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Comment U1 因 而感到惊吓 惊 骇于 Comment U2 计划生育政策 Comment U3 hold keep sth in check 控制 制止 China s population The most surprising demographicya crisis A new census raises questions about the future of China s one child policy May 5th 2011 BEIJING from the print edition DOES China have enough people The question might seem absurd The country has long been famous both for having the world s largest population and for having taken draconian 德拉古式的 严酷的 残忍德拉古式的 严酷的 残忍 的的 measures to restrain its growth Though many people Chinese and outsiders alike have looked aghast at the brutal 野蛮的 残忍的 冷野蛮的 残忍的 冷 酷无情的酷无情的 and coercive 强迫的 胁迫的强迫的 胁迫的 excesses 过分的行为 暴行过分的行为 暴行 of the one child policy there has also often been a grudging 不情愿的 不情愿的 勉强的勉强的 acknowledgment that China needed to do something to keep its vast numbers in check Comment U4 人口出生率 Comment U5 生育年龄 Comment U6 人口更替水平 But new census figures bolster 支持 加强支持 加强 claims made in the past few years that China is suffering from a demographic problem of a different sort too low a birth rate The latest numbers released on April 28th and based on the nationwide census conducted last year show a total population for mainland China of 1 34 billion They also reveal a steep 陡的 陡峭的陡的 陡峭的 decline in the average annual population growth rate down to 0 57 in 2000 10 half the rate of 1 07 in the previous decade The data imply that the total fertility rate which is the number of children a woman of child bearing age can expect to have on average during her lifetime may now be just 1 4 far below the replacement rate of 2 1 which eventually leads to the population stabilising 稳定稳定 Slower growth is matched by a dramatic ageing of the population People above the age of 60 now represent 13 3 of the total up from 10 3 in 2000 see chart In the same period those under the age of Comment U7 施加负担 Comment U8 医保体系 Comment U9 人口红利 是指一个 国家的劳动年龄人口占总人口比重 较大 抚养率比较低 为经济发展 创造了有利的人口条件 整个国家 的经济呈高储蓄 高投资和高增长 的局面 Comment U10 性别比例失调 Comment U11 选择性堕胎 14 declined from 23 to 17 A continuation of these trends will place ever greater burdens on the working young who must support 赡养赡养 their elderly kin as well as on government run pension and health care systems China s great demographic dividend a rising share of working age adults is almost over In addition to skewing 使歪斜 使偏斜使歪斜 使偏斜 the country s age distribution the one child policy has probably exacerbated 恶化 加剧恶化 加剧 its dire 严严 重的 可怕的重的 可怕的 gender imbalance Many more baby boys are born in China than baby girls China is not unique in this other countries notably 尤其 特别地尤其 特别地 India have encountered similar problems without coercive population controls But Chinese officials do not dispute 对对 表示异议表示异议 that the one child policy has played a role China s strong cultural imperative 必要的事 必须履行的责任必要的事 必须履行的责任 for male offspring 子孙 后代子孙 后代 has led many families to do whatever they must to ensure that their one permissible child is a son In the earliest days of the one child policy this sometimes meant female infanticide 杀害婴儿杀害婴儿 As ultrasound 超声波超声波 technology spread sex selective abortions became widespread The new census data show that little progress is being made to counter this troubling trend Among newborns there were more than 118 boys for every 100 girls in 2010 This marks a slight increase over Comment U12 布鲁金斯 清华公共 政策研究中心 Comment U13 婴儿死亡率 the 2000 level and implies that in about 20 or 25 years time there will not be enough brides for almost a fifth of today s baby boys with the potentially vast destabilising consequences that could have The census results are likely to intensify 加剧 debate in China between the powerful population control bureaucracy and an increasingly vocal group of academic demographers calling for a relaxation of the one child policy Their disagreement involves not only the policy s future but also as so often in China its past One of the academics Wang Feng director of the Brookings Tsinghua Centre for Public Policy argues that China s demographic pattern had already changed dramatically by the time the one child policy began in 1980 The total fertility rate had been 5 8 in 1950 he notes and had declined sharply to 2 3 by 1980 just above replacement level Other countries achieved similar declines in fertility during the same period The crucial 关键性的关键性的 influences Mr Wang reckons are the benefits of development including better health care and sharp drops in high infant mortality rates which led people to have many children in order to ensure that at least some would survive By implication coercive controls had little to do with lowering fertility which would have happened anyway Countries that simply improved access to contraceptives 避孕器 避孕剂避孕器 避孕剂 Thailand and Indonesia for Comment U14 国家统计局 Comment U15 计划生育政策 instance did as much to reduce fertility as China with its draconian policies Taiwan which the government in Beijing regards as an integral part of China cut its fertility rate as much as China without population controls The government denies the one child policy was irrelevant It insists that thanks to the policy 400m births were averted 防止防止 which would otherwise have taken place and which the country could not have afforded Ma Jiantang head of China s National Bureau of Statistics insisted the momentum 势头势头 of fast growth in our population has been controlled effectively thanks to the family planning policy There are many reasons for the government s hard line 立场坚定的立场坚定的 defence of its one child policy One is a perhaps understandable view that China is unique and that other countries experience is irrelevant A second is that though the policy may not have done much to push fertility down at first it might be keeping it low now A third is that if controls were lifted population growth might rise In fact there is little justification 正当的理由正当的理由 for such fears in practice the one child policy varies from place to place it hardly applies to China s minorities and is more lightly applied in rural areas and there is no population boom in those parts Comment U16 海勒社会政策与管理 学院 Comment U17 布兰代斯大学 Comment U18 坚持 遵守 Anyway argues Joan Kaufman of the Heller School for Social Policy and Management at Brandeis University official support for the policy is only partly to do with its perceived 认识到认识到 merits 价值 长处价值 长处 it is also the product of resistance by China s family planning bureaucracy This has massive institutional clout 尤指政治方面的影响 门路 力量尤指政治方面的影响 门路 力量 and local governments have a vested 授予 赋予某事物合法权利授予 赋予某事物合法权利 interest in the fines collected from violators The one child policy is their raison d tre reason for being 存在的理由存在的理由 says Ms Kaufman Mr Wang and his colleagues argue the one child policy should go The target reductions in fertility rates were reached long ago Current rates he says are below replacement levels and are unsustainable The time has come for the first big step a switch to a two child policy Research by his group suggests few families in China would choose to have more than two There are signs that the academics are succeeding in their campaign to make the pop