麦肯锡-公司增长的思考

McKinsey & Company 1-1 Growth-ZXS005-TO-Sep/97-whopper Thinking about Growth Technieken van Strategische Analyse Prof. Wouter De Ploey McKinsey & Company 1-2 Growth-ZXS005-TO-Sep/97-whopper I. Why grow II. The evolution of growth portfolios III. What great growers do McKinsey & Company 1-3 Growth-ZXS005-TO-Sep/97-whopper Profitable growth drives principal business objectives Organisational vitality Competitive sustainability Shareholder value Job creation Value-creating revenue growth drives principal business objectives. Growth is not an end in itself. McKinsey & Company 1-4 Growth-ZXS005-TO-Sep/97-whopper Growth is pure oxygen. It creates a vital, enthusiastic corporation where people see genuine opportunity. They take bigger chances. They work harder and smarter. In that way growth is more than our single most important financial driver, its an essential part of our corporate culture. Its why so many talented leaders want to work for PepsiCo rather than lots of other fine corporations. Wayne Calloway, former PepsiCo CEO Growth drives organisational vitality McKinsey & Company 1-5 Growth-ZXS005-TO-Sep/97-whopper I. Why grow II. The evolution of growth portfolios III. What great growers do McKinsey & Company 1-6 Growth-ZXS005-TO-Sep/97-whopper Three key concepts Balancing growth across 3 Horizons Building businesses through a staircase of initiatives A company as a portfolio of staircases McKinsey & Company 1-7 Growth-ZXS005-TO-Sep/97-whopper Concurrent management across 3 Horizons Time frame (years) Profit Horizon 3 Create viable options Horizon 2 Build emerging businesses Horizon 1 Extend and defend core businesses McKinsey & Company 1-8 Growth-ZXS005-TO-Sep/97-whopper 3 Horizons of growth Horizon 1 Extend and defend core businesses Horizon 2 Build emerging businesses Horizon 3 Create viable options Types of businesses Core businesses underpinning current profitability New businesses and extensions of existing businesses fuelling revenue growth Options to build future businesses Management imperative Unlock incremental growth, then manage for value as the business declines Exercise options, assemble required capabilities, and drive business-building initiatives Source options (ideas, relationships, assets) for future growth and test viability of business concepts Primary focus Bottom-line performance and profitability Top-line growth and capital efficiency Future potential and robustness across multiple scenarios McKinsey & Company 1-9 Growth-ZXS005-TO-Sep/97-whopper Balanced growth at Coca-Cola Amatil Time frame Australasia 1965 Australia (69) 1988 New Zealand (55) Western Europe 1982 Austria (42) 1995 Switzerland (35) Profit Year of entry (consumption of Coca-Cola Amatil products in litres per capita) Horizon 3 Create viable options Horizon 2 Build emerging businesses Eastern Europe 1991 Hungary (30) 1991 Czech Republic (14) 1992 Slovakia (11) 1994 Slovenia (25) 1995 Poland (8) 1995 Romania (15) 1995 Croatia (14) Southeast Asia 1991 Indonesia (2) 1997 Philippines (15) Former Soviet republics 1994 Belarus (2) 1994 Ukraine (1) China/India Option with Robert Kuok? Option with San Miguel Other (e.g., further franchises, smart cards, new products) Horizon 1 Extend and defend core businesses McKinsey & Company 1-10 Growth-ZXS005-TO-Sep/97-whopper Financial characteristics Horizons 2 and 3: Coca-Cola Amatil example (Dec 96) Forecast cash contribution 1996 1996 A$ Millions 192 71 -12 Forecast cash contribution 2015 1996 A$ Millions 334 727 228 Capex Low High Medium Real growth in pre-capex cash flow 19962015 55% 227% 911% Estimated market value 30% 50% 20% Time frame Profit Horizon 3 Former Soviet republics China/Asia Other (e.g., further franchises, smart cards, new products) Horizon 2 Eastern Europe Indonesia Horizon 1 Australasia Western Europe McKinsey & Company 1-11 Growth-ZXS005-TO-Sep/97-whopper Challenge of simultaneously managing 3 Horizons Profit ROIC Revenue NPV Option value Business maintainers Business builders Champions and visionaries Fully assembled capability platform Capabilities being acquired or developed Capability requirements may be unclear Metrics People Capabilities Horizon 1 Extend and defend core businesses Horizon 2 Build emerging businesses Horizon 3 Create viable options Profit Time frame McKinsey & Company 1-12 Growth-ZXS005-TO-Sep/97-whopper Unsustainable patterns Weak Strong Strong, but under attack Running out of steam Ideas but not building businesses Failing to seed for the future Losing the right to grow Lots of exciting options but nobody building a business Building next generation of businesses, but not securing long-term future Overfocused on core business, restricting future prospects Excessive focus on growth at expense of core business Core business under serious threat with no emerging new businesses Under siege * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * McKinsey & Company 1-13 Growth-ZXS005-TO-Sep/97-whopper Three key concepts Balancing growth across 3 Horizons Building businesses through a staircase of initiatives A company as a portfolio of staircases McKinsey & Company 1-14 Growth-ZXS005-TO-Sep/97-whopper Growth staircase dynamics Each step on staircase Captures an opportunity Builds new capabilities Creates new options for the next step Capability platform Business-specific competences, growth-enabling competences, privileged assets, special relationships New capabilities Required future capabilities Existing capabilities Existing capabilities capabilities New New capabilities Required future capabilities Required future capabilities Required future capabilities Aspiration McKinsey & Company 1-15 Growth-ZXS005-TO-Sep/97-whopper Coca-Cola Amatils European staircase Relationship and credibility with The Coca-Cola Company Capabilities development Strong brands Regional economies of scale and distribution Manufacturing expertise I have a vision that by the year 2000, CCAs output in Europe will go from 400 million unit cases at the moment to 1 billion Muhtar Kent, CCA European Managing Director Limited platform of beverage capabilities 1964-72 1982 1991-93 1987-91 1994-96 Acquires 4 Australian Coca-Cola franchises Acquires Austrian franchises Graz Vienna Acquires further Austrian franchises Hungary Czech Republic Slovakia Acquires franchises in Belarus Ukraine Slovenia Poland (66%) Romania (50%) Croatia Switzerland Acquires franchises in Mdling St Polten Landegg Steyr Gmunden Klangenfurt Dombirn Salzburg McKinsey & Company 1-16 Growth-ZXS005-TO-Sep/97-whopper Seed growth options Test business model Replicate proven business model Manage for profitability Source and secure options for future growth Test commercial viability of business concept Realise growth potential through business-building initiatives Maximise growth potential by unlocking incremental growth, then manage value in decline Generic growth staircase McKinsey & Company 1-17 Growth-ZXS005-TO-Sep/97-whopper Hungary Czech Republic Slovakia Acquires franchises in Seed growth options Test business model Replicate proven business model Manage for profitability Coca-Cola Amatils European staircase 1964-72 1982 1991-93 1987-91 1994-96 Acquires 4 Australian Coca-Cola franchises Acquires Austrian franchises Acquires further Austrian franchises Belarus Ukraine Slovenia Poland Romania Croatia Switzerland Acquires franchises in Mdling St Polten Landegg Steyr Gmunden Klangenfurt Dombirn Salzburg Graz Vienna McKinsey & Company 1-18 Growth-ZXS005-TO-Sep/97-whopper Sources of value creation: Coca-Cola Amatil Superior front-line execution Positional advantage Insight/foresight Seed growth options Replicate proven business model Manage for profitability Test business model Although the current level of soft drink consumption is lowthe local soft drink market is expected to grow dramatically in the 1990s Dean Wills, Chairman 1991 annual report Example: In 1991, CCA started a new staircase in Indonesia, where per capita soft drink consumption was 2% of Australias consumption The advantages of operating in two territories adjoining one another, versus two in isolation, are tangible Dean Wills, Chairman 1994 annual report Example: In Europe, CCAs growth formula is based on securing contiguous franchises and driving out cost via rationalisation The Coca-Cola Company measures the performance of its bottlers against 3 simple criteria (expanding sales of Coca-Cola products, boosting per capita consumption, investing in Coca-Cola brands). Coca-Cola Amatil is a star performer on all three counts. The Australian company is the current darling of the Coke system BRW, 13 September, 1991 Example: CCAs front-line marketing skills are among the best in the world McKinsey & Company 1-19 Growth-ZXS005-TO-Sep/97-whopper Three key concepts Balancing growth across 3 Horizons Building businesses through a staircase of initiatives A company as a portfolio of staircases McKinsey & Company 1-20 Growth-ZXS005-TO-Sep/97-whopper Mapping staircases to Horizons Time frame Profit Horizon 1 Horizon 2 Horizon 3 Create viable options Seed growth options Replicate proven business model Manage for profitability Test business model Build emerging businesses Extend and defend core businesses McKinsey & Company 1-21 Growth-ZXS005-TO-Sep/97-whopper 3 Horizons as a portfolio of staircases Horizon 1 Extend and defend core businesses Horizon 2 Build emerging businesses Horizon 3 Create viable options Time frame Mature staircases Developing staircases Embryonic staircases Profit McKinsey & Company 1-22 Growth-ZXS005-TO-Sep/97-whopper Coca-Cola Amatils portfolio of staircases 4 more franchises in Austria 199091 Horizon 1 Horizon 2 Horizon 3 Coca-Cola Amatil Horizons Coca-Cola Amatil staircases Acquisition and operation of 4 Australian franchises Australian franchises Fiji NZ franchise Remainder of NZ and Australian franchises PNG 196485 198688 198990 1991 2 joint ventures in Indonesia Control of JVs Jakarta and North Sumatra franchises Consoli- dation into 1 national franchise 1991 1992 1993 1995 Vienna and Graz 4 Austrian franchises Switzerland 1982 198789 199596 Czech and Hungary Slovakia Slovenia Poland Croatia Romania 1991 1992 1994 199596 Ukraine Belarus Infra- structure Former Soviet republics Eastern Europe Western Europe Indonesia Australasia Western Europe Australasia Eastern Europe Indonesia Former Soviet republics 1994 1995-96 McKinsey & Company 1-23 Growth-ZXS005-TO-Sep/97-whopper Disneys portfolio evolution Animation Character licensing 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 Music publishing Book publishing Disney stores Direct mail Software development, visual effects Animated feature films Television shows Motion pictures Touchstone films, home videos Disney channel Miramax acquisition ABC TV network Disneyland Walt Disney World EPCOT Disney/ MGM Studios Animal Kingdom, Disney America Hotel development Disney Institute vacations Resorts Cruise lines, planned communities Tokyo Disney- land Euro Disney KCALTV Hockey Baseball Live theatre Hollywood Pictures Hollywood Records Filmed entertainment Theme parks Vacations, resorts & property development Live entertainment Broadcasting Merchandising, music, and publishing McKinsey & Company 1-24 Growth-ZXS005-TO-Sep/97-whopper I. Why grow II. The evolution of growth portfolios III. What great growers do McKinsey & Company 1-25 Growth-ZXS005-TO-Sep/97-whopper Characteristics of successful growth companies Commit to growth Cultivate entre- preneurship Build growth engines McKinsey & Company 1-26 Growth-ZXS005-TO-Sep/97-whopper Commit to growth The right to grow Stretch targets and values Commit to growth Cultivate entre- preneurship Build growth engines McKinsey & Company 1-27 Growth-ZXS005-TO-Sep/97-whopper Earn the right to grow Achieve and sustain operational excellence Divest unprofitable or distracting businesses Build the faith of investors and financiers Commit to growth Cultivate entre- preneurship Build growth engines The right to grow Stretch targets and values McKinsey & Company 1-28 Growth-ZXS005-TO-Sep/97-whopper Divest unprofitable or distracting businesses 90% of the Sara Lee Corporation of 1974 is gone. (22 significant divestments in past 15 years) John Bryan, CEO . . .We divest any part of the business we are not happy with . . .we are very disciplined. We are convinced that the benefits of worldwide leadership are so great that we cant afford to waste time, money, and management talent where that leadership is not achievable. Alfred Zeien, CEO We have divested in the eighties $10 billion worth of marginal businesses and made $19 billion of acquisitions. Jack Welch, CEO We do not hang onto businesses where we cannot be Number 1 or 2. Richard Gibb, President, Signal Division McKinsey & Company 1-29 Growth-ZXS005-TO-Sep/97-whopper Winning confidence of shareholders at Disney Strategy Target audience Example Major shareholder, Sid Bass Eisner and Wells flew to meet Bass after 2 days on job to gain his support Broader investment community Active participation in Disney magic Individual shareholders Concerned investment community One-on-one discussions Roadshow presentations Targeted press conferences Eisner, Wells, & Katzenberg held brokers meetings to gain support for Silver Screen film financing Annual general meetings are a big family event at Anaheim (1984 attended by 8 000) When Disney faced a series of disruptions (Wellss death, Katzenbergs departure, Eisners heart surgery), it held press conferences McKinsey & Company 1-30 Growth-ZXS005-TO-Sep/97-whopper Raise the bar through stretch targets and values Set stretch targets Killer financial targets Inspiring aspiration that evolves over time Balance with strong values Commit to growth Cultivate entre- preneurship Build growth engines The right to grow Stretch targets and values McKinsey & Company 1-31 Growth-ZXS005-TO-Sep/97-whopper Inspiring aspiration You really need to articulate a vision and will it to happen. Our people get intoxicated with a vision. That vision is charged by something that is dream-driven and gives the organisation direction for the future. One key objectiveto be the worlds premier packaging company. Be the worlds premier entertainment company. To better humanity as the worlds leading health care company. I want to build a business that can grow forever. McKinsey & Company 1-32 Growth-ZXS005-TO-Sep/97-whopper Build growth engines Commit to growth Cultivate entre- preneurship Build growth engines Opportunity pipeline Platform of capabilities Expansive mindset McKinsey & Company 1-33 Growth-ZXS005-TO-Sep/97-whopper Embrace an expansive mindset Recognise and utilise 7 degrees of strategic freedom Break constraining mindsets Broaden traditional market definitions Industry boundaries Geographic boundaries Business system boundaries Commit to growth Cultivate entre- preneurship Expansive mindset Opportunity pipeline Build growth engines Fan organisational passion Platform of capabilities McKinsey & Company 1-34 Growth-ZXS005-TO-Sep/97-whopper Moves into new competitive arenas Existing competitive arena vs Expansion into new geographies Existing geography vs Improve-ment of industry structure Existing industry structure vs Innovation in value delivery system Existing value delivery system vs Innovation in products and services Existing products and services vs New customers Existing customers vs Seven degrees of strategic freedom Current business McKinsey & Company 1-35 Growth-ZXS005-TO-Sep/97-whopper Gillettes seven degrees of strategic freedom Drove consolidation of stationery industry with acquisitions of Papermate, Waterman, and Parker Acquired Wilkinson Sword outside US and EC in 1991 Use of dual sales channels with Oral-B and Braun both selling electric dental care system Sale of Waterman pens through Parkers corporate gift channels Successfully migrated consumers to newer, higher margin shaving products Leveraged Gillette brand in adjacent products Toiletries, stationery, small electrical appliances, oral care, and now batteries 70% of sales and profits generated outside US Dominant and profitable positions in most emerging markets Built female customer base with Sensor technology Moves into new competitive arenas Existing competitive arena vs Expansion into new geographies Existing geography vs Improve-ment of industry structure Existing industry structure vs Innovation in value delivery system Existing value delivery system vs Innovation in products and services Existing products and services vs New customers Existing customers vs Current business Massive brand and volume building through advertising and promotion McKinsey & Company 1-36 Growth-ZXS005-TO-Sep/97-whopper Broaden traditional market definitions 5% of the personal use/personal care consumer products market 20% of mens grooming products market 60% of the blade and razor market Blades and razors Blades and razors Shaving cream Deodorant/ antiperspirant Aftershave Mens grooming products Womens shaving and grooming products Shampoo/haircare Oral care McKinsey & Company 1-37 Growth-ZXS005-TO-Sep/97-who