2012年汇丰银行CEO Stuart Gulliver 谈亚洲与国际金融.docx

2012年汇丰银行CEO Stuart Gulliver 谈亚洲与国际金融2012年汇丰银行首席执行官欧智华谈亚洲与国际金融Thanks very much. Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, Im delighted to be here today and its a real honor to be asked to open this inaugural event of the Fung Global Institute. And both in my personal capacity and as the good chief executive of HSBC, Im very proud of what Victor and William are achieving here in Hong Kong.非常感谢。尊敬的各位来宾，女士们，先生们，今天我很高兴到这里就要打开这个就职活动凤全球研究院的一个真正的荣誉。而在我个人能力与汇丰银行的优秀的首席执行官，我非常自豪的是在这里取得胜利，威廉在香港。When the center of the global economy shifts so logically does its intellectual center. We can see this shift in action today as emerging economies begin to exert their influence on the global policy agenda. It is actually only just a decade since Chinas accession to the WTO. At the time it was a highly controversial move. And how much has therefore changed just within those 10 years. Few could have foreseen then that China would now be a leading participant in the G20, or that Europe would agree to concede two seats on the IMFs executive board to make way for faster-growing economies. Or more remarkably that Europes leaders would go cap-in-hand to Beijing for help with their own debt crisis, as they did last year.当全球经济的中心位置，逻辑知识中心。我们可以看到这种转变在今天的行动，为新兴经济体开始发挥其全球政策议程的影响。它实际上只是一个十年自中国加入WTO。在当时这是一个极具争议的举动。多少也因此发生了变化只在那些10年。很少有人能预见到那时，中国将在20国集团的主要参与者，或欧洲同意承认在IMF执行董事会的两个席位以更快的经济增长方式。或更显著，欧洲的领导人会卑躬屈膝地到北京为自己的债务危机的帮助，因为他们去年做的。The financial crisis and the ongoing economic stagnation in the west, particularly in the Eurozone, have fast-forwarded the transition of economic power. Asias role is being redefined in our lifetime. And great powers need great thinkers. We need to work harder to understand better the fundamental transition in world affairs that we are all witnessing, and to acknowledge the challenges that it represents.金融危机和西部经济持续停滞，尤其是欧元区的快速转发，有经济实力的转变。亚洲的作用是在我们的一生中重新定义。大国需要伟大的思想家。我们必须更加努力地工作，更好地理解了根本性的转变在国际事务中，我们都是见证，并承认它代表的挑战。Thats why the creation of the Fung Global Institute is so welcome. It has the potential to be a center of new thinking behind the new global economy to be the think tank for the Asian Century. And so I am going to use my remarks this afternoon to suggest three areas where I believe new thinking and leadership is needed.这就是为什么凤全球研究院的造物是如此受欢迎。它是一个中心的新思维在新的全球经济是智库亚洲世纪的潜力。所以我会用我的话今天下午的建议三个方面我相信新的思维和领导能力。But first I want to talk a little bit about the context of the near future. I want to give you a sense of the new global economy as we see it at HSBC. Our own research indicates that the so-called emerging economies, have now basically emerged and now power global growth over the next four decades. They will contribute twice as much growth as the developed markets over this period and by 2050 they will be bigger collectively than the developed markets.但首先，我想谈谈近期的背景一点。我想给你一种新的全球经济中为我们在汇丰银行看到它。我们的研究表明，所谓的“新兴的经济体，现在已经基本上出现了现在电力全球增长在未来的四年。他们将两倍于发达市场在这一时期和多增长2050，他们将比发达市场更大些。Trade will be one of the primary engines of this growth as the new South-South connections revolutionize the global economy. As faster-growing markets link-up, creating new connections between Asia, the Middle East and Latin America, trade and capital flows between those areas will grow significantly, in our view, increasing tenfold by 2050.贸易将这一增长的主要引擎为新的“南南”连接改变全球经济。为快速增长的市场连接起来，创建新的连接在亚洲，中东和拉丁美洲的美国，这些地区之间的贸易和资本流动将增长显着，在我们看来，增加了十倍2050。Now the scale of the opportunity is huge in part because the economic borders between many faster-growing nations are still incredibly high. The potential has not been released. Removing these borders, such as tariffs and restrictions on migration, wont be easy, but work is already underway. Countries in Asia have already formed new political alliances. China itself is building ties around the world and trade deals with Latin America are becoming commonplace.现在的机会，规模庞大，部分是因为许多增长更快的国家之间的经济边界仍然很高。可能没有被释放。除此之外，例如关税和限制迁移，不容易，但工作已经展开。亚洲国家已经形成了新的政治联盟。中国是世界贸易协议与拉丁美洲的美国建立关系成为家常便饭。Asian markets are going to be hugely attractive. In our estimation, there are 26 economies globally which will have an average annual growth rate over 5% every year between now and 2050. 10 of them are here in Asia: beyond China and India this includes the Philippines, Malaysia, Bangladesh and the central Asian countries of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.亚洲市场将是非常有吸引力的。在我们的估计，全球有26的经济体将年均超过5%的年增长率从现在每年2050。其中10个是在亚洲：中国和印度之外，这包括菲律宾，马来西亚，孟加拉国和哈萨克斯坦的中亚国家，土库曼斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦。Factors such as high standards of education and the rule of law will be key to whether this potential is fully realized. The OECDs Pisa tests suggest that Chinas education system is overtaking many countries in the West with Shanghai leading the pack. As a result of this, and other factors, we project that Chinas income per capita will grow by more than 800% between now and 2050.如高教育水平和法治因素将决定这个潜力的充分实现。经合组织的PISA测试表明，中国的教育体系是超越许多西方国家上海领先。由于这一结果，以及其他因素，我们的项目，中国的人均收入将超过800%，在2050的增长。And yet, by 2050, the seismic shift in the global economy will have only actually just begun. Even after all this progress, and by then as the worlds largest economy, income per capita in China will still only be 32% of that in the US and so potential for further growth remains substantial.然而，2050，在全球经济中的地震将只是刚刚开始。即使所有这些进步，并成为世界上最大的经济体，中国的人均收入仍只有美国的32%，和进一步增长的潜力仍然很大。So thats a glimpse of the world as we see it. But of course there will be many challenges along the way which will require new thinking and new approaches.所以，一睹世界就像我们看到的。当然这一路上会有这将需要新的思维和新的方法的许多挑战。In our view, the first challenge is to actually learn the lessons of history. History does seem to repeat itself fairly constantly. And the first challenge, therefore, is we all need to learn the lessons of the past few years. I was in Hong Kong in 1997 and I worked closely with a number of people in this room and responding to the Asian crisis, but with the HKMA, when the Hong Kong dollar was attacked, when the Hong Kong stock exchange was attacked. And HSBC, we also worked with central banks of Thailand, Malaysia and others to help them resolve the problems that crisis brought to a head.在我们看来，第一个挑战是吸取历史教训。历史似乎相当不断重演。和第一个挑战，因此，我们都需要学习过去几年的教训。我在香港1997和我曾与这个房间里的很多人和应对亚洲金融危机，但香港金管局，当美元遭到袭击，在香港证券交易所被袭击了。和汇丰银行，我们还与泰国中央银行，马来西亚和其他国家帮助他们解决危机带来了一头的问题。And the reason why I point this out is actually it was in part this experience that informed HSBCs own response to the Global Credit Crisis in 2007. Our top markets team, including myself and a number of key colleagues, had actually been stress tested for real in Asia 10 years earlier. We had the playbook. We kind of know how to respond. Weve seen this in 1997 and 1998. So in 2007 to 2012 continuing, we have some practice about how to deal with financial market meltdowns.而为什么我指出这一点其实是这部分的经验在2007通知汇丰银行自己的应对全球信贷危机。我们的主要市场团队，包括我自己和一些关键的同事，已经进行了压力测试的真正在亚洲10年前。我们有剧本。我们都知道如何回应。我们已经看到，这在1997和1998。所以在2007到2012的继续，我们有一些实践如何应对金融市场的崩溃。Now Asia has learned the lessons of the crisis to avoid bubbles and hold large foreign exchange reserve, and of course, post-97/98 when the conventional IMF prescription was put into Asia. Just as this was happening, many western economies were walking straight into trouble. Lets take a few examples of that.现在亚洲已经学到的危机避免气泡和持有大量外汇储备的教训，当然，后97 / 98时，IMF的传统配方放在亚洲。正如这发生，许多西方经济体正陷入麻烦。让我们把那几个例子。First, in the UK. Like elsewhere in the west, UK bank lending conditions loosened significantly from the late 90s. Mortgage spreads halved. And mortgages were available for 125% of a propertys value, because of course property markets always go up as we know. The result was an unsustainable housing boom and a household debt-to-GDP ratio over 100%. That boom spurred on consumers and the trade deficit expanded from 1 to 7% of GDP. This was financed by capital inflows, aided by high UK interest rates which in turn put upward pressure on the UKs currency. The strong pound supported the idea that the whole system was technically sustainable. When it unwound sterling fell 30% in trade weighted terms, and against the US dollar it fell from a peak of 2.11 in November 2007 to a low of 1.35 just a year later.首先，在英国。像其他西方国家，英国银行的贷款条件放宽明显从90年代后期。抵押贷款息差减半。和抵押贷款提供房产价值125%的课程，因为房地产市场的不断上涨，我们知道。结果是不可持续的住房市场的繁荣和家庭债务占GDP的比率超过100%。这种繁荣刺激消费者和贸易赤字从1扩大到GDP的7%。这是由资本流入的资金，由高英国利率反过来对英国的货币升值压力辅助。坚挺的英镑支持这一想法，整个系统在技术上是可持续的。当它解开英镑的贸易加权汇率下跌30%，兑美元下跌，从十一月2.11的峰值低2007到1.35仅仅一年后。Second, take a look at the situation in the Eurozone, the stresses are strikingly similar to those caused by the dollar-peg in Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia in the 90s. Those economies suffered from an inappropriate, inflexible currency pegs, which created capital inflows that were ultimately unsustainable. This is exactly the kind of unwinding which were actually seeing in Greece and Spain today.第二，在欧元区的情况看，该应力是由在马来西亚的美元汇率造成惊人的相似，在90年代的泰国和印度尼西亚。这些国家的经济遭受了一个不恰当的，不灵活的汇率制度，造成了资金流入，最终不可持续的。这正是我们真正看到退绕在希腊和西班牙今天。In both of these examples the lessons of the Asian crisis, of building up excessive leverage against inflexible exchange rates, were not really learned. And as a result, there is a certain sense that Europe is having, in certain of its countries, an emerging markets crisis.在这两个例子亚洲危机的教训，建立过度杠杆反对不灵活的汇率，并不是真的知道。作为一个结果，有一定的意义上，欧洲是有，在它的某些国家，新兴市场危机。And the policy response to the crisis means that much of the developed world has joined the Bank of Japan in doing what it was doing back in 1997 and 1998, providing cheap liquidity to the financial system. Since 2007, the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the ECB (European Central Bank), together with the Bank of Japan have expanded their balance sheets by more than 5 trillion US dollars. Combined, the balance sheets of these banks now total 9 trillion US dollars. Inevitably this liquidity will look to the faster-growing markets in search of greater yield.和应对危机的政策意味着，许多发达国家已加入日本银行在做什么，就做回1997和1998，为金融系统提供廉价的流动性。自2007以来，美国的联邦储备银行，英格兰银行，欧洲央行（European Central Bank），连同日本央行扩大资产负债表超过5000000000000美元。结合，这些银行的资产负债表现在总计9000000000000美元。这不可避免地流动性将目光转向快速增长的市场，在更大的产量的搜索。So, while in the past, we have seen extreme credit expansion and property bubbles, and we have, to some extent, seen this in both Brazil and China, there is, by and large, evidence that the Asian markets have learn the lessons in 1997. They are ready to protect their domestic economies from asset bubbles and overleveraging while striking an appropriate balance to remain open to global trade and capital and all the benefits that globalization has delivered. In addition the Asian financial systems are better regulated and there is much more direct control. China in particular has pursued a careful approach to keep economic expansion at a manageable level. As Asia enjoys superior growth, it will increasingly attract risks such as this glut of cheap liquidity. Learning from the mistakes of the past is the best firewall we have to ensure they are not repeated. And this is an area where Europe should take its lead from Asia.因此，在过去，我们已经看到了极端的信贷扩张与房地产泡沫，我们已经看到，在某种程度上，这在巴西和中国，有证据表明，由大，亚洲市场在1997中吸取教训。他们准备保护国内经济出现资产泡沫和过度杠杆化打击时，保持开放的全球贸易和资本的所有好处，全球化提供了一个适当的平衡。此外，亚洲金融系统更加规范和有更多的直接控制。特别是中国追求经济增长在一个可控的水平一个谨慎的方法。作为亚洲拥有优越的生长，它将吸引越来越多的风险，如流动性过剩的便宜。从过去的错误中学习是我们必须确保他们没有重复的最好的防火墙。在这方面，欧洲应该从亚洲带铅。The second big challenge that we need to think about is getting the politics right. We must consider in the new order of the new global economy, how Asia can assert an appropriate influence, reflecting its growing profile in world affairs and its own interests in the resolution of key questions in the global economy.第二大挑战，我们需要考虑的是获得政治权利。我们必须在新的全球经济新秩序的考虑，亚洲如何可以断言一个适当的影响，反映了其生长曲线和在国际事务中其自身利益的关键问题的解决全球经济。Chief among these questions right now today is clearly the future of the Eurozone. We must not underestimate the importance of a block of world economic activity, encompassing 500 million people and a very significant part of global GDP. Speculation about the fate of Europes single currency is rife. Banks with significant exposures are being downgraded. The yawning disparity persists between the periphery and core between the surplus and the deficit nations. Yields on 2-year German bonds are currently 0 percent and those on Spanish 2-year bonds, 5%. So you have in Europe a risk version that says I would rather earn nothing and now I will get my money back than take any risk at all. Debt clearly remains too high.在这些问题中的首席现在显然是欧元区的未来。我们一定不要低估一块世界经济活动的重要性，涉及500000000人，在全球GDP中非常重要的一部分。对欧洲单一货币投机盛行的命运。以重大风险，银行的评级被下调。不断扩大的差距仍然存在盈余和赤字国家之间的边缘和核心之间。2年期德国债券的收益率目前是百分之0，在西班牙的2年期债券，5%。所以你有欧洲的风险的版本，说我宁愿没有了收入，现在我能拿回我的钱都不承担任何风险。债务显然是太高了。Across the industrialized world, income levels are around 10% lower than pre-crisis projections had suggested. Despite a huge monetary and fiscal stimulus I talked about, those central banks have increased their balance sheet by 5 trillion. There has been absolutely no return to business as usual at all. The financial system is far from healthy. The Eurozone capital market is under massive stress, interest rate spreads are wide and the volume of available credit continues to contract.在工业化国家，收入水平比危机前的预测已经建议降低10%。尽管巨大的货币和财政刺激我谈到，那些中央银行增加了他们的资产负债表5000000000000。我们一直都没有恢复如常。金融体系是不健康的。欧元区资本市场是巨大的压力下，利率价差较大，可用信贷规模继续合同。Against this backdrop, we think there are four essential steps to ensure that the Eurozone remains intact:在这样的背景下，我们认为这是确保欧元区仍然是完整的四个基本步骤：First, there needs to be Europe-wide deposit guarantees or deposit insurance provided by the EBA (European Banking Authority) in euros. The issue is both “is my bank solvent”, but also “is my currency going to remain with the value the euro has today”. So Europe-wide deposit insurance in euro probably provided by the EBA.首先，我们需要全欧洲的存款担保或由EBA提供存款保险（欧洲银行管理局）在欧元。问题是“我的银行溶剂”，而且“我要保持货币的价值欧元今天”。所以全欧洲的存款保险的EBA欧元可能提供。Second, we believe that we need an EU TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Programme) provided by the EFSF (European Financial Stability Facility) or, in due course, the ESM (European Stability Mechanism), to recapitalize Europes banks.第二，我们相信我们需要一个欧盟TARP（问题资产救助计划）由EFSF（欧洲金融稳定机构）提供的，在适当的时候，ESM（欧洲稳定机制），来调整欧洲银行。Third, a euro bond does need to be issued, which is the joint of several responsibility of all European countries. And that money goes down into the troubled sovereign nations to avoid them having to tack the global capital markets. Unclearly, all of this implies a move towards some form of fiscal concordat.第三，欧元债券需要发行，这是所有欧洲国家共同连带责任。那钱去陷入困境的主权国家避免他们把全球资本市场。不清楚，这一切意味着对某种形式的财政协约的举动。Clarity and leadership on these points will be vital but actually sadly its completely missing at this point in time. Although there is no evidence of the political will necessary to make this happen. In particular from the stronger currencies, all of the stronger currencies will lose countries, will lose out massively, should the Eurozone eventually fall to pieces.对这些问题的清晰与领导力将是至关重要的其实可悲的是它完全丢失在这个时间点。虽然没有证据，必要的政治意愿来让这一切发生。特别是从货币升值，本币走强会失去所有的国家，将失去大量的，欧元区应该最终瓦解。Of course, looking beyond Europe, broader issues persist. The gravitational pull of the faster growing markets is proving to be more destabilizing than many had expected. The structural decoupling witnessed over the last decade or so with faster growing nations powering forward while industrialized nations are left languishing has shifted relative prices and wages. Commodity prices are up, Western wages are stagnant and, as a result, real incomes in the west are not robust enough, hampering debt repayment. And there is a real social issue of high and structural youth unemployment in many European countries.当然，在欧洲以外的更广泛的问题，坚持。增长最快的市场引力被证明是比许多人预期的更不稳定。结构解耦见证了过去十年左右的时间增长更快的国家提供了与在工业化国家都停留已经相对价格和工资。商品价格上涨，西方工资停滞不前，作为一个结果，在西方真正的收入是不足够强大，阻碍了偿还债务。有高的结构在许多欧洲国家，青年失业的一个真正的社会问题。People talk about a two-speed European economy. In fact we are looking at a two-speed global economy. And there are potentially significant consequences to this. And therefore in the West politicians are beginning to assert control over completely new areas. At very least, central banks risk being embroiled in politics: their independence in many areas is being challenged. So getting the politics right will be vital to easing the inevitable political tensions, and preventing new imbalances and supporting the future growth I have described.人们谈论的一二速欧洲经济。事实上我们看到的是一二速的全球经济。这个问题有着潜在的重大影响。因此，在西方政客开始主张完全新的区域控制。至少，中央银行的风险被卷入政治：在很多领域的独立性受到挑战。因此获得政治权利将缓解不可避免的政治紧张局势至关重要，防止新的不平衡和支持我所描述的未来发展。And then, this brings me to the last challenge, which is we all need to test the conventional wisdom that builds up. What are the unseen factors which could undercut our vision of the future? Few saw the financial crisis coming until it was too late. The dangers of consensus and group-think are real we saw them in Asia in 1997. Very few of us foresaw what happened on July 2, 1997. It wasnt just the handover here. It was attack on the Thai Baht. And actually very few of us saw the global credit crisis coming in the summer of 2006 into the summer in 2007. So there is actually a tremendous problem with group think, the tremendous problem with that consensus view building even among the intellectual classes.然后，这给了我最后的挑战，这是我们都需要的测试，建立了常规的智慧。这可能会削弱我们对未来的愿景的看不见的因素是什么？很少看到金融危机到来的时候已经太晚了。共识和群体思维的危险是真实的我们看到他们在亚洲1997。很少有人预见到1997年7月2日发生了什么事。这不只是回归。这是对泰铢的攻击。事实上我们很少看到全球信贷危机的到来在夏季的2006到2007夏天。因此，实际上是一个巨大的问题，小组认为，与共识建筑甚至在知识阶层的巨大的问题。We cant afford to compromise the growth which will improve the lives of hundreds of millions of people over the coming decades. So we need iconoclasts we need people who will challenge the conventional thinking. We need new thinking, and organizations like this Institute will be the ones to provide it.我们不能妥协，这将提高在未来几十年里，数亿人的生命的成长。所以我们需要的人我们需要的人谁将挑战传统思维。我们需要新的思维，和这样的组织研究所将提供它的。For example, the world is expecting the role of the faster-growing markets to change as they move from being producers to consumers. Taking the broadest definition, Asias middle class is now 740 m