英语翻译 消费时代来临.doc

消费时代来临2008.02.14Economics focus From Mao to the mall Economics focusFrom Mao to the mall消费时代来临Feb 14th 2008From The Economist print editionAmid all the global gloom, the good news is that China is turning into a nation of spenders, as well as sellers。虽然全球经济陷入低潮，但好兆头是中国正从出口大国步入消费大国。THE past year has seen a lively debate among economists about Chinas rapid economic growth. Some, such as Brad Setser from the Council on Foreign Relations, believe that exports have been the main generator; others, like UBSs Jonathan Anderson and The Economist, think that domestic demandspending on roads and railways, cars and clothes, and the likehas been the driving force. Just now, a lot turns on this argument: both how badly Chinas economy could be hurt by an American recession and also the extent to which Chinese spending could help to prop up the rest of the world economy. Some new figures suggest Chinese demand is rising strongly enough to help offset the increasing weakness in Chinas export markets. That could be good news for the world at large.去年经济学家曾就中国经济的快速增长进行了一场激烈的讨论。以美国外交关系委员会国际事务研究员布拉德赛斯特为首的经济学家认为出口是拉动增长的主要因素；而瑞银亚洲区首席经济学家乔纳森安德森等一些经济学家及本刊认为为满足国内需求修建公路、铁路，生产汽车、服装等产品一直是促进发展的动力所在。现在争论的新焦点是：美国经济衰退对中国经济的打击会有多大？中国消费市场能支撑起世界经济走多远？一些新的数据显示中国内需增长强劲，足以抵消出口市场不断萎靡的影响。这对全球市场来说会是个好兆头。It is certainly true that Chinas current-account surplus rose to a record 10% of its GDP last year, which means that it produced a lot more than it consumed and so relied on foreigners to buy the excess. But it is the change in a countrys trade surplus, not its absolute size, which matters for GDP growth. The increase in net exports (exports minus imports) has never been the main source of Chinas growth. It contributed two to three percentage points to annual GDP growth between 2005 and 2007, whereas domestic demand (consumption and investment) added eight to nine percentage points. But the latest figures show that exports have become even less important as a driver of growth. The World Banks latest China Quarterly Update suggests that net exports contributed only 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in the year to the fourth quarter of 2007 (see left-hand chart). Overall GDP growth slowed only modestly (to 11.2%) because of faster growth in domestic demand, which contributed an impressive 10.8 percentage points.中国的经常项目贸易盈余去年又创历史新高，占国内生产总值的10%，这就意味着中国的生产量大大超过消费量，需要将过剩的生产产品出口。影响一个国家GDP增长的不是看有多大的贸易盈余，而是要看该国的贸易盈余的变化。中国的净出口（即出口量减去进口量）增长长期以来并不没有成为带动经济增长的主要因素。2005至2007年GDP年增长中仅有2%-3%来自于净出口，而国内需求（消费与投资）占8%-9%。最近的数据更是表明出口拉动增长的作用微乎其微。世界银行最新公布的中国季度报告显示2007年第四季度中国净出口仅为全年GDP创造0.4%的增长。在快速上扬的国内需求带动下，2007年全年增长速度依然强劲，达到11.2%，其中10.8%的可观增长来自于国内需求拉动。The significance of all this is that although Chinas headline GDP growth is widely tipped to slow to 9-10% in 2008, if a bigger chunk of this growth comes from domestic consumption and investment, then in absolute dollar terms China could well contribute more to global demand this year than in 2007.这些都表明尽管各种迹象暗示中国广义国民生产总值GDP增长速度会在08年稍有回落，达到9-19%，但这一增长将更多依赖于国内消费与投资，以美元计算中国08年对国际市场的贡献将会比07年更大。Dragonomics, a Beijing-based economics-research firm, forecasts that the contribution of net exports to GDP growth will actually fall to zero during 2008, but this will be partly offset by strong growth in investment and consumption. After growing by an average of $80 billion during each of the past three years, Chinas trade surplus is likely to remain more or less flat this year. Export growth fell from 28% in the year to the first quarter of 2007 to 22% by the fourth quarter because of weaker American demand and the impact of a stronger yuan.北京一家经济研究公司龙洲经讯预测2008年净出口对GDP增长的贡献将会降至零，取而代之的是投资和消费带来的强劲增长。在即平均增长连续三年达到800亿美元之后，今年贸易顺差不会有太大增长。由于美国消费需求缩小及人民币升值影响，中国出口增长已由07年第一季度的28%下降到第四季度的22%。Meanwhile import growth surged from 18% to 26% on the back of strong industrial and consumer demand. In other words, Chinese imports are now growing faster than exports. Chinas trade surplus widened by only 12% (in dollar terms) over the year to the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of almost 90% in the first half of last year. This was partly due to higher oil prices that increased the value of imports, but even in inflation-adjusted volume terms the surplus stopped growing in the latter part of last year.同时以强劲的工业及消费需求为支撑，进口增长由18%上升到26%。换句话说，中国的进口市场比出口市场享有更快的发展速度。中国到07年第四季度总计全年贸易顺差在绝对美元币值条件下只增长了12%，而按07上半年计算，贸易顺差增长近九成之高。这一方面是由于油价上涨使得进口货币价格，即便除去通胀因素条件下，后半年盈余也没什么增长。Time to open their wallets是该让人们花钱的时候了Not only did more of Chinas growth come from domestic demand late last year, but there were also signs of a “rebalancing” of the economy from investment towards consumption. Using figures from Chinas National Bureau of Statistics, Mark Williams, an economist at Capital Economics, a London-based research firm, calculates that in 2007 consumption accounted for a bigger slice of GDP growth than investment for the first time in seven years. Government restraints on bank lending caused investment growth to slow slightly, whereas consumer spending picked up. The often-quoted monthly figures on fixed-asset investment still show annual growth of over 20%, but these figures are misleading. Measured on the same national-accounts basis as GDP, to exclude property and land sales, real investment rose by a more modest 11% in the year to the fourth quarter, less than the growth in real consumption.去年下半年国内需求带动GDP大部分的增长，不仅仅如此，有迹象表明中国政府正在努力促使经济增长由投资拉动转向消费拉动。伦敦研究机构Capital Economics 经济学家Mark Williams 根据中国国家统计局给出的数据预计2007年由消费带动的GDP增长份额将在7年来首次超过投资带动的份额。政府采取限制银行借贷的政策，使投资增长速度略微放慢，而消费支出却一路上扬。经常引用的固定资产投资每月数据显示投资年度增长仍超过20%，但这一统计会导致误解。若基于GDP核算帐户进行计量, 除去地产与土地买卖，实际投资截至至第四季度仅上涨，比实际消费增长要慢。Chinas consumer-spending data are notoriously murky. The annual rate of growth in retail sales has surged from 13% in early 2006 to 20% in December of last year (see right-hand chart). Some sceptics argue that this increase is mainly due to a rise in inflation. However, the consumer-price index is not the appropriate deflator because it gives a much higher weight to food (the main source of the recent surge in inflation) than the share of food in total retail sales. Frank Gong, an economist at JPMorgan, argues that using a more appropriate deflator, real spending has clearly accelerated, especially on household goods. One important stimulus is that last year real urban disposable income per head rose faster than GDP for the first time in five years. This should help to keep consumption growing rapidly in 2008. 中国的居民消费支出数据统计有出入，这人所共知。零售行业年增长由2006年年初13%上涨到去年12月的20%（见右图）。有人怀疑这一增长主要是因为通货膨胀率的提高。但是，用消费物价指数作为平减指数并不合适，因为该指数中食品所占权重高于食品消费在商品零售总额中的比例，而食品是近期通胀猛增的主要因素。摩根大通银行(JPMorgan Chase)经济学家龚福朗(Frank Gong)认为用实际开销来衡量更为恰当，并且实际开销在明显加大，特别是日用品开销的加大。去年城市居民人均可支配收入增长速度五年来首次高于GDP的增长，这应是一个重要的刺激因素。这将有助于08年消费继续保持快速增长。A growth rate in China driven more by consumption than by exports and investment is exactly what the American government has been demanding for several years. Indeed, it might be hoped that if Chinas trade surplus stops expanding and consumer demand plays a bigger role in growth, international trade tensions should subside. The snag is that even if net exports were no longer contributing to Chinas growth, its trade surpluses with America and Europe would continue to loom embarrassingly large. And, says Mr Williams, as Chinese exporters move into higher-value products, the