argument3 gre作文.doc

Merely based on the unsound reasoning, the author hastily makes the fallacious conclusion that if skateboard is prohibited there, the business in Central Plaza will return to its previously high levels. The author makes such egregious flaws such as cause and effect, false analogy, insufficient investigation and analysis.It is stated in the argument that over the past two years, the number of shoppers in central plaza has been steadily decreasing while the popularity of skateboarding has increased dramatically. Thus the author agrees that the decrease is related to the skateboarding and a cause and effect flaw is made. The popularity of skateboarding may not be necessarily relevant to the lapse of business. For example, the popularity of it may even attract more people rather than dispel them. The stimulating activity might draw more young peoples attention and thus benefit the Central plaza. In addition, there are also many other factors that can also cause the decrease in business. For example, the too much hospitality and coldness can threaten and make client less interested in the goods. Without sufficient investigation and evidence, we cannot hastily draw the conclusion. In order to make the result of analysis more convincing, the author should look into more surveys and investigate into the real reason of the business decrease. Furthermore, the increasing litter and vandalism throughout plaza may not be related to the skateboarding as well. And author makes another cause and effect flaw. The deteriorating of the clients morality might as well account for the boosting litter and facility damage. We will not know the real reason of it until more facts and evidence is given by author.In addition, it is said in the issue that if skateboard is prohibited there, the business in Central Plaza will return to its previously high levels. And the author makes the flaw in false analogy. The fluctuation in sale in the past cannot be analogous to the sale in the future and the conditions never stop changing. For example, the favor and ways of shopping of people may change during these years. More people may be more interested in cyber-shopping rather than going to the Central Plaza. Even though the skateboarding is prohibited, the sale may not be improved because of this. The author should make a more eclectic survey about the change during the years, such as the ways of shopping. Perhaps amount of work is needed and it is very difficult to know the change and trend. However, without adequate and convincing evidence, we should not arbitrarily draw the conclusion.To sum up, the conclusion the author reach in the argument lacks credibility in the sense that the evidence cited in the argument is not strong enough for what it claims. To make the argument more convincing, the arguer should provide more concrete evidence of the facts, investigations of the effect of popularit