科尔尼为中远集团做的_物流行业及发展研究报告.ppt

July,2001,COSCOIPOSUPPORTMATERIALS,LogisticsServicesIndustryEnvironmentCSFB;A.T.KearneyAnalysis,TransportationandRelatedExpendituresbyRegion(2000),TransportationandRelatedExpendituresbyFunction(2000),US$Bn,Total=US$3,837Bn,Others:-1.4%,Asia(1):2.2%,Europe:2.6%,NorthAmerica:4.0%,3,424,3,837,4,389,Warehousing$304Bn,Transport$2,204Bn,Others$55Bn,Shipper-Related$20Bn,Inventory$1,102Bn,Admin$152Bn,CAGR2000-2006,TheAsianlogisticsoutsourcingmarketisestimatedtoreachUS$31Bnin2001andisexpectedtogrowatCAGR39%overthenextfiveyears,Note:AsiaincludesChina,Japan,HonkKong,Korea,SingaporeandTaiwanSource:BowersoxandCalantone;CSFB;A.T.KearneyAnalysis,LogisticsOutsourcingMarketinAsia-GrossRevenue(US$Bn),CAGR(99-01)=38%,CAGR(01-06)=39%,Thegreatestopportunitiesforoutsourcingareintransport,warehousing,andtransportmanagement,Transport,Warehousing,TransportManagement,IT,SupplementaryLogisticServices,PurchaseOrderManagement,LogisticsManagement,30%,47%,48%,85%,20%,40%,39%,76%,23%,2%,5%,16%,%ofrespondentsoutsourcing1998%ofrespondentsplanedoutsourcing2003,13%,8%,OutsourcingbyFunction,Resourcerequire-ments,Complexity,Note:Thepercentagemaynotaddupto100%duetoroundingSource:BasedonseveralA.T.Kearneystudies,including:Worldwidestudycomprising280participants(automotive19%,electronics25%,retail27%,chemicals29%)Europeanstudycomprising500participants(retail26%,foodCSFB;A.T.KearneyEstimates,CAGR=35%,190,23,0.61,ChinaLogisticsServiceMarket(US$,Bn),ThelogisticsservicesindustryisstillatanearlystageofevolutioninChina,Characteristics,EmergingdemandforoutsourcedlogisticsservicesLowvalueaddedservicessuchastransportandwarehousingarethemajortypeofservicesoutsourcedTraditionalin-housebehaviourbeingimpacted,FastgrowthoflogisticsuserbaseandhigherrequirementforbroaderservicesLargenumberofservicesproviderscompetingforcustomersandhumanresourcesMosthighvalueaddedservicesarefreeandprovidedassellingpoints,LogisticsoutsourcingbecomescommonpracticeandanimportantleverforcompetitionConsolidatedservicemarketwithafewestablishedmarketleadersLogisticspenetrateinsupplychainandreplacetraditionalbusinessmodels,Globallogisticsintegratorsprovideone-stopsolutionworldwideSpecializationandclosecooperationamonggloballogisticsserviceprovidersOptimizedallocationandintegrationofresourcesalongthesupplychain,Stage,Emergence,Growth,Penetration,Globalization,WorldLeading(US),ChinaToday,Source:A.T.Kearney,WarehousingandDistribution,Trucking,RailFreightAlthoughHeavilyUsed,RailwayFreightHasLongTransitTimesandServiceReliabilityIsPoorRailwayContainersAreNotCompatibleWithShippingCompanyContainers,Airline,CustomsBrokerage,CourierLimitedPresenceofForeignFirmsAsJVE.G.DHLSinotransRegionalSegregationinOperation,LogisticsCenterandFreightForwarding,Shipping,Thedomesticwarehousingmarketiscurrentlysmallandover-suppliedwithbasicwarehousesprovidingvirtuallynovalue-addedservicesSomeconsolidationjuststartedamongthelargewarehousingcompanies,RivertransportationhasdeclinedMostvesselsarecharacterizedbylowspeedandhighenergycosts,Truckingcompaniesareonlyallowedtooperateinrestrictedregions,Governmenthasestablished15FreeTradeZonesandsomelogisticscentersaresetupthereInlandtransportationishandledbydomesticfreightforwarderwhoisusuallysub-contractedbytheinternationalfreightforwarder,SevendomesticairlinesdominateregionaloperationsDesignatedforeigncarriersaregivenamaximumentitlementof50tonnesperweek,ManycustomsclearingbrokeragefirmsandconsiderableconfusionaboutrolesCustomsclearingprocedurestookatleast-1daypreviouslybutexpectedtobeshortenedto1hour,ThelogisticsservicesindustryisstillatanearlystageofevolutioninChina(continued),Source:A.T.KearneyAnalysis,TransportationandrelatedexpendituresareproportionatelyhigherinChinathaninmostdevelopedcountriesandNIEsindicatingamajorimprovementopportunity,TotalTransportationandRelatedExpendituresand%ofGDP(2000),Note:(1)VAS:Value-added-services(2)Includingpackaging,admin,informationservices,ect.Source:BowersoxandCalantone,CSFB,IMF1997study;Chinainfobank;A.T.KearneyAnalysis,US$Bn,ChinaTransportationandRelatedExpendituresBreakdownbyFunction(2000),Total=US$248Bn,US$Bn,(1),(2),DemandGrowth,InCoastalChina,demandforlogisticsservicesisexpectedtobestronginGuangdongandShanghai,High,Low,Hebei,Beijing,Tianjin,4,BeijingistheNo.1aircargocenterinChina.Inaddition,Beijingshi-techindustry,whichneedsalotofairtransportation,isdevelopingveryfastOver80%ofthevolumethroughTianjinportareagriculturalproducts,furniture,metalhardwareandrawmaterials,allbeinglowvalueproducts.Inaddition,mostshippersareinpoorfinancialconditionsandareverypricesensitive,Shandong(Qingdao),4,Qingdaohasseveralfamouslocalcompanies,suchasHaier,HiSense,AukmaandQingdaoBeer.TheyaremorequalityorientedandlesspricesensitiveFrozenproductsaccountfor15-20%ofthevolume.Qualityrequirementsforfrozenproductsareveryhighintermsoftimingandhandlingcare.Hence,frozenproductsshipperstendtobelesspricesensitiveandmorequalityconcernedFootwearandgarmentsaccountforsignificantportion.SomelargecustomerssuchasPaylessShoes(No.1customerofCOSCOinvolume)requiresaccurateshippingtimeandfullrangeofsophisticated3PLservicesfromP/Omanagement,tradeconsultingtospacebooking,warehousingandtransportation,Province,LogisticsDemandSelectedProvincesinCoastalChina,Guangdong,DemandSize,5,Remarks,Majorexportsareprocessingoflowervalue-addedproductsnospecialrequirementforlogisticsquality;Roadtransportationisconvenient,oftencontainerizedinfactorytoreducecostlessneedforwarehousing/consolidationElectronicsindustryisboominginDongguan,whichhassomeleadingcompanieslikeHuaweipotentiallargeprofitablecustomers,Strong,Weak,Shanghai(Jiangsu,Zhejiang),5,Shanghaiisthefastgrowingeconomic/financialcenterinChina,whichhassomemajorMNCssuchasSGM,Acer,Philips,etc.Theyarematuredcustomersoflogisticsservicesandlesspricesensitive.Ontheotherhand,togetthedealsfromthemusuallyneedstoinvolvehighlevelnegociationLargecompaniesinShanghaiandnearbyareasaremainlyJVsofautomobileandconsumerelectronicsindustry,whichhavehighproductvalueandlowerpricesensitivity,Source:A.T.Kearneyfieldinterviewsandanalysis,DemandSize,Sichuan(Chengdu),Havethe3rdlargestdistributioncenterinChina,thelargestpopulation,andimportantheavyindustrybaseThelogisticsindustrytherehasalreadyattractedinterestofforeignlargeshipperslikeIkeaandinvestorsincludingHutchisonWhampoaLocatedinmountainareas,roadtransportinfrastructureisinconvenient,sohighlyrelyingonrailtransport,Chongqing,2,Agriculturalproducts,metalproductsandmotorcycles,whichtotallyaccountforover80%oftheexportvolume,arealllow-valueproducts,pricesensitiveandhaveflatgrowthUnderdevelopedinfrastructure,esp.roadandrailtransportationhavelimitedforeigninvestmentsinthisregion.Cargoesusuallytransportedbybarges,whichisthecheapestmode,Province,IninlandChina,thelargestdemandpotentialisinSichuanandtheHubei/Yangtzeriverregion,LogisticsDemandSelectedProvincesinInlandChina,Yunnan,2,DemandGrowth,Remarks,Mostimportantexportindustryistobacco,whichhashighprofitmargin,highqualityrequirementforlogisticsservices,andnotverypricesensitiveExportsforwood,woodenmaterialsandfurniture,whichaccountedforover30%ofexportvolumebefore,arelargelyreducedduetonewlyimposedgovernmentsanctiononcuttingtrees,High,Low,Strong,Weak,Source:A.T.Kearneyfieldinterviewsandanalysis,Hubei,YangtzeRiverRegion,3,Exportsarelow-valueproductsincludingtobacco,cotton,chemicalsandsteelmaterialsManyimportsarematerialforJVs(e.g.CitreonandDongfengCummins),ofwhichdecisionsareusuallymadeoverseasMarketisveryfragmentedandshippersgenerallyhavesmallscale/volumeNowarehouses/pilingcenterswithmoderncontainerhandlingcapacityandadvancedITstructureareavailable,canbeapotentialdevelopmentarea,3,GrowthinthelogisticsservicesindustryinChinawillmainlybedrivenbycontinuedmacroeconomicgrowthandincreasedpropensitytooutsourcelogistics,GrowthDriver,Implication,TheChineseeconomyisexpectedtogrowatCAGR7%overthenextfiveyears.Increasedinternationalanddomestictradewilldrivedemandforlogisticsservices,PublicpolicyandspendingsupportsimprovementsinChinaslogisticsinfrastructure,providingopportunitiesforfurtherexpansionoflogisticsserviceproviders.Capableforeignserviceprovidersarelimitedinbusinessscopebyregulation,andtheirfullentryafterWTOwilldrivetheindustrytowardinternationalbestpractices,ThereisincreasinginterestamongChina-basedenterprisesinoutsourcingforlogisticsservices.OverseasbusinessesareextendingtheirsupplychainsdeeperintoChina,ThefastgrowingmarketinonlineB2Btransactionsprovidesanadditionalmarketsegmentforlogisticsservices,FavorableGrowthOutlookfortheChinaLogisticsServicesIndustry,FavorableMacroEconomicOutlook,PublicPolicyandSpending,IncreasingInterestinOutsourcingforLogisticsNeeds,GrowingITandE-Business,1,2,3,4,Source:A.T.KearneyAnalysis,TheChineseeconomyisexpectedtogrowatCAGR7%overthenextfiveyears,Source:Chinainfobank,A.T.KearneyAnalysis,ProjectionofChinasGDPGrowthandStructure(RMB,Bn),ContinuousgrowthinGDPindicatesarobustandfastgrowingmacroeconomy,providingopportunitiesforsophisticatedlogisticsserviceprovidersTheeconomicstructurewillbecontinuouslyoptimizedandupgradedLogisticsisdirectlycorrelatedwiththemanufacturingindustry,thereforegrowthofsecondaryindustrieswillleadtothegrowthoflogisticsservicesImprovedservicesindustrieswillalsohaveapositiveimpactonthelogisticssectorImprovedsupportiveservicessuchaslegal,accounting,etc.Improvedtelecommunicationcapabilities,Remarks,Secondary:7%,Tertiary:9%,CAGR(01-06),Total:7%,Primary:3%,13,367,9,560,FavorableMacroEconomicOutlook,1,Demandforlogisticsservicescomesfrombothinternationalanddomestictrade,Source:HongKongTradeDevelopmentCouncilResearch;Chinainfobank,DemandforLogisticsServices,MoreInternationalTrade,MoreDomesticTrade,InternationaltradeInternationaltradehassustainedtheglobaleconomicfluctuationandkeptfastgrowinginthepast5yearsItisprojectedtogrowataCAGRof7.5%,withtotaltradevaluereachingUS$680Bnin2005ExportsExpectedtorisebyanadditional2.4%peryearoverthefirstfiveyearsofWTOentryShareasworldexportsisprojectedtorisefromcurrent3.5%to7.3%in2005ImportsProjectedriseofUS$21.3BnafterWTOProjectedannualgrowthratewillbemarginallyfasterthanexport,DomesticTradeCAGRofretailsalesofconsumergoodsinthe“Ninth5Year”was11%PositiveoutlookduetocontinuouslygrowingpurchasingpowerDevelopmentofchainstoresSalesrevenueofchainstorecorporationshasexperiencedoubledigitrisefrom1997MultinationalchainstoreshavebeenaggressivelyimprovingtheirpresenceinChinamarketInter-citytradeCurrentlymorethan50%oftheforeignindustrialandretailfirmsdistributedtheirproductsinmorethan50citiesInter-citytradewillbefrequentafterWTO,FavorableMacroEconomicOutlook,1,TheStateEconomicandTradeCommissionhasestablishedamasterplanfordevelopinglogisticsservicesinChina,StateEconomicandTradeCommissionLogisticsIndustryTradePlan,Source:BusinessAlertC,30PilotCenters,Inter-regionalNetworks,SupplyChainSystems,Selectsuitableenterprisesinvariouskeycitiestoestablish30pilotlogisticsanddistributioncenters,10NationalEnterprises,About10specializedkeyenterpriseswithnationallogisticsanddistributionnetworkswillbedeveloped,Realignassetstoforminter-regional,inter-sectorandinter-ownershiplogisticsanddistributionnetworks,Effortswillbemadetoexplorethepossibilityofusing3PLanddistributionenterprisestobuildsupplychainsystems,andtobringfacilitiesandservicesoflogisticscompaniesclosertoadvancedinternationalstandards,PublicPolicyandSpending,2,AwidearrayofgovernmentsupportedlogisticsinfrastructuredevelopmentprogramsareunderwayacrossChina,Source:Chinainfobank,ExamplesofGovernmentInitiativestoImproveLogisticsInfrastructure,Anumberofnationallogisticscentersareunderconstruction,withreasonablesize,standardizedoperation,andmodernfacilities,CoastalLargeCities-LogisticsCenter,InlandAreas-Road/Railway,ModernthirdpartylogisticsanddistributionbaseItsmainbodywillbelinkedto7railwaysandhundredsofrailwaytransitpointsExpectedtoserveforthedispatchofover90%ofdailynecessitiesinthecityAlsoserveeasternChinaandthewholecountry,ShanghaiCommercialLogisticsCenter,PublicPolicyandSpending,2,Highwaydensitywillgrowtoabout1650km/10000sq.kminyear2005InvestRMB270Bntoupgraderailwayinfrastructure,Newrailways,electricrailways,highways,expresswaysareinphase:,InterviewswithSOEsandforeigninvestedenterprisesinChinaindicatearelativelystronginterestinoutsourcinglogisticsservices,Source:A.T.Kearneyfieldinterviewsandresearch,SOEsusuallyhaveownwarehousesandtruckingdivisions,therefore,theydemandlesswarehousing,transportationandotherrelatedvalue-addedservices.However,infaceofincreasedcompetition,SOEshaveagrowinginterestinoutsourcinglogisticsForeigninvestedenterpriseshavethehighestrequirementforlogisticsservicesintermsofrangeandquality.ThesecompaniesareextendingtheirsupplychainsintoChina-replacingmiddlemenwhousedtogetChinaorigincargototheport.MNCswillbelookingforlogisticsservicescompaniesinChinatohelpthemfillthevoidImport/exportcompanieshavetheleastdemandforlogisticsservicesproviders,becausemostofthesecompaniesalsoprovidetransportation,customsclearanceservices,etc.,Remarks,%ofRespondentswithInterestinOutsourcingLogisticsServices(2001),IncreasingInterestinOutsourcingforLogisticsNeeds,3,China-basedcompanieshaveapositiveattitudetowardspurchasingadvancedlogisticsservicesandquality,speed,andpricearethemostimportantpurchasingcriteria,Note:(1)SurveybytheChinaWarehouseAssociation(2000)Attitudesandpreferencesfordistributionof450largeandmedium-sizedenterprises(2)Therespondingenterprisesdealinelectricalhomeappliances,electronics,foodstuffsandchemicalsfordailyuseSource:Chinainfobank,ChinaWarehouseAssociate,A.T.Kearneyfiledinterviewsandresearch,7%,22%,26%,29%,44%,52%,64%,75%,Lookingfordistributionservices,Prefertransportationcompanies,Usegenerallogisticsagents,Prefertrunklineservices,Lookingfornewlogisticsagents,Hirethirdpartyagents,Hopethatnewlogisticsproviderswillprovidecomprehensivelogisticsservices,Lookingformodernlogisticscompanies,InterestinLogisticsServicesSurveyResults(2000),LogisticsServicesPurchasingCriteria-China,0.88,0.81,0.79,0.77,0.68,0.91,0.91,0.93,Network,Documentation,Reputation,InfoTracking,Professionalism,Price,ServiceSpeed,ServiceQuality,RelativeImportance,High,Avg.=0.82,IncreasingInterestinOutsourcingforLogisticsNeeds,3,Low,Onlinetransactionsprovidesanadditionalsourceofgrowthforlogisticsservices,Source:ResearchReportofChinaE-BusinessAssociationandNetworkEvaluationCenter,Apl.2001,GrowthofOnlineTransactioninChina(US$,Bn),BtoB(US$,Bn),BtoC(US$,Bn),CAGR(00-04)B2B:53%B2C:167%,GrowingITandE-Business,4,Industry-PublicinformationplatformReducingcostandoverlapininvestment,informationshareCustomers/shippersStandardbarcodingsystem,easierforoutsourcingBetterfacilitiestocommunicatewithserviceproviders,easiertomanageandsuperviseServiceproviders-IntranetCostreductionfromhigherefficiencyBetterservicequality,becauseofinternet/intranetenabledreal-timecargotracking,etc.Broaderservicerange,e.g.tradeconsulting,CurrentIndustryInitiatives,2.ServiceDemand,Customersareincreasinglydemandinghighvaluelogisticsservicesolutions,requiringglobalreachandadvancedsupplychainmanagementcapabilities,ServiceDemand-GlobalTrendsTraditionally,costreductionhasbeenthemainreasonforcompaniestooutsourcelogisticsToday,customersareincreasinglydemandingmoreadvancedservicesandend-to-endsolutions“Demand-Pull”logisticsrequiresthelogisticsserviceproviderstobeflexibleandtocontrolalargepartortheentiresupplychainLeadinglogisticsserviceprovidersaredevelopinglogisticsone-stop-shops-fromrawmaterialsourcingtodeliveryoffinishedgoodsCustomersareincreasinglyinterestedincontractswithbothfixedandvariablepricingschemes-basedonrisksharingTheopportunityforrisk-sharingcontractsisconsideredtobegreatestintransportationandinventorymanagementServiceDemand-ChinaTrendsIntheChinamarket,logisticsdemandisstillcomposedofbasicservices,suchastransportationandwarehousingGoingforward,demandforlogisticsservicesinChinawillmainlycomefromTransportation/Distribution,Warehousing/ConsolidationaswellasCustomsBrokerageandForwardingThequalityoflogisticsservicesofferedinChinaarenotgoodasindicatedbypoorperformanceonon-timedelivery,cargolossanddocumentaccuracyHowever,satisfactionlevelsforlogisticsservicesinChinaarerelativelyhigh,possiblyindicatinglowexpectations,ServiceDemand-GlobalTrends,Traditionally,costreductionhasbeenthemainreasonforcompaniestooutsourcelogistics,1.Reduceandcontroloperatingcosts2.Improvecompanyfocus3.Gainaccesstoworld-classcapabilities4.Freeinternalresourcesforotherpurposes5.Resourcesarenotavailableinternally6.Acceleratereengineeringbenefits7.Functiondifficulttomanage/outofcontrol8.Makecapitalfundsavailable9.Sharerisks10.Cashinfusion,15%25%15%10%15%6%8%3%5%4%6%20%28%10%15%10%12%7%10%10%13%,EstimatedCostSaving,Note:(1)Useof53-footequipment(2)Consolidation,schedulingandmodeselectionSource:CSFB,HardSavings(mainlytransportation)DynamicconsolidationDedicatedoperationsModeconversionCubeutilization(1)CarrieroptimizationRatemanagementInbound(2)SoftSavings(mainlywarehousing)ReverselogisticsLocationstudyInventoryDistributiondesignsystem,Area,Top-tenReasonsCompaniesOutsourceLogistics,Today,customersareincreasinglydemandingmoreadvancedservicesandend-to-endsolutions,suchassupplychainintegration,7,33,33,33,33,47,53,53,53,66,66,66,73,73,80,80,87,LaborCostSavingsTransportationCostSavingsAccesstoSkillsFreedomtoFocusonCoreCompetenciesCapitalAssetFlexibilityBalanceSheetReliefProjectManagementandStartUpImprovedCustomerServiceInventoryCostReductionAccesstoInformationSystemsSystemsIntegrationCycleTimeReductionGlobalAccessSupplyChainIntegrationFacilitationSupplyChainIntegrationImplementationFreedomFromRegulationOther,PastServiceDemand,CurrentServiceDemand,%Respondents,32,42,63,74,53,89,95,100,100,100,100,74,84,95,100,100,95,%Respondents,ExpectedFutureServiceDemand,%Respondents,20,33,93,93,100,53,66,66,73,66,66,46,53,73,66,66,60,Source:A.T.Kearney1998LogisticsSurvey,“Demand-Pull”logisticsrequiresthelogisticsserviceproviderstobeflexibleandto“control”alargepartortheentiresupplychain,Suppliers,Manufacturi