【商业地产】北京金融街北京西环广场商业顾问服务-88DOCVIP

XIHUAN PLAZA, BEIJING 北北 京京 西西 环环 广广 场场 RETAIL CONSULTANCY - FINAL DRAFT REPORT 商商 业业 顾顾 问问 服服 务务 - 最最 后后 草草 稿稿 BEIJING FINANCE STREET CONSTRUCTION DEVELOPMENT COMPANY LIMITED 北北 京京 金金 融融 街街 建建 设设 开开 发发 有有 限限 责责 任任 公公 司司 VOLUME 1 - REPORT 第一部分 - 报告 APRIL 2003 二零零三年四月 TABLE OF CONTENTS XIHUAN PLAZA, BEIJING 西環广场 - i - APRIL 2003二零零三年四月 CHAPTER Page No. 章节 页码 1.0 INTRODUCTION 简介 . 1 - 2 1.1 ASSIGNMENT 任务介绍 1.2 SCOPE OF WORK 服务内容 1.3 REPORT STRUCTURE 报告结构 2.0 PROJECT BACKGROUND 项目介绍 . 3 - 7 2.1 LOCATION 地理位置 2.2 THE DEVELOPMENT 项目背景 2.3 CHARACTERISTICS OF SURROUNDING AREA 周边地区特征 2.4 ACCESSIBILITY/TRANSPORT LINKS 通行情况 /交通线路 3.0 BEIJING ECONOMIC OVERVIEW 北京经济分析 . 8 - 14 3.1 ADMINISTRATIVE DIVISIONS AND POPULATION 北京行政区划和人口 3.2 ECONOMIC INDICATORS 经济分析 3.3 OTHER INFLUENCING EVENTS 其他影响因素 3.4 MARKET OUTLOOK 总述 CHAPTER Page No. 章节 页码 4.0 REAL ESTATE RESEARCH 房地产市场研究 . 15 - 30 4.1 STOCK AND HISTORICAL SUPPLY OF RETAIL ACCOMMODATION 商业用房的历史供应量 4.2 MAJOR RETAIL AREAS 主要商业区域 4.3 FUTURE SUPPLY OF RETAIL ACCOMMODATION 未来商业面积的供应 4.4 OCCUPANCY RATE 入住率情况 4.5 RENTAL / PRICE ANALYSIS 租金 /售价分析 4.6 GOVERNMENT POLICY 政府政策法规 4.7 ANTICIPATED FUTURE TRENDS 未来发展趋势预测 4.8 IMPLICATIONS FOR XIHUAN PLAZA 对西环广场的影响 5.0 CONSUMER SURVEY 消费者调查 . 31 - 38 5.1 APPROACH / METHODOLOGY 步骤 /方法 5.2 DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS 消费者调研 5.3 INCOME PROFILE 收入分析 5.4 SPENDING PATTERNS 消费行为 5.5 CONSUMER PREFERENCES 影响消费者的因素 5.6 BRAND ANALYSIS 品牌分析 5.7 VIEW ON CURRENT RETAIL PROVISION 对目前商业面积供应的看法 5.8 IMPLICATIONS FOR XIHUAN PLAZA 对西环广场的影响 TABLE OF CONTENTS XIHUAN PLAZA, BEIJING 西環广场 - ii - APRIL 2003二零零三年四月 CHAPTER Page No. 章节 页码 6.0 COMPETITION ANALYSIS 竞 争对手分析 .39 - 46 6.1 APPROACH/METHODOLOGY 步骤 /方法 6.2 EXISTING COMPETITORS 现时竞争对手 6.3 COMPETITION REVIEW 竞争对手分析 6.4 CHARACTERISTICS OF EXISTING COMPETITION 目前竞争对手的特征 6.5 ANTICIPATED FUTURE COMPETITION 未来竞争对手 6.6 IMPLICATIONS FOR XIHUAN PLAZA 对西环广场的影响 7.0 INDUSTRY CONSULTATION 行业研究 .47 - 59 7.1 APPROACH 方法 7.2 MARKET OUTLOOK 总体概括 7.3 PREFERRED RETAIL LOCATIONS 希望进入的商业区域 7.4 RETAILER REQUIREMENTS 商家需求 7.5 KEY LOCATIONAL FACTORS 主要的选址因素 7.6 XIHUAN PLAZA - POSITIVE FACTORS 西环广场 -优势 7.7 XIHUAN PLAZA - NEGATIVE FACTORS 西环广场 -劣势 7.8 IMPLICATIONS FOR XIHUAN PLAZA 对西环广场的影响 CHAPTER Page No. 章节 页码 8.0 MARKET POSITIONING 市场定位 . 60 - 65 8.1 COMPETITIVE POSITION 竞争力 8.2 CATCHMENT AREAS 商圈界定 8.3 TARGET AUDIENCE 目标消费者 8.4 MARKET GAPS AND TARGET RETAILERS FOR XIHUAN PLAZA 西环广场的潜在客户和市场空间 9.0 TENANT/MERCHANDISING MIX 客户 /商品组合 . 66 - 82 9.1 MERCHANDISING STRATEGY 商品组合策略 9.2 TENANT / MERCHANDISE MIX 客户 /商品组合 9.3 ANALYSIS OF POTENTIAL SALES / RENTAL INCOME 营业额和租金预测 10.0 DESIGN REVIEW 设计评审 . 83 - 84 10.1 GENERAL DESIGN ISSUES 设计评审的总体因素 10.2 CRITICAL DESIGN ISSUES 设计要点 11.0 RECOMMENDED RETAIL CONCEPT 商业主题建 议 .85 APPENDICES 附件 1.0 INTRODUCTION 简介 XIHUAN PLAZA, BEIJING 西环广场 - 1 - APRIL 2003二零零三年四月 1.1 ASSIGNMENT 任务介绍 Insignia Brooke (“IB”) and Husband Retail Consulting Limited (“HRC”) were appointed by the Beijing Financial Street Construction Development Company Limited (“BFS”) in January 2003 to undertake a retail consultancy assignment in connection with a development in Xizhimen District, Beijing, to be known as Xihuan Plaza. 显盛保柏和 Husband Retail Consulting Limited 受北京金融街建设开发有限责任公司的委托，于 2003年 1月开始为位于西直门地区的西环广场的商业部分提供商业咨询服务。 The purpose of the assignment is to examine and investigate various issues affecting the proposed retail element of Xihuan Plaza, and to provide advice to BFS regarding the appropriate market positioning of the project, the optimum merchandise / tenant mix within the scheme, the design and layout of individual floors within the retail centre, as well as the overall concept associated with the retail element of the development. 此次服务的目的是研究影响西环广场商业部分的多种因素，为北京金融街建设开发有限责任公司提供西环广场适当的市场定位，适宜的商品组合 /客户组合，商场内部每层的设计和平面规划，以及商场整体的概念。 Various documents have been submitted to BFS for review during the course of the assignment and the interim findings of the exercise were presented to BFS on 12th March 2003. This Final Report sets out the major findings and recommendations associated with the retail consultancy assignment, including but not limited to those previously presented to BFS. 2003 年 3月 12 日，一些文件和中期报告已经提交给北京金融街建设开发有限责任公司审阅。此份最终报告中将包括研究的主 要发现和针对西环广场的商业建议，并不仅限于之前中期报告的基础上。 1.2 SCOPE OF WORK 服务内容 It was agreed that the scope of work associated with this retail consultancy would involve the following tasks : 此份商业咨询报告的内容将包括下述内容： o Market Survey 市场研究 o Competition Analysis 竞 争对手分析 o Determination of the Catchment Area 商圈消费预测 o Consultation of Local and International Retailers 国内和国际零售商的访谈研究 o Determination of the Optimum Size and Theming of the Centre 商场主题与商业规模 o Design Review 设计评审 o Analysis of Internal Layout 内部规划布局的分析 o Determination of Optimum Merchandise Mix 商品组合建议 o Determination of Potential Centre Sales 预测商场销售额 o Determination of Potential Rental Income of the Centre 商场未来租金收入的预测 1.0 INTRODUCTION 简介 XIHUAN PLAZA, BEIJING 西环广场 - 2 - APRIL 2003二零零三年四月 1.3 REPORT STRUCTURE 报告结构 Section 2 : describes the background of the project including the physical conditions associated with Xihuan Plaza. 第二章 : 西环广场的项目背景资料介绍。 Section 3 : sets out a review and analysis of economic conditions in Beijing. 第三章 : 北京经济分析 Section 4 : sets out a review of the retail sector of the real estate market in Beijing. 第 四 章 : 北京零售房地产市场分析 Section 5 : describes the approach / methodology associated with the consumer survey and sets out the major findings of the exercise. 第 五 章 ： 解释消费者调查的方法和步骤并且给出调研的主要发现。 Section 6 : describes the approach / methodology associated with the competition analysis and sets out the major findings of the exercise. 第 六 章 : 解释竞争对手分析的方法步骤论并且给出竞争对手的主要发现。 Section 7 : sets out the approach towards, and the key findings of, the consultation of local and international retailers. 第 七 章 : 给出国内 /国际零售商访谈的方法和主要发现。 Section 8 : identifies the market positioning of Xihuan Plaza, including the target market of the centre and the anticipated consumer profile of the scheme. 第 八 章 : 西环广场的市场定位以及目标市场和潜在消费者 预测 Section 9 : establishes the proposed tenant / merchandising mix and estimates the potential sales revenues and rental income to be generated from the centre. 第 九 章 : 建立提议的客户组合 /商品组合以及预测商场销售额和租金收入 Section 10 : highlights the critical design issues associated with the centre and puts forward recommended solutions the resolve these issues. 第 十 章 : 对商场设计的意见和建议 Section 11 : puts forward the recommended retail concept and presents a summary of the merits associated with the proposal. 第十 一 章 : 商场主题的建议和 优势 的总结 2.0 PROJECT BACKGROUND 项目介绍 XIHUAN PLAZA, BEIJING 西环广场 - 3 - APRIL 2003二零零三年四月 2.1 LOCATION 地理位置 Xihuan Plaza is situated within the central part of Xizhimen in Xicheng, immediately to the west of the existing railway station. It is bounded Xizhimenwei Main Road to the south, Gaibanhe to the north, West 2nd Ring Road to the east and Gaoliang Bridge to the west. 西环广场位于西城区的西直门地区，位于西直门地铁的西侧。西环广场南侧是西直门外大街，北侧是盖板 河，东临西二环，西临高粱桥。 图 2.1：西环广场位置图 资料来源：显盛保柏 The development is situated in a prominent location and enjoys a high degree of visibility from various different vantage points, in particular from the northwest, where the majority of the developments are relatively low rise. 该项目位于非常显著的位置，从各个方面的可视性都很好，尤其是从项目的西北侧，多为低密度住宅。 The site is adjacent to a public transport interchange and railway station and there is therefore a very high volume of pedestrian flow in the vicinity of the site. Based upon an informal enquiry with a representatives of the subway, there are currently approximately 120,000 passengers per day passing through the Xizhimen subway, with an additional 32,000 passengers interchanging between the subway and the light rail transit station. 项目地块近临公交枢纽、地铁和轻轨，所以在项目周边聚集了大量的人流。根据与北京地铁运营总公司工作人员的确认，目前每天乘坐西直门地铁的人数有 12 万人次，另外有 32,000 人次为轻轨和地铁换乘者。 表 2.1：地铁及轻轨日客流量 线路 出口人数 入口人数 总计 地铁 60,000 60,000 120,000 轻轨 6,000 6,000 12,000 换乘 16,000 16,000 32,000 合计 82,000 82,000 164,000 资料来源：显盛保柏 西西 环环 广广 场场 2.0 PROJECT BACKGROUND 项目介绍 XIHUAN PLAZA, BEIJING 西环广场 - 4 - APRIL 2003二零零三年四月 It is estimated that approximately 12,000 people pass through Xizhimen light rail transit station and approximately 150,000 people use the at grade road network. Therefore, the current daily pedestrian flow in the immediate vicinity of the site has been assessed to be of the order of 320,000 to 350,000 persons. Assuming a growth rate of 20%-25% in connection with the railway patronage, it is anticipated that the pedestrians in the immediate vicinity of Xihuan Plaza could reach a level of 350,000 to 400,000 persons per day in the medium term. 预计每天出入西直门轻轨的人数有 12,000 人次；还有每天约有 15万人次使用西直门的路上交通工具，估计每天过往西环地区的人数约有 32-35 万人次。综合西环地区的地上和地下交通，根据西直门地铁工作人员介绍，轻轨乘客每年增长率将在 20-25%之间，预计2006年西环地区每天过往人口将达到 35万 -40万人次，甚至会更多。 表 2.2：西直门地区公交线路总站发车情况 线路 首车时间 未车时间 发车次数 334 5:30 22:30 340 多次 /天 360 支 5:30 22:15 200 多次 /天 375 5:15 23:00 300 多次 /天 375 支 5:20 21:30 200 多次 /天 392 5:30 21:00 200 多次 /天 65 5:00 23:00 200 多次 /天 902 5:30 20:30 200 多次 /天 612 5:45 20:15 378 次 /天 722 6:00 21:30 72 次 /天 749 6:00 21:30 260 次 /天 904 5:10 20:30 320 次 /天 933 5:30 20:00 235 次 /天 资料来源：显盛保柏 2.2 THE DEVELOPMENT 项目背景 Xihuan Plaza is situated upon an elongated site which has an area of approximately 59,900 m. The development will have a total gross floor area of 264,000 square metres, of which 97,000 square metres is within the basement of the development, and 167,000 square metres is above the ground level. The project is due to be completed in June 2005. 西环广场占地 5.99万平方米 , 总建筑面积为 26.4万平方米，地上部分 16.7 万平方米，地下部分 9.7 万平方米，预计竣工时间为 2005年 6月。 2.0 PROJECT BACKGROUND 项目介绍 XIHUAN PLAZA, BEIJING 西环广场 - 5 - APRIL 2003二零零三年四月 Xihuan Plaza is a comprehensive development comprising the following elements : 项目包括以下组成部分： o office accommodation of 89,000 m 写字楼面积为 8.9万平方米 o a shopping mall of 91,000 m, accommodated within seven floors between Basement One and the Sixth Floor of the development 商业用房面积为 9.1万平方米 , 从地下一层到地 上六层 o a public transport interchange area of 15,000 m 公交环路面积 15,000平方米 o 2,000 carparking spaces 2,000 个车位 2.3 CHARACTERISTICS OF SURROUNDING AREA 周边地区特征 There are a wide range of different land uses within Xizhimen and the surrounding area, including residential, commercial, cultural, institutional and tourist related uses. 西直门及周边地区集中了多种类型的项目，包括住宅，写字楼，教育，政府机构和旅游景点。 Xinjiekou residential area is located to the east of the development. It is one of the oldest districts in Beijing with low density residential accommodation which is normally occupied by low income groups. The area is currently under re-construction and a number of new high quality developments have been built within the area, such as Ocean Prospect, Jin Hui Jia Yuan and Silver City. The average sale price associated with these developments is approximately RMB 8,000 per square metre, which is significantly higher than the average of RMB 4,500 per square metre in Beijing. 新街口住宅区位于西环广场的东侧。以前该地区是北京的老城区，住宅密度比较低，居民消费水平不高。目前西直门地区正在实施城区改造的工程，新建了一些高档住宅，包括远洋风景，金晖嘉园，银都中心等，平均售价为 8,027 元 /平方米，高于全市平均 4,500 元 /平方米几乎一倍。 It should be noted that a total of 4,500 high-class residential units have been or will be completed within 2 kilometres of Xihuan Plaza between 2001 and 2003. Therefore, upon completion of the urban reconstruction, it is anticipated that the average income level of the households within the area will increase, and that there will also be an increase in the purchasing power of these households. 在离西环广场方圆 2公里的范围内，从 2001 年到 2003年约有 4,500套高档住宅落成，一些高档住宅项目正在建设。所以，随着西环地区高档住宅的建设，该区居民的平均收入在提高，同时消费水平也在不断提高。 Xihuan Plaza is also in close proximity to Zhongguancun to the north west, Jinrongjie to the south east, and Beijing Zoo to the west . 除了东边为新街口住宅社区外，西环广场 西北临近中关村，东南临近金融街，西边紧靠北京动物园。 In addition, a number of institutions and universities are located in the area, including Northern Transportation University, Beijing Building Construction Research Institute, China University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing Normal University, and the Finance and Banking Institute. 西环广场周边地区包括了几所大学，其中有北方交通大学、北京建筑工程学院、中国政法大学，中国邮电大学，北京师范大学以及财政金融学院。四星级的德宝饭店位于西环广场的西侧。 2.0 PROJECT BACKGROUND 项目介绍 XIHUAN PLAZA, BEIJING 西环广场 - 6 - APRIL 2003二零零三年四月 2.4 ACCESSIBILITY / TRANSPORT LINKS 通行情况 /交通线路 Xihuan Plaza is adjacent to the transportation hub of Xizhimen and therefore is easily accessible via different modes of transportation. Being a major interchange point between the various railways including the subway, light transit and Beijing railway, the area has very good accessibility via an integrated rail transportation network to all parts of Beijing. 西环广场为交通枢纽，所以可以通过不同的交通方式到达。西环广场更是地铁、轻轨的换乘中心，通过轻轨和地铁的立体交叉网络可以到达北京各个部分。 In addition to railway facilities, the area is also well served by a large number of bus routes, as a public transport interchange is located adjacent to the light rail transit station. As illustrated with the list of bus routes in Figure 2.2, the coverage of the bus routes is very extensive and extends to Huilongguan in the north, Xiangshan and Shijingshan to the west, Wangjing to the east and Daxinghuangcun to the south. 除了轨道交通，西环广场还靠近多 路公交线路的总站。图 2.2 是西直门公交线路图，公交路线覆盖了大部分的北京城：北至回龙观，西至香山和石景山，东至望京，南至大兴黄村。 图 2.2：西环广场公共交通示意图 资料来源：显盛保柏 However, it has also been noted that there is often traffic congestion in the area adjacent to the Xizhimen Bridge, immediately next to the development. In addition, the existing design of the road network in front of Xihuan Plaza is not the optimum from the perspective of the development, as drivers find it difficult to turn into the development when they see the development from the bridge. This issue will need to be taken into consideration the finalising the access arrangements to associated with the project. 但是，西直门立交桥就在西环广场的旁边，经常出现交通堵塞。而 且由于立交桥设计的原因，当消费者在桥上看到西环广场时，很难 直接到达西环广场。这点希望开发商在最终安排西环广场交通组织时将这个因素考虑进去。 西西 环环 广广 场场 交交 通通 示示 意意 图图 西西 环环 广广 场场 2.0 PROJECT BACKGROUND 项目介绍 XIHUAN PLAZA, BEIJING 西环广场 - 7 - APRIL 2003二零零三年四月 In addition, with regard to pedestrian routes, whilst accessiblity from the north is good, the pedestrian access for people wishing to access the development from the south is not particularly convenient as a result of the existence of the main road and bridge to the south of the development. This issue will need to be addressed when considering the entrance arrangements associated within the development. 关于步行路线，对西环广场北部的消费者很方便，但从南面过来的消费者很难越过立交桥到达西环广场。这方面的问题需要开发商在设计商场出入口时考虑进去。 In overall terms, Xihuan Plaza has the advantage of excellent transport links and therefore has the potential to attract a significant number of costumers to the project, particularly from the north-western part of Beijing. 总体来说，西环广场的优势在于极好的交通，所以可以带来大量的客流，尤其是吸引北京西北部的消费者。 APPENDICES 附件 2.1 西环广场周边写字楼项目示意图 2.2 西环广场周边住宅项目示意图 2.3 西环广场周边酒店示意图 2.4 西环广场周边大专院校示意图 2.5.1 西环广场附近交通线路列表（一） 2.5.2 西环广场附近交通线路列表（二） 3.0 BEIJING ECONOMIC OVERVIEW 北京经济分析 XIHUAN PLAZA, BEIJING 西环广场 - 8 - APRIL 2003二零零三年四月 3.1 ADMINISTRATIVE DIVISIONS AND POPULATION 行政区划和人口 Beijing, the capital of China, has a site area of 16,807.8 square kilometres and comprises 18 districts and counties. The city can be divided into 4 regions: 北京市总面积为 16,807.8平方公里，总共包括了 18个区、县，可分为四个区域 : o City Proper (Dongcheng District, Xicheng District, Chongwen District and Xuanwu District) 市区 (东城区，西城区，崇文区和宣武区 ) o City Area (Chaoyang District, Haidian District, Fengtai District, and Shijingshan District) 城区 (朝阳区，海淀区、丰台区和石景山区 ) o Inner Suburbs (Mentogou District, Fangshan District, Tonzhou District, Shunyi District, Changping District, and Daxing District) 郊区 (门头沟区，房山区，通州区，顺义区，昌平区和大兴区 ) o Outer Suburbs (Pinggu County, Huairou County, Miyun County, and Yanqing County) 远郊区县 (怀柔区，平谷县，密云县和延庆县 ) The urban area of Beijing has expanded rapidly in the past 10 years and the current planned boundary of the urban area extends to Dingfuzhuang in the east, Shijingshan in the west, Qinghe in the north and Nanyuan in the south, comprising an area of 1,041 square kilometres. The future central city area will primarily be the area within the 4th Ring Road. The current built-up area in Beijing is approximately 500 square kilometres, accounting for 50% of the planned area, of which 158 square kilometres is located within the 3rd Ring Road. 目前北京规划市区范围是东至定福庄，西至石景山，北至清河，南至南苑，规划面积 1,041 平方公里，未来的市中心地区大体在四环路内。目前已经建成区面积为 490 平方公里，已经完成规划面积的47%，其中三环以内的面积为 158 平方公里。 图 3.1：北京行政区划图 资料来源：显盛保柏 The registered population of Beijing in 2002 was 11.36 million people, with an additional itinerant population of approximately 3 million people. The total population residing in Beijing in 2002 was 14.40 million. As at the end of 2002, the registered population in the city proper was 2.41 million and that in the city area was 4.49 million, with an average household size of 3 persons. The population density in the city proper and city area is 27,700 persons per square kilometre and 3,500 per square 3.0 BEIJING ECONOMIC OVERVIEW 北京经济分析 XIHUAN PLAZA, BEIJING 西环广场 - 9 - APRIL 2003二零零三年四月 kilometre respectively. 2002 年，北京市户籍人口为 1,136.3万人，流动人口约有 300万人。2002 年底，北京常住人口有 1,423.2 万人口。 2002年底，北京市区户籍人口 241 万人，人口密度是 27,700 人 /平方公里；城区户籍人口 449万人，人口密度是 3,500 人 /平方公里。全市平均户均人口 3人。 The population of Beijing has grown by approximately 0.192% per annum over the last ten years. There has also been a gradual shift of population from the city proper to suburban areas as a result of the extensive urban regeneration programme being pursued in Beijing. It is expected that the population level will be relatively stable in the short to medium term, and that the redistribution of the population to the suburban areas will continue. 北京的人口在过去十年间平均年增长率是 0.192%。由于北京市区重新建设的原因，北京人口也出现了从市区向郊区移动的趋势。预计北京的人口在中短期内比较稳定，从长期发展看，继续人口郊区化。 In the past 10 years, the registered population of Beijing has grown from 10.4 million in 1992 to 11.36 million in 2002, an average increase rate of 0.192% per annual. 在过去的 10年间，北京户籍人口数量由 1,044.9万（ 1992 年）增长到 1,136.3万（ 2002 年），平均年增长率为 0.192%。 Given that residential development is currently focused in the suburban area, as against the city proper, the overall population of the city is growing more rapidly than the pace of increase in the city proper. Approximately 3.81 million people lived in the city area in 1994, which has increased to 4.49 million in 2002, whilst the population of the city proper has decreased from 2.44 million in 1994 to 2.41 million in 2002. 由于北京住宅发展向城区 和郊区发展，所以城区人口增长速度高于市区。 1994 年北京市城区人口为 381.5 万人， 2002 年增长到 448.6万人；同时 1994 年的市区人口为 243.6万， 2002 年下降为 240.6万人。 3.2 ECONOMIC INDICATORS 经济分析 (i) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 国内生产总值 Beijing has experienced rapid economic growth in the past 20 years. The GDP increased from RMB 59.89 billion in 1991 to RMB 284.57 billion in 2001, with an average growth of 10.86 % per annum. In 2002, Beijing achieved a GDP of RMB 313 billion, representing a growth of 10.2% from the previous year. According to the preliminary forecast of the Statistics Bureau, the GDP within the period between January and February 2003 was RMB 39.67 billion, an increase of 12.1% over the same period in 2002. 在过去的 20年内，北京的经济高速发展，国内生产总值由 1991 年的 598.89 亿元，增长到 2001 年的 2,845.7 亿元，平均年增长率为10.86%。 2002 年，北京国内生产总值已经达到了 3,130 亿元，较 2001年同期增长 10.2%。根据北京统计局的初步统计， 2003 年 1-2月，北京国内生产总值为 396.7亿元，较去年同期增长 12.1%。 3.0 BEIJING ECONOMIC OVERVIEW 北京经济分析 XIHUAN PLAZA, BEIJING 西环广场 - 10 - APRIL 2003二零零三年四月 图 3.2: 北京国内生产总值增长情况 资料来源：北京统计年鉴 The GDP per capita in Beijing has increased rapidly, from RMB 5,782 in 1991 to RMB 27,746 in 2002, with an average growth rate of 10.08 % per annum over the past 12 years. 北京人均国内生产总值也从 1991 年的 5,782 元快速增长到 2002 年的 27,746 元，这 12 年间的平均年增长速度为 10.08%。 It is anticipated that, given the rapid growth of the economy over the past 20 years and the fact that the economy in Beijing is now more mature, the pace of economic growth in Beijing will now stabilize. Based upon the “Tenth Five-Year Plan of Beijing” (2001-2005), the annual growth rate of GDP is expected to be maintained at a level of approximately 9% per annum during this period. 北京的经济在经过 20 年高速增长后越来越成熟，预计今后北京经济发展速度将放缓。根据北京“第十个五年计划（ 2001-2005）”，北京国内生产总值的平均年增长速度为 9%。 (ii) Total Retail Sales 社会消费品零售总额 The total retail sales in Beijing increased from RMB 35.78 billion in 1991 to RMB 159.4 billion in 2001, representing an increase of 16.27% per annum. The total retail sales in 2002 equated to RMB 174.5 billion, accounting for 55.7% of the GDP of Beijing. The total retail sales between January and February 2003 represented a sum of RMB 32.29 billion. It is anticipated that the retail sales for the whole of 2003 will be RMB 193.8 billion, a rate of growth of 11% over that of 2002. 北京社会消费品零售总额 1991 年为 357.8 亿元， 2001 年为 1,593.5亿元，平均年增长率为 16.27%。 2002 年北京社会消费品零售总额为 1,744.8亿元，占北京国内生产总值的 55.7%。 2003年 1-2月，北京社会消费品零售总额为 322.9亿元，预计全年为 1,938 亿元，预计较 2002 年增长 11%。 3.0 BEIJING ECONOMIC OVERVIEW 北京经济分析 XIHUAN PLAZA, BEIJING 西环广场 - 11 - APRIL 2003二零零三年四月 图 3.3：北京历史社会消费品零售总额（ 1996-2002） 资料来源：北京统计局 According to the “Tenth Five-Year Plan of Beijing”, the Government predicts that total retail sales will maintain an annual growth rate of 10% per annum between 2001 and 2005. It is anticipated that this steady growth rate will enhance the development of the retail market in Beijing. 根据“北京第十个五年计划”，预计在 2001 年 -2005 年间，北京社会消费品零售总额的平均年增长率维持在 10%的水平。这种稳定的增长率将刺激北京零售市场的发展。 (iii) Disposable Income 可支配收入 According to the Beijing Statistics Yearbook 2002, the annual disposable income of urban residents in Beijing increased from RMB 2,040 in 1991 to RMB 12,463.92 in 2002. The disposable income for urban residents in February 2003 was RMB 1,436 per month. 根据北京统计年鉴的数据， 1991 年北京城镇居民可支配收入为2,040元 /月， 2002 年城镇居民人均可支配收入已经增长到 12,463.92元 /月。 2003 年 2月，北京城镇居民可支配收入 1,436 元 /月。 图 3.4： 北京历年城镇居民收入和消费性支出情况（ 1995-2002） 资料来源： 北京统计局 It should, however, be noted the level of disposable income as published by the Government may not reflect the level of affordability and the living standard of the population as the income recorded by the Government does not include other additional welfare payments and allowances enjoyed by employees such as housing, medical, etc., which are commonly offered to employees in Government Departments, as well as state owned and domestic private companies. 无论如何，在此值得注意的是，统计年鉴中公布的人均可支配收入并不能真正地反映出北京居 民的生活水平和实际收入，因为政府统计的数据中可能并不完全包括政府工作人员、外资和国营企业员工的金融收入，住房、医疗补贴，奖金等等。 3.0 BEIJING ECONOMIC OVERVIEW 北京经济分析 XIHUAN PLAZA, BEIJING 西环广场 - 12 - APRIL 2003二零零三年四月 (iv) Consumer Price Index 消费价格指数 The consumer price index has risen from 98.2 in December 2002 to 100.9 in February 2003. 2003 年 2月，居民消费价格指数为 100.9。 2002 年 12月的居民消费价格指数为 98.2。 图 3.5:北京历年消费价格指数 资 料来源：北京统计局 (v) International Companies 外资企业 There has been a significant increase in the number of international companies in Beijing over the last ten years. A total of 17,535 new international companies registered in Beijing between 1991 and 2002, representing an annual average of 1,461 companies. The number of employees of international companies has also increased. 北京外商投资力度持续增长，自 1991年至 2002 年，北京共新批三资企业 17,535 家，平均每年新增 1,461 家。三资企业雇员数量也在持续增加。 According to a survey undertaken by the Beijing Taxation Bureau in 2000, the average monthly income of employees working in international companies was approximately RMB 5,625, which was significantly higher than the average income in Beijing in the same period. This group of people has high purchasing power and will create a significant level of retail demand. 根据 2000 年北京税务局的报告数字显示，外资企业员工的平均工资水平为 5,625 元 /月，大大高出政府公布的人均可支配收入。这些高收入人群具有较高的消费能力，同时大大增加了消费需求。 表 3.1：外企公司平均薪资水平 职位 月工资（元） 平均工资（元） 大约员工人数 董事 8,000-25,000 16,500 1 经理 5,500-15,000 10,250 3 主管 4,000-10,000 7,000 9 员工 2,500-6,000 4,250 27 总数 /平均数 5,625 40 资料来 源：北京税务局 (vi) Number of Visitors 旅游人数 In the past 5 years, the number of overseas visitors to Beijing has increased rapidly. The number of overseas visitors was 2.2 million in 1998, increasing to 3.14 million in 2002, representing a total increase of 41%. 来京旅游人数在过去的 5年中也快速增加，国际游客从 1998 年的220.1万人，增长到 2002 年的 310.4万人，增长 41%。游客的购买能力也是北京零售市场需求的组成部分。 1 1 1 . 61 0 5 . 31 0 3 . 11 0 2 . 41 0 0 . 61 0 3 . 59 8 . 296981001021041061081101121141996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002%3.0 BEIJING ECONOMIC OVERVIEW 北京经济分析 XIHUAN PLAZA, BEIJING 西环广场 - 13 - APRIL 2003二零零三年四月 3.3 OTHER INFLUENCING EVENTS 其他影响因素 (i) Chinas Entry into the WTO 中国加入 WTO The entry of China into the WTO in 2001 will have a positive impact upon the economy of Beijing. 中国在 2001 年加入 WTO，将刺激中国经济的发展。 With Chinas entry to the WTO, it is anticipated that the number of international companies entering the Beijing market will continue to increase, which will result in an increase in the average level of income as well as the level of affordability of people in Beijing. 随着中国成功加入世界贸易组织，预计将有越来越多的外资公司进入中国市场，所以北京居民的平均工资水平将继续增加，购买力和消费水平也将继续增加。 In addition, the retail industry will develop further as there will be greater opportunities for international retailers to enter into the retail sector in China. 另外，零售市场将有更进一步的发展，将为国际零售商进入中国提供更多的机会。 (ii) Beijing Olympics in 2008 The fact that Beijing will host the Olympic Games in 2008 will also benefit the economy of the city. 北京在 2008 年将举办奥运会，也将促进中国经济的快速发展。 Beijing has already benefited from the Olympics in 2008 via the increased attention which the city has received since it was announced that Beijing would host the Olympics. With the increasing status of Beijing, it is expected that Beijing will become more attractive to tourists. The continuous influx of visitors, which usually have a higher purchasing power and desire for consumption, will help improve the retail business in Beijing. 目前可以看到北京已经受益于 2008 年的奥运会。由于北京在世界地位的提高，相信北京将更加吸引外国游客。游客将会带来更高的消费能力和消费需求，进而带动北京零售市场需求的增长。 3.4 MARKET OUTLOOK 总述 This analysis of key economic indicators demonstrates that future economic conditions in Beijing are likely to be strong, which will be in favour of the development of the retail market in Beijing. 根据上述北京经济的分析，未来北京经济将持续增长，前景乐观，这将为北京零售市场的发展带来刺激和保证。 With the continued growth of the economy in Beijing, it is anticipated that the disposable income of residents in Beijing will increase and that residents will seek a higher quality of living. 随着北京经济的持续增长，预计北京人均收入水平也继续增长，人们对生活品质的要求也不断提高。 It is therefore anticipated that demand from consumers will increase in the short to medium term, and that this will result in an overall expansion of the retail sector in Beijing. 所以预计消费者需求在中短期内将增长，同时也将引起北京零售市场的整体扩张。 名词解释 GDP： Refers to gross domestic product calculated at market prices , which is the final product of all resident units in a country (or region) during a certain period of time . 3.0 BEIJING ECONOMIC OVERVIEW 北京经济分析 XIHUAN PLAZA, BEIJING 西环广场 - 14 - APRIL 2003二零零三年四月 国内生产总值： 是按市场价格计算的国内生产总值的简 称。它是一个国家（地区）所有常住单位在一定时期内生产活动的最终结果。 Total retail sales of consumer goods: refers to the sum of retail sales of consumer goods to urban and rural residents by establishments in the wholesale, retail, catering, manufacturing and other industries of various ownerships. The indicator is used to show the supply of consumers goods through various channels to households and institutions to meet their demands , and is therefore very important for the study of the issues on peoples livelihood , on the purchasing power goods and on the circulation of money . 社会消费品零售额： 指各种类型的批发零售贸易业、餐饮业、制造业及其他业对城乡居民、社会集体的消费品零售额。这个指标反映通过各种商品流通渠道向居民和社会集体供应的生活消费品以满足他们生活需要，是研究人民生活、社会消费品购买力、货币流通等问题的重要指标。 Disposable Income Of Urban Households ： Refers To The Total Actual Income Of Households After Individual Income Tax. 可支配收入 :指居民家庭在支 付个人所得税后，所余下的实际收入。 Expenditure On Consumption Of Urban Households: Refers to total expenditure of the sample households on consumption in daily life. 消费性支出： 指被调查的城市居民家庭用于日常生活的全部支出。 Consumer price index: reflects the general trend and extent in prices of consumer goods and services purchased by urban and rural residents, including that of urban residents and rural residents. 居民消费价格指数 :是反映居民家庭所购买的生活消费品和支付的服务项目价格变动总趋势和程度的一种综合价格指数，分为城市居民消费价格指数和农村居民消费价格指数。 APPENDICES 1.1 北京市 “十五 ”时期商业发展规划 细则 1.2北京市流通业发展分类指导（ 2003 年 3月 4 日）细则 4.0 REAL ESTATE RESEARCH 房地产市场研究 XIHUAN PLAZA, BEIJING 西环广场 - 15 - APRIL 2003二零零三年四月 4.1 STOCK AND HISTORICAL SUPPLY OF RETAIL ACCOMMODATION 商业用房的 历史供应量 The total inventory of retail accommodation in Beijing as at the end of 2002 was approximately nine million square metres in terms of net floor area, including the area dedicated to department stores, shopping centres, supermarkets, hypermarkets, wholesale markets as well as street-front shops. 截至 2002 年，北京共有 900万平方米的各类型商业面积。这些商业面积可分为百货公司、购物中心、超市、自由市场以及街边店铺五大类。 As at March 2003, large-scale shopping complexes (with a net floor area of over 10,000 square metres) in the urban area of Beijing comprised a total of 1.79 million square metres in terms of gross floor area, of which 1.37 million square metres was dedicated to department stores, accounting for up to 77% of the retail accommodation. 截至到 2003年 3月，北京在城区范围内大型商场（营业面积超过 1万平方米的商场）面积已经达到了 179 万平方米（建筑面积），其中百货公司的面积为 137万平方米，占北京大型商场面积的 77%。 图 4-1： 北京大型百货公司历史供应情况（ 1955-2002） 资料来源：显盛保柏 The high proportion of department stores in Beijing is primarily due to the current stage of development of the retail sector in Beijing. The first large-scale shopping destination in Beijing was the Wangfujing Department Store, completed in 1955, followed by the Xidan Department Store in 1970 and Scitech Shopping Centre in 1992. All of these retail properties are provided in the form of department stores and are popular with the people of Beijing, as it is possible to purchase a wide variety of goods and products including fashion, shoes, electronic products, food and other merchandise within one single destination. 北京百货公司所占比例比较高的主要是因为零售市场的发展。北京第一家大型百货公司是王府井百货大楼，建于 1955年，之后有 1970年开业的西单商场和 1992 年开业的赛特购物中心等。这些商场都是典型的百货公司，深受北京市民的欢迎，他们可以在这些百货公司买到各种商品，包括服装，鞋，电器，食品以及其他日用品。 Since 1990, department stores have developed rapidly in Beijing, and the average annual floor area dedicated to department stores completed during the period between 1990 and 2002 reached 98,277 square metres in terms of gross floor area, or 55,485 square metres in terms of net floor 2 7 . 5657 9 . 4371 1 6 . 6328 8 . 660 611057078901903 0 1 . 29642405 1 . 318304 6 . 5256617305240601 7 2 . 20501001502002503003501955 1970 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20020 0 0 S q u a r e M e t r e s 1 , 0 0 0 平方米G r o s s A r e a 建筑面积 B u s i n e s s A r e a 营业面积4.0 REAL ESTATE RESEARCH 房地产市场研究 XIHUAN PLAZA, BEIJING 西环广场 - 16 - APRIL 2003二零零三年四月 area. A significant level of floor space was completed in 1998, equating to 365,000 square metres of gross floor area, or 170,000 square metres of net floor area, as a result of the completion of the Sun Dong An Plaza, New World Centre, SOGO Department Store and Huatang YOKADO Shilipu Department Store in the same year. 北京大型百货公司从 1990 年开始迅速发展， 1990 年至 2002 年间平均年新供应量为 9.8万平方米的建筑面积， 5.5万平方米的营业面积。1998 年的供应量比较大，为 28.7万平方米的建筑面积， 16.5万平方米的营业面积。 1998 年开业的百货公司有华堂商场十里堡店，新东安市场，庄胜崇光百货和新世界商场一期。 The supply completed in 2002 was 190,000 square metres (gross) or 96,000 square metres (net), with new developments including Huantang YOKADO Yayuncun Department Store, LCX, and the Hualian Anzhen Department Store. Currently, there are 33 large-scale department stores in Beijing, occupying 1.37 million square metres (gross) or 770,000 square metres (net), equivalent to an average size of 42,000 square metres (gross) for each department store. 2002 年共有 190,000平方米的新商场供应（建筑面积），营业面积为96,000 平方米，包括华堂商场亚运村店， LCX，安贞华联，贵友方庄店，燕莎奥特莱斯。截至 2003年 3月，北京有约 33家大型百货公司（营业面积超过 1万平方米以上），共提供约 137万平方米的建筑面积，营业面积 77万平方米。百货公司平均的建筑面积为 4.2万平方米。 4.0 REAL ESTATE RESEARCH 房地产市场研究 XIHUAN PLAZA, BEIJING 西环广场 - 17 - APRIL 2003二零零三年四月 图 4.2：北京主要商业区分布图 资料来源：显盛保柏 阜成门 -复兴门地区 西单地区 北三环地区 朝阳门外地区 燕莎地区 建国门地区 宣武门 -前门 -崇文门地区 王府井地区 公主坟地区 亚运村地区 CBD地区 4.0 REAL ESTATE RESEARCH 房地产市场研究 XIHUAN PLAZA, BEIJING 西环广场 - 18 - APRIL 2003二零零三年四月 The concept of a shopping centre only emerged in Beijing in the late 1980s, with the first shopping centre being the underground mall at the Palace Hotel, followed by Phase I of the China World Trade Centre in 1990. The major differences between a shopping centre and a department store relate to the floor layout, the mode of payment by customers, leasing arrangements and the approach to centre management. Merchandise in a department store is generally displayed via open counters and kiosks and payments are usually handled via a central cashier desk. However in a shopping centre, floor area is divided into individual enclosed units with circulation areas leading to each unit. Each retailer occupies a unit exclusively and customers pay for items directly to the individual shops. 北京购物中心的概念起源于 80 年代末，北京第一个购物中心是王府饭店地下商城，其次是 1990 年开业的国贸商城一期。百货公司和购物中心最主要的区别是购物中心为固定租金，百货公司多以净营业额扣点方式收取租金；百货公司多为中央收款，购物中心为店铺自行收款。 With the completion of several shopping centres in the mid-1990s, the concept of the shopping centre has been gradually accepted by consumers in Beijing as an alternative mode of operation. The annual level of completion in 1998 was relatively higher as both the Henderson Centre and Sun Dong An Plaza were completed within that year. Currently, there are six large-scale shopping centres in Beijing, namely China World Trade Centre, COFCO Plaza, Henderson Centre, Oriental Plaza, Sun Dong An plaza (part) and Full Link Plaza, providing a total gross floor area of 420,000 square metres and a net floor area of 210,000 square metres. 随着 90 年代中期一些购物中心的相继开业，北京消费者开始认识和接受购物中心是另外一种商业模式。 1998年由于恒基中心和新东安的开业，是北京购物中心供应量最大的年份。目前，北京购物中心共有 6家，包括：国贸商城，中粮广场，恒基中心，东方广场，新东安市场和丰联广场，提供约 42 万平方米的建筑面积， 21 万平方米的营业面积。 图 4.3：北京购物中心分布图 资料来源：显盛保柏 国贸商城 中粮 广场 丰联广场 新东安市场 东方广场 恒基中心 4.0 REAL ESTATE RESEARCH 房地产市场研究 XIHUAN PLAZA, BEIJING 西环广场 - 19 - APRIL 2003二零零三年四月 图 4.4：北京购物中心历史供应情况（ 1990-2001） 资料来源：显盛保柏 4.2 MAJOR RETAIL AREAS 主要商业区域 The major shopping districts in Beijing are located in the following four areas : 北京商业面积主要集中在以下地区： o Wangfujing Area 王府井地区 o Xidan Area 西单地区 o Chaoyangmenwai / Jianguomen Area 朝阳门外地区 /建国门地区 o Xuanwumen / Qianmen / Chongwenmen Area 宣武门 -前门 -崇文门地区 (i) Wangfujing Area 王府井地区 Wangfujing is the oldest traditional shopping area in Beijing. The area was previously dedicated to the mass market, selling low to medium class products. In the early 1990s, the Government commenced a series of works including road relaying, installation of modern street lighting, landscaping as well as the relocation of hawker stalls, to improve the image of the area. The improvement works were completed in 2001 and the area has now become a famous pedestrianised shopping street, linking East Changan Avenue in the south to Dengshikou in the north. 王府井地区是北京传统的购物区。该区以前是面向大众消费者，出售中低档商品。在 90 年代初期，北京市政府开始为王府井商业街推行一连串的美化改造工程，包括安装街灯，铺平地面，整顿小商贩，绿化工程等。王府井于 2001 年 9月宣布改造工程完成，并举行开街仪式。现在王府井已经成为一条具有优良购物环境的商业步行街。该区以王府井大街与东长安街交汇处的南端起，北至灯市口。 As a result of the enhanced image of the area, Wangfujing now mainly attracts overseas and domestic visitors as well as Beijing residents with relatively high purchasing power, and the shopping destinations within in the area are focused towards medium to high class products. According to the “Tenth Five-Year Plan for Beijing (2001-2005)”, retail development in Wangfujing dully this period will be restricted to a total of approximately 450,000 square metres in terms of net floor area. 改造后的王府井主要顾客多以国内外游客以及消费能力较高的北京居民为主，商场定位多为中高档。根据“北京第十个五年计划”，4.0 REAL ESTATE RESEARCH 房地产市场研究 XIHUAN PLAZA, BEIJING 西环广场 - 20 - APRIL 2003二零零三年四月 王府井地区商业营业面积将控制在 45 万平方米左右。 Major shopping destinations in the area include : 王府井地区主要的商场有： o Wangfujing Department Store 王府井百货大楼 o Shidu Department Store 世都百货 o Arts and Crafts Services Building 工艺美术大楼 o Sun Dong An Plaza 新东安市场 o Oriental Plaza 东方广场 表 4.1:王府井地区商业 Name of Store 商场名称 Date of Opening 营业日期 Gross Area (m2) 建筑面积 （平方米） Business Area (m2) 营业面积 （平方米） Efficiency Rate 使用率 Wangfujing Department Store 王府井百货大楼 1955 27,500 18,000 65% Shidu Department Store 世都百货商城 1996 20,000 12,000 60% Arts and Crafts Services Building 工艺美术服务大楼 1998 14,200 7,200 51% Sun Dong An Plaza(Department Store) 新东安市场（百货公司） 1998 40,000 20,000 50% Sun Dong An Plaza(Shopping Center) 新东安市场（购物中心） 1998 80,000 40,000 50% Oriental Plaza 东 方广场 2001 100,000 50,000 50% 资料来源：显盛保柏 (ii) Xidan Area 西单地区 Similar to the Wangfujing area, Xidan is also a major traditional shopping area in Beijing. This area is well-known to local people but not tourists. It generally serves local residents and therefore primarily offers low to medium class products suitable for the mass market. The area is characterised by a number of traditional department stores, which are preferable to the mass market when compared to shopping centres, as local residents have a perception that products sold in a department store are cheaper than those available in a shopping centre. 与王府井地区相似，西单也是北京传统的购物区。该商圈以服务本地居民为主，大众化和中档消费成为本区特点，所以传统的百货公司仍受消费者的垂青。 Information from the Xicheng Government states that the existing retail area in Xidan is approximately 236,000 square metres in terms of net floor area. According to the “Tenth Five-Year Plan for Beijing (2001-2005)”, the retail area in Xidan will be restricted to approximately 400,000 square metres in terms of net floor area. This means the future supply of retail accomodation in Xidan during this period will be limited to 160,000 square metres. 根据西城区政府公布的数据，目前西单地区零售面积为 23.6万平方米。而根据“北京第十个五年计划”，西单商业街的营业面积将控制在 40万平方米左右，即在 2001-2005 年的五年间，西单的零售面积供应将不多于 16 万平方米。 Major shopping destination in the area include : 西单地区主要商场有： o Xidan Department Store 西单百货商场 o Xidan Shopping Centre 西单购物中心 o Xidan Scitech 4.0 REAL ESTATE RESEARCH 房地产市场研究 XIHUAN PLAZA, BEIJING 西环广场 - 21 - APRIL 2003二零零三年四月 西单赛特购物中心 o Zhongyou Department Store 中友百货 o LCX 首都时尚时代百货（原首都时代广场） 表 4.2：西单地区商业 Name of Store 商场名称 Date of Opening 营业日期 Gross Area (m2) 建筑面积 （平方米） Business Area (m2) 营业面积 （平方米） Efficiency Rate 使用率 Xidan Department Store 西单商场 1970 65,000 30,000 46% Xidan Shopping Centre 西 单购物中心 1991 37,000 25,000 68% Xidan Scitech 西单赛特商城 1996 20,000 12,000 60% Zhongyou Department Store 中友百货 1999 70,000 40,000 57% LCX 首都时尚时代百货 2002 40,000 20,000 50% 资料来源：显盛保柏 (iii) Chaoyangmenwai / Jianguomen Area 朝阳门外地区 /建国门地区 This shopping area is located in the proposed Central Business District (CBD) in Chaoyang District, which covers Jianguomenwaidajie, Jianguomennaidajie and Chaoyangmenwaidajie. There are a number of comprehensive developments in the area providing offices, hotels, and serviced apartments. Retail space is usually accommodated within the podium level of these comprehensive developments. 这个商业地区位于朝阳区的中央商务区，主要由建国门内大街、建国门外大街及朝阳门外大街组成。区内有多幢大型综合项目，提供写字楼、酒店和住宅面积。商场多是综合项目中的裙房商业。 Shopping centres in this area are mainly targeted towards people from the embassy area, executives and workers from the surrounding office developments, with a medium to high class market positioning taking advantage of the high purchasing power of these groups of consumers. According to the “Tenth Five-Year Plan for Beijing (2001-2005)”, this area will be further enhanced to function as the CBD of Beijing, and the area will be developed as a high class retail area. 本商圈的客流主要以使馆区工作者，商务人员，白领以及驻京外国人士为主，消费以中高档为主。根据“北京第十个五年计划”规划，此商圈将进一步提高其商务中心的功能，发展成为高档的商业购物区。 Major shopping destinations in the area include : 主要商场包括： o China World Trade Centre 国贸商城 o Scitech Shopping Centre 赛特购物中心 o COFCO Plaza 中粮广场 o Henderson Centre 恒基中心 o Full Link Plaza 丰联广场 o Guiyou Department Store 贵友百货 o Blue Island Mansion 蓝岛大厦 4.0 REAL ESTATE RESEARCH 房地产市场研究 XIHUAN PLAZA, BEIJING 西环广场 - 22 - APRIL 2003二零零三年四月 表 4.3：朝阳门外地区 /建国门地区商业 Name of Store 商场名称 Date of Opening 营业日期 Gross Area (m2) 建筑面积 （平方米） Business Area (m2) 营业面积 （平方米） Efficiency Rate 使用率 Guiyou Store 贵友大厦 1990 17,000 9,500 56% China World Trade Centre 国贸商城 1990/1999 60,000 30,000 50% Scitech Shopping Center 赛特购物中心 1992 18,600 13,000 70% Blue Island Mansion 蓝岛大厦 1993 32,000 17,000 53% COFCO Plaza 中粮广场 1996 60,000 36,000 60% Blue Island Mansion West Area 蓝岛大厦西区 1996 21,000 16,000 76% Full Link Plaza 丰联广场 1997 32,000 16,000 50% Henderson Centre 恒基中心 1998 83,000 40,000 48% 资料来源：显盛保柏 (iv) Xuanwumen / Qianmen / Chongwenmen Area 崇文门 -宣武门 -前门地区 Qianmen is another traditional retail area in Beijing, and has many famous old shops such as Tongrentang, Furuixiang, Zhangyiyuan and Neiliansheng. However, the area is now seriously dilapidated and is no longer attractive to local residents. The area is characterized by street-front shops, targeted at low income local residents and tourists, in particular towards those interested in antiques. 前门地区是北京另一个传统的商业区，包括许多百年老店，有同仁堂药店，瑞蚨祥绸布店，张一元茶馆，内联升等。但该区旧城老化现象日益严重，购物环境并不理想，不再吸引北京当地居民。此区商店主要由临街店铺组成，客源以中低阶层的北京市民及中外游客为主。 The Government plans to implement take urban regeneration in the area. Based upon the preliminary plan to relating to this work, Dazhalan Street, Zhubaoshi Street and Langfang will be pedestrianised and linked with the Liulichang Cultural Street area to form a retail area integrated with tourism attractions, shopping and catering. It is anticipated that a significant period will be required before Qianmen reaches a status similar to the Wangfujing area. 根据政府初步规划，将把大栅栏街、珠宝市街、廊坊二条组成步行街，并与琉璃厂文化街连成一体，形成一个集旅游、购物及美食于一体的商业购物区，并以古都风貌为特色，加强民族文化特色的展现。 Currently, no shopping centre / department store exists in Qianmen. However, there are two large-scale shopping stores in the southern area of Beijing, one in Chongwen District and the other in Xuanwumen District, serving the population in the southern part of Beijing. These are : 目前在前门地区没有具规模的购物中心和百货公司。在崇文区和宣武区都有一个大型商场为北京南部居民提供服务： o New World Centre 新世界商场 o SOGO Department Store 崇光百货 4.0 REAL ESTATE RESEARCH 房地产市场研究 XIHUAN PLAZA, BEIJING 西环广场 - 23 - APRIL 2003二零零三年四月 表 4.4： 宣武门 -前门 -崇文门地区 商业 Name of Store 商场名称 Date of Opening 营业日期 Gross Area (m2) 建筑面积 （平方米） Business Area (m2) 营业面积 （平方米） Efficiency Rate 使用率 SOGO Department Store 庄胜崇光百货 1998 130,000 84,000 65% New World Centre I 新世界商场一期 1998 74,000 40,000 54% New World Centre II 新世界商场二期 2000 43,000 21,000 49% 资料来源：显盛保柏 (vi) Xizhimen Area 西直门地区 Xizhimen is not a traditional shopping area and in fact, there is generally a lack of retail accommodation in the area. The nearest shopping destinations are in Xinjiekou, Fuchengmen and around the North Second Ring Road, all of which are department stores and not shopping centres, including the following: 实际上，西直门地区并不是一个传统的商业购物区，总体来说，此区缺乏购物中心。离西直门地区最近的商场是新街口百货商场，甘家口大厦，以及二环路边的阜成门华联。这些所有的商场为百货公司而不是购物中心，包括： o Xinjiekou Department Store 新街口百货商场 o Beijing Huanlian Fuchengmen Department Store 阜成门华联商厦 o Ganjikou Tower 甘家口大厦 o Shuangan Department Store 双安商场 o Beijing Modern Plaza 当代商城 表 4.5： 西直门地区 商业 Name of Store 商场名称 Date of Opening 营业日期 Gross Area (m2) 建筑面积 （平方米） Business Area (m2) 营业面积 （平方米） Efficiency Rate 使用率 Xinjiekou Department Store 新街口百货商场 1958 10,000 6,000 60% Shuangan Department Store 双安商场 1994 38,600 22,000 57% Beijing Modern Plaza 当代商城 1995 60,000 30,000 50% Hualian Fuchengmen Department Store 阜成门华联 1997 35,000 18,000 51% Ganjiakou Tower 甘家口大厦 2000 35,000 21,000 60% 资料来源：显盛保柏 4.3 FUTURE SUPPLY OF RETAIL ACCOMMODATION 未来商业面积的供应 It is anticipated that, in terms of all types of retail accommodation, approximately 2.94 million square metres (gross) of space will be completed between 2002 and 2006, with a significant level of floor space, equating to 1.49 million square metres, to be completed in 2005. 在 2003-2006 年间，预计共有 294 万平方米建筑面积的各类大型商业面积竣工。 2005 年将是北京市各类商业面积新供应量最大的年份，共有 149 万平方米。 The major volume of supply will be in the CBD area and Zhongguancun, and within comprehensive developments including office, residential, 4.0 REAL ESTATE RESEARCH 房地产市场研究 XIHUAN PLAZA, BEIJING 西环广场 - 24 - APRIL 2003二零零三年四月 serviced apartment and hotel use. In addition, sizeable shopping malls or retail streets will also appear in Beijing in the future, such as the Beijing Mall in Beijing Development Area, Zhongguancun International Mall, Liangguangdajie and Dadushi Retail Street and Dazhongsi Mall, all of which will have retail gross floor area of between 150,000 square metres and 300,000 square metres. 新供应量主要集中在中央商务区，越来越多的商业面积集中在含有写字楼、公寓和酒店的综合项目，尤其在中央商务区和中关村地区。北京未来将出现一大型购物设施和购物街，例如在亦庄的北京MALL，中关村国际商场，两广大街的大都会商业街以及大钟寺现代商城等等，面积多在 15-30 万平方米之间。 There is anticipated to be a lack of future supply in the Xizhimen area. The only identified development is Silver City, with an area of approximately 50,000 square metres (gross). There will be completed in 2004, but the detailed planning of the centre is not known at this stage. It is, however, considered that there could potentially be additional supply as the residential area is experiencing urban regeneration and developments with retail provision may be provided in the future. 预计西环广场未来商业供应量比较有限。西环广场附近的银都中心将在 2004 年提供约 5万平方米建筑面积的商业面积，具体功能情况未定。西直门地区未来项目中将含有一定的商业面积 4.0 REAL ESTATE RESEARCH 房地产市场研究 XIHUAN PLAZA, BEIJING 西环广场 - 25 - APRIL 2003二零零三年四月 表 4.6:未来商业面积供应 Chinese Name English Name Location Date of opening Gross Area (m2) 王府井百货大楼二期 Wangfujing Department Store (Phase II) Wangfujing 东城区王府井 2003 100,000 太平洋百货西单店 Pacific Department Store (Xidan) Xidan 西城区西单 2003 60,000 庄胜丽晶店 Gauelia at the Regend Xuanwumen 宣武门 2003 45,000 大都会商业步行街 Da Du Shi Street Liangguangdajie 崇文区两广大街 2003-2005 300,000 中关村西区商业区 Zhongguancun West Zone Zhongguangcun 中关村 2003-2005 300,000 建外 SOHO Jianwai SOHO Jianguomenwai Steet 建国门外大街 2003-2005 80,000 菜市口百货商场 Caishikou Department Store Caishikou 宣武区菜市口 2004 40,000 百强商贸中心 Metroworld Center Chaoyangmen 东城区朝阳门 2004 81,000 回龙观购物中心 Huilongguan Shopping Center Huilongguan回龙观 2004 58,497 LG大厦 LG Building Yonganli永安里 2004 50,000 银都中心 Silver City Xizhimen西直门 2004 50,000 北京 MALL Beijing Mall BDA 北京经济技术开发区 2005 400,000 西环广场 Xihuan Plaza Xizhimen西直门 2005 91,000 绿屋百货改建专案 Lvwu Shopping Center Wangfujing东城区王府井 2005 N/A 中关村国 际商场 Zhongguancun International Store Xinzhuang, Changping 昌平辛庄桥西北角 2005 300,000 中关村文化商厦 Zhongguancun Culture Plaza Zhongguangcun中关村 2005 80,000 金融街四季天地 Four Seasons Financial Street Financial Street 金融街 2005 71,000 马甸地区 Madian Zone Madian 马甸地区 2005 200,000 万柳地区 Wanliu Zone Wanliu万柳地区 2005 70,000 大西洋新城 Atlantic Place City Wangjing望京 2005 30,000 西西工程 4号地 Xixi Project No. 4 Xidan 西城区西单 2006 60,000 银泰中心 Silver Tai Building Dabeiyao 朝阳区大北窑 2006 30,000 帅府大厦 Shuifu Building Shuaifu Hutong帅府胡同 2006 30,000 财富中心 Fortune Plaza Dongsanhuan North Road 东三环北路 2006 35,000 新城国际 Central Park No.6 Chaowai Street 朝阳区朝外大街 6号 2006 30,000 回龙观地区 Huilongguan Area Huilongguan 回龙观 2006-2010 100,000 资料来源：显盛保柏 4.0 REAL ESTATE RESEARCH 房地产市场研究 XIHUAN PLAZA, BEIJING 西环广场 - 26 - APRIL 2003二零零三年四月 4.4 OCCUPANCY RATE 入住率情况 Department stores are usually able to maintain a higher occupancy rate as compared with shopping centers, as department stores have more flexible merchandising and represent a relatively lower risk to retailers, given that rental payments are usually on a turnover basis. The occupancy rate of the department stores in the vicinity of Xizhimen area is considered to be approximately 95%. 由于比较灵活的商品组合，风险最低化的流水倒扣的租金方式，使得百货公司的平均空置率比较低。西直门地区百货公司的平均入住率为 95%。 The majority of the large-scale shopping centres in the urban area can maintain an occupancy rate of 85% - 90%. Henderson Centre has an exceptionally low occupancy rate as the centre is currently being re-positioned and refurbished. 恒基中心目前正在做重新装修定位。城区大型百货公司和购物中心的平均入住率为 85-90%。 An even higher occupancy rate can be achieved within shopping centres in good locations and with good management. For instance, China World Trade Centre and Oriental Plaza are almost fully occupied and there are waiting lists of retailers who wish to secure accommodation within these two shopping centres. 位置和经营比较好的购物中心的入住率比较高，例如国贸商场和东方广场，甚至出现客户排队等待签约进入的现象。 4.5 RENTAL / PRICE ANALYSIS 租金 /售价分析 (i) Department Stores 百货公司 Generally, rental is received in a department store on the basis of turnover rent and the percentage charged for different types of merchandise is different, ranging from 3%-7% for supermarket to 20-25% for fashion. Therefore the level of rental received ma inly depends upon the level of turnover, or in turn the performance of the department store. 百货公司的租金多为流水倒扣的方式，不同行业的扣点方式不同，超市的扣点为 3-7%，时装的扣点为 20-25%。所以百货公司的租金收入主要依靠零售商的营业收入，或者说是百货公司的营运情况。 The average monthly turnover of major department stores in Beijing is RMB 3,353 per square metre. Assuming an average charge rate of 15% of turnover, the average monthly rental income word be USD 61 per square metre per month. For department stores with a better performance, such as Scitech Shopping Center, Wangfujing Depar