经济学人-政局未定 企业保守发展易造就恶循环.doc

经济学人:政局未定 企业保守发展易造就恶性循环Thatstillrepresentsabigchange.尽管如此，全球政局还是发生了不小的变化。Forthepast30yearsmultinationalsindevelopedmarketshavemostlyoperatedinabenignenvironment.过去三十年里，成熟市场的跨国企业大多都在有利环境下经营。Politicalpartiesworkedwithinrelativelynarrowparameters,andpro-businesspolicies,suchastheliberalisationoftradeandofrulesonimmigration,rolledforward.有限的政治党派干预以及持续实施的亲商政策，例如贸易和移民规则自由化等。Shockswerefew.Nolonger.然而，这种风平浪静的日子算是到头了。Thepoliticalspectrumiswidening.政治影响范围正在扩大。InBritain,JeremyCorbyn,anold-fashionedleftist,controlstheLabourParty,whichwasoncetheapogeeofpro-businessleftism.一度站在亲商政策顶峰的英国左派政党工党，如今由传统左翼分子杰里米科尔宾领导。InFrance,MarineLePen,theleaderoftheNationalFront,whoboaststhatshewantstoadd“Frexit”to“Brexit”,isalmostcertaintobeoneofthefinaltwocandidatesfortheFrenchpresidencynextyear.而在法国，国民阵线领导人马琳勒庞，几乎能肯定会成为明年竞选总统的两名候选人之一，她吹嘘要追随英国的脚步，带领法国脱欧。Unprecedentedshocksarealmostroutine.这些前所未见的惊讶几乎已经变得司空见惯了。In2011Standard&PoorsdowngradedAmericassovereign-debtratingforthefirsttime.2011年，标准普尔首次降低了美国主权债评级。Greecesdefaultin2015totheInternationalMonetaryFundwasthefirstbyarich-worldcountry.2015年希腊对国际货币基金组织的债务违约成为发达国家首例。DonaldTrumpupendspoliticalconventiononadailybasis.而唐纳德川普更是每天都在颠覆政治惯例。Companiesneedtorecognisethatmanydevelopedcountriesarebecominghigh-riskmarketsthatdonotcompensateforthoserisksbydeliveringhigherreturns.企业需要认识到许多发达国家正在转变成高风险市场，但高风险并没有带来高收益。Theymayneedtoimportrisk-managementpracticesthattheyalreadyapplytoemergingmarkets:makingsurenottoconcentratetheirinvestmentsintoofewcountries;developing“emergencyresponseplans”intheeventofasuddencrisis;andplanninghowtheywillcuttheirlossesandmove,orslim,theirbusinessesifapopulistseizespower.这些企业们可能需要引进运用在新兴市场的风险管理机制：比如确保不把鸡蛋放在一个篓子里；针对突发危机制定 “紧急应对方案”；以及规划如果民粹主义者掌权，如何止损，如何转移或裁减企业资产等方案。Firmsarealreadywaryoflong-terminvestmentsgivenslowgrowth.在慢增长的局势下，众多企业已经对长期投资慎之又慎。Politicalriskcouldreinforcesuchhesitancy.政治风险可能使企业持观望态度。Forthetimebeingtheymayprefershorter-termbets.暂时选择短期投资项目。Thereisevidencethatcompaniesarestashingcashinsafesecuritiesastheywaittoseewhat“BrexitmeansBrexit”actuallymeans.有迹象表明企业正在把钱投到安全的证券里，看看 “脱欧是玩儿真的” 到底会带来什么样的影响。InAuguststerling-denominatedmoney-marketfundsheld180billion($240billion)inassets,upbyalmostafifthsincethestartoftheyear.八月，英镑货币市场基金持有1800亿英镑 (2400亿美元) 资产，较今年年初增长近20%.Yetifbusinessespullbackonlong-terminvestments,theymayonlyencouragemoreinstability.然而，如果企业退出长期投资市场，只会导致更加不稳定的局面。Aviciouscycle,oflowcorporatespendingthatencouragesstagnationthatinturnproducespopulardiscontentandmorepoliticalturmoil,mayspinfaster.企业缩减开销促使经济停滞，而经济停滞引起群众不满，导致政治更加动乱，最终加快整个恶性循环。Companiesneedtosupplementprudencewithsomethingmoreproactive.企业不应抱着小心驶得万年船心态，而应采取更加积极的措施。Defusingpopularangeratcorporateexcessesisabusinesspriorityaswellasapoliticalone.缓解公众对企业财富过剩产生的愤怒是企业经营的头等大事，同时也是其首要政治策略。Overthepast30yearscompaniesgotintothehabitofthinkingaboutthingslikeexecutivepayinpurelymarketterms.过去30年间，企业习惯性地纯粹从市场角度考虑，诸如高管薪资的问题。Forexample,theydevotedagreatdealofthoughttomakingmanagersbehavelikeownersratherthanemployees,bygrantingstockoptions.他们潜心研究如何通过给予管理者股权而使他们对企业怀有主人翁意识。Butpublicperceptionmattersasmuchascomplexcalculations.然而公众的看法跟这般深思熟虑的盘算同等重要。Firmseffortstograpplewithsuchissuescaneasilybackfire.企业在这些问题上付出了心血，结果却很有可能事与愿违。Conclavesofthesuper-richmeetingtogethertotalkabouttheillsofinequalityreekofaristocratsdebatingwhethertosharesomecrumbsfromtheirtables.富豪们秘密聚首讨论不平等的弊病，俨然像自命不凡的贵族探讨是否向穷人施舍桌边的残羹剩饭。TheWorldEconomicForumsdecisiontomake“responsiveleadership”thethemeofitsnextannualmeetinginDavosisalmostaninvitationforridicule.世界经济论坛决定以“积极响应型领导” 作为明年达沃斯峰会的主题，这一举措毫无悬念的沦为笑柄。Butthatisanargumentforthinkingharderratherthangivingup.其实这正说明企业们应该更努力反思，而不是撂下担子一走了之。By-invitationchinwagsdonotcutit.仅靠组织会谈并不能解决问题。Companiesneedtobeconsciousofpoliticalindeed,populistconsiderationsintheirday-to-dayoperations,fromhowtheysetthepayoftheirexecutivestowhotheyappointtotheirboardstohowmuchtheyspendoncorporateentertainment.企业要有意识的把政治因素尤其是民粹主义考虑到日常运营中，上到设定董事会管理层的薪资，下到计算企业娱乐的开销等。Thepriceoffreedomtodobusinessintherichworldtodayiseternalvigilance.当下，想在发达国家自由经营企业，必须保持时刻警惕的状态。1.No longer 不再例句:After about three months, I wasno longeraddicted to nicotine.大约3个月后，我就不再对尼古丁上瘾了。2.day-to-day 日常的；逐日的例句:I am a vegetarian and use a lot of lentils in myday-to