支撑和阻力.doc

Support and Resistance 支撑和阻力 Support and resistance represent key junctures where the forces of supply and demand meet.支撑和阻力的关键时刻在那里的部队的供应和需求满足。 In the financial markets, prices are driven by excessive supply (down) and demand (up).在金融市场，价格是由供给过剩（下）和需求（增长） 。 Supply is synonymous with bearish, bears and selling.供应就是看跌，熊和销售。 Demand is synonymous with bullish, bulls and buying.需求就是看涨，公牛和购买。 These terms are used interchangeably throughout this and other articles.这些字词互换使用本及其他物品。 As demand increases, prices advance and as supply increases, prices decline.由于需求增加，价格提高和供应增加，价格下跌。 When supply and demand are equal, prices move sideways as bulls and bears slug it out for control.当供给和需求都是平等的，横向的价格举动牛派和熊派决一雌雄了控制。 What Is Support? 什么是支持？ Support is the price level at which demand is thought to be strong enough to prevent the price from declining further.支持的价格水平上的需求被认为是足够强大，以防止价格进一步下降。 The logic dictates that as the price declines towards support and gets cheaper, buyers become more inclined to buy and sellers become less inclined to sell.逻辑告诉我们，由于价格下跌，以支持和变得便宜，购买者更加倾向于购买和销售变得不那么倾向于出售。 By the time the price reaches the support level, it is believed that demand will overcome supply and prevent the price from falling below support.当价格达到一级的支持，相信需求将克服供应，防止价格低于支持。 Support does not always hold and a break below support signals that the bears have won out over the bulls.支持并不总是持有和跌破支持信号，熊已经战胜了公牛队。 A decline below support indicates a new willingness to sell and/or a lack of incentive to buy.下方支持的下降表明了新的愿意出售和/或缺乏激励购买。 Support breaks and new lows signal that sellers have reduced their expectations and are willing sell at even lower prices.支持和新的低点休息的信号，即销售商已经减少了他们的期望，并愿意出售甚至更低的价格。 In addition, buyers could not be coerced into buying until prices declined below support or below the previous low.此外，买家不能强迫购买到价格低于支持或低于前低。 Once support is broken, another support level will have to be established at a lower level.一旦支持破了，另一个支持水平将必须建立在一个较低的水平。 Where Is Support Established? 如果是支持成立？ Support levels are usually below the current price, but it is not uncommon for a security to trade at or near support.支持水平通常低于目前的价格，但它并不鲜见安全贸易达到或接近支持。 Technical analysis is not an exact science and it is sometimes difficult to set exact support levels.技术分析不是一门精确的科学，它有时是难以确定确切的支持水平。 In addition, price movements can be volatile and dip below support briefly.此外，价格变动可挥发性和短暂跌破支持。 Sometimes it does not seem logical to consider a support level broken if the price closes 1/8 below the established support level.有时，似乎没有合理的考虑支持水平，如果价格打破关闭一月八日低于既定的支持水平。 For this reason, some traders and investors establish support zones.出于这个原因，一些交易商和投资者建立支持区。 What Is Resistance? 什么是电阻？ Resistance is the price level at which selling is thought to be strong enough to prevent the price from rising further.阻力的价格水平上销售被认为是足够强大，以防止价格进一步上涨。 The logic dictates that as the price advances towards resistance, sellers become more inclined to sell and buyers become less inclined to buy.逻辑告诉我们，作为价格进展阻力，卖方变得更加倾向于出售和购买者越来越倾向于购买。 By the time the price reaches the resistance level, it is believed that supply will overcome demand and prevent the price from rising above resistance.的时候，价格达到了阻力，但相信一定能够克服供应需求，防止价格上升阻力位之上。 Resistance does not always hold and a break above resistance signals that the bulls have won out over the bears.抵抗并不总是持有和突破阻力信号，公牛队已经战胜了北极熊。 A break above resistance shows a new willingness to buy and/or a lack of incentive to sell.突破阻力显示出新的意愿购买和/或缺乏激励出售。 Resistance breaks and new highs indicate buyers have increased their expectations and are willing to buy at even higher prices.抵抗休息和新高表明买家增加了他们的期望，并愿意购买甚至更高的价格。 In addition, sellers could not be coerced into selling until prices rose above resistance or above the previous high.此外，卖方不能强迫销售，直至价格上涨阻力或高于前高点。 Once resistance is broken, another resistance level will have to be established at a higher level.一旦阻力冲破，另一个阻力位将必须建立在一个更高的水平。 Where Is Resistance Established? 凡阻力确立？ Resistance levels are usually above the current price, but it is not uncommon for a security to trade at or near resistance.阻力水平通常高于目前的价格，但它并不鲜见安全贸易或附近阻力。 In addition, price movements can be volatile and rise above resistance briefly.此外，价格变动可挥发性和超越阻力简要介绍。 Sometimes it does not seem logical to consider a resistance level broken if the price closes 1/8 above the established resistance level.有时，似乎没有合理的考虑阻力位，如果价格打破关闭1 / 8以上的既定阻力水平。 For this reason, some traders and investors establish resistance zones.出于这个原因，一些交易商和投资者建立阻力区。 Methods to Establish Support and Resistance? 方法来确定支撑和阻力？ Support and resistance are like mirror images and have many common characteristics.支撑和阻力就像镜像并有许多共同的特点。 Highs and Lows 波动 Support can be established with the previous reaction lows.支持才能建立与前反应低点。 Resistance can be established by using the previous reaction highs.电阻可以建立使用前反应历史新高。 The above chart for Halliburton (HAL)如上图所示的哈里伯顿公司（ HAL ）的 shows a large trading range between Dec-99 and Mar-00.显示贸易大国之间， 12月99和3月， 00 。 Support was established with the October low around 33.支持建立了10月的低点33 。 In December, the stock returned to support in the mid-thirties and formed a low around 34.去年12月，股票返回的支持，中三，形成了低约34个。 Finally, in February the stock again returned to the support scene and formed a low around 33 1/2.最后，在2月股市再次返回现场的支持，形成了低约33 1 / 2 。 After each bounce off support, the stock traded all the way up to resistance.在每次反弹的支持下，股价一路上涨，以抵抗。 Resistance was first established by the September support break at 42.5.阻力首先9月设立的支持打破在42.5 。 After a support level is broken, it can turn into a resistance level.经过支持水平被打破，它可以变成阻力位。 From the October lows, the stock advanced to the new support-turned-resistance level around 42.5.从10月的低点，股市进入了新的支持变为阻力位约42.5 。 When the stock failed to advance past 42.5, the resistance level was confirmed.当股价未能提前过去42.5 ，阻力水平得到了确认。 The stock subsequently traded up to 42.5 two more times after that and failed to surpass resistance both times.该股随后上涨到42.5两次失败后，将超过阻力都倍。 Support Equals Resistance 支持等于阻力 Another principle of technical analysis stipulates that support can turn into resistance and visa versa.另一种技术分析原则规定，支持可以变成阻力和签证反之亦然。 Once the price breaks below a support level, the broken support level can turn into resistance.一旦价格低于休息支持一级，打破支撑位变为阻力。 The break of support signals that the forces of supply have overcome the forces of demand.休息的信号，支持部队的供给，克服了力量的需求。 Therefore, if the price returns to this level, there is likely to be an increase in supply, and hence resistance.因此，如果价格回报这个层面上，很可能是增加供应，从而抵抗。 The other turn of the coin is resistance turning into support.其他之交的硬币是阻力变为支持。 As the price advances above resistance, it signals changes in supply and demand.由于上述价格的进步性，它的信号变化，供给和需求。 The breakout above resistance proves that the forces of demand have overwhelmed the forces of supply.突破阻力位之上证明该部队的需求已经压倒了部队供应。 If the price returns to this level, there is likely to be an increase in demand and support will be found.如果价格回报这个层面上，很可能会增加的需求和支持会被发现。 In this example of the NASDAQ 100 Index ($NDX)在这个例子中的纳斯达克100指数（ $ NDX信息） , the stock broke resistance at 935 in May-97 and traded just above this resistance level for over a month. ，该股突破阻力位在935 5 - 97和交易略高于这个阻力位了一个多月。 The ability to remain above resistance established 935 as a new support level.能力仍然阻力设立935作为一种新的支持水平。 The stock subsequently rose to 1150, but then fell back to test support at 935.该股后来上升到1150年，但随后回落至测试支撑935 。 After the second test of support at 935, this level is well established.在第二次测试的支持935 ，这个水平是公认的。 From the PeopleSoft (PSFT)从仁科（ PSFT ）的 example, we can see that support can turn into resistance and then back into support.例如，我们可以看到，支持可以变成阻力，然后回到支持。 PeopleSoft found support at 18 from Oct-98 to Jan-99 (green oval), but broke below support in Mar-99 as the bears overpowered the bulls. PeopleSoft的发现支持在18年10月98至1月99 （绿色的椭圆形） ，但跌破支持在3月99的熊制服公牛。 When the stock rebounded (red oval), there was still overhead supply at 18 and resistance was met from Jun-99 to Oct-99.当股价回升（红色椭圆形） ，还有18架空供应和抵抗是从6月99至10月， 99 。 Where does this overhead supply come from?如果这个间接供应从何而来？ Demand was obviously increasing around 18 from Oct-98 to Mar-99 (green oval).需求明显增加约18到10月98至3月， 99 （绿色的椭圆形） 。 Therefore, there were a lot of buyers in the stock around 18.因此，有很多买家在股市约18 。 When the price declined past 18 and to around 14, many of these buyers were probably still holding the stock.当价格下降到过去18和14左右，其中许多买主可能仍持有的股票。 This left a supply overhang (commonly known as resistance) around 18.这给他留下了供应过剩（通常称为阻力）约18 。 When the stock rebounded to 18, many of the green-oval-buyers (who bought around 18) probably took the opportunity to sell.当股价反弹到18岁，许多绿色椭圆买家（谁买了约18 ）可能借此机会出售。 When this supply was exhausted, the demand was able to overpower supply and advance above resistance at 18.当这个供应用尽，需求能够压倒供应和推进上述阻力位在18 。 Trading Range 交易范围 Trading ranges can play an important role in determining support and resistance as turning points or as continuation patterns.交易区可以发挥重要的作用，确定支撑和阻力的转折点或继续模式。 A trading range is a period of time when prices move within a relatively tight range.交易范围是在一段时间内移动时，价格相对窄幅波动。 This signals that the forces of supply and demand are evenly balanced.这表明，该部队的供给和需求的均衡。 When the price breaks out of the trading range, above or below, it signals that a winner has emerged.当价格爆发的交易范围，高于或低于，它标志着一个冠军已经出现。 A break above is a victory for the bulls (demand) and a break below is a victory for the bears (supply).突破是一个胜利的公牛队（需求） ，并跌破是一个胜利，熊（供应） 。 After an extended advance from 27 to 64, WorldCom (WCOM)经过延长提前27至64岁， 世通公司（ WCOM ） entered into a trading range between 55 and 63 for about 5 months.进入了一个交易范围55至63岁的约5个月。 There was a false breakout in mid-June when the stock briefly poked its head above 62 (red oval).有一种虚假的突破6月中旬，当股价短暂戳62头以上（红色椭圆形） 。 This did not last long and a gap down a few days later nullified the breakout (black arrow).这并没有持续多长时间和差距下跌几天后取消了突破（黑箭） 。 The stock then proceeded to break support at 55 in Aug-99 and trade as low as 50.股票接着打破支持在8月55 ， 99和贸易低至50 。 Here is another example of support turned resistance as the stock bounced off 55 two more times before heading lower.这里是另一个例子支持变成阻力的股票反弹55两次，然后在较低。 While this does not always happen, a return to the new resistance level offers a second chance for longs to get out and shorts to enter the fray.虽然这并不总是发生，回到新的抗性水平提供了第二次机会的渴望摆脱和短裤进入竞争。 In Nov/Dec-99, Lucent Technologies (LU)在Nov/Dec-99 ， 朗讯科技（ LU ） formed a trading range that resembled a head and shoulders pattern (red oval).形成了类似交易范围头部和肩膀的模式（红色椭圆形） 。 When the stock broke support at 60, there was little or no time to exit.当股价突破支持，在60 ，但很少或根本没有时间来退出。 Even though the there is a long black candlestick indicating an open at 59, the stock fell so fast that it was impossible to exit above 44.尽管还有很长的黑色烛台表明一个开放的为59 ，在股价下跌如此之快，这是不可能退出上述44 。 In hindsight, the support line could have been drawn as an upward sloping neckline (blue line), and the support break would have come at 61.事后，支持线可能已经制定作为向上斜颈线（蓝线） ，并支持将有突破，达到61 。 This is only 1 point higher and a trader would have had to take action immediately to avoid a sharp fall.这仅仅是1点和交易商将不得不立即采取行动，以避免有较大幅度的下降。 However, the lows match up rather nicely on the neckline, and it is something to consider when drawing support lines.然而，相匹配的低点，而漂亮的领口，它是考虑在制定支持线。 After Lucent declined, a trading range was established between 40.5 and 47.5 for almost two months (green oval).在朗讯下降，交易范围之间建立40.5和47.5的近两个月（绿色的椭圆形） 。 The resistance level of the trading range was well marked by three reaction peaks at 47.5.抗性水平的波动区间很明显的三个反应的峰值47.5 。 The support level was not as clearly marked, but appeared to be between 40 and 41.支持水平没有明确标示，但似乎是40和41之间。 Some buying interest began to become evident around 44 in mid- to late-February.一些买盘的兴趣开始显现在44月中下旬至2月。 Notice the array of candlesticks with long lower shadows, or hammers, as they are known.通知的一系列蜡台长期低阴影，或锤，因为它们是众所周知的。 The stock then proceeded to form two up gaps on 24-Feb and 25-Feb, and finally closed above resistance at 48.股票接着形成两个上涨差距24 2月和25月，最后收于阻力位在48 。 This was a clear indication of demand winning out over supply.这清楚地显示出比赛的需求超过供应。 There were still two more opportunities (days) to get in on the action.还有更多的机会，两次（天） ，没能参加的行动。 On the third day after the breakout, the stock gapped up and moved above 56.第三天爆发后，股市上涨和感动亿元以上56 。 Support and Resistance Zones 支撑和阻力区 Because technical analysis is not an exact science, it is useful to create support and resistance zones.因为技术分析不是一门精确的科学，它是有用的创造支撑和阻力区。 This is contrary to the strategy mapped out for Lucent Technologies (LU), but it is sometimes the case.这是违背了战略规划的朗讯科技（ LU ） ，但它有时是如此。 Each security has its own characteristics, and analysis should reflect the intricacies of the security.每个安全都有自己的特点，分析应该反映错综复杂的安全。 Sometimes, exact support and resistance levels are best, and, sometimes, zones work better.有时，完全支持和阻力水平是最好的，有时甚至是无核武器区的工作做得更好。 Generally, the tighter the range, the more exact the level.一般来说，严格的范围，更精确的水平。 If the trading range spans less than 2 months and the price range is relatively tight, then more exact support and resistance levels are best suited.如果交易范围涵盖了不到2个月，价格范围是相对紧张，那么更准确的支持和阻力水平最适合。 If a trading range spans many months and the price range is relatively large, then it is best to use support and resistance zones.如果交易范围涵盖了许多个月的价格范围是比较大的，那么它就是最好地利用支撑和阻力区。 These are only meant as general guidelines, and each trading range should be judged on its own merits.这只是意味着作为一般准则，每个交易范围应判断其本身的是非曲直。 Returning to the analysis of Halliburton (HAL)回归分析哈里伯顿（ HAL ）的 , we can see that the November high of the trading range (33 to 44) extended more than 20% past the low, making the range quite large relative to the price. ，我们可以看到， 11月高的交易范围（ 33至44岁）延长超过20 ，过去的低，使相当大的范围相对价格。 Because the September support break forms our first resistance level, we are ready to set up a resistance zone after the November high is formed, probably around early December.由于9月打破形式支持我们的第一阻力位，我们准备成立一个阻力区后， 11月形成的高，可能在12月初。 At this point though, we are still unsure if a large trading range will develop.在这一点上虽然，我们仍然不确定，如果一个大型交易范围将继续发展下去。 The subsequent low in December, which was just higher than the October low, offer