《如何看财务报表》PPT课件.ppt

Chapter3,HowFinancialStatementsareUsedinValuation,HowFinancialStatementsareUsedinValuation,Thewebpageoffersfurthertreatmentofcomparableanalysisandscreeninganalysis,aswellasanextendeddiscussionofvaluationtechniquesandassetpricing.Italsolinksyoutofundamentalresearchengines.,WhatyouwilllearnfromthisChapter,WhatavaluationtechnologylookslikeWhatavaluationmodelisandhowitdiffersfromanassetpricingmodelHowavaluationmodelprovidesthearchitectureforfundamentalanalysisThepracticalstepsinvolvedinfundamentalanalysisHowthefinancialstatementsareinvolvedinfundamentalanalysisHowoneconvertsaforecasttoavaluationThedifferencebetweenvaluingterminalinvestmentsandgoingconcerninvestments(likebusinessfirms)WhatbusinessactivitiesgeneratevalueThedividendirrelevanceconceptWhyfinancingtransactionsdonotgeneratevalue,exceptinparticularcircumstancesWhythefocusofvaluecreationisontheinvestingandoperatingactivitiesofafirmHowthedividenddiscountmodelworks(ordoesnotwork)Howthemethodofcomparablesworks(ordoesnotwork)Howasset-basedvaluationworks(ordoesnotwork)Howmultiplescreeningstrategieswork(ordonotwork)WhatisinvolvedincontrarianinvestingHowfundamentalanalysisdiffersfromscreening,Simple(andCheap)ApproachestoValuation,Fundamentalanalysisisdetailedandcostly.Simpleapproachesavoidforecastingandminimizeinformationanalysis.Buttheyloseprecision.Simplemethods:MethodofComparablesScreeningonMultiplesAsset-BasedValuation,Identifycomparablefirmsthathavesimilaroperationstothefirmwhosevalueisinquestion.Identifymeasuresforthecomparablefirmsintheirfinancialstatementsearnings,bookvalue,sales,cashflowandcalculatemultiplesofthosemeasuresatwhichthefirmstrade.Applythesemultiplestothecorrespondingmeasuresforthetargettogetthatfirmsvalue.,TheMethodofComparables,TheMethodofComparables:AnExampleforBiotechnologyFirms,TheMethodofComparables:Dell,Gateway2000andCompaq,1998,HowcheapisthisMethod?,Conceptualproblems:Circularreasoning:Howdoyouvaluethe“comparable”companies?Ifthemarketisefficientforthecomparablecompanies.Whyisitnotforthetargetcompany?Implementationproblems:FindingthecomparablesthatmatchpreciselyDifferentaccountingmethodsforcompsandtargetDifferentpricesfromdifferentmultiplesWhataboutnegativedenominators?Applications:IPOs;firmsthatarenottraded,UnleveredMultiples(thatareUnaffectedbytheFinancingofOperations),VariationsoftheP/ERatio,DividendAdjustedP/E,TypicalValuesforCommonMultiples,ScreeningAnalysis,Technicalscreens:identifypositionsbasedontradingindicators.Someofthem:PricescreensSmallstockscreensNeglectedstocksscreensSeasonalscreensMomentumscreensInsidertradingscreensFundamentalscreens:identifypositionsbasedonfundamentalindicatorsofthefirmsoperationsrelativetoprice-Price/Earnings(P/E)ratiosMarket/BookValue(P/B)ratiosPrice/CashFlow(P/C)ratiosPrice/Dividend(P/d)ratiosAnycombinationofthesemethodsispossible,HowMultipleScreeningWorks,Identifyamultipleonwhichtoscreenstocks.Ranksstocksonthatmultiple,fromhighesttolowest.Buystockswiththelowestmultiplesand(short)sellstockswiththehighestmultiples.,FundamentalScreening:ReturntoPrice-to-Book,AverageMonthlyReturnsandEstimatedBetasfromJuly1963toDecember1990forTenPrice/BookGroups.,Returnstotwofundamentalscreens,YearbyYearReturns:ValueminusGlamour,ProblemswithScreening,YoucouldbeloadinguponariskfactorYouneedariskmodelYouareindangeroftradingwithsomeonewhoknowsmorethanyouYouneedamodelthatanticipatesfuturepayoffsAfull-blownfundamentalanalysissuppliesthis,AssetBaseValuation,Valuesthefirmsassetsandthensubtractsthevalueofdebt:Thebalancesheetdoesthiscalculation,butimperfectly:ShareholdersEquity=TotalAssets-TotalLiabilitiesProblemswiththisapproach:GettingthevalueofoperatingassetswhenthereisnotamarketforthemIdentifyingvalueinuseforaparticularfirmGettingthevalueofintangibleassets(brandnames,Rthesecondisforagoing-concerninvestmentinastock.TheinvestmentsaremadeattimezeroandheldforTperiodswhentheyterminateorareliquidated.,Forterminalinvestment,=amountinvestedattimezeroCF=cashflowsreceivedfromtheinvestmentForinvestmentinequity,=pricepaidfortheshareattimezerod=dividendreceivedwhileholdingthestock=pricereceivedfromsellingtheshareattimeT.,TwoTerminalInvestments:ABondandaProject,rDistherequiredreturnonthedebtValuationissue:DiscountraterDValuationissue:DiscountraterD,TheValuationModel:Bonds,TheValuationModel:AProject,istherequiredreturn(hurdlerate)fortheproject),Valuationissues:ForecastingcashflowsDiscountrate,ValueCreation:V0I0,TheBond(novaluecreated):V0=1,079.85I0=1,079.85NPV=0.00TheProject(valuecreated):V0=1,529.50I0=1,200.00NPV=329.50,ValuationModels:GoingConcerns,Theterminalvalue,TVTisthepricepayoff,PTwhentheshareissoldValuationissues:Theforecasttarget:dividends,cashflow,earnings?Thetimehorizon:T=5,10,?TheterminalvalueThediscountrate,CriteriaforPracticalValuation,Tobepractical,werequire:1.FinitehorizonforecastingForecastingoverinfinitehorizonsisimpractical2.ValidationWhateverweforecastmustbeobservableexpost3.ParsimonyInformationgathering&analysisshouldbestraightforwardThefewerpiecesofinformation,thebetter,TheQuestionforForecasting:WhatCreatesValueinaFirm,EquityFinancingActivities?ShareIssues?ShareRepurchases?Dividends?DebtFinancingActivities?InvestingandOperatingActivities?Distinguishanticipated(exante)valueininvestingactivitiesfromrealized(expost)valueinoperationsValueiscreatedinproductandfactormarkets,TheDividendDiscountModel:TargetingDividends,DDM:Problems:Howfardoesoneproject?DoesprovideagoodestimateofVE0?(i)Dividendpolicycanbearbitraryandnotlinkedtovalueadded.(ii)Thefirmcanborrowtopaydividendsyet.doesthiscreatevalue?(iii)Liquidatingfirms?ThedividendirrelevancyconceptThedividendconundrum:Equityvalueisbasedonfuturedividends,butforecastingdivi