),27,The great French Bacteriologist Louis Pasteur (1822-1895),He established the Germ theory Manufacture animal vaccine: -anthrax, -fowl cholera, -swine erysipelas -Rabies-virus-vaccine Pasteurization 600C 30 the new useful disinfection method,28,伟大的法国微生物学家 Louis Pasteur (1822-1895),微生物理论 (germ theory) 开发了鸡霍乱、炭疽、猪丹毒疫苗 减毒的微生物可以用作免疫 提出狂犬病是由一种显微镜看不到的物质传播的（即病毒），并开发疫苗治疗和预防狂犬病 巴斯德杀菌法,第一节 流行病学发展史,29,3, Development stage （发展阶段） (20th Century 40s, 50s -now) Features （特点）: (1) Spectrum of disease : The study area extended from communicable diseases- to Non-communicable /chronic disease - to health 疾病谱 研究领域从 传染病非传染病-健康,30,Ten leading causes of death 1900 and 1990,31,Children of Polio 脊髓灰质炎患儿,32,Features （特点）: （2）Research method from Survey and analysis to qualitative and quantitative combined, and macroscopic and microscopic combined 研究方法从调查分析到定性和定量结合，宏观与微观结合 (3) Social behavior factors is very important 社会行为因素非常重要 (4) There are more other related Branch of epidemiology emerge 有更多的流行病学相关分支出现,33,REVIVAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY: BEGINNING OF MODERN EPIDEMIOLOGY,Main characteristic: From communicable diseases to non-communicable diseases Time: Mid 20th Century First RCTs: streptomycin and respiratory tuberculosis in 1948 Early case-control studies: smoking and lung cancer in 1950 Early cohort studies: Framingham Study in 1948 British Doctors Study in 1951,Sir Austin B. Hill: The Father of Modern Epidemiology,Sir Richard Doll: The Godfather of Epidemiology,34,流行病学复兴：现代流行病学的开始,主要特点: 从传染病倒非传染病 时间: 20th世纪中叶 第一个 RCTs: 链霉素与肺结核 1948 早期病例对照研究：吸烟和肺癌的关系 1950 早期队列研究: Framingham 研究1948 英国医生研究 1951,Sir Austin B. Hill: The Father of Modern Epidemiology,Sir Richard Doll: The Godfather of Epidemiology,35,Kenneth Rothman: The Philosopher in Epidemiology 现代流行病学中的哲学家 Kenneth Rothman,36,ROTHMAN AND MODERN EPIDEMIOLOGY,From Study of distributions to study of causes of disease In humans and observational: case-control & cohort studies In order o avoid the Confounding bias he suggested : By means of the * Restriction and matching *Standardization *Stratified analysis *Adjustment by regression can be control the confounding bias,37,1992: BIRTH OF EVIDENCE-BASED MEDICINE 1992年： 循证医学诞生,“A new paradigm for medical practice is emerging in 1992” 出现医学实践进模式 -A New Approach to Teaching the Practice of Medicine 医学教育新方法,38,DAVID SACKETT,Activist in clinical epidemiology 临床流行病学活动家 The pioneer in EBM 循证医学先驱 The first book on EBM 第一本循证医学书 McMaster University Health Science Centre Chairman of Oxford Centre for EBM,39,WORLD COCHRANE COLLABORATION 国际COCHRANE合作,In 1992, the very first Cochrane centre was established in Oxford. Mission: Collecting, summarizing and disseminating evidence from organized research.,1992年第一个COCHRANE中心在牛津建立 使命：收集、总结和传播研究证据,40,Today there is a total of 15 national or regional Cochrane centers and over 40 review groups world wide. Chinese national Cochrane/EBM Centre is in Sichuan University,目前，全球有15个国家和地区COCHRANE 中心和40多个评价组 中国国家循证医学中心在四川大学,WORLD COCHRANE COLLABORATION 国际COCHRANE合作,41,Definition of Epidemiology 流行病学定义,Epidemiology: the study of the distribution and determinants and the occurrence of health-related states or events in specified and the application of this study to control health problems. (Last),42,the meaning of this definition,Disease Population Distribution prevention & control Social medicine,疾病 人群 分布预防空中 社会医学,43,The relationship between epidemiology and clinical medicine,Populations Studies/assessments Prevention Evaluation Planning,Individuals Diagnosis Treatment Curing Caring,44,Study methods 研究方法 -Observation -Experimental -Theoretical,45,STUDY,Surveillance Observation Hypothesis testing Analytic research Experiments Theoretical epidemiology,监测 观察 假设检验 分析研究 实验 理论流行病学,46,Distribution,Place Time Persons,47,Determinants by means of:,Physical Biological Social Cultural Behavioral Factors,48,Health- related states and events 健康相关状态和事件,Diseases Causes of death Behavior: Tobacco, Alcohol, Drug use Reactions to preventive regimens Provision and use of health services,49,Epidemiology,Population Medicine 群体医学 The Language of Quantification 定量语言,50,Factors influencing the spread of disease,Socioeconomic conditions Sanitation Nutrition Lifestyle Age Gender,社会经济状况 卫生 营养 生活方式 年龄性别,51,Principle of epidemiology 流行病学原理,Distribution Epidemic process Relationship of human and environment Causation Causal inference Prevention Theoretical epidemiology,流行 分布 人语自然关系 病因 病因推断 预防 理论流行病学,52,Application of epidemiology 流行病学应用,1. Determine great public health Problems 2. Response and deal with emergency event 3. Surveillance of disease related,重大公共卫生问题的确定 突发事件的应急与处理 疾病相关监测,53,Application of epidemiology 流行病学应用,4. Study the cause and risk factor of disease 5. To study the natural history and prognosis of disease. 6. Evaluate the prevent effect,疾病病因和危险因素研究 疾病的自然史研究 疾病防治的效果评价,54,一、重大公共卫生问题的确定 Determine great public health Problems,图1-1 中国1954-1998年死亡率变化趋势,55,(2006中国卫生统计提要),表1-1 2005年中国部分市县前十位疾病死亡专率及死亡原因构成,56,表1-2 2003年中国居民慢性病患病率()及疾病构成(%),(第三次国家卫生服务调查结果),57,二、突发事件的应急与处理 Response and deal with emergency event,SARS 人感染猪链球菌病 Meningitis Caused by Streptococcus Suis,58,First stage 1.22.28,Second stage 3.84.23,Third stage 4.245.31,Fourth 6.16.24,图1-2 Time distribution of SARS,59,图1-3,60,图1-4,61,Proportion of person contacted SARS to all isolated 61%（630/1028),Table 1-5 Incidence of isolated medical observers of 1028,62,Table 1-6 Incidence situation of 630 person close contacted with SARS,Proportion of person contacted with Symptom period SARS to total isolated 37% (383/1028),63,监测目的 描 述 现 状 应 急 反 应 决 策 依 据 干 预 评 价,三、疾病相关监测 Disease related surveillance,Purpose of surveillance Describe the situation Emergency response Basis for decision making Evaluation for intervention,64,疾病监测（发病、死亡） 生物学监测（全血、血浆、血清、唾液及液） 行为监测（吸烟、饮酒、锻炼、性行为、毒） 环境监测（自然环境、社会环境） 虫媒监测（鼠、蚊）,Disease surveillance (incidence, death) Biology surveillance (blood, serum, plasma, saliva ) Behavior surveillance (smoking, alcohol drinking, drug) Environmental surveillance natural， social，Environment Vector surveillance （mouse mosquito）,监测类型 Type of surveillance,65,第一阶段（20世纪50年代） 全国法定传染病疫情报告系统 (1950年) First stage (50s of 20 century- ) The notifiable infection disease system in China (1950),我国的监测系统 Surveillance system in China,66,第二阶段（20世纪70年代后期） 传染病监测（单病监测系统） 出生、死亡监测 综合疾病监测系统（1980年） Second stage (70s of 20 century-) infectious disease surveillance (single disease surveillance system) birth, death surveillance comprehensive surveillance system (1980-),67,第三阶段（20世纪80年代后期） 传染病监测、出生、死亡监测 慢性非传染性疾病监测 行为监测 The third stage （80s 20 century-） infectious disease surveillance； birth, death surveillance Chronic non-communicated disease、behavior surveillance 第四阶段（21世纪初） 整合：国家公共卫生监测体系 The fourth stage （beginning of 20 century-） integrate：Natio