布兰查德blancard宏观经济学课后习题答案(英文版).pdf

Answers to End of Chapter Questions and Problems Chapter 1 1 a True b True c False d True e False f False 2 a 1960 98 1997 99 US 3 1 3 8 EU 3 1 2 5 Japan 5 8 1 0 While the US growth rate higher than its long run average over the period the growth rate has slowed relative to long run averages in both the EU and Japan over the last few years b Sometimes the economy is growing quickly other times it is growing slowly or even contracting The last few years of rapid growth in the US do not imply that the long run average rate of growth has increased back to its pre 1974 level 3 a The data in the web page are Real Gross Domestic Product Real Final Sales of Domestic Product and Real Gross National Product Quarterly 1959 96 Percent change from preceding quarter Gross Final sales Gross domestic of domestic national product product product 1959 I 8 6 9 2 8 6 II 11 2 7 3 11 1 III 0 3 5 3 0 2 IV 1 7 1 3 1 9 1996 I 1 8 2 6 1 8 II 6 0 5 2 5 7 III 1 0 0 2 0 6 IV 4 3 4 5 4 9 suggesting that recessions typically last two three quarters and that the most severe recessions in that period were the recessions of 1974 75 and 1981 82 b Percentage Changes in Output Growth Inflation 1968 4 7 4 4 I 7 5 4 7 II 7 1 4 1 III 3 0 3 8 IV 1 8 5 5 1969 3 0 4 7 I 6 2 3 8 II 1 0 5 0 III 2 3 5 8 IV 2 0 5 1 1970 0 1 5 3 I 0 7 6 0 II 0 6 5 7 III 3 7 3 4 IV 3 9 5 4 1971 3 3 5 2 I 11 3 6 4 II 2 3 5 5 III 2 6 4 4 IV 1 1 3 3 If history simply repeats itself the United States might have a short recession lasting perhaps one year accompanied by an acceleration in the rate of inflation by about one percentage point 4 a Banking services business services b Not only has the relative demand for skilled workers increased but the industries where this effect is the strongest are making up a greater fraction of the economy 5 1 Low unemployment might lead to an increase in inflation 2 Although measurement error certainly contributes to the measured slowdown in growth there are other issues to consider as well including the productivity of new research and accumulation of new capital 3 Although labor market rigidities may be important it is also important to consider that these rigidities may not be excessive and that high unemployment may arise from flawed macroeconomic policies 4 Although there were serious problems with regard to the management of Asian financial systems it is important to consider the possibility that the flight of foreign capital from these countries worsened the situation by causing a severe stock market crash and exchange rate depreciation 5 Although the Euro will remove obstacles to free trade between European countries each country will be forced to give up its own monetary policy 6 a From Chapter 1 US output 1997 8b China output 1996 84b Note that China s output in 1997 is 84 1 09 b Equating output for some time t in the future 8 1 03 t 84 1 09 1 09 t 8 84 1 09 1 09 1 03 t 8 737 1 058 t t ln 8 737 ln 1 058 38yrs b From Chapter 1 US output worker in 1997 29 800 China output per worker in 1996 700 29 8 1 03 t 7 1 09 1 09 t t 65 years Chapter 2 1 a False b Uncertain real or nominal GDP c True d True e False The level of the CPI means nothing Its rate of change tells us about inflation f Uncertain Which index is better depends on what we are trying to measure inflation faced by consumers or by the economy as a whole 2 a 100 Personal Consumption Expenditures b no change intermediate good c 200 million Gross Private Domestic Fixed Investment d 200 million Net Exports e no change the jet was already counted when it was produced i e presumably when Delta or some other airline bought it new as an investment 3 a Measured GDP increases by 10 12 22 b True GDP should increase by much less than 22 because by working for an extra hour you are no longer producing the work of cooking within the house Since cooking within the house is a final service it should count as part of GDP Unfortunately it is hard to measure the value of work within the home which is why measured GDP does not include it 4 a 1 000 000 the value of the silver necklaces b 1st Stage 300 000 2nd Stage 1 000 00 300 000 700 000 GDP 300 000 700 000 1 000 000 c Wages 200 000 250 000 450 000 Profits 300 000 200 000 1 000 000 250 000 300 000 100 000 450 000 550 000 GDP 450 000 550 000 1 000 000 5 a 1998 GDP 10 2 000 4 1 000 1000 1 25 000 1999 GDP 12 3 000 6 500 1000 1 40 000 Nominal GDP has increased by 60 b 1998 real 1998 GDP 25 000 1999 real 1998 GDP 12 2 000 6 1 000 1000 1 31 000 Real 1998 GDP has increased by 24 c 1998 real 1999 GDP 10 3 000 4 500 1 000 1 33 000 1999 real 1999 GDP 40 000 Real 1999 GDP has increased by 21 2 d True 6 a 1998 base year Deflator 1998 1 Deflator 1999 40 000 31 000 1 29 Inflation 29 b 1999 base year Deflator 1998 25 000 33 000 0 76 Deflator 1999 1 Inflation 1 0 76 0 76 32 32 c Yes 7 a 1998 real GDP 10 2 500 4 750 1000 1 29 000 1999 real GDP 12 2 500 6 750 1000 1 35 500 b 35 500 29 000 29 000 224 22 4 c Deflator in 1998 25 000 29 000 86 Deflator in 1999 40 000 35 500 1 13 Inflation 1 13 86 86 314 31 4 8 a The quality of a routine checkup improves over time Checkups now may include EKGs for example Medical services are particularly affected by this problem due to constant improvements in medical technology b You need to know how the market values pregnancy checkups with and without ultra sounds in that year c This information is not available since all doctors adopted the new technology simultaneously Still you can tell that the quality adjusted increase will be lower than 20 9 a approximately 2 5 b 1992 real GDP growth 2 7 unemployment rate Jan 92 7 3 unemployment rate Jan 93 7 3 Supports Okun s law because the unemployment rate does not change when the growth rate of real GDP is near 2 5 c 2 percentage points change in the unemployment rate 5 percent GDP growth d The growth rate of GDP must increase by 2 5 percentage points Chapter 3 1 a True b False Government spending was 18 if GDP without transfers c False The propensity to consume must be less than one for our model to be well defined d True e False f False The increase in output is one times the multiplier 2 a Y 160 0 6 Y 100 150 150 0 4Y 460 60 Y 1000 b Y D Y T 1000 100 900 c C 160 0 6 900 700 3 a No The goods market is not in equilibrium From part 2a Demand 1000 C I G 700 150 150 b Yes The goods market is in equilibrium c No Private saving Y C T 200 Public saving T G 50 National saving or in short saving equals private plus public saving or 150 National saving equals investment 4 a Roughly consistent C Y 700 1000 70 I Y G Y 150 1000 15 b Approximately 2 c Y needs to fall by 2 or from 1000 to 980 The parameter c 0 needs to fall by 20 multiplier or by 20 4 8 So c 0 needs to fall from 160 to 152 d The change in c 0 8 is less than the change in GDP 20 due to the multiplier 5 a Y increases by 1 1 c 1 b Y decreases by c 1 1 c1 c The answers differ because spending affects demand directly but taxes affect demand through consumption and the propensity to consume is less than one d The change in Y equals 1 1 c 1 c1 1 c1 1 Balanced budget changes in G and T are not macroeconomically neutral e The propensity to consume has no effect because the balanced budget tax increase aborts the multiplier process Y and T both increase by on unit so disposable income and hence consumption do not change 6 a The tax rate is less than one b Y c 0 c1YD I G implies Y 1 1 c 1 c1t1 c0 c1t0 I G c The multiplier 1 1 c 1 c1t1 b2 d1 d2 Since a decrease in G reduces output the condition under which a decrease in G increases investment is b 15 repeated substitution implies t 5 t 5 4 So 10 28 15 48 f Inflation expectations will again be forever wrong This is unlikely 4 a t t 1 0 1 2ut t 1 2 t 2 t 1 4 t 2 6 t 3 8 b t 0 5 t 0 5 t 1 0 1 2ut or t t 1 4 4 c t 4 t 1 8 t 2 12 t 3 16 d As indexation increases low unemployment leads to a larger increase in inflation over time 5 a A higher cost of production means a higher markup b u n 0 08 0 1 2 Thus the natural rate of unemployment increases from 5 to 6 as increases from 20 to 40 6 a Yes The average rate of unemployment is down In addition the unemployment rate is at a historical low and inflation has not risen b The natural rate of unemployment has probably decreased 7 An equation that seems to fit well is t t 1 6 ut which implies a natural rate of approximately 6 8 The relationships imply a lower natural rate in the more recent period CHAPTER 9 1 a False b True c True d False e False f True g True h True 2 a The unemployment rate will increase by 1 per year when g 0 5 Unemployment will increase unless the growth rate exceeds the sum of productivity growth and labor force growth b We need growth of 4 25 per year for each of the next four years c Okun s law is likely to become u t ut 1 0 4 gyt 5 3 a u n 5 b g yt 3 gmt gyt t 11 c u g yt gmt t 1 8 5 3 11 t 4 9 7 3 t 1 4 5 13 17 t 2 4 5 3 7 4 a t t 1 ut 05 u t ut 1 4 gmt t 03 b t 6 3 ut 8 7 t 1 1 ut 1 10 3 c u 5 g y 3 3 5 a See text for full answer Gradualism reduces need for large policy swings with effects that are difficult to predict but immediate reduction may be more credible and encourage rapid favorable changes in inflation expectations On the other hand the staggering of wage decisions suggests that if the policy is credible a gradual disinflation is the option consistent with no change in the unemployment rate b Not clear probably fast disinflation depending on the features in c 5 c Some important features the degree of indexation the nature of the wage setting process and the initial rate of inflation 6 a u n K 2 sacrifice ratio 5 b t 10 t 1 8 t 2 6 t 3 4 t 4 2 c 5 years sacrifice ratio 5 point years of excess unemployment 10 percentage point reduction in inflation 5 d t 7 5 t 1 4 125 t 2 1 594 3 years of higher unemployment for a reduction of 10 sacrifice ratio 0 3 e t 1 f Take measures to enhance credibility 7 a Inflation will start increasing b It should let unemployment increase to its new higher natural rate Chapter 10 1 a True b True c True d False e False f False g True h Uncertain 2 a Example France 1 042 48 5 150 37 1 k Germany 43 4 k Japan 76 5 k UK 22 5 k U S 31 7 k b 2 4 c yes 3 a 5 000 b 2 500 pesos c 500 d 1 000 e Mexican standard of living relative to the U S exchange rate method 1 10 PPP method 1 5 4 a Y 63 b Y doubles c Yes d Y N K N 1 2 e K N 4 implies Y N 2 K N 8 implies Y N 2 83 Output less than doubles f No g No In part f we are looking at what happens to output when we increase capital only not capital and labor in equal proportion There are decreasing returns to capital h Yes 5 The United States was making the most important technical advances However the other countries were able to make up much of their technological gap by importing the technologies developed in the United States and hence have higher technological progress 6 Convergence for the France Belgium and Italy no convergence for the second set of countries Chapter 11 1 a Uncertain True if saving includes public and private saving False if saving only includes private saving b False c Uncertain d Uncertain e True f False g False 2 a No 1 The Japanese rate of growth is not so high anymore 2 If the Japanese saving rate has always been high then this cannot explain the difference between the rate of growth in Japan and the US in the last 40 or 50 years 3 If the Japanese saving rate has been higher than it used to be then this can explain some of the high Japanese growth The contribution of high saving to growth in Japan should however come to an end 3 After a decade higher growth rate After five decades growth rate back to normal higher level of output per worker 4 a Higher saving Higher output per worker b Same output per worker Higher output per capita 5 a Yes b Yes c Yes d Y N K N 1 3 e In steady state sf K N K N which given the production function in part d implies K N s 3 2 f Y N s 1 2 g Y N 2 h Y N 2 1 2 6 a 1 b 1 c K N 35 Y N 71 d Using equation 11 3 the evolution of K N is 0 9 0 82 0 75 7 a K N s 2 2 Y N s 4 b C N s 1 s 4 c e Y N increases with s C N increases until s 5 then decreases CHAPTER 12 1 a True b False c True d False e True f False g True h Uncertain i False 2 a Lower growth in poorer countries Higher growth in rich countries b Increase in R a small decrease in growth d A decrease in the appropriability of drug research A drop in the development of new drugs Lower technological progress and lower growth 3 See discussion in section 12 2 4 Examples will vary Weakening patent protection would accelerate diffusion but might also discourage R Year 2 3960 b Real GDP 3300 output growth 10 c 20 d Real GDP Worker 30 in both years productivity growth is zero e Real GDP 3990 output growth 33 f 0 8 g Proper measurement implies real gdp worker 36 3 in year 2 With improper measurement productivity growth would be 21 percentage points lower and inflation 21 points higher 6 a Both lead to an initial decrease in growth b Only the first leads to a permanent decrease in growth 7 a K AN s g A gN 2 1 Y AN 1 1 2 g Y AN 0 gY N 4 gY 6 b K AN 4 5 2 Y AN 4 5 g Y AN 0 gY N 8 gY 10 c K AN 4 5 2 Y AN 4 5 g Y AN 0 gY N 4 gY 10 People are better off in case a Given any set of initial values the level of technology is the same in cases a and c but the level of capital per effective worker is higher at every point in time in case a Thus since Y N A Y AN A K AN 1 2 output per worker is always higher in case a 8 There is a slowdown in growth and the rate of technological progress in the modern period Japan s growth rate of technological progress is higher because it is catching up to the U S level of technology Not all of the difference in growth rates of output per worker is attributable to the difference in rates of technological progress A big part is attributable to the difference in rates of growth of capital per worker 9 a Probably affects A Think of climate b Affects H c Affects A Strong protection tends to encourage more R real profits are easier to forecast b Nominal The payments are nominal c Nominal If lease payments are in nominal terms as is typical 3 a Exact r 1 04 1 02 1 1 96 Approximation r 04 02 2 b 3 60 4 c 5 48 8 4 a No Otherwise nobody would hold bonds Money would be more appealing it pays at least a zero nominal interest rate and can be used for transactions b Yes The real interest rate will be negative if expected inflation exceeds the nominal interest rate Even so the real interest rate on bonds which pay nominal interest will exceed the real interest rate on money which does not pay nominal interest by the nominal interest rate c A negative real interest rate makes borrowing very attractive and leads to a large demand for investment 5 a The discount rate is the interest rate So EPDV are i 2 000 1 25 under either interest rate and ii 1 2 2 000 under either interest rate b The interest rate does not enter the calculation Hence you prefer ii to i since 20 100 000 b Break even EPDV 100 000 c Do not buy EPDV 78 260 P P and E E 0 then e c High unemployment low inflation e d Yes if one looks at the first two years of each administration not just the first e Unemployment equal to the natural rate high inflation This is because expected inflation is very high so e 6 a If the Republicans cut military spending the Democrats get 1 if they cut welfare but 3 if they do not So they will not cut welfare The Republicans will get 2 b If the Republicans do not cut military spending the Democrats get 2 if they cut welfare but only 1 if they do not So they will not cut welfare The Republicans will get 1 c Given the answers above the Republicans do better when they do not cut military spending so they will not cut The Democrats will not cut either The two parties are locked in a bad equilibrium They could make a deal both vote for cuts If they do they will both be better off Chapter 26 1 a False b False Uncertain c False d False Uncertain e False f True Uncertain 2 a Demand for M1 falls while demand for M2 is unchanged People shift funds from savings accounts to time deposits b Demand for M1 increases as people transfer funds from money market funds to checking accounts Demand for M2 remains unchanged c Shift in the composition of M1 and consequently M2 as people hold more currency and make fewer trips to the bank while holding smaller checking account balances d The demand for M2 increases as the benefit of holding government securities falls 3 a 4 0 4 14 10 4 b 4 1 0 25 0 3 14 1 0 25 10 10 5 10 0 5 c Yes given the deductibility of nominal mortgage interest payments in the United States 4 Probably not These two facts suggest that there has been a shift between M2 and M1 and the demand for money has shifted 5 Increase in H through open market operations or lending through the discount window Decrease in reserve requirements Decrease in c the proportion of currency kept by people by making checking accounts more attractive 6 In principle yes Investment tax credits which give tax breaks to firms that invest can help increase investment However f