商务统计 第三个作业.doc

Assessment task 3Question 1Comment: From the chart of average maximum temperature we can see that the total trend is rise between 11.63 and 13.87. In 1985 and 1986 the temperature is at the lowest point at 11.63, and in 2003 it got the highest point at 13.87. At first the range of change is big, and then the change is small. The range is beside the trend line, so it can forecast that the average maximum temperature will grow in the future.Question 2(c)From the chart of relations of finished output and production cost, we can see that y=81.615x-286.51. So if the finished output in November is 39 thousand tons, the production cost would be 2896.48.(d)Comment: From the chart, we can find that these data rise and fall move around the regression line. It means that the next data is also around the regression line rise and fall, the deviation is not very large. So the above estimate for part (c) is valiantly.Question 3(c) The difference in the trend is 117.875-115.625=2.25Average this figure over the whole time period, we have 12 time periods, so 11jumps. This means that the average jump is 2.25/11=0.20As a result, we can calculate that the quarter 4 of year 5 is 117.88+0.20*4=118.68.(d) Comment: Through the predication, Company can master the organizations situation, its can predict the number of dispense prescription in the next year. The kind of predication is very equitable for company; it can help