公司理财-chapter-17ppt课件.ppt

Chapter17 Long termfinancialplanning 1 Objectives Describethecontentsandusesofafinancialplan Constructasimplefinancialplanningmodel Estimatetheeffectofgrowthontheneedforexternalfinancing 2 Content Whatisfinancialplanning FinancialplanningmodelsPlannersbewareExternalfinancingandgrowth 3 Mostfirmstakefinancialplanningseriouslyanddevoteconsiderableresourcestoit Thetangibleproductoftheplanningprocessisafinancialplandescribingthefirm sfinancialstrategyandprojectingitsfutureconsequencesbymeansofproformabalancesheets incomestatements andstatementsofsourcesandusesoffunds 4 Theplanestablishesfinancialgoalsandisabenchmarkforevaluatingsubsequentperformance Usuallyitalsodescribeswhythatstrategywaschosenandhowtheplan sfinancialgoalsaretobeachieved Planningismorethanforecasting becauseforecastingdealswiththemostlikelyoutcome Plannersalsohavetothinkabouteventsthatmayoccureventhoughtheyareunlikely 5 Inlong range orstrategic planning theplanninghorizonisusually5yearsormore Thiskindofplanningdealswithaggregatedecisions Theplanistheendresult Theprocessthatproducestheplanisvaluableinitsownright Planningforcesthefinancialmanagertoconsiderthecombinedeffectsofallthefirm sinvestmentandfinancingdecisions Thisisimportantbecausethesedecisionsinteractandshouldnotbemadeindependently 6 Financialplan 财务计划Planninghorizon 计划期Proformabalancesheet 预计资产负债表Strategicplanning 战略规划 7 Content Whatisfinancialplanning FinancialplanningmodelsPlannersbewareExternalfinancingandgrowth 8 Componentsofafinancialplanningmodel Financialplansincludethreecomponents inputs theplanningmodel andoutputs 9 Percentageofsalesmodels Percentageofsalesmodels planningmodelinwhichsalesforecastsarethedrivingvariablesandmostothervariablesareproportionaltosales 10 10 Balancingitemofplug variablethatadjuststomaintaintheconsistencyofafinancialplan 11 Financialmodelsensureconsistencybetweengrowthassumptionsandfinancingplans buttheydonotidentifythebestfinancingplan 12 Animprovedmodel 13 NowsupposethatyouareaskedtoprepareproformafinancialstatementsforExecutiveFruitfor2006 Youaretoldtoassumethat 1 salesandoperatingcostsareexpectedtobeup10 over2005 2 interestrateswillremainattheircurrentlevel 3 thefirmwillsticktoitstraditionaldividendpolicyofpayingouttwo thirdsofearnings and 4 Executivewillneed10 morefixedassetsandnetworkingcapitalnextyeartosupportthehighersalesvolume 14 Theresultingfirst stageproformacalculations Thesecalculationsshowwhatwouldhappenifthesizeofthefirmincreasesalongwithprojectedsales butatthispreliminarystagetheplandoesnotspecifyaparticularmixofnewsecurityissues 15 Thesecond stageproformabalancesheetiftherequiredfundsareraisedbyissuing 64 000ofdebt Therefore debtistreatedasthebalancingitem Noticethatwhiletheplanrequiresthefirmtospecifyafinancingplanconsistentwithitsgrowthprojections itdoesnotprovideguidanceastothebestfinancingmix 16 Projectedfinancialstatement 预计财务报表Percentageofsalesmodels 销售百分比模型Balancingitemofplug 平衡项目或倒轧数 17 Content Whatisfinancialplanning FinancialplanningmodelsPlannersbewareExternalfinancingandgrowth 18 PitfallsinmodeldesignToosimpleforpracticalapplicationTheassumptioninpercentageofsalesmodelAssumethatbothfixedassetsandworkingcapitalincreaseproportionatelywithsale However inreality assetsmaynotbeproportionaltosales 19 TheroleoffinancialplanningmodelsAlthoughtheyhelptotracethroughtheconsequencesofalternativeplans theydonottellyouwhichplanisbest Planningmodeltellsushowmuchmoneythefirmmustraisetofundtheplannedgrowth butitcannottelluswhetherthatgrowthcontributestoshareholdervalue Norcanittelluswhetherthecompanyshouldraisethecashbyissuingnewdebtorequity 20 Content Whatisfinancialplanning FinancialplanningmodelsPlannersbewareExternalfinancingandgrowth 21 Supposein2005ExecutiveFruitendedtheyearwith 1 000 000offixedassetsandnetworkingcapital andithad 2 000 000ofsales Thecompanyforecaststhatsalesin2006willincreaseby 200 000 Therefore iftheratioofnetassetstosalesremainsconstant assetsin2006willneedtoriseby 50 200 000 100 000 Partofthisincreasecanbefinancedbyretainedearnings whichin2006are 36 000 Sotheamountofexternalfinancingneededis 22 Internalgrowthrate maximumrateofgrowthwithoutexternalfinancing 23 Atlowgrowthrates thefirmgeneratesmorefundsthannecessaryforexpansion Inthissense itsrequirementforfurtherexternalfundsisnegative Itmaychoosetouseitssurplustopayoffsomeofitsdebtorbuybackitsstock Asthefirm sprojectedgrowthrateincreases morefundsareneededtopayforthenecessaryinvestments Forhighratesofgrowththefirmmustissuenewsecuritiestopayfornewinvestments 24 Wheretheslopinglinecrossesthehorizontalaxis externalfinancingiszero Thefirmisgrowingasfastaspossiblewithou