双语对照 - 世界经济：三分天下.doc

双语对照 - 世界经济：三分天下世界经济：三分天下THIS year has turned out to be a surprisingly good one for the world economy. Global output has probably risen by close to 5%, well above its trend rate and a lot faster than forecasters were expecting 12 months ago. Most of the dangers that frightened financial markets during the year have failed to materialise. Chinas economy has not suffered a hard landing. Americas mid-year slowdown did not become a double-dip recession. Granted, the troubles of the euro areas peripheral economies have proved all too real. Yet the euro zone as a whole has grown at a decent rate for an ageing continent, thanks to oomph from Germany, the fastest-growing big rich economy in 2010.今年对于世界总体经济来说是一个出乎意料的好年份。全球总产值提高了大概5%，增幅远超过去年，增速也远比去年所预测的快。大多数会危及金融市场的事件都在年内尘埃落定。中国经济的着陆并不困难。美国年中的经济增速变缓也没有迎来二次衰退。但是，欧洲地区的外围经济却陷入了相当的困境。不过，作为一个老牌经济体，欧元区的经济还是有相当的增长，这多半要归功于德国的雄起。2010年发达国家经济中，德国的经济增长速度稳居首位。The question now is whether 2011 will follow the same pattern. Many people seem to think so. Consumer and business confidence is rising in most parts of the world; global manufacturing is accelerating; and financial markets are buoyant. The MSCI index of global share prices has climbed by 20% since early July. Investors today are shrugging off news far more ominous than that which rattled them earlier this year, from the soaring debt yields in the euro zones periphery to news of rising inflation in China.现在的问题在于，2011年，世界经济是不是会遵循2010年的轨迹。似乎许多人会回答是。现在全世界大部分地区，消费者和商家的信心日渐增长；全球产业正在稳步上升；金融市场也活跃。MSCI全球股票指数自七月早些时候来已经攀升了20%。对于诸如欧盟外围地区猛增的债务到中国通货膨胀加剧等这些年前让人坐立不安的不利消息，现在投资者对它们不屑一顾。Earlier this year investors were too pessimistic. Now their breezy confidence seems misplaced. To oversimplify a little, the performance of the world economy in 2011 depends on what happens in three places: the big emerging markets, the euro area and America. (Yes, Japan is still an economic heavyweight, but it is less likely to yield surprises.) These big three are heading in very different directions, with very different growth prospects and contradictory policy choices. Some of this divergence is inevitable: even to the casual observer, Indias economy has always been rather different from Americas. But new splits are opening up, especially in the rich world, and with them come ever more chances for friction.年前，投资者们太悲观了。但现在他们轻轻松松，似乎又自信过头。更直白的说，世界经济在2011年的表现取决于在三个地方发生的事情，这三个地方分别是：巨大的新兴经济市场，欧元区以及美国。（没错，日本依然是一个重量级的经济市场，但它比较不可能带来惊喜。）这三巨头所领跑的方向差异极大，所预料的发展前景不尽相同，所选择的政策也相互矛盾。这些分歧有一部分是不可避免的：就算是外行的观察者也可以看出，印度的经济与美国大相径庭。但是新的隔阂，尤其是逐渐出现在发达国家中的那些隔阂势必带来更多贸易摩擦。On the rise, on the edge, on the never-never迎来增长，危机边缘，赊欠王道Begin with the big emerging markets, by far the biggest contributors to global growth this year. From Shenzhen to So Paulo these economies have been on a tear. Spare capacity has been used up. Where it can, foreign capital is pouring in. Isolated worries about asset bubbles have been replaced by a fear of broader overheating. China is the prime example (see article) but by no means alone. With Brazilian shops packed with shoppers, inflation there has surged above 5% and imports in November were 44% higher than the previous year.让我们从巨大的新兴市场说起，目前它是今年全球经济增长的最大功臣。从深圳到圣保罗，这些地方的经济早就炙手可热。闲置的生产力已被用得一干二净。一旦有可供发展的机会，外国资本马上一拥而入。对经济泡沫的单纯顾虑，早已被对经济过热的担忧所取代。中国正是一个明显但绝不是唯一的例子（见材料）。巴西当地的商店里面可见人头汹涌，相较去年11月，巴西眼下的通货膨胀率猛蹿5%，进口量也剧增了44%。Cheap money is often the problem. Though the slump of 2009 is a distant memory, monetary conditions are still extraordinarily loose, thanks, in many places, to efforts to hold down currencies (again, China leads in this respect). This combination is unsustainable. To stop prices accelerating, most emerging economies will need tighter policies next year. If they do too much, their growth could slow sharply. If they do too little, they invite higher inflation and a bigger tightening later. Either way, the chances of a macroeconomic shock emanating from the emerging world are rising steeply.低利率通常是一个难题。尽管2009年低迷的经济已经成为一个遥远的记忆，现在的货币政策却依然格外宽松。在很多地方，这样做是为了压低汇率。（中国再次成为其中代表）但是，这个组合却不能持久。为了阻止物价上涨，绝大部分新兴经济体下一年所需要的是缩紧性财政政策。如果过分紧缩，经济的增长就会明显变缓。过于宽松，又会引发高通货膨胀率，然后随之而来的必然是更收紧的财政政策。无论选哪条路，其宏观经济都有很大几率因这个选择而震动。The euro area is another obvious source of stress, this time financial as well as macroeconomic. In the short term growth will surely slow, if only because of government spending cuts. In core countries, notably Germany, this fiscal consolidation is voluntary, even masochistic. The embattled economies on the periphery, such as Ireland, Portugal and Greece, have less choice and a grim future. Empirical evidence suggests that countries in a currency union are unlikely to be able to improve their competitiveness quickly by screwing down wages and prices (see article). Worse, the financial consequences of a shift to a world where a euro-area country can go bust are only just becoming clear. Not only do too many euro-zone governments owe too much, but Europes entire banking model, which is based on thorough integration across borders, may need revisiting (see article). These difficulties would tax the most enlightened policymakers. The euro zones political leaders, alas, are a fractious and underwhelming lot. An even bigger mess seems all but certain in 2011.欧元区明显又是另外一个压力的来源，金融市场与宏观经济。只要政府一旦缩减开支，在短期内，经济的增长必然放缓。在核心国家，也就是德国，这次财政整顿是自愿的，甚至可以说是自作自受。而那些陷入困境的边缘经济体，如爱尔兰，葡萄牙和瑞典，只剩下更少的选择与更严峻的未来。过去的经验表明，在一个货币联盟中的国家并不能通过削减薪水与压低价格来快速提高自己的竞争力。（见材料）更糟糕的是，转变为一个欧元区国家的经济后果，只有破产这一结果变得越来越清楚。这不仅仅是因为太多欧元区政府占据了过多资源，还因为欧洲的整个银行模式。这个跨越国界，以彻底综合为基础的模式很可能需要检讨一番。（见材料）这些困难会让最开明的决策者心乱如麻。而欧元区的政治领袖们，唉，却是一群顽固而冷冰冰的家伙。所以，2011年，欧元区的经济必如一团乱麻。Reach for the stretch pants, Barack巴拉克，向那伸缩裤伸手吧Americas economy, too, will shift, but in a different direction. Unlike Europes, Americas macroeconomic policy mix has just moved decisively away from austerity. The tax-cut agreement reached on December 7th by Barack Obama and congressional Republicans was far bigger than expected. Not only did it extend George Bushs expiring tax breaks for two years, but it also added more than 2% of GDP in new breaks for 2011 (see article). When this is coupled with the continued bond-buying of the Federal Reserve, America is injecting itself with another dose of stimulus steroids just when Europe is checking into rehab and enduring cold turkey.美国的经济，当然也会转变，不过，是往另一个方向。不同于欧洲，美国的宏观经济政策组合已经坚决地放弃了紧缩。巴拉克奥巴马和国会共和党议员11月7号就减税达成协议，这造成的影响远比预测的要大。该协议不仅让乔治布什的减税政策又延续了两年，还为2011年增设了规模达GDP2%以上的减税新措施。（见材料）这个协议与美联储的持续增有债券配合，美国就像给自己打了另一针兴奋剂，而此时的欧洲正研究着戒毒，忍受着冷火鸡疗法。The result of this could be that American output grows by as much as 4% next year. That is nicely above trend and enough to reduce unemployment, although not quickly. But Americas politicians are taking a risk, too. Even though their countrys long-term budget outlook is famously dire, Mr Obama and the Republicans did not even try to find an agreement on medium-term fiscal consolidation this week. Various proposals to fix the deficit look set to gather dust (see article). Bondholders, who have been very forgiving of the printer of the worlds chief reserve currency, greeted the tax deal by selling Treasuries. Some investors, no doubt, see faster growth on the way; but a growing number are worried about the size of Americas fiscal hole. If those worries take hold, the United States could even see a bond-market bust in 2011.美国这一策略所造成的后果就是，明年美国的出口额将增加多达4%。这将漂亮地超过发展的趋势，也足以减少失业，只是见效没那么快。不过美国的政治家也是在冒险。尽管他们国家的长期经济负担看起来相当恐怖，本周奥巴马先生和共和党议员却连尝试着就中期财政整顿通一通气都没有。各种改善财政赤字的提议被束之高阁。（见材料）债券持有者们曾经对这个世界上最大的储蓄货币印刷者非常宽容大度，而现在他们用减持国债的行动来向这个税收政策“致敬”。毫无疑问一些投资者发现了某些方面出现了较快速的增长；但是有越来越多人担心美国财政窟窿的规模。如果这些担忧继续下去，2011年美国甚至可能迎来一个债券市场的崩盘。How much does this parting of the ways matter? The divergence between the worlds big three will compound the risks in each one. Americas loose monetary policy and concerns about sovereign defaults in the euro zone will encourage capital to flow to emerging economies, making the latters central banks reluctant to raise interest rates and dampen down inflation. Over the next five years emerging economies are expected to account for over 50% of global growth but only 13% of the increase in net global public debt. Rather than rebalancing, the world economy in the immediate future will skew even more between a debt-ridden West and thrifty East.这些意见分歧到底有多大关系呢？世界三巨头之间的分歧会成为彼此之间的风险。美国的宽松货币政策与欧元区对主权违约的关注将鼓励资本流入新兴经济国家，让后者的中央银行迟疑于提高利率和抑制通货膨胀。未来的五年内新兴经济国家的经济增长将占据世界经济增长的50%，债务却只占全球政府债务增长的13%。与其说是重新分配，不如说在可见的将来内，在债台高筑的西方与勤俭持家的东方之间世界经济将更加倾斜。The West avoided depression in part because Europe and America worked together and shared a similar economic philosophy. Now both are obsessed with internal problems and have adopted wholly opposite strategies for dealing with them. That bodes ill for international co-operation. Policymakers in Brussels will hardly focus on another trade round when a euro member is about to go bust. And it bodes ill for financial markets, s