中小企业论文：中小企业融资风险预警与控制.doc

中小企业论文：中小企业融资风险预警与控制【中文摘要】随着社会主义市场经济体制逐步建立和完善,国有企业大规模改制,中小企业呈现出蓬勃发展的良好态势。但是中小企业的生存环境并不乐观。据民建中央的一份调研报告显示,目前中国中小企业平均寿命仅3.7年,和世界其他国家的中小企业比生命非常短暂。中小企业之所以如此脆弱,除了中小企业自身所处的环境和经营状况的限制外,融资困难也是一个重要的原因。长期以来我国大量学者所做的分析发现中小企业融资困难的原因各种各样,有中小企业自身的原因,资金提供者的原因,还有国家经济制度的原因,本文认为除了以上原因外,还有一个很重要的原因就是中小企业融资风险大。本文通过收集中小企业的财务数据,选取对融资风险有影响的财务指标,建立数学模型,预测中小企业违约的概率,确定中小企业融资风险的强度,旨在根据预测得到的中小企业的违约概率指导中小企业加强自身融资风险管理,也为商业银行制定贷款政策提供依据,最终使违约概率低的中小企业的贷款需求都得到满足,有效缓解中小企业融资困难的现状。本文主要的研究内容如下：首先论述了中小企业的融资状况,包括中小企业的融资渠道、融资结构、融资困难,指出中小企业融资风险大是其融资困难的一个重要原因。其次对中小企业面临的融资风险进行了总体探讨,分析了中小企业融资风险的表现形式、基本类别和影响因素。再次根据中小企业融资风险的影响因素,结合中小企业财务数据,选取财务指标,建立融资风险预警模型,测度融资风险的强度,为加强中小企业融资管理提供依据。最后从中小企业自身、商业银行、宏观经济环境三个方面提出加强中小企业融资风险控制、减小中小企业违约概率的建议和相关的改进措施。本文主要的创新之处表现在：(1)本文运用logistic回归模型预测中小企业违约的概率,建立中小企业的融资风险的预警模型,弥补了当前国内学者对中小企业融资风险的研究大多是定性研究,缺乏定量研究的空白。(2)本文在选择建立预警模型的财务指标时考虑了中小企业的发展能力指标和现金流量指标,这两项指标在以往的研究中出现的比较少,但是随着经济的发展越来越重要,成为影响中小企业融资风险的重要指标。【英文摘要】With the improvement of socialist market economic structure and the transformation of state-owned enterprises, the small and medium scale enterprises led a rapid development.But the living environment of the small and medium scale enterprises is not not optimistic. In accordance with a research report from the Central Committee of China Democratic National Construction Association, the mean lifetime of small and medium scale enterprises is only 3.7yeaes.One of the most reasons why the small and medium scale enterprises are so fragile is that they have difficulties in financing.Our country scholarsprevious research finds the causes of difficulty of the small and medium scale enterprises in financing are various. In this paper, we consider one of the causes is that the financing risk of small and medium scale enterprises is too great. By means of collecting the financial data and founding mathematical model, we can predict the default probability of small and medium scale enterprises. Then we can develop the financing risk management of small and medium scale enterprises according to the default probability got by predicting and provide a basis for commercial banks on lending.The chief contents listed as below:Firstly, this paper describes the basic condition of small and medium scale enterprises in our country, including their station and financing statues, then point out financing risks are one of the reasons of their difficulty in financing.Secondly, this paper analyzes the forms of expression and factors of financial risks of small and medium scale enterprises.Thirdly, this paper analyzes the stages of financing risks management and point out financial risk warning system is an important part of financing risks management. Then we built financing risk warning system by means of statistical analysis. At last, this paper provides advises on how to develop the financial risks management of small and medium scale enterprises from the angle of small and medium scale enterprises themselves, commercial banks and macroeconomic situation.The innovation listed as below:(1) In this paper, we use logistic regressive model to predict the probability of default of small and medium scale enterprises, and then create the financing risk warning model. Through that work maintained above, we complement the current domestic scholarsinsufficiency on quantitative research about the financing risk of small and medium scale enterprises.(2) In this paper, when we create the financing risk warning model of small and medium scale enterprises, we consider about the development capacity and cash flows. Both of the tow indicators are more and more important o on affecting of small and medium scale enterprises financing risk with the development of economy, but they are rarely in previous paper.【关键词】中小企业 融资风险 风险预警 风险控制【英文关键词】Small and Medium Scale Enterprise financial risks risk warning risk control【目录】中小企业融资风险预警与控制摘要10-12ABSTRACT12-13第1章 绪论14-281.1 研究背景与意义14-151.1.1 研究背景14-151.1.2 研究意义151.2 文献综述15-231.2.1 国外文献综述15-201.2.2 国内文献综述20-231.3 相关概念界定23-251.3.1 中小企业23-241.3.2 融资24-251.3.3 融资风险251.4 研究内容与方法25-271.4.1 研究内容及框架25-261.4.2 研究方法26-271.5 主要创新点27-28第2章 我国中小企业融资现状分析28-402.1 我国中小企业在国民经济中的作用28-302.1.1 活跃经济与增加就业28-292.1.2 推动技术创新与促进贸易增长29-302.2 我国中小企业融资渠道30-322.2.1 内源融资30-312.2.2 外源融资31-322.3 我国中小企业融资结构分析32-362.3.1 我国中小企业融资结构特征32-332.3.2 中小企业融资结构原因分析33-362.4 我国中小企业融资存在问题分析36-402.4.1 中小企业融资存在的问题36-382.4.2 中小企业融资难的原因分析38-40第3章 我国中小企业融资风险分析40-453.1 我国中小企业融资风险分类40-433.1.1 按成因进行风险分类403.1.2 按融资渠道进行风险分类40-433.2 我国中小企业融资风险的影响因素43-453.2.1 融资利息433.2.2 融资结构433.2.3 期限结构43-443.2.4 经营效益443.2.5 发展能力44-45第4章 我国中小企业融资风险预警模型构建45-654.1 融资风险预警理论及模型构建45-504.1.1 融资风险预警理论454.1.2 中小企业融资风险预警模型构建原则45-474.1.3 融资风险预警模型构建47-504.2 中小企业融资风险预警指标体系建立50-534.2.1 偿债能力指标504.2.2 资本结构指标50-514.2.3 经营效率指标514.2.4 获利能力指标514.2.5 发展能力指标514.2.6 现金流量指标51-534.3 中小企业融资风险预警模型实证分析53-654.3.1 样本选取的原则及数据来源53-544.3.2 用因子分析法化简财务指标54-594.3.3 二分类logistic回归分析59-65第5章 我国中小企业融资风险控制措施65-705.1 中小企业自身的改进措施65-675.1.1 完善中小企业的融资风险预警系统655.1.2 增强中小企业的实力65-665.1.3 安排合理的融资结构